Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver wave E
10/10/2016

As we can see on the four-hours chart, wave D has been ended in a form of a double zigzag. Moreover, we’ve got a pullback from 0/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which points to a possibility to have wave E of (Y) in the short term. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

There’s a zigzag, which was formed in wave [y] of D. Also, we’ve got an upward impulse in wave [a], so bears are likely going to deliver wave during the day. If we see a pullback from 2/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave [c] of E shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10812

 

[riki143]

Takeaways from the second presidential debate
10/10/2016

It was one of the most negative and acrimonious debate in US history. Americans have always been proud of a sacred tradition of a presidential debate where nominees trade barbs over their vision of the country’s future; the debate could help the voters to make their choice and define a well-deserved president. But this debate left many Americans embarrassed, if not insulted. Never before they heard such constant vile comments, rants and empty rhetoric.

The tone of the last presidential debate has been shaped by Donald Trump’s lewd and demeaning comments on the sexual aggression towards women. The Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton was accused of her use of a private email server when she was US secretary of state and threatened to be placed behind the bars, if her counterpart is elected. This debate was more of a blame game. Throughout the 90-minute exchange, which included questions posed by some people from the audience, they exchanged insults, defended themselves and tried to justify their wrong doings.

Well, there were some flashes of good reasoning in candidates’ speeches. They’ve covered several topics (migration issues, multiculturalism, Obamacare). They discussed Syrian War. Trump refused to take a hard line on Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assed saying that they do right things; they are bombing ISIS trying to defend their own citizens from imminent threat coming from radicalized Muslims. Clinton said that Russian and al-Assad should be accountable for all these atrocities in Syria and numerous war crimes they’ve committed by bombing eastern Aleppo.

All this cross-talk ended in Hillary’s victory. In contrast, Trump’s poll numbers are going to fall even further after his first performance during the first debate and the video tape where he bragged about groping women and sexually assaulting them. Although, many analysts admit that he managed to plow through the numerous accusations and that he sounded more convincing than Hillary with her rehearsed answers.

How all this empty talk affected the markets? Well, it seems that they decided to ignore it. The second presidential debate failed to become a major market mover of today’s trading session, as nothing worthy has been said. Neither Americans nor traders didn’t get any clues on the US future.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10813

 

[riki143]

Gold’s recovery from the last week downfall
10/10/2016

Last week we saw that gold fell sharply as the dollar surged on the speculations of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting. The data releases coming from the US were also weighting on the gold’s derisive attempts to growth. On Friday, however, the precious metal managed to stabilize as US released weaker-than-expected labor market figures.

Today’s technical picture shows us the opposite. The gold prices gained their bullish momentum at 1250.56 level (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) and now they are surging towards the new resistance lines (the next one will be located at 1277.51 – 5th October max). And in this situation my question will be following: how long the gold prices will rise? Is there a steady bullish trend? Let’s turn to the technical chart and figure this out.

The quotes managed to surpass the resistance line located against 200-day MA and now moving towards the next significant level at 1300 (plotted near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). I suggest to look at the stochastic oscillator which is now located below the 20 oversold threshold. From this we may conclude there is a room for rise in a short-term. But we don’t expect this bullish trend to be long-lasting since there will be FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday which could become a landmark event for gold. If the Fed’s members confirm their intention to raise rates, the gold price may fall again down to the significant support level at 1248.87 (38.2 Fibonacci retracement). Meanwhile, you may snatch a certain sum of money on the gold’s short-term rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10816

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0580
10/10/2016

AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0580
Next buy target - 1.0740
AUD/NZD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the (c)-wave of the minor ABC correction 2 from the middle of September. The price earlier broke sharply through the resistance level 1.0580 (which stopped the (a)-wave of the active ABC correction 2) – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

AUD/NZD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target standing at the strong resistance level 1.0740 (which reversed the previous corrective waves 2 and (ii) and which stands close to the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous extended downward impulse from April).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10817

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD falling inside minor impulse wave (c)
10/10/2016

NZD/USD falling inside minor impulse wave (c)
Next sell target 0.7080
NZD/USD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (c), which recently broke through the strong support zone lying at the intersection of the multiple support levels: the support trendline of the daily up channel from May, pivotal support level 0.7250, 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from July and the 50-day moving average. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave (c).

NZD/USD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7080 (previous monthly low from August). Strong resistance now stands at 0.7250.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10819

 

[riki143]

While cable is crashing, banks batten on its misfortunes
10/10/2016

Pound depreciated 4.2% last week, which it its worst performance since June 24. The slide accelerated after prime-minister Theresa May said, that she is going to trigger Article 50 in March next year. With GBP crashing to its 31-year low, many GBP short positions of the main stakeholders (CitiFX, Societe Generale and Credit Suisse) hit their long-term targets and got into big money. While many traders abstain from selling after tremendous GBP slump, suspecting consolidation in near-term scenario at 1.23-1.26 levels, the National Australia Bank (NAB) started its trading week with a new short GBP/USD position.

NAB decided not to keep to a conservative trading approach of waiting for the currency stabilization and initiated the trade at 1.2414 targeting 1.16 with a wide stop at 1.2750. This decision was taken due to the fact that the pound revealed its weakness during the 7th October session slumping precipitately in a matter of time. The trending cable is perhaps the easiest directional victim for investors, according to NAB.

NAB is short GBP/USD from 1.2414 with a target at 1.16 and a stop at 1.2750 since the 9th October trading session.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10820

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to achieve support
10/10/2016

The 55 & 34 Moving Averages acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Two Crows” at the local high. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a resistance by the 13 Moving Average. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on after a local upward correction.

There’s a bearish correction in progress. We’ve got a bearish “Engulfing” at the local high, which has been confirmed by the last “Three Methods” pattern. So, the price is likely going to test nearest support line. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10821

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: resistance waiting for price
10/10/2016

We’ve got a “High Wave” and an “Engulfing” patterns, so bulls are likely going to test the upper “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s an “Engulfing” at the last high. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have another decline right after the current bullish correction.

There’s a “Harami”, which has been confirmed enough. Considering that the price is trading above the last “Window”, it’s likely that the market is going to reach the nearest resistance. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a downward price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10822

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD & Oil prices w/ Housing Starts: More weakness for the Loonie?
10/11/2016

Canadian Dollar started the week with very volatile moves because of recent OPEC developments and statement by Russian President, Vladimir Putin. Now it’s being favoured by the market sentiment and helped to push lower the USD/CAD across the board and today at 12:15 GMT we expect the release of Housing Starts for September in Canada, where the consensus is an increase from 182,7K to 190K and it can be a mid-to-high macro event in terms of volatility.

The technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is showing that a bullish trend line can be tested soon, following the strong pullback made during Monday’s session. There is also a support zone at the 1.3140 level, where the Loonie may gain momentum to resume the upward bias. If CAD remains strengthening in coming hours, then a decline towards the 1.3090 level is possible, while a breakout above the 1.3237 level should open the doors to test 1.3294.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10823

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears admit their defeat
10/11/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bears" continue to dominate the market and fullfil the target we defined for them earlier (see here). A breakout of resistance line at 104.45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave XA) may activate the target 78.6% of the Gartley pattern. Support should be sought near the 103.45 mark.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a steady upward trend. Traders should buy the dollar against the yen when pullbacks to the support line at 103.8 (88.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last downward wave) occur. AB = CD pattern helps to identify the targets of the northward rally. They are located near the markers 104.55 (126.2%), 105.05 (161.8%) and 105.9 (224%).

Recommendations: hold longs, BUY 103,8 SL 103,25 TP1 105,05 TP2 105,9.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10826

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls set a trap
10/11/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there was another test of the lower boundary of the triangle. If "bears" manage to attack the support, the quotes may fall down to the 1.1055 (target 127.2% of the pattern AB = CD), 1,104 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of XA wave) and 1.1 (target 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern) marks.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, if "bears" fail to test the lower boundary of the downward trade channel, "bulls" may ?ounterattack once they fullfil the target 161,8% of the "Three Indians" pattern.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,1055 SL 1,1 TP1 1,1160 TP2 1,1205

BUY 1,1 SL 1,0945 TP1 1,116 TP2 1,1205.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10827

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: on the September highs
10/11/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.50; resistance – 104.00.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.50; SL — 103.30; TP1 — 104.00; TP2 — 104.60.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; an irregular deadcross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10828

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Bulls have won
10/11/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1130; resistance – 1.1170.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1160; SL — 1.1180; TP1 — 1.1100; TP2 – 1.1070.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but narrowing channel of Tenkan-Kijun; bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud; the prices are under the lines of Indicator.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10829

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, October 11th
10/11/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 723 ? + 15 011 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1199; 1.1226; 1.1245; 1.1269
Closest support levels 1.1120; 1.1100; 1.1074; 1.1043
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1120, with target points at 1.1100 and 1.1074
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1199 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1226 and 1.1245

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 2 234 ? + 2 344 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2436; 1.2468; 1.2487; 1.2508
Closest support levels 1.2271; 1.2251; 1.2228; 1.2203
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2271, with target points at 1.2251 and 1.2228
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2436 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2468 and 1.2487

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 1 071 ? + 224 ?
Closest resistance levels 103.87; 104.18; 104.38; 104.65
Closest support levels 103.02; 102.67; 102.43; 102.15
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.87, with the target points at 104.18 and 104.38
Alternative scenario Moving below 103.02 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.67 and 102.43

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 233 ? + 584 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3215; 1.3245; 1.3284; 1.3335
Closest support levels 1.3129; 1.3110; 1.3080; 1.3045
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3215, with the target points at 1.3245 and 1.3284
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3129 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3110 and 1.3080

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10830

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to deliver new low
10/11/2016

The price faced a resistance at 1.1196, which led to form a “Double Top” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1113 – 1.1093 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1165 – 1.1181.

Bears found a support at 1.1122, so the price is consolidating. However, the pair is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.1103 – 1.1093 during the day. At the same, bulls will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10831

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on
10/11/2016

The price is consolidating. So, bears are likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2226 in the short term. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an achievement of the closest resistance at 1.2476.

We’ve got a flat on the one-hour chart. Therefore, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.2349 – 1.2226 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10832

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: a new upsurge? Let’s ask banks
10/11/2016

There is a steady bullish trend on the technical chart of USD/JPY currency pair. Yesterday yen showed a rather tepid reaction to better than expected trade balance figures. The data showed that the nation exported more goods abroad than it imported (the nation’s balance was ¥243.2 versus expected ¥116.5 bln). In contrast, dollar managed to strengthen its positions in the course of the Asian session as Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said that the Fed will have to peg a rate hike in December.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reacted to the pair’s upsurge with opening longs. MS is going to buy once the pair falls near 102.5, while GS is going scale into long positions from the present levels and add through 105 placing a stop loss at 101.84.

Morgan Stanley makes its projections based on macroeconomic analysis, while Goldman Sachs operates through technical charts.

Morgan Stanley believes that JPY will continue to depreciate against US dollar as Bank of Japan proceeds with its brand-new monetary measures. They sustain bank profitability and allow yen to fall further. In addition, the BoJ is determined to issue more long-term bonds and to provide a fiscal stimulus for staggering Japan’s economy in the next few months. MS sees a buying opportunity once the quotes reach the 102.5 level and expect the USD/JPY to rise up to the 108.1 mark.

Goldman Sachs pays attention to the fact that the quotes reached their January highs and closed above the 100-day MA. It defined its next target at 104.86 (the August low). If the resistance line at this level is tested successfully, the quotes may rise up to the 108 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10834

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls ready to deliver wave E
10/11/2016

Wave D is taking form of a double zigzag. Previously, a triangle has been formed in wave [x]. Therefore, it’s likely that wave (c) of [y] is going to end soon, so there’s an opportunity to have wave E of (Y) afterwards.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a bearish impulse in wave (c). In this case, if a pullback from -1/8 Murrey Math Line (P=200) happens, bulls are likely going to deliver another upward price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10835

 

[riki143]

GBP/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave
10/11/2016

GBP/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave
Next sell targets - 1.6000 and 1.5780
GBP/CAD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) of the extended primary impulse wave ? from the end of May. The price earlier broke through the support level 1.6680 (lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from July) – which accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3.

GBP/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.6000 (which reversed previous minor impulse wave (i)) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.5780.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10836

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP reached buy targets 0.8900 and 0.9000
10/11/2016

EUR/GBP reached buy targets 0.8900 and 0.9000
Next buy target 0.9200
EUR/GBP continues to rise after the price earlier broke through the two consecutive resistance levels 0.8900 and 0.9000 - both of which were set as the buy targets in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.9000 coincided with the breakout of the resistance trendline of the wide weekly up channel from November of 2015 – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

EUR/GBP is expected to rise further in the active impulse wave 5 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from September) in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9200 (target price for the completion of the impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10837