Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD loses the ground again
6/15/2016

Yesterday's Forex trading session has been noted by severe depreciation of European currency against the American dollar. The EURUSD has lost more than a figure: minimums of the day was going under the 12th figure, to 1.1180/90.

During this time the four-hour Ichimoku indicator also has begun its reconstruction. The cloud which has critically narrowed its range in the descending direction also can join the Dead Cross created by Tenkan and Kijun lines.

At the same time, it is necessary to consider that Chinkou Span is located in the oversold area. Therefore the correctional recovery to the Tenkan line is possible today.

Technical levels: support – 1.1200, 1.1150; resistance – 1.1240/60.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1240; SL — 1.1260; TP1 — 1.1150; TP2 — 1.1115.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9230

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: two "V-Bottoms" are calling an upward correction
6/15/2016

The price has faced a support at 1.1179, which led to the local upward movement towards a resistance at 1.1219. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance area between the level at 1.1242 and the Moving Average lines. If a pullback happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to see a downward movement in the direction of the uptrend’s support area.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the bearish movement has found a support at 1.1187. So, we’ve got a correction in progress, which is likely going to move on towards a resistance at 1.1242 – 1.1255. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to set up a decline once again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9232

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls are ready to deliver a local correction
6/15/2016

There’s a support at 1.4089, which has stopped bears for a while. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4227 – 1.4248. If sellers push off from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.4039 – 1.4003.

We’ve got a local flat in progress between the nearest support at 1.4089 and the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4227 – 1.4248 during the day. However, this possible movement will be just a correction, so bears can well bring a new low afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9233

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tweezers" has stopped bearish rally. Likely, for a while.
6/15/2016

There’re a “Tweezers” and a “Hammer” at the local low, which both have been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to take through the “Window” paces once again. If a pullback happens afterwards, bears will probably try to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has reached the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a possible “Tweezers” pattern in progress. If it confirms, an upward correction becomes possible.

The pair has been falling down since a “Harami” arrived at the local high. However, we’ve got a “Tower” and a “Tweezers” at the last low, so the price is likely going to get a resistance on the 34 or 55 Moving Average lines. If so, the market is probably going to decline until new bullish patterns form.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9234

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" could force the bullish correction
6/15/2016

We’ve got a bullish “Harami” at the last low, which has been confirmed, so there’s a local correction in progress. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line, which can reverse the price movement into the bearish direction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave” at the local low, but we haven’t got a confirmation for this pattern. So, bears are probably going to deliver a new low afterwards.

There’re a “High Wave” and a “Harami” at the local low, which both have been confirmed. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, so bears are still in the game. However, if the nearest local “Window” acts as a support, we could see a new local high very soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9235

 

[riki143]

GBP/CAD reached sell target 1.8200
6/15/2016

GBP/CAD reached sell target 1.8200
Next buy target - 1.8500
GBP/CAD recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support levels 1.8110 (which stopped the earlier impulse waves 3 and (5) in April, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below) and 1.8200 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - GBP/CAD can be expected to correct up further in the active minor correction 4 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.8500 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse wave from May).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9236

 

[riki143]

CAD/JPY reversed from strong support level 82.30
6/15/2016

CAD/JPY reversed from strong support level 82.30
Next buy target - 85.00
CAD/JPY recently reversed up from the support zone surrounding the strong support level 82.30 (which had previously stopped and reversed the previous waves (B), (1), B and 1, as can be seen from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). The support zone near the support level 82.30 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous primary ABC correction ② from the middle of January.

CAD/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 85.00 (which stopped the previous waves A, (b) and (2), as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9237

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF & SNB Libor Interest Rate: Another lower reaction?
6/16/2016

Today in Switzerland at 07:30 GMT will be released the Libor interest rate decision and SNB Chariman Thomas Jordan will speak at same time. It's expected that the current negative rates remains unchanged (-0.75% v -0.75%) on this quarterly meeting and the stance from Swiss National Bank to intervene in foreign exchange market when they think it should be necessary will be something that, at least in the short-term, cannot be changed as well.

The technical picture for USD/CHF at daily chart is showing some interesting patterns, as the pair has been reacting to the downside when the SNB meeting is done and as you may see on March 17th, it consolidated below the 200 SMA. Currently, it's facing a strong support zone around the 0.9586 level and while the Fed didn't push lower the pair (CHF strong) enough during wednesday's session, a breakout below the price zone 0.9586 towards the 0.9480 level in a mid-term basis cannot be discarded at this stage yet. However, if Jordan's words are very dovish, then it could rebound to the 50 SMA (0.9742).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9238

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" points to the deeper upward correction

The price has faced a support at 1.1179, so we’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1326 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to see a decline towards a support at 1.1242.

Bulls have found a local resistance at 1.1282, which led to form the current “Pennant” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.1321 – 1.1325 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to catch a support on the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9241

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" entered the market into the correction phase
6/16/2016

The price has found a support at 1.4089, which brought a “V-Bottom” pattern. So, the pair reached a resistance at 1.4227 afterwards. It’s likely that the market is going to test the last low during the day. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to see an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.4248.

We’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which has been confirmed, so the price achieved the 34 Moving Average. Currently, there’s a flat in progress. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.4113 – 1.4089. At the same time, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will do their best to reach a resistance at 1.4227 – 1.4248.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9242

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Three Black Crows" strike an awe into bulls
6/16/2016

There’s an “Engulfing” at the local high, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, an upward movement in the direction of the last high becomes possible. As we can see on the Daliy chart, here’s a “Tweezers” in the 89 Moving Average, so if it confirms bulls will probably try to continue the current upward correction.

We’ve got a strong support by the upper “Window”, which has brought an “Engulfing” an a “Three Black Crows” patterns, both of them have a good confirmation. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 or 34 Moving Average lines in the short term. If we see a pullback from these lines, bears will have an opportunity to deliver a new low afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9250

 

[riki143]

CHF/JPY broke support level 109.00
6/16/2016

CHF/JPY broke support level 109.00
Next sell target - 107.00
CHF/JPY recently broke sharply through the support level 109.00 – which previously reversed the price sharply at the start of June as you can see from the daily CHF/JPY chart below. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the extended intermediate downward impulse wave (C) from May of last year.

CHF/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 107.00 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). Strong resistance now stands at 109.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9251

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY broke pivotal support level 105.80
6/16/2016

USD/JPY broke pivotal support level 105.80
Next sell target - 102.40
USD/JPY continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which is a part of the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the end of May. The price earlier broke through the pivotal support level 105.80 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of May). The breakout of the support level 105.80 greatly intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 102.40 (target price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 105.80.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9252

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears wipe the floor with bulls
6/16/2016

There’s a “Hammer” at the achieved “Window”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, an upward correction is likely going to begin, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance line. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has reached the lower support. Moreover, the last black candle has a long shadow, so bulls are probably arriving to set up an upward correction.

We’ve got a confirmed “Harami” and a “Three White Soldiers” at the last low. Currently, here’s a possible “Engulfing” in progress. Therefore, a local downward movement becomes possible, but bulls will probably try to continue the upward correction, which was started yesterday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9253

 

[riki143]

GOLD probably overcomes the level at 1312.50
6/16/2016

The price continues to test new marks, and has already achieved key level 8/8 (1312.50). No breakdowns STH4, which indicates the strength of the bulls. Despite growing STH4 and STD1, the expected pullback to the area of STD1 can happen now. The key level is 8/8, the breakdown of which at least one third of the width of the levels will lead to a further increase to the level + 1/8 (1328.13). The advantage is to give a bullish scenario, ambushed the breakdown 8/8.

Trade recommendation:

Buy – 1318.00; sell – 1312.00; tp – 1328.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9254

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears run smack into the "Window"
6/17/2016

We’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, so the nearest support line is still in the game. Moreover, it’s likely to have any bullish patterns on this line. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, but both of them haven’t got a confirmation. If it finally arrives, the market is probably going to achieve the resistance nearby.

There’s a bullish “High Wave” at the last minimum, which has been confirmed. However, we’ve got a confirmed “Hanging Man” at the local high, which means that the nearest support line is likely going to be reached in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9270

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD corrected from round support level 1.4000
6/17/2016

GBP/USD corrected from round support level 1.4000
Next buy target - 1.4350
GBP/USD recently corrected up sharply from the support zone near the round support level 1.4000 (which stopped the (B)-wave of the previous primary ABC correction ② from the end of February and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier impulse waves 3 and (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from the start of May.

GBP/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the nearby resistance level 1.4350 (former strong support level which reversed earlier waves (1) and 1).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9273

 

[riki143]

NZD / USD is bullish direction
6/17/2016

The pair is in the corridor between the levels 6/8 (0.6958) and 8/8 (0.7080). Securing above STH4, as well as a rebound from the 6/8 are good arguments in favor of growth to the area of level + 1/8 (0.7141). It should be noted that trend is bullish, a rebound from the 8/8 level has not been completed breakdown 6/8. Nevertheless, it is advisable to wait for the breakdown of 8/8, after which accomplishes possible purchase. Unlikely breakdown STH4 will lead to a continuation of the flat short-term, that is, to the level of 6/8.

Trade recommendation:

Buy – 0.7100; sl – 0.7065; tp – 0.7140.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9274

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

The main topic for the British pound is the European Union membership vote on Thursday. Last week the referendum campaign was suspended for 3 days after the murder of Jo Cox, who was calling for Britain to remain in the EU. At the start of this week fears of Brexit declined. The latest opinion polls showed that the “remain” camp is ahead of Brexit supporters, though the lead remains narrow. Remember that potential Brexit may offer an opportunity of big gains on Forex, but the risks will be also very high.

Last week GBP/USD fell almost to 1.4000 before reversing up on Thursday and opening this Monday with a gap to the upside and rising to 1.4650. Data from CFTC showed that traders reduced their net short GBP positions by almost half in the week, which ended on June 14 – it means that speculators started to return to pound even before the market’s mood became more optimistic at the end of last week.

British pound had fallen a lot this year versus other major currencies. If the UK chooses to stay in the EU, well see a relief rally, especially against US dollar and Japanese yen. In case of no Brexit GBP/USD will rally to 1.4865, 1.5000 and 1.5130 (38.2% Fibonacci of 2014-2016 decline). On the other hand, Brexit would provoke a fall to 1.3680 (2001 low) and further towards 1.3000. Pound’s decline on Brexit will be bigger than its advance in case of no Brexit.

All in all, we remain on the positive side about the pound and think that the “remain” camp will win the referendum. Still sterling will remain volatile in the coming days as new opinion polls will be released.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9290

 

[riki143]

US dollar: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

The US dollar index opened the week with a gap to the downside at 93.70 after it failed to settle above 95.00 last week. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 0.25%-0.50%. The central bank also cut its outlook for the economy and the future path of interest rates. Dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that the US needs only 1 rate hike through 2018 on Friday also weighed on the greenback.

The Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify to Congress on monetary policy on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market players will expect comments on potential Brexit and some hints on the timing of the US interest rate hikes. America will also release housing data on Wednesday and Thursday as well as durable goods orders on Friday.

Yellen probably won’t give many hints about the US monetary policy until the future of Britain in the European Union remains uncertain. If Britain remains in the EU, the greenback will rise against Japanese yen and Swiss franc, but initially lose to Australian and New Zealand’s dollar. In case of Brexit the move will be opposite with big gains of the US dollar against commodity currencies.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9296