Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

Last week USD/JPY tested 103.55, the lowest level since the end of August 2014. US dollar declined and Japanese yen gained as the Federal Reserve didn’t tighten monetary policy and the Bank of Japan announced no new monetary easing. In addition, traders were stressed by the risk of Brexit.

This week market’s risk sentiment improved as the fears that Britain will leave the European Union subsided. USD/JPY looks currently oversold and found support in the area of 50-month MA at 104.35. However, US dollar should remain under pressure until the market starts pricing in higher interest rates in the United States.

USD/JPY closed below the 200-week MA at 106.20 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. These levels now function as resistance. This makes the greenback vulnerable for a decline to the 100.70 mark – this is 50% Fibonacci. Japanese monetary authorities are not expected to do currency interventions until the pair is trading above this point. The big trend is still bearish. Only the increase above 110 and 110.15 will return power to the bulls.

The Bank of Japan will release monetary policy minutes on Tuesday and Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI on Thursday. At the same time, risk sentiment will be the main driving force of the market. If Britain remains in the European Union, USD/JPY will get a chance to revisit the 110 mark - in case of Brexit we’ll see the pair closer to 100.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9297

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

EUR/USD once again tested the support line from the November lows, but managed to remain higher. The weekly candle was bullish, but there’s still resistance at 1.1415 and 1.1465, which is limiting the pair on the upside. The pair will likely trade between 1.1350 and 1.1230 ahead of the Brexit vote on Thursday.

Upcoming important news in the euro area’s economic calendar include German ZEW economic sentiment and the speech of the ECB president Mario Draghi on Tuesday, German IFO business climate on Wednesday and the region’s PMIs on Thursday. In addition, the European Central Bank will implement a targeted LTRO program on June 22, in which it will pay commercial banks to use its money. The banks will be required to lend the money to its customers. This is a form of monetary stimulus.

We’ll watch the figures out of Europe, but note that the single currency is largely driven by the expectations connected with the UK referendum and the dynamics of the British pound. The remain vote will make the euro appreciate to 1.15 (100-week MA) and potentially to 1.16. If Britain chooses to leave the euro area, the uptrend of EUR/USD will head to 1.08. No Brexit is a mire likely scenario.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9298

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead German ZEW Indicator: Will the bears take the control?
6/21/2016

Today in Germany will be released the ZEW Economic Sentiment at 09:00 GMT, which is expected to have a drop from 6.4 to 5.1, after it had a surprise during May, where the reading fell from 11.2. For June, the publication will be dominated by the uncertainty regarding the “Brexit” referendum to be done at United Kingdom this thursday, as the EU countries will be watching closely the polls and latest updates about the issue. That's why the coming release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment could have no major changes.

We can note at H4 chart of EUR/USD that a bearish continuation is ongoing, below a bearish trend line that was projected from the May 3rd session's highs. If June's reading for ZEW is higher than expected, then we can see a rally towards the 1.1380 and 1.1400 levels at least, in a first degree. The worst case scenario will push lower the pair to test the support zone of 1.1247, which would mean a consolidation below the 200 SMA.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9299

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Top" points to a possible local correction
6/21/2016

The price has found a resistance at 1.1392, which brought a “V-Top” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1324 – 1.1282, which was developed by the yesterday’s “Breakaway Gap”. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1416 later on.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair faced a resistance at 1.1392, so we’ve got a “Double Top” at the last high, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.1324 – 1.1279. However, if price stops here, an upward movement becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.1392 – 1.1415.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9300

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: unstoppable bulls are going to break the last high
6/21/2016

Bulls got a resistance at 1.4723, but the price is likely going to test the trend line during the day. If we see a pullback from here, it’ll be an opportunity to see a downward correction. Therefore, the next local bearish target is a support at 1.4601 – 1.4579.

The price has been rising dramatically fast since a “V-Bottom” arrived at the last low. Considering a local “Thorn” pattern, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance, which is strengthened by the down-trend line. Subsequently, if a pullback from the line happens, bears will probably try to set up a downward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9301

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" set up a downward correction
6/21/2016

The last “Window” is still open, but on its upper side we’ve got a “Morning Star”. On the other hand, there’re a couple of “Doji”, but they haven’t confirmed yet. If so, the yesterday’s “Window” is likely going to be tested again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an unconfirmed “Shooting Star”, so the market is likely going to achieve the 21 Moving Average in the short term. If any reversal patterns arrived on this line, bulls will probably try to move on.

We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. The last “Doji” haven’t got a confirmation, but it’s likely to see another bearish patterns in the short term. If so, the last “Window” will be the main intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9321

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" stopped bears
6/21/2016

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Tweezers” on the last low, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance level, which was set up by the middle of the last black candle. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has found a lodgement under the last “Window”, but an “Inverted Hammer” is still unconfirmed. So, the pair is probably going to form a “Tweezers” pattern in the short term.

There’s a consolidation in progress. The yesterday’s “Window” has been closed, but it’s still an important level. However, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which points to a possible local correction. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price on the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9322

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
6/21/2016

NZD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
Next buy targets - 0.9200 and 0.9300
NZD/CAD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the active minor impulse wave 3 – which previously broke through the pivotal resistance level 0.9030 (which stopped the B-wave of the previous intermediate ABC correction (B) in March, as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 0.9030 accelerated the active impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the end of April).

NZD/CAD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9200 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.9300 (forecast price for the termination of the active impulse wave 3).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9323

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD approaching resistance level 0.7510
6/21/2016

AUD/USD approaching resistance level 0.7510
Next buy target - 0.7600
AUD/USD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the C-wave from the end of May. The active C-wave started when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7200, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward A-wave from January.

AUD/USD is currently approaching the resistance level 0.7510 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i) at the start of June) If the pair breaks above 0.7510 - AUD/USD can then be expected to rise to the next buy target at 0.7600 (forecast price for the completion of impulse (iii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9324

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD & Crude Oil Inventories: Bulls still dominate the overall scenario
6/22/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the Core Retail Sales indicator in Canada, which favors to have a positive reading from -0.3% to 0.7%, which is the latest consensus by analysts. Later at 14:30 GMT, we expect the reading from Crude Oil Inventories in United States, which could have a dip from -0.9M to -1.3M. Both indicators will be likely to move CAD pairs during wednesday session, but because of the Brexit's referendum that will take place this thursday, we should expect less volatility for USD/CAD after both indicators' release.

Technical overview for USD/CAD at H4 chart is calling for a bullish continuation, as it remains supported by a trend line plotted from the May 3rd lows. If Crude Oil inventories are within expectations, then it could build the ground to test the 200 SMA afterwards. However, if the reading is worst-than-expected, it could attempt to break the resistance level of 1.2953, while a better-than-expected can push the Loonie to test the support zone of 1.2678, which is below of trend line's zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9325

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls stopped by the "Double Top"
6/22/2016

We’ve got a “Double Top” at the last high, which has been confirmed, so the price achieved a support at 1.1242 afterwards. Therefore, the market is likely going to catch a resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1324 during the day. If a pullback from this area arrives, a decline towards a support at 1.1219 – 1.1188 becomes possible.

The price faced a support at 1.1222, which brought a confirmed “Triple Bottom” pattern. So, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1279 – 1.1324. However, if buyers be stopped here, a new downward movement will be on the table.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9326

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: new high is coming because of the "Thorn"
6/22/2016

The pair found a resistance on the trend line, so the price got a support at 1.4601 afterwards. Also, there’s a bullish “Thorn” pattern, which points to a possible rise towards the main down-trend line. If we see a pullback from here, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of a support at 1.4579.

We’ve got a local flat in progress. It’s likely that the price is going to test a resistance at 1.4782 once again. If bulls be stopped here, a downward movement becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9327

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" could be a reason for deeper upward correction
6/22/2016

The last “Window” was finally closed, so we’ve got two bullish patterns such a “Morning Star” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a confirmed “Shooting Star”, so when a local correction ends there’ll be an opportunity to see a bearish candle.

The price has been moving up and down under the “Window”. Also, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Piercing Line” at the local low, so an upward movement becomes possible. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance line.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9342

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears can't move on because of the "Window"
6/22/2016

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Tweezers” on the nearest support line. Also, the middle of the last huge black candle acts a support as well. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest “Window” once again in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s many reversal patterns at the last low, so the price is moving in a range between these patterns and the nearest “Window”. Under this circumstances , if the middle of the big black candle acts as a resistance, a new downward movement becomes possible.

There’s a flat correction in progress, so the nearest resistance level is very actual. However, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” on the 55 Moving Average, so bears are likely going to achieve the nearest support during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9343

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & Brexit: What will happen if "Remain" or "Leave"?
6/23/2016

Today is the “Brexit” Referendum's day and the polls will be open from 07:00 until 22:00 local time (BST) and the British citizens will decide about their membership to the European Union; a huge market-mover event where the traders will be keeping an eye to decide what's the best to trade during the rest of the week. Latest polls are showing a mixed sentiment: Opinium says that the “Leave” is slightly favorite with 45% against 44% of “Remain”, while YouGov, an online poll, notes the 48% chances to win for “Remain” versus 42%. It's expected that after 07:00 BST of Friday, the world will know the final result of Referendum.

The technical picture for GBP/USD at daily chart is showing a neutral stance ahead this event. However, during last days, bulls are getting favored by the recent polls' results. Cable possibly will move above the 1.5048 level if UK decides to “Remain” in the EU, while a “Leave” decision can push lower the pair below the strong support of 1.3840 level. 200 SMA is currently trying to offer dynamic resistance, but the overall sentiment around Referendum is stronger than the technical indicators at this stage.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9346

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver a new local high
6/23/2016

There’s a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed, so the price reached a resistance at 1.1337 afterwards. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.1392 during the day. If we see a pullback from here, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of a support at 1.1324 – 1.1282.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which led to the current upward movement. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance at 1.1381 – 1.1392 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to set up a decline towards a support at 1.1324 – 1.1279.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9349

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls broke the "Triangle"
6/23/2016

The last consolidation under the trend line was finally ended by a downward movement. Also, we’ve got a local bearish “V-Top” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.4657. If a pullback from this level arrives, an upward movement becomes possible.

We’ve got a “Triangle”, which was broken yesterday, so there’s a new “Triple Top” pattern. So, bears are likely going to catch a support somewhere between the levels 1.4738 – 1.4657 during the day. In case of a pullback from here, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.4886.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9350

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7150
6/23/2016

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7150
Next buy target - 0.7300
NZD/USD continues to rise strongly inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3, which recently broke the resistance level 0.7150, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this instrument. The breakout of this resistance level intensified the bullish pressure on NZD/USD – leading to the subsequent breakout of the upper resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from January.

NZD/USD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7300 (target price for the completion of wave (C)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9358

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD reached buy target 1.4750
6/23/2016

GBP/USD reached buy target 1.4750
Next buy target - 1.5000
GBP/USD continues to rise – following the earlier breakout of the resistance level 1.4750, which is the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone which has been reversing the pair from the start of February and the buy target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level 1.4750 is likely to accelerate the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of March.

GBP/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.5000. Strong support now stands between the recently broken price levels 1.4750 and 1.4650.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9359

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: there isn't any reversal candle pattern so far
6/23/2016

We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which did a great work, but there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the last high is likely going to be broken soon. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a support by the nearest “Window”. The current candle is white, so bulls are probably going to move on in the short term.

The price has reached the upper “Window”, which can act as a resistance. If so, a local downward correction becomes possible. However, we don’t have any bearish pattern here, so bulls are still in the game.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9360