Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD & Draghi's speech from Brussels: Will the upside be limited?
6/9/2016

Today at 07:00 GMT the ECB's president Mario Draghi will speak at Brussels Economic Forum and investors will be aware of the tone that the speech will have, after Draghi decided to keep unchanged the interest rates for June and the European Central Bank started to buy corporate bonds, in an effort to revive the economic growth in Eurozone. Nothing great is expected in today Draghi's words, as it's expected that he still ask to governments to do more in favor of the region's growth.

However, as we saw during last ECB press conference held during last week, market could see some volatility. The H4 chart of EUR/USD shows that the pair is facing a strong resistance around the 1.1415 level and we highlighted with yellow color the move that last Draghi's speech produced on the major pair. A hawkish-than-expected speech will push the EUR/USD to break the 1.1415 zone, toward next resistance at the 1.1484 level, while a dovish or “nothing new” speech from Draghi could trigger a pullback to test the support level of 1.1342, which is very close to the 200 SMA.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9177

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" led to the new high, but bulls are so tired
6/9/2016

The price has found a resistance at 1.1419, so bears are ready to return into the market. The main target for a coming correction is a support at 1.1372 – 1.1357. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.1446 – 1.1479.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the movement in a range of the last “Pennant” was finally ended by the fast bullish rally. However, the price faced a resistance at 1.1419 afterwards, which entered the market into a consolidation phase. So, the pair is likely going to decline towards a support on the 34 Moving Average, which is strong enough to reverse the price movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1446.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9180

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for June 10
6/9/2016

There was at last a correction of the markets on Thursday: Brent oil returned from 52.80 to 51.80 as traders took profit on their bullish positions, while the US dollar index recovered from 93.50 to 94.00. American unemployment claims came out better than expected. Preliminary consumer sentiment data for June is due at 14:00 GMT om Friday. The market’s risk appetite declined. Global stocks declined for the first time in 6 days. One of the reasons is the upcoming Brexit referendum, which will take place on June 23. There was also news that billionaire investor George Soros sold stocks and bought gold preparing for difficult times for the world’s economy.

Japanese yen strengthened as traders increased demand for the safe haven assets. USD/JPY declined, but is still trying to stick to 106.55. A daily close below this mark will open the way down to 106.00 (200-week MA) and 105.55 (May low). All in all, 200-week MA should slow down the pair’s decline. Resistance is at 107.65 and 108.90. For EUR/JPY a close below 120.80 will be a long-term bearish signal. AUD/USD recoiled down from the 55-day MA in the 0.7475 and may be subject to a deeper correction down (targets: 0.7400, 0.7380, 0.7300).

EUR/USD erased the work of the bulls during the past several days and fell to this week’s low at 1.1305. The ECB's President Mario Draghi has reiterated the need to advance in structural reforms in the euro region and underlined that the central bank will not allow consumer prices to remain below target for longer than is avoidable. We may see more of correction down with the pair visiting 1.1215. Resistance is at 1.1415 and 1.1465. German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will speak at 07:00 GMT. GBP/USD keeps trading in a broad range between 1.4700 and 1.4350. We expect the pair to continue fluctuating around 1.4500.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9189

 

[riki143]

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[riki143]

GBP/USD: Uncertainty ahead Brexit referendum still weighs on moves
6/13/2016

We're one week ahead approximately of Brexit referendum, which will take in place on June 23th, and it seems the odds are favoring to the “Leave” option, according to the most recent polls released by media and independent agencies. The latest headline comes from a poll published during the Friday's US session by ORB Independent, which favors the Brexit with 55% of preference, against a 45% which wants to stay at European Union. After the poll was released, GBP/USD had a decline of more than 100 pips, closing the week at 1.4253, which is telling us that the Brexit sentiment is a strong catalyst that drives the pair nowadays.

The technical picture at H4 chart is calling for a possible double cycle development on the Cable, as it reached the 100% Fibonacci extension (1.4297) from the May 3th highs (1.4685), related with the May 16th lows (1.4331) and May 26th highs (1.4738). However, pair is still doing declines below the 100%, but it hasn't achieved in break the 1.4193 level yet. If GBP/USD does a rebound at current area, then it could test the 1.4392 in the near term, while a breakout below 1.4193, will open the doors for a fall toward 1.4025 level (161.8% Fibonacci extension).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9201

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for June 13-19
6/13/2016

US dollar index recovered by the end of the past week after dipping to 93.40 on Wednesday, the lowest level since May 6. There was a daily bullish engulfing formed on the daily chart – a signal that dollar may correct a bit higher.

The greenback managed to strengthen mildly against the British pound and the euro, which were hit by the Brexit concerns. At the same time, higher oil prices made American currency weaken against commodity currencies.

This week the market’s attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve’s meeting that will take place on Wednesday. The possibility of a rate hike in June is now estimated by markets as less than 4%, while the odds of July move are seen as only a little over 25%. After weak May nonfarm payrolls report the rate hike on June 15 really is extremely unlikely. Yet, the meeting will be very closely watched, as the Fed’s members will update their forecasts for the Fed’s fund rate. So far, Janet Yellen hasn’t said no to 2 rate hikes this year, and the Fed could stick to this forecast saying that everything will depend on the economic data. If the Fed leaves 2 rate hikes on the table, USD will broadly strengthen. However, if the Fed’s outlook suggests one rate hike this year, USD will decline sharply.

Other important US releases include core retail sales on Tuesday, producer prices on Wednesday, consumer inflation on Thursday and building permits on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9202

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for June 13-19
6/13/2016

The pair recovered 61.8% of May decline and tested levels above 1.1400. During the first part of the past week the euro benefited from the weaker dollar. However, in the second half of the week the single currency lost its bullish momentum.

The ECB began buying corporate bonds on Wednesday. The fact that the central bank didn’t start with highest-rated securities, but purchased bonds from companies, which had investment-grade rating from only one rating agency, showed investors that the ECB President Mario Draghi is serious about the region’s monetary stimulus. Another negative factor for the euro is uncertainty associated with Brexit vote, and this factor will remain in place until the British referendum on the EU membership that will take place on June 23.

The pair could be in consolidative mood before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday. Technically it looks like we’ll see deeper correction to 1.1200, but for the euro to go below this point there should be good news from the United States. Its further direction will depend largely on whether the Fed reduces its rate forecasts for this year or not. Support is at 1.1215, 1.1140 and 1.1100. Resistance is at 1.1415, 1.1460 and 1.1500.

In the European economic calendar other important events include industrial production release on Tuesday, the publication of trade balance on Wednesday and the final inflation readings on Thursday. The ECB president Mario Draghi will have another chance to make an impact on the market on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9203

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for June 13-19
6/13/2016

GBP/USD traded sideways during the past week between 1.4650 and 1.4300. Volatility in this pair is created by various news about the Brexit opinion polls. On June 23 British people will vote whether they want the UK to remain in the European Union or not. For now, opinion surveys tend to show different results. Given the uncertainty many players pull their money out of Britain and pound.

Decline below 1.4300 will open the way down to 1.4200 and probably 1.4100. Resistance is at 1.4480 and 1.4560.

Pay attention to the UK inflation data on Tuesday and labor market figures on Wednesday. On Thursday Britain will release retail sales statistics. In addition, there will be a meeting of the Bank of England. The central bank will leave monetary policy unchanged. There’s a risk of dovish comments from British central bank.

Also watch the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday: although the rate hike is not expected, traders will watch whether the Fed changes its rate forecast for this year. If it does, GBP/USD will find support. If it doesn’t, bearish pressure will intensify and we’ll see bigger declines.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9204

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for June 13-19
6/13/2016

USD/JPY remained close to this year’s minimums and this is not welcome by the Bank of Japan. Yet, as Japan’s prime minister Abe has delayed sales tax hike thus lifting the heavy weight from the nation’s economy, the possibility that the BOJ will expand monetary stimulus has declined.

This week there will be meetings of both the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Thursday. As for the Fed, it is very unlikely to raise the interest rate next week, but the meeting and the press conference will still make the news as we’ll hear whether the Fed’s forecast for 2 rate hikes this year has changed. No action from the Bank of Japan should keep USD/JPY under pressure. Also note that there’s demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven because of concerns about the global economy and approaching Brexit. China will release industrial production figures on Sunday and this will determine investor’s mood at the start of the week.

The pair is supported by the rising 200-week MA at 105.95. Next support is at 105.55 (May low) and 105.00 (psychological level, where many market players will expect interventions from Japanese monetary authorities). Resistance is at 108.90 and 110.90.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9205

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for June 13-19
6/13/2016

AUD/USD tested 0.7500 area during the past week. Australian dollar was supported as the Reserve bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, iron ore prices recovered and the expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike at the next meetings declined.

However, many experts still think that the RBA will have to cut rates in August. The latest data from China aren’t very encouraging, and the release of the nation’s industrial production and retail sales figures on Sunday will be a test for higher-yielding currencies, such as Aussie.

The pair has retraced 50% of April-May decline and ran into strong resistance formed by the previous lows of the March-April triple top, as well as the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Potential correction targets include 0.7300 and 0.7260.

In Australia’s economic calendar next week pay attention to the nation’s labor market figures on Thursday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9206

 

[riki143]

Key option levels: June 13-19
6/13/2016


EUR/USD

• The closest resistance levels: 1.1462; 1.1523; 1.1572; 1.1611
• The closest support levels: 1.1218; 1.1153; 1.1103; 1.1075
• The range of upward risks: 1.1462-1.1611
• The range of downside risks: 1.1218-1.0975


Bulls could not hold the initiative of Euro. In the medium term, the advantage is retained by the bears (the medium-term players target - 1.0850). A breakdown below 1.1218 level will open the way to 1.1153 and 1.1103. Alternative scenario: moving above 1.1462 could be considered as a signal to buy the pair with the target points of 1.1523 and 1.1572.

USD/JPY

• The closest resistance levels: 108.27; 108.72; 109.43; 109.91
• The closest support levels: 106.25; 105.53; 105.19; 104.11
• The range of upward risks: 108.27-111.92
• The range of downside risks: 106.25-102.08


USD/JPY cannot get out of the bear trap. The medium-term risks are still displaced to the downside. Market makers have formed the strongest Put-level of 90.88; its main purpose is restriction of quotations growth. A break down to the level of 106.25 will create preconditions for a fall to 105.53 and 105.19 levels. Buying will be relevant above 108.27, targets - 108.72 and 109.43.

USD/CAD

• The closest resistance levels: 1.2922/50; 1.3002; 1.3062; 1.3127
• The closest support levels: 1.2649(36?); 1.2555; 1.2505; 1.2447
• The range of upward risks: 1.2922-1.3435
• The range of downside risks: 1.2649-1.2464


USD/CAD may develop a correction this week. The medium-term outlook for the pair got neutral. Reliable buying should be considered above 1.2922, target points - 1.3002 and 1.3062. Sellers are activated below 1.2649, players’ targets are connected with 1.2555 and 1.2505 levels.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9208

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for June 14
6/14/2016

Forex market started a new week in a risk aversion mood because of the Brexit risk and the mass killing in Orlando, United States. Such environment was negative for the euro and British pound, but positive for Japanese yen. Industrial production and retail sales data from China matched the forecasts, and the release didn’t have a big impact on the market. The new week is also market by meeting of many central banks: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England.

Brent crude oil returned down to $50 a barrel area from last week’s high of 52.86 as the number of oil rigs in the US rose by 3 to 328 in the previous week. US dollar index opened with a gap up at 94.80. but then closed the gap declining to 94.50. America will release retail sales figures at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday: a slowdown in the indicator’s growth is expected.

After last week’s reversal to the downside EUR/USD remain under pressure. Support is at 1.1195 and 1.1140. It will be difficult for the bears to pull the single currency below 1.1100. On Tuesday the euro area will release industrial production and employment change data at 09:00 GMT, but the pair will be driven by the market’s risk sentiment and US economic data. The pair will likely remain consolidation ahead of the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday.

USD/JPY is trying to test levels below 200-week MA in the 106.00 area. Next support is at 105.40 and 104.55. According to the consensus forecast, analysts don’t expect the Bank of Japan to act on Thursday, but the majority of them thinks that the BOJ will make such step in July. All in all, the pair remains under negative pressure as long as its trading below 108.90.

GBP/USD fell to 1.4115 after closing below the February-April support line on Friday, when Orb/Independent newspaper poll showed 55% of voters want the country to leave the EU, and 45% support the remain camp. The uncertainty remains, so Brexit fears will remain the main driver of GBP/USD, and this driver will keep pulling the pair down. The UK will release inflation figures at 08:30 GMT. Support is at 1.4070/35, while the short-term recovery may extend to resistance at 1.4300 and 1.4420.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9217

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Harami" urges bears to deliver a new low
6/14/2016

The price has been falling down since an “Evening Star” formed at the last high. The last candles are bearish, so we haven’t got any reversal patterns so far. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a black candle in progress, but it’s possible to see any bullish pattern on the support line nearby. If so, an upward correction becomes possible.

There’s a “High Wave” at the local low, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed. Moreover, we’ve got a bearish “Harami”, which is likely going to be confirmed shortly. So, if that's the case a new low is coming soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9226

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears with the "Two Black Crows" pushing the price down
6/14/2016

There’s a “Hanging Man” at the local high, which has been confirmed. We haven’t got any reversal patterns so far and that makes bears absolutely free to reach the nearest support line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Doji” and a “Two Black Crows” at the last maximum, so the market is likely going to get a support on the 34 & 55 Moving Average lines.

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Hanging Man” on the upper “Window”, which both have been strongly confirmed by the current decline. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to move on until any reversal bullish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9225

 

[riki143]

GBP/CHF reached sell target 1.3800
6/14/2016

GBP/CHF reached sell target 1.3800
Next sell target - 1.3400
GBP/CHF recently broke though the support level 1.3800, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of May (which started when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone surrounding the resistance level 1.4600).

GBP/CHF is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the strong support level 1.3400 (low of the previous primary ABC correction ② and the forecast price calculated for the completion of the active wave (2)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9224

 

[riki143]

GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 152.00
6/14/2016

GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 152.00
Next sell targets - 148.00 and 146.00
GBP/JPY recently broke through the pivotal support level 152.00, which stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (i) at the start of April and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the start of February.

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 148.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 146.00 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9223

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: new low is coming soon
6/14/2016

The price has found a support at 1.4089, which led to the current upward correction. Nevertheless, bears are still powerful, so the market is likely going to break the last low and reach a support at 1.4089 – 1.4036 afterwards. If sellers be stopped here, an upward correction becomes possible.

We’ve got a local flat between the level at 1.4129 and the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, this consolidation is likely going to be ended by the coming bearish movement towards a support at 1.4089 – 1.4039. However, bulls will probably try to set up an upward correction later on, but only if a pullback from the next support happens.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9220

 

[riki143]

Oil prices have reached two-week low
6/14/2016

Oil prices have reached two-week low on Tuesday, as global fears about Brexit put pressure on risky assets.

According to two opinion polls published on Monday, the supporters of British exit from the EU continued to grow in number ahead of the referendum on June 23.

If the UK leaves the European Union, the recession in Europe may increase. As a result, it might put a pressure on the global economy.

On the ICE futures exchange, Brent crude oil for August delivery reached its intraday low of $49,61 per barrel, the minimum readings since June 3. At 07:55 GMT, the price is $49,68, lower by 67 cents (or 1,33%).

A day earlier in London, Brent futures fell by 19 cents (or 0.38%). Brent prices increased by almost 90% since briefly slumped below $30 per barrel in mid-February. That happened as unplanned supply disruptions from Africa eased concerns over the global oversupply.

Trader will focus on the International Energy Agency monthly report on oil market condition. Their monthly report released on Monday states that OPEC has proven the forecast of world oil reserves growth and demand increase.

WTI crude oil for delivery in July fell by 71 cents (or 1.45%) on NYMEX. WTI was traded at $48 per barrel at the beginning of session and reached its minimum of $48,11 per barrel, the lowest price since June 2.

The oil price in New York lost 19 cents (or 0.39%) on Monday. Genscape industry group reported about the WTI oil reserve growth by 525.000 barrels in Cushing, Oklahoma, last week.

Bidders now focused on the fresh weekly data on oil reserve and oil products. The American Petroleum Institute plans to release its inventory report today. The government data is expected on Wednesday and might show oil reserves reduction by 2.3 million barrels within the week ended June 10.

The U.S. oil futures rose by almost 85%, after slumped up to its 13-year minimum of $26.05 in February. The decline in the US shale oil production improved the market sentiment. However, since the prices reached the profitable level for some companies to start drilling, the number of drilling rigs may grow, and the reduction in the US production may slow down.

According to Baker Hughes, the supplier of oilfield services, the number of drilling rigs in the US increased by 3 up to 328 last week.

The growth in number of drilling rigs in the United States is fueling speculation. The oil production in the country could rebound in the coming weeks, proving oversupply concerns.

Moreover, the spread between Brent and WTI oil grades is $1,51 per barrel, compared to $1,47 at the close time of the previous session.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9227

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for June 15
6/14/2016

Risk aversion remained the main driver of the Forex market on Tuesday. US dollar index recovered as the greenback strengthened against the euro, British pound and commodity currencies. US retail sales growth slowed down in May, though the headline reading was a bit better than expected. The market will remain in the situation of uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and press conference at 18:00 and 18:30 GMT on Wednesday. The US will also release data on producer prices, Empire State manufacturing index and industrial production before the meeting results.

Japanese yen is supported by the safe haven demand: USD/JPY is actively testing levels below 106.00 (200-week MA). Downside targets lie at 105.40 and 104.55. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso once again said that the nation’s monetary authorities will act if the exchange rate moves are too rapid. There’s potential for recovery to 106.75/107.00, but at these levels selling interest will likely renew. The bigger picture for the pair will depend on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting.

British pound is moving in a volatile fashion that requires caution from traders, but the bears seem to dominate. GBP/USD twice found support in the 1.4115 area. A close below this level (even at H1) will open the way down to 1.4035/00. Resistance is at 1.4200 and 1.4300. The UK inflation data released on Thursday were weak. On Wednesday Britain will publish labor market figures at 08:30 GMT.

EUR/USD failed to return above 1.1300 and moved down, despite more positive than expected employment and industrial production statistics from the euro area, as all eyes now are on the US and the market’s risk sentiment. The pair can retest support at 1.1150/00. The decline should be limited as traders await the outcome of the Fed’s meeting.

Negative risk sentiment didn’t let AUD/USD to get higher, though the decline attracted new buyers. Support is at 0.7300 ahead of 0.7260. Increase above 0.7405 is needed to open the way to 0.7450 and 0.7500.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9228

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY ahead Fed decision: Strong demand zone in place?
6/15/2016

Today will be released the major economic data of the week at 18:00 GMT, where the US Federal Reserve will decide about to hike or hold the interest rate during this month, which remains at 0.50%. Analysts don't expect, with current US economic conditions, that the central bank will hike the rates in June. Also, in a global overview, with the Brexit referendum to take place next week, Fed could be considering to wait for results before to take any major decision.

30 minutes later, Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak and possibly, during her speech, US Dollar could take a clearer decision about its direction. At the H4 chart of USD/JPY, there is a key level on place at 105.67, as we see it as a very strong demand area. If Fed's favors a rate hike today, pair can test the resistance level of 107.71, and possibly it could attempt a bullish consolidation above 200 SMA. In a scenario where the officials decide to hold the rates during June, then possibly it could break the 105.67 level, toward 104.72 in a first degree.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9229