Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls knock through the "Window"
6/23/2016

We’ve got a “Three Methods” here, so the 21 Moving Average was broken afterwards. There isn’t any reversal pattern, so bulls are likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price broken the nearest “Window”, so buyers will likely try to reach the next resistance line.

The last black candle has a big shadow, which led to the current upward movement. Considering we don’t have any bearish patterns, the market is likely going to achieve the 144 Moving Average during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9361

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for June 27 - July 3

US dollar index rose on the news that Britain voted to leave the European Union. The dynamics of the US currency was mixed: the greenback strengthened against British pound, the euro and commodity currencies, but suffered losses against Japanese yen and gold. Dollar’s gain versus Swiss franc may be explained by currency interventions of Swiss National Bank to weaken the franc. Demand for American currency as a safe haven allowed US dollar index to test 96.70 on Friday.

Note, however, that the overall bullish potential for the greenback is limited as the US Federal Reserve will be less likely to raise interest rates in the coming months, because of the uncertainty created by Brexit vote.

Data released in America during the past week weren’t very bright and the Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen was very cautious in her testimony to Congress.

Next week America will release final GDP for Q1 on Tuesday, core PCE price index and personal spending on Wednesday and ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday. Support for USD index is around 93,15, while resistance is at 98.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9370

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for June 27 - July 3

EUR/USD breached the uptrend support line since November on the news that Britain voted to leave the European Union. Such decision will have negative consequences for the euro area, which has strong economic ties with the UK. The victory of Brexit voters will also increase political risks in Europe. Populist leaders in France and the Netherlands already made calls for their own referendums to leave. The news from Britain may affect the results of Spanish parliamentary election on Sunday, June 26.

EUR/USD fell almost to 1.0900, before recovering to 1.1100 (50-week MA). The recovery was possible because of the reassurances of the Bank of England that it will provide enough liquidity for financial market. The ECB’s quantitative easing also helped to calm traders. In addition, the Federal Reserve is now less likely to raise interest rates soon because of Brexit uncertainty, and that will limit the strength of the US dollar.

Further resistance is at 1.1200, 1.1350 and 1.1415. On the downside EUR/USD will remain vulnerable for 1.1050 and 1.0900.

Britain is expected to make a formal announcement to the EU at a meeting of the European Council on Monday, June 27. Other important releases from the euro area include German retail sales on Monday, German inflation on Wednesday and the euro area’s CPI on Thursday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9371

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for June 27 - July 3

GBP/USD fell to more than 30-year lows on the results of the UK referendum. 52% British people voted to leave the European Union, while 48% wanted the nation to remain in the EU. Voter participation was over 72%, and the lead of the Brexit supporters was 1.26 million votes.

Britain is expected to make a formal announcement to the EU at the European Council meeting on Monday, June 27. British Prime Minister David Cameron will take part in this meeting, but said that he will resign by October. According to Cameron, Britain needs ‘new leadership’ for further negotiations with Europe. The process of Brexit should take 2 years.

Leaving the EU could cost Britain access to the EU’s single market, so it will have to seek new trade accords with countries around the world. In the long term the size of negative impact on British economy will depend on whether Britain manages to reach many new partial economic agreements with the EU or not. It seems that the European Union will take a hard stance on dealing with Britain: the EU heads Juncker and Tusk said in the joint statement that Europe expects UK to move on Brexit as soon as possible.

In the shorter term British firms will be affected by uncertainty, and that will likely make the UK economic growth falter in the second half of 2016. Traders will fear that the vote results will hit investment to British economy. In addition, one of the main problem now is the split in British society. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU, and now their authorities announced that there is now an opportunity for these regions to leave the United Kingdom.

The market’s fears eased a bit as the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney offered to provide more than 250 billion pounds plus “substantial” foreign currency liquidity and it was ready to take additional measures if needed. However, it’s still clear that there’s more uncertainty ahead for the British pound.

There will be more volatility in GBP/USD next week as traders and investors try to adjust to the new reality. Support is at 1.3520 and 1.3300. Resistance is at 1.3880 and 1.4150.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9372

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for June 27 - July 3

USD/JPY fell to 100.00 mark on the news that Britain voted to leave the European Union. Then in the volatile trading the pair recovered to 103.00 on the risk of currency interventions by Japanese monetary authorities.

The market’s risk aversion declined a bit after British Prime Minister and the Bank of England’s Governor reassured investors saying that the nation’s economy remains fundamentally strong and that central bank is ready to take required steps.

In addition, the biggest central banks in the world, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the ECB, the SNB and the Bank of Japan have standing swap facilities, an unlimited backstop to exchange currencies in case of market disruption.

Yet, potential for the pair’s recovery should be limited. Capital markets will remain in the situation of uncertainty supporting demand for the yen as a safe haven. US dollar won’t have its own strength against the yen as the Fed won’t be in a hurry to raise interest rates after Brexit. Resistance is provided by the 200-week MA at 106.20 and the downtrend resistance line in the 109.00 area. Support is at 100.75 and 100.00. Japan will allow the pair to go below these levels, only if the decline will be very slow.

Next week Japan will release retail sales figures on Wednesday, industrial production on Thursday and inflation statistics as well as Tankan manufacturing and services indexes on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9373

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK Downgrade: Still more room for bears?
6/28/2016

During yesterday, Fitch and S&P agencies downgrade their respective ratings regarding UK's economy. Fitch cut from “AA+” to “AA”, while S&P put the outlook on “AA” from “AAA”, and the effect was felt in the markets, specially with GBP/USD, which currently is trading on historical lows below the 1.3300 barrier. Also, the uncertainty remains in place, as recently the UK Health Secretary said that a 2nd referendum could happen.

Our technical overview is still calling for more downside on the Cable, because it can replicate the cycle that drove the pair during the Brexit referendum's results and Fibonacci expansion is showing a key area of interest: 1.2869 and 1.2567 levels, which are 61.8% and 78.6% respectively. 50 and 200 SMA at H1 chart are also pointing to the downside, but be cautious when trading the GBP/USD nowadays, as the swings are still big.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9393

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" set up the bullish correction
6/28/2016

We’ve got a consolidation in progress, which brought a local “Double Bottom” pattern. If it confirms, the market is likely going to get a resistance somewhere between the levels 1.1130 -1.1145. However, if a pullback from here happens afterwards, bears will probably try to move on and deliver a new low.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “Double Bottom”, which led to the current upward movement. So, the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1132 – 1.1145 during the day. If bulls be stopped here, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.0939 – 1.0911 as a possible bearish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9394

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to close yesterday's "Breakaway Gap"
6/28/2016

Yesterday bears delivered a new low, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom”, which set up the current upward correction. Therefore, the pair is likely going to close the previously formed “Breakaway Gap”. If so, bears will probably try to return into the market afterwards.

We’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to get a resistance somewhere between the levels 1.3445 – 1.3614. If we see a pullback from this area, a downward movement becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9397

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
6/28/2016

USD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.2800
USD/CAD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.3120 (which reversed the previous waves (2) and (a), as can be seen from the daily USD/CAD chart below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the end of February. The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the previous minor ABC correction 2, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from May.

USD/CAD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.2800. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 1.3120.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9398

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF reversed from support zone
6/28/2016

CAD/CHF reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 0.7600
CAD/CHF continues to rise – after the price earlier reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.7430 (which reversed earlier impulse waves 1 and (i)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the Fibonacci cluster made out of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous C-wave from April and 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous longer-term upward price move from the start of February.

CAD/CHF is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7600 (which reversed earlier minor impulse wave (i)). Strong support zone remains near the support level 0.7430.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9399

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish patterns point to further upward movement
6/28/2016

We’ve got a “Doji” and a “Harami” at the local low. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the current upward correction is probably going to be continued.

There’s a flat in progress under the last “Window”. Considering bullish patterns at the local low, the market is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9409

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" entered the market into a correction phase
6/28/2016

We’ve got a “Harami” at the last low. Moreover, the last black candle has a huge shadow, so the current correction is likely going to move on towards the nearest resistance line. As we can see on the Daily chart, the lowest “Window” has acted as a support. Therefore, bulls are probably going to form a white candle today.

The last “Window” has been closed. Also, we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which points to a possible achievement of the 89 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to see a new bearish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9410

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Thorn" brought a correction into the market
6/30/2016

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1130, which led to a local decline. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1045 – 1.1032 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.1145 – 1.1188.

There’s a flat in progress between the nearest resistance at 1.1130 and the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve the lower side of the current resistance area, which is at 1.1045 – 1.1032. If we see pullback from here, an upward movement becomes possible, so we should keep track of the next resistance at 1.1179 – 1.1188 as a possible bullish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9434

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-Top" stopped bulls for a while
6/30/2016

We’ve got a bearish “V-Top”, which has set up a local downward price movement. So, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.3226 – 1.3116, which is near the downtrend’s lower side. If bears stop here, there’ll be an opportunity to see a rise towards an area between the resistance area’s upper side at 1.3614 and the level at 1.3681.

There’s a local flat in progress under the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.3273 – 1.3226 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to approach the next resistance at 1.3614 – 1.3681 later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9435

 

[riki143]

Which factors influence oil prices?
6/30/2016

Oil prices rose for the fifth month in a row. Brent recovered losses it made on the Brexit referendum and rose above resistance line connecting June highs in the $50.40 area.

Bullish factors for oil are: a decline in the US oil inventories (American stockpiles fell by 4.1 million barrels in the most recent week), Venezuela's falling oil production and strong US gasoline demand.

Bearish factors for oil include a ceasefire in Nigeria and receding wildfires in Canada, which should increase supply of the commodity. Nigerian production has already recovered by 200K-300K barrels per day since the middle of June. In addition, although the market players feared the looming strike by Norway's oil sector, even if it happens, the output of the North Sea's biggest producer will fall by only 7%. Moreover, the prospect of Brexit should continue adding uncertainty and limit oil price gains. Note that although most economists forecast higher oil prices in the second half of 2016, the biggest risk to this bullish for oil scenario is weak economic data from the US, Europe and China.

Resistance is still provided by June 9 high at $52.85. Support is at $50.00, $48.50 and $47.00. in the short term we may see more consolidation of the commodity.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9440

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to move on because of the "Three Methods"
6/30/2016

We’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” pattern inside the current “Window”, which makes possible an achievement the 55 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “High Wave” at the last low, which has been confirmed. The last candles are bullish and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, bulls are probably going to move on.

The price has been moving up since a “Tweezers” was formed at the local low. Also, there’s an “Engulfing” a little bit above the nearest “Window”. So, the pair is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9441

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: new local high is coming soon because of "Harami"
6/30/2016

The biggest bearish candle has a huge shadow. Also, there’s a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to get a resistance by the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity for another bearish price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, the nearest resistance is still in the game, which can bring a bearish pattern afterwards.

There’s a local correction in progress under the already closed “Window”. Moreover, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local low as well as a support by the 21 Moving Average. Therefore, bulls are probably going to move on, so we should keep an eye in the 144 Moving Average as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9442

 

[riki143]

USD/NOK reversed from resistance zone
6/30/2016

USD/NOK reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 8.300
USD/NOK recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 8.7000 (which reversed the previous minor correction 2 in February), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (B) from May.

USD/NOK is expected to fall further in the active intermediate impulse wave (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 8.300 (forecast price for the completion of the active minor sub-impulse wave 1).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9443

 

[riki143]

SGD/JPY reversed from support zone
6/30/2016

SGD/JPY reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 77.70
SGD/JPY continues to rise – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 74.50 (which reversed the previous A-wave in the middle of 2013, as can be seen from the weekly SGD/JPY chart below) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the 3rd minor impulse wave of the intermediate downward impulse (3) from May.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone and the oversold reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - SGD/JPY can be expected to rise up from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 77.70.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9444

 

[riki143]

Gold: wait for the right moment to buy
6/30/2016

Because of the political and economic uncertainty created by Brexit, analysts started speaking of gold bull market – gold is an all-time safe haven. The uncertainty is unlikely to disappear anytime soon – a factor, which should keep providing the precious metal with support. Other reasons to expect higher gold prices include continuous monetary stimulus by key central banks (the Federal Reserve is no longer expected to raise interest in the coming months) and low government bond yields.

XAU/USD spiked to $1358.20 on June 24 exceeding 2015 high before it returned lower to the $1310 area (200-week MA). Next support is at $1270 (100-day MA)/$1257.63 (weekly pivot support).

Note, however, that one has to find a right level to enter a long position. Resistance is also provided by $1332 – 38.2% Fibo of the 2012-2015 decline and 50-month MA. There may be more of consolidation before the bulls are able to clear these resistance levels. Don’t be in a hurry and wait for a good entry signal. The next trigger may be the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls on July 8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9445