Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie is ready for changes
10/6/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, a breakout of resistance line at 1,323 will activate the AB = CD and the Crab patterns. Their targets are located in the zone of 1,355-1,357. To continue the rally, the "bulls" should consolidate their positions at the 1.33 level.

On the hourly USD/CAD chart, the target 78,6% of the Gartley pattern has been fulfilled. A successful bullish attack of the resistance line at 1.323 will lead to the transformation of the Gratley pattern into the Crab pattern. The target of the Crab pattern is located at the 1.334 level.

Recommendation: BUY 1,323 SL 1,3175 TP1 1,334 TP2 1,355

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10769

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: testing the SSB
10/6/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7600; resistance – 0.7650, 0.7690.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7610/20; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7750.

Reason: a new correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a strong support near 0.7600.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10770

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: expected correction
10/6/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.20/30; resistance – 103.50/70

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 103.50; SL — 103.70; TP1 — 102.80; TP2 — 102.20.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and there is a rising lines of Indicator; a strong resistance about 103.50/70.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10771

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on
10/6/2016

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we’ve got a “Triangle” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1181 – 1.1165. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1228.

The price has broken the Moving Averages, so bears are likely going to get a support at 1.1180 in the short term. At the same time, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.1228 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10772

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to test last low
10/6/2016

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current consolidation on the four-hours chart. However, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2684, so we can have a new low in the short term.

The last “Pennant” pattern helped bears to deliver a new local low. It’s likely that the price is going to achieve a support at 1.1284. So, the market is likely going to continue falling down until any reversal pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10773[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: will be there a new drop or not?
10/6/2016

On October 2nd Theresa May put foot at the podium, cleared her throat and sent a bunch of shockwaves through markets. The government will invoke Article 50 in March 2017! It resulted in the British pound breaking down rather significantly during the past trading sessions and now heading to the 1.25 level opening the door to even more selling opportunities.

A lot of this was due to the fact that the Article 50 is becoming more and more of a reality; and there won’t be a plain sailing. We will be faced up with a really grievous farewell from the UK. Although I don’t understand traders’ reaction to this news. It seems that a lot of them were a bit blindsided, frantically busy with their financial operations, and didn’t notice that the ball has already started to roll many days ago. Well, although the pound has already suffered significantly, many analysts expect that with new traders awakening from their sleep, the GBP will be falling further. Many stakeholders confirm this assumption by opening new shorts.

Credit Suisse hurried to revise its target to 1.22 from previous 1.34. BNP Paribas is in line with its peer. It expects the pound to fall further as the government prepares its negotiation strategy ahead of March. The GBP/USD is now below the 1.28 level, and while the perspective of trading GBP from the long is quite attractive as the pair reaches the 1.25 level, BNPP officials prefer not to take any rash measures and keep watching the pound sliding to its historical lows.

Goldman Sachs is also having a rather bearish sentiment towards the pound. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to deliver a monetary stimulus for the UK economy. In addition, it left the door open for further easing. As we see the recent data coming from UK keep the BoE away from its promises, but it doesn’t mean that the upcoming data will be as good as it is. Therefore, Goldman Sachs’s forecasts for the British pound are extremely bearish. It set its current 3-month forecast at 1.20.

However, not everyone agrees with these gloomy predictions for the pound. Aurelija Augulyte, currency analyst with Nordea Markets believes the GBP is already extremely undervalued. She thinks that some global events in the upcoming months will accord support for the pound. Moreover, she sees GBP/USD rising at the end of this year reaching the 1.32 level.

So, it is for you to decide, in which direction GBP will go further. I think that there is a rationale to sell short-term rallies if you are so inclined to scalp the market, but at this point in time I have no interest in risking any money and I would rather wait for the new steady trend to show up. Because, let’s face it, the 1.25 level is rather low for this currency pair.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10775

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, October 6th
10/6/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 82 381 ? - 25 323 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1248; 1.1264; 1.1283; 1.1314
Closest support levels 1.1183; 1.1142; 1.1096; 1.1048
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1183, with target points at 1.1142 and 1.1096
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1248 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1264 and 1.1283

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 3 290 ? + 812 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2768; 1.2789; 1.2833(07?); 1.2868
Closest support levels 1.2731; 1.2707; 1.2675; 1.2637
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2731, with target points at 1.2707 and 1.2675
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2768 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2789 and 1.2833

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 98 ? + 1 630 ?
Closest resistance levels 103.64; 103.91; 104.29; 104.77
Closest support levels 103.34; 102.82; 102.44; 101.98
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.64, with the target points at 103.91 and 104.29
Alternative scenario Moving below 103.34 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.82 and 102.44

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 627 ? + 402 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3177; 1.3205; 1.3261; 1.3339
Closest support levels 1.3148; 1.3116; 1.3058; 1.2982
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3177, with the target points at 1.3205 and 1.3261
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3148 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3116 and 1.3058

EUR JPY GBP CAD USD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10778

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" has been broken
10/6/2016

There’s an “Engulfing” at the local high, which has been confirmed, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s another “Engulfing”, so bears are likely going to move on toward the last low.

We’ve got a “Harami” at the last high, which has a confirmation. Moreover, the price found a lodgement under the previously tested “Window”. In this case, it’s likely that the pair is going to achieve the closest support level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10779

 

[riki143]

NFP report is coming on Friday
10/6/2016

Tomorrow will be a red-letter day in the trader’s calendar. Everybody with bated breath will be waiting for the Non-Farm Payrolls report coming from the US. The NFP is a key economic indicator designed to represent the overall number of paid workers in the US not including farm employees, government employees, and the people working for nonprofit organizations. So, let’s figure it out, why this indicator is so important for traders.

It is because this indicator has always been a major troublemaker in the markets and spoiler of the trading desks. Many stakeholders prefer to close their positions before the “Black Friday” knocks at their door (the indicator occurs on the first Friday of every month) and wait for the market to digest the report followed by extreme swings in quotes’ movement.

September employment data coming this week is expected to be better than those we got in August. The indicator should rise to 171K from previous 151K. Barclays NFP forecasts even better data – a 200K rise, which includes 185K from the private sector. If this expectation is justified, it will add weight to the case for a rate hike sooner or later. We must admit that the later forecast is a bit ambitious given the fact that Automatic Data Processing has recently provided us with poor information about the non-farm employment change yesterday (154K versus 166K expected). But don’t be too upset; the ADP’s data don’t often match the Friday’s NFP report.

You might ask why this NFP report influences the currency so much. In a nutshell, if the NFP data are really good, the Fed will have more incentives to rise its interest rates. The Fed’s officials are keeping a close eye on it, as they are committed to ensure full employment in the US economy. The more jobs are created the higher level of consumption we get. And this, in turn, leads to the increase in GDP.

Knowing that you will be overwhelmed with the NFP report, we’ve decided to remind you about other important releases coming this Friday – trade balance, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. So, it going to be a really busy day. Meanwhile, we suggest you to take a good nap today and muster up your strength for tomorrow.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10780

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: new high is coming
10/6/2016

The last “Three Methods” has done such a great job, so the price is rising. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible an achievement of the nearest resistance line.

The price has been rising since the last “Window” was broken. However, there’s a “Harami” at the local high, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average. If we see a bullish pattern on this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10781

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
10/6/2016

AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 0.9900
AUD/CAD has been under strong bearish pressure lately - following the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the major resistance level 1.0190 (which has been reversing the price from last December, as can see below) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star (this resistance zone also created the weekly Evening Star in December). AUD/CAD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9900.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10782

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD reached sell target 0.9500
10/6/2016

NZD/CAD reached sell target 0.9500
Next sell target 0.9260
NZD/CAD has been falling in the last few trading sessions – after the earlier breakout of the support level 0.9500, which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 0.9500 follows the earlier downward reversal from the powerful resistance zone surrounding the long-term resistance level 0.9640, which has been reversing the price from the start of 2014.

Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance zone - NZD/CAD can be expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9260 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10783

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver wave [y] of E
10/6/2016

Wave E is likely taking form of a double zigzag. Previously, the price formed a pullback from 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [y] of E soon.

The main intraday target on the one-hour chart is 6/8 MM Level. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (c) of [y]. In this case we should keep an eye on +2/8 MM Level as a possible bullish goal.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10784

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & US NFP: Already pricing a positive Jobs data for September?
10/7/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be published the US Non-Farm Payrolls for September and it seems that we could expect an increase from 151,000 to 175,000 jobs according to recent market consensus. The price action across the EUR/USD pair is already showing an interesting pattern, as during Thursday's session posted fresh lows and it could be a hint that the markets are pricing a possible increase for the upcoming NFP release.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a sideways structure in formation, where the buyers are capped by the 1.1200 handle. However, the pair is still trading above the support level of 1.1127, where a better-than-expected reading could deliver more sellers for EUR/USD and it could decline towards the 1.0689 level. In the other scenario, if we see a rebound at the current stage, then the next target should be the 1.1227 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10785

 

[riki143]

Gold is trying to consolidate at the bottom
10/7/2016

On the daily chart of gold, there was a breakout of the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. The target 200% of AB = CD pattern has been fullfilled. Breakout of the support line at $ 1,250 will activate the target 88.6% of the Bat pattern ($ 1220). In contrast, a rebound from the $ 1,250 will contribute to the recovery of gold price.

On the hourly chart of gold, the "Three Indians" pattern has been formed. Rebound of the quotes to a maximum at the point 2 will be a signal for opening long positions. There is a level of 23.6% of the last descending wave and the upper boundary of the descending trade channel.

Recommendation: BUY 1269 SL 1250 TP1 1300 TP2 1311.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10786

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound won't catch falling knives
10/7/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the target 224% of the senior AB=CD pattern and the target 224% of the "Deep-Sea Crab"pattern. In this case, it is very dangerous to open long positions.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the formation of the last descending wave has been finished. The risistance lines are located at the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, the level of 23.6% serves as a support line. For the correction the "bulls" have to consolidate above the 1.2575 level, and then return to the descending trade channel. Until this moment, the "bears" will continue to control the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10787

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to reach support
10/7/2016

The price has been moving up and down inside the possible “Triangle”. Also, there’s an opportunity to have a “Bear Trap”. So, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1093 – 1.1071 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to deliver a correction towards a resistance at 1.1137 – 1.1152.

The price faced a support at 1.1132, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, bears are likely going to catch a support at 1.1093 – 1.1071. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1137 – 1.1152 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10788

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears delivered new low
10/7/2016

The market has plunged, which led to form a huge “Thorn” pattern. Therefore, it’s likely to see a correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.2677. However, the market is probably going to decline afterwards until any bullish pattern forms.

Bears have deliver a new historical low at 1.1726, so we’ve got a “Thorn” pattern. In this case, the price is likely going to deliver an upward correction. If we see a pullback from 1.2621, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10789

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, October 7th
10/7/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 4 109 ? + 40 482 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1187; 1.1209(00?); 1.1237; 1.1257
Closest support levels 1.1091; 1.1065; 1.1035; 1.1001
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1091, with target points at 1.1065 and 1.1035
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1187 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1209 and 1.1237

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 7 022 ? + 4 145 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2751; 1.2804; 1.2835; 1.2868
Closest support levels 1.2466; 1.2438; 1.2407; 1.2373
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2751, with the target points at 1.2804 and 1.2835
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2466 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2438 and 1.2407

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 4 300 ? + 5 901 ?
Closest resistance levels 104.36; 104.64; 104.82; 105.05
Closest support levels 103.20; 102.76; 102.49; 102.19
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.36, with the target points at 104.64 and 104.82
Alternative scenario Moving below 103.20 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.76 and 102.49

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 310 ? + 475 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3266; 1.3287; 1.3319; 1.3364
Closest support levels 1.3168; 1.3142; 1.3110; 1.3065
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3266, with the target points at 1.3287 and 1.3319
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3168 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3142 and 1.3110

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10790

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tower" highlights possibility to have bullish correction
10/7/2016

The price has been falling down since an “Engulfing” arrived at the local high. Also, there’s a “Hammer” at the last low, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. In this case, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any bullish pattern so far, which means bears will move on.

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Tower”, so the price is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10791