Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

NFP forecasts from banks
10/7/2016

Arm yourself ahead of the US data releases! Forecasts from main banks!

You can find more information on the upcoming NFP release here.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10792

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to reach lower "Window"
10/7/2016

There’s a resistance by the upper “Window”, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, it’s likely that the price is going to achieve the nearest support in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far.

Bulls are still here, but we’ve got a support by the 21 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Tweezers” pattern, but its confirmation is a quite weak. So, it’s likely to see a correction towards the nearest “Window”.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10793

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD reached sell target 1.2600
10/7/2016

GBP/USD reached sell target 1.2600
Next sell target - 1.2000
GBP/USD recently broke sharply below the support level 1.2600, which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 - which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) of the primary downward impulse ⑤ form the middle of July.

GBP/USD is expected to fall down further in the direction of the next sell target at the round support level 1.2000. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) above the aforementioned price level 1.2600.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10794

 

[riki143]

GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 130.00
10/7/2016

GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 130.00
Next sell target 124.80
GBP/JPY continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which recently broke through the pivotal support level 130.00 (which stopped the earlier downward impulse waves (3) and 1, as can be seen below). The breakout of the support level 130.00 coincided with the breakout of the lower support trendline of the daily Descending Triangle. This double breakout accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (5).

GBP/JPY is expected to fall down further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 124.80 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10795

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Triangle" going to be continued
10/7/2016

There’s a possible triangle in wave (Y), whish is likely going to be continued. The main target is 4/8 MM Level. If we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.

Wave D has been ended in a form of a double zigzag. Also, we’ve got a triangle in wave [x]. Therefore, it’s likely that bulls are going to deliver wave E of (Y) in the short term, so we should keep an eye on +1/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10796

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD outlook for October 10-14
10/7/2016

This week didn’t send any shockwaves to the technical chart of the USD/CAD (well, until Friday). Crude oil futures settle at $50 per barrel. USD/CAD is usually responsive to these sprouts of life. However, this time it was ignoring higher oil prices. Normally Canadian dollar would gain, because Canadian economy relies on the robust oil industry.

This ran against the normal reaction of CAD, because the Canadian economy is reliant on a robust oil industry.

On Tuesday we heard a BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins speaking of the Canadian economy and monetary policy trends. She said that the bank is ready to provide monetary stimulus in order to meet its inflation target. Wilkins admitted that Canadian economy is now experiencing tough time struggling with global events of a Brexit like nature, the collapse in oil prices. It has also been affected by headwinds from the European debt crisis, global financial crisis, but now there has been progress, since the risks of the inflation have been offset. Wilkin’s encouragement a bit contradicts the Monday data that we got from Canada. Canadian manufacturers signaled another slowdown in growth momentum in September. Then, we cheered up as the building permits data – a key indicator of demand in housing market – has been much better than expected; and the trade balance showed a narrower deficit. But, surprisingly, all these data didn’t add a bit of spice into the technical picture of the USD/CAD.

The USD/CAD experienced a significant swing only when Canadian employment numbers came out stronger than expected; and long-awaited FNP fell short of the expectations. The key level is 200-day MA at the 1.3210. There’s also 6-month resistance line at 1.3290. If “bulls” don’t gain momentum, the quotes may move until we get some prompts from the FOMC officials about their decision on the interest rates. The next support line for US dollar is lying against 50-day MA at 1.3065. A breakout of the resistance line at 1.3290 will open the way up to 1.3350/1.3400.

Next week we would recommend you to focus on the new housing price index coming on Tuesday. It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry's health which positively influences the economic growth. And after this report we won’t get any significant data releases from Canada. As it has been already mentioned; all our attention will be concentrated on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, on a bunch of the US key statistic indicators (unemployment claims, import prices, core retail sales, producer price index) and Janet Yellen’s speech at the end of the week.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10797

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD outlook for October 10-14
10/7/2016

This week we had some data releases from Australia. Monday started with a portion of cheering news. After a sharp drop in August, the Australian PMI increased by 2.9 points to a broadly stable 49.8 points in September. On Tuesday we heard a cash rate announcement from the Reserve Bank Australia; the board decided to leave the rate unchanged at 1.5 %, taking into account the fact that inflation remains below most central bank’s targets and the nation’s economy moved off the dead center. The RBA has already eased monetary policy at the RBA’s previous meeting, so, this time, it judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged is consistent with their long-term goals and inflation target. Then, we got the retail sales and trade balance data that came in at a beat on expectations. But Aussie didn’t pay to this news too much heed.

The AUS/USD backed off the 0.77 area at the beginning of the week and then breached below 50-day MA around 0.7600. It gained bullish momentum from the bunch of US data releases (NFP, unemployment rate) that didn’t justify the market’s expectations. If the pair closes the week above this point, Aussie may once again try to retest highs. Below 0.7600 Aussie will target 0.7500/0.7480 (2016 support line).

The smooth ascending of the AUD/USD currency pair could be disturbed by news and data releases coming from the United States next week. On Wednesday everybody’s eyes will be fixed on the FOMC meeting minutes which in a way could determine the FOMC members’ votes on where to set interest rates. Then, on Tuesday we will be waiting for the US unemployment claims (one of the key releases ahead of the Fed’s meeting). In addition, tons of the US statistic data will be dropped on us on Friday. And, as if we couldn’t get enough, at the end of the day we will hear the J. Yellen’s comments on all these overwhelming data reports. We expect her speech will be rather hawkish despite the unpleasant data we got today. According to Yellen, the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month (we have even more than that – 156K) in order not to overheat the economy.

Next week there won’t be any great releases coming from Australia. On Tuesday we will know about the sentiments of Australian businesses and define whether the nation’s economy is healthy or not, once National Australia Bank releases its report on the business confidence. Then, on Friday, I encourage you not to miss the RBA’s Financial Stability review just to make sure that the bank won’t change its monetary stance in the nearest future. But all these reports shouldn’t change the technical charts significantly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10798

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for October 10-14
10/7/2016

US dollar index closed above resistance line from December 2016 and rose to 97.00. America released upbeat ISM manufacturing and services PMIs. According to CME futures, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December rose to 60%.

American labor market figures came mostly below forecast. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 156K in September vs. 171K expected. The unemployment rate increased to 5%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2%. Still, these figures are in line with December rate hike. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in August that the economy needs to create just under 100K jobs a month. So, even though we can see some depreciation of the greenback, the currency should enjoy overall support.

Next week the Fed will release the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday. The market will also watch retail sales and producer prices figures on Friday. In addition, we’ll hear comments from the Fed speakers, including remarks from Yellen on Friday. The last, but not the least is the second US presidential debate on Sunday night. Support of the Republican candidate Donald Trump has considerably declined in the last several days, so it’s interesting how the situation will develop further. All in all, Hillary Clinton’s victory would be regarded as a prerequisite for US economic and financial stability.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10799

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for October 10-14
10/7/2016

During the week EUR/USD was trading in a very volatile fashion. The euro got a boost and managed to recover from lows on the speculation that the European Central Bank’s thinking about tapering its quantitative easing program. According to a report by Bloomberg, the regulator would start winding down its bond buying by 10 billion euro a month, ahead of the program’s currently scheduled end in March 2017. However, there was no official confirmation of this information, and earlier the ECB president Mario Draghi has consistently said monetary stimulus would be extended past March if necessary.

As for other news, German factory orders rose at the fastest pace in 5 months. Concerns about Deutsche Bank have declined, but the uncertainty still remains. Moreover, significant political uncertainty looms ahead, and despite good readings from Germany we see that the overall economy of the currency union is losing momentum.

Next week don’t miss German trade balance and Sentix investor confidence on Monday and German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday.

Technically EUR/USD failed to stick to the levels above 100-week MA (1.1210). However, the pair got support near 1.1100 (support line from November 2015). Next week we expect EUR/USD to stay in 1.1200/1.1100 range. Decline below 1.1100 will open the way down to 1.1040/00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10800

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for October 10-14
10/7/2016

British pound was a big newsmaker during the past week. GBP/USD fell by more than 6% to 31-year low of 1.2000 during the Asian session on Friday. The decline took place amid low liquidity and could have been triggered by an error of some large bank’s trader and then exacerbated by algorithmic trades. An article in Financial Times citing French President Francois Hollande, who said that the UK must suffer the consequences of leaving the European Union, may also have had some negative impact on the British currency.

While this pound’s selloff may have been an accident, let’s have a wider look on its prospects.

Data released in the UK during the past week were mixed. On the one hand, all 3 PMIs exceeded expectations. On the other hand, industrial production contracted in August, while manufacturing growth was weaker than expected.

Concerns about Britain’s future have been mounting. Recent comments of Prime Minister Theresa May increased the risks of “hard Brexit” that would restrict access to the EU’s single market so that the government could control immigration. According to the media, Ms. May isn’t planning to negotiate special favors for financial services in EU exit talks. As the financial and related services sector accounts for 12% of GDP, it’s quite easy to see why investors are concerned about the pound.

All in all, the outlook for sterling looks gloomy. GBP/USD breached below multiyear minimums. Although it’s oversold after the rapid decline, bearish risks have increased. Resistance is at 1.2500, 1.2650 and 1.2790. Support is at 1.2000 and 1.1850. Next week British economic calendar is almost empty, so traders will watch comments from British and European officials on Brexit as well as US data.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10801

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for October 10-14
10/7/2016

USD/JPY took off from 101.20 to 104.00, almost reaching September highs. The main driver of the pair was the strength of the US dollar on the upbeat American economic figures. On Friday, however, US currency declined on lower-than-expected NFP figures.

Japanese monetary authorities are probably really glad that the demand for the yen has weakened as it seems that they are not able to generate the yen’s weakness on their own. A weaker yen should help Japanese exporters and encourage the too-low inflation. At the same time, the current situation emphasizes that the Bank of Japan’s lack of power to influence the market: the reaction to the BOJ’s September policy adjustments was much less strong.

The pair broke above 2016 resistance line in the 102.00 area. These levels also correspond to 50-day MA and will now act as support for the greenback. Decline below this point will once again give power to the bears. Resistance lies at 104.40 and 105.50.

Note that even though USD/JPY can keep trying to show short-term gains thanks to the external environment such as higher oil prices, the longer-term the bullish move will unlikely be sustainable as there’s no additional fuel provided to the pair by the Japanese side of things.

Next week there won’t be many news from Japan, so focus on the US releases. Japanese banks will be closed on Monday because of the bank holiday. On Tuesday Japan will release current account figures and economy watchers’ sentiment. Tertiary industry activity is due on Thursday. Watch China’s trade balance on Thursday and inflation on Friday – these figures will have an impact on the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, demand for the yen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10802

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & German Trade Balance: Not an enough catalyst for today's moves
10/10/2016

Today at 06:00 GMT will be released the German trade balance’s figures and it seems that we could expect an increase from 19.4B to 20.0B for August. It should be noted that Eurozone has been living a surplus in terms of exports and the data for Germany is still showing some positive numbers, despite the latest two releases, where we saw some numbers below the forecasted. Today’s liquidity should be slow, as economic calendar’s data will be little, because of holidays in North America.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a complex structure in the short-term, while the pair remains to trade below the 200 SMA. One could expect a rise to the 1.1227 level, but today’s events shouldn’t be enough catalysts to move the pair across the board. That’s why we can expect very technical moves for the EUR/USD and eventually, it can find dynamic resistance at 200 SMA to resume the bearish bias.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10803

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: bulls are going to counterattack
10/10/2016

On the EUR/JPY chart, "bears" are trying to return to the boundaries of the triangle. If they succeed, the euro may fall to the level of 114.24 (38.2% Fibonacci of the downward wave). In contrast, a rebound from the diagonal support will create the prerequisites for the "bullish" trend restoration. Its Targets are located at the levels of 117.24 (61.8%) and 117.8 (88.6% in the "Shark" pattern).

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10804/Screenshot_2016_10_10_08_16_10.png[/IG]

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, the correction located near the support line at 114.9 is going to be completed. There is a target at 127.2% of AB = CD, and the level of 38.2% of the last upward wave. The next point of the entry into longs will be sought at 114,24-114,44.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10804/Screenshot_2016_10_10_08_16_25.png

Recommendations:

BUY 114,9 SL 114,35 TP1 115,74 TP2 117,24,

BUY 114,25 SL 113,7 TP1 115,74 TP2 117,24.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10804

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: will franc return to the triangle ?
10/10/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, "bulls" failed to fulfill target at 0.984. Afterwards, there was a there was a rapid rollback. "Bears" may try to return to the boundaries of the triangle. Rebound from the resistance at 0.974 will create prerequisites for opening long positions. Target 88.6% (0.9865) of the Shark pattern has not been fulfilled, so, there is a room for improvement.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, if "bears" fail to attack levels at 0.974 (50% Fibonacci retracement from the last upward wave) and 0.9705 (88.6% target of the Shark pattern), it will be a signal for "bulls" to attack.

Recommendations: BUY 0,974 SL 0,9685 TP1 0,984 TP2 0,9865, BUY 0,9705 SL 0,965 TP1 0,984 TP2 0,9865

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10805

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, October 10th
10/10/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 44 200 ? + 90 607 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1224; 1.1247; 1.1277; 1.1297
Closest support levels 1.1174(59?); 1.1138; 1.1113; 1.1084
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1174, with target points at 1.1138 and 1.1113
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1224 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1247 and 1.1277

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 25 900 ? - 13 808 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2537; 1.2571; 1.2591; 1.2614
Closest support levels 1.2380; 1.2348; 1.2328; 1.2306
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2380, with target points at 1.2348 and 1.2328
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2537 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2571 and 1.2591

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 28 527 ? - 24 479 ?
Closest resistance levels 103.12; 103.48(33?); 103.66; 103.86
Closest support levels 102.50; 102.23; 102.03; 101.79
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.12, with the target points at 103.48 and 103.66
Alternative scenario Moving below 102.50 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.23 and 102.03

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 11 071 ? - 12 408 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3294; 1.3323; 1.3349; 1.3387
Closest support levels 1.3226; 1.3205; 1.3173; 1.3134
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3294, with the target points at 1.3323 and 1.3349
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3226 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3205 and 1.3173

EUR JPY GBP CAD USD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10806

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: under the Cloud resistance
10/10/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1170, 1.1130; resistance – 1.1200.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1180; SL — 1.1200; TP1 — 1.1130; TP2 – 1.1100.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling down Tenkan-sen; bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10807

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: consolidation in the Cloud
10/10/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7590, 0.7575; resistance – 0.7625, 0.7650, 0.7690.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7590; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7750.

Reason: a strong support near 0.7600; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10808

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: consolidation may continue
10/10/2016

Technical levels: support – 102.90, 102.20; resistance – 103.40, 103.80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.00; SL — 102.80; TP1 — 103.80; TP2 — 104.20.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the market is overbought yet.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10809

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" stopped bears
10/10/2016

We’ve got a “Bear’s Trap” under the previously broken “Triangle”, so the price faced a resistance at 1.1196 afterwards. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.1165 – 1.1145.

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between the nearest resistance at 1.1204 and the 55 Moving Average. So, the price is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.1219 – 1.1232 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.1168 – 1.1152.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10810

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: Moving Averages waiting for bulls
10/10/2016

We’ve got a bullish “Thorn” at the new historical low, which led to the current upward movement. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue rising towards a resistance at 1.2677. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline in the direction of a support at 1.2226.

The price has been moving in a flat’s range on the one-hour chart. It’s likely that the price is going to reach an area between the 34 Moving Average and the closest resistance at 1.2621. If we see a pullback from here, then bears will try to deliver a price movement towards a support at 1.2349 – 1.2226.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10811