Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD broke support zone
10/12/2016

EUR/USD broke support zone
Next sell target 1.0950
EUR/USD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3 from August. The pair earlier broke through the support zone lying between the strong support level 1.1150 (which has been reversing the price form August) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from July.

The breakout of the aforementioned support zone intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair. EUR/USD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0950 (which previously reversed the price sharply in June and July).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10860

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie moves up
10/13/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, quotes came closer to the important resistance line at 1.3306 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last long downward wave). If this resistance line is broken out, the quotes will continue their rally towards targets 200% and 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern and "Crab" pattern (1,358-1,36).

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, successful test of the resistance line at 1.3295 will create the prerequisites for the continuation of the quotes' rally in the direction of the upper limit of the upward trade channel (1.3415). There is also the target 161.8% in the "Three Indians" pattern.

Recommendation: BUY 1,3295 SL 1,324 TP1 1,3415 TP2 1,358 TP3 1,36

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10861

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound reached the Rubicon
10/13/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, pound tries to consolidate. Targets in the AB = CD and "Deep-sea crab" patterns help us to indicate the consolidation area at 1,2109-1,2317. If quotes go beyond these margins, there might be either a correction or restoration of the downward trend towards the convergence zone located at 1,1858-1,1884 levels.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the descending triangle has been formed. Breakout of its lower boundary at 1.21 might lead to quotes' fall towards the convergence zone that we defined on the daily chart. Successful test of the resistance line at 1.2315 may turn into correction at the 1,239 and 1,248 levels.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,2315 SL 1,2260 TP1 1,239 TP2 1,248

SELL 1,21 SL 1,2155 TP1 1,1885 TP2 1,186

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10862

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: falling to the 3-W lows
10/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7520, 0.7490; resistance – 0.7560, 0.7590.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7490/95; SL — 0.7470; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7590.

Reason: a strong support near 0.7490; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10863

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the Bulls are realized its targets
10/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.80; SL — 103.60; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a gold cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices can found the support on the Kijun-sen or Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10864

 

[riki143]

Morning brief October 13, 2016
10/13/2016

The main trigger of the session was the release of the FOMC Minutes that indicated that a growing number of committee members are pulling in the direction of hiking (the FOMC voted 7-3 to hold off a rate hike at Sept. meeting). It seems that the Chair Janet Yellen’s call weighted on the FOMC’s intention to raise rate. She stressed that August steadiness in labor force participation still had room to increase and suggested to wait for more positive signals to confirm the job market recovery. The Fed’s hesitation on when to rise rates and increase in number of the UK new buyer enquiries gave a tiny support to pound which lifted itself to 9 – 10 odd points. Euro and franc remained in a relatively small ranges.

The major focus of the latest Asian session was September trade data from China. It showed reduction of export casting a renewed shadow over global growth prospects. The market response was a bit delayed, but when EUR/USD surged adding 30 points from its session low, while AUD/USD dropped having posted 3-month lows at 0.7520. NZD will unlikely show us any strength today; in the course of the last session it rose at about 20 points. USD/JPY fell once the release from China has been published. We might see more gains for the yen and other safe-haven assets with the gloomy sentiments over the future of the global economy.

Gold is gaining momentum from its recent downfall; it lifted itself up to the $1255.5 and now continues to pave the way to the new resistance line at $1262,51 near the 200-day MA.

Oil prices experienced a 1% drop overnight after OPEC members reported its output hit an 8-year high in September. This announcement offset optimism over the group's pledge to restrict output.

The economic calendar for today will unlikely bring us lots of shake things. There will be US unemployment claims which could reach 252,000 this week, according to the forecasts (an indicator of the overall economic health of the country as consumer spending is affected by labor-market conditions). And also we recommend you to keep an eye on the US crude oil inventories.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10865

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: support waiting for bears
10/13/2016

The price has been declining since Monday. Bears faced a support at 1.1011, so there’s a local consolidation in progress. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0978 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under a resistance at 1.1032. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1000 – 1.0978 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.1045 – 1.1069.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10866

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: price going to test support once again
10/13/2016

We’ve got a downward consolidation on the four-hours chart. In this case, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.2089 shortly. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.2476.

The price has been moving in a range of the current flat. Nevertheless, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach a support at 1.2089 during the day. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will have a chance to deliver a correction in the direction of the 89 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10867

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave (iv) coming soon
10/13/2016

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10868/Image20161013102336001.png

We’ve got a wedge in wave (i), which led to a decline in wave (iii). However, the current bearish impulse is likely going to end soon. So, if a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction, which could be wave (iv).

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10868/Image20161013102336002.png

There’s a possible diagonal triangle, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Therefore, if we see a pullback from 0/8 MM Level, then bulls will probably try to set up a correction. The main intraday target for wave (iv) is 2/8 MM Level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10868

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, October 13th
10/13/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 66 ? + 10 325 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1086; 1.1118; 1.1141; 1.1167
Closest support levels 1.1007; 1.0974; 1.0950; 1.0922
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1007, with target points at 1.0974 and 1.0950
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1086 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1118 and 1.1141

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 3 508 ? + 1 944 ?
Closest resistance levels 104.38; 104.78 (61?); 104.99; 105.23
Closest support levels 103.48; 103.27; 103.02; 102.73
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.38, with the target points at 104.78 and 104.99
Alternative scenario Moving below 103.48 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 103.27 and 103.02

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 946 ? + 802 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3294; 1.3324; 1.3367; 1.3419
Closest support levels 1.3208; 1.3189; 1.3163; 1.3127
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3294, with the target points at 1.3324 and 1.3367
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3208 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3189 and 1.3163

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10869

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
10/13/2016

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 104.30
USD/JPY today reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 104.30 (which also earlier reversed the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in September, as can be seen from the daily USD/JPY chart below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous primary ABC correction ? from July.

With the daily Stochastic indicator still moving in the overbought zone - USD/JPY is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support 103.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 104.30.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10873

 

[riki143]

Views of the major banks on the FOMC minutes
10/13/2016

Salvador Dali "The Persistence of Memory" FOMC minutes revealed the persistence of the US interest rate

Yesterday we finally got the FOMC minutes and found out what went wrong in September, why Fed’s senior officials decided to keep the present interest rate on hold. The minutes added fuel to expectations for near-term hike. But we shouldn’t be too excited, since the release has also revealed a great share of disagreement among the FOMC members. Several officials see a hike as appropriate to present situation, while others are rather skeptical of the US economy revival. The later ones preferred to wait for additional evidences of improvement. So, will “doves” change their stance in the upcoming meeting? It’s still unclear, although we must admit that hawkish sentiments persist. Let’s see what major banks think about yesterday’s FOMC minutes.

According to Mattias Bruer and Royce Mendes, the rate should rise relatively soon; and this was confirmed by several FOMC members, although there is a healthy amount of disagreement about the extent of remaining slack in the US economy.

Danske Bank noted that we are dealing with a very divided FOMC and that “hawks” and “doves” will fight to the death. Hawks believe that the US economy can overheat if employment rate increases over the past six years. In addition, the low rates create financial instability. Doves think that it’s too soon to raise hike as core inflation still runs below 2% and there are no signs of inflation looming on the horizon. Danske decided to stick its non-consensus view that the Fed will stay on hold once again for the rest of the year. The combination of weak GDP data over the last quarters still weights on the labor market and wage growth. The low inflation expectations and core inflation do not exceed the Fed’s target, therefore, the Fed may afford itself not to change its interest rate. The bank believes that the Presidential election won’t allow FOMC members to raise rates. Danske suggests to wait until Friday when we get retail sales data and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech. If retail sales are weak and if Yellen sounds dovish at her press conference, the rate hike will unlikely be a reality.

Barclays admits that the FOMC revealed a discord within committee on various issues. These divisions could not dissipate at the next meetings which means that a rate hike in December is not a closed issue. FOMC members saw that the statistical data changed little since their September meeting, although there were considerable labor market developments, consumer sentiment has risen, labor market condition has improved appreciably this year. But whether it will be enough to kick the committee into action is still not clear.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10874

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as resistance
10/13/2016

There’s a bearish rally on the way, but we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern at the last low. So, the price is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line in the short term. If a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have another low. As we can see on the Daily chart, here isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, it’s likely to have one more test of the closest support line.

The last “Three Methods” pattern led to a couple of new highs, but there’s an “Engulfing” pattern. If it confirms, the price is likely going to reach the nearest “Window”, which could act as a resistance. If we see a pullback from this “Window”, there’ll be a chance to have a new low shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10875

 

[riki143]

How to build your own trading strategy
10/13/2016

Many people believe that markets are random, so they prefer to trade on a hunch entirely relying on their gut feelings. They might be right; sometimes it is possible to scoop a big profit moon walking down the Wall Street, but this approach is not free from risk. Experienced traders rely on the thoroughly elaborated trading strategies. They know that although there might be some deviation in market prices, quotes do follow certain patterns. So, if there is a grain of rationality in market movements, it’s better to have a formulaic approach to forecast them. That’s why we encourage you to build your own trading strategy.

Most trading strategies include two basic elements: the setup and trigger.

Setup is a favorable market condition, a rather significant but not sufficient for the opening of the position. The setup may consist of one or more filters. It may be a particular location of quotes, candlesticks or indicators that you apply to the technical chart.

Filters are designed to protect traders from receiving false trading signals, but be moderate in plotting them to your trading desk. If you apply many filters, you risk not to notice trading signals at all and miss favorable trading conditions.

The second important element is trigger. It is a technical signal that indicates the right moment for entering the market.

Once you define the setup and triggers you should:

Ask yourself who you are: scalper, day trader, medium-term trader or long-term trader
Choose a timeframe – monthly, weekly, daily, hourly and ext.
Evaluate the size of your financial assets (because every strategy demands different amount of money)
Define how much you would like to get from a certain deal (you should calculate the profit form a particular deal and choose time when you have to close your position)
Be ready for primary financial losses (it’s almost impossible to build a profitable strategy without any sacrifices). Off course, you may master your techniques on demo-account. But sooner or later you will have to play in the real forex market.
Decide which market condition, you’re looking take advantage of. As you know, there three primary conditions: trend, range and breakout. Each of these conditions exhibits its own market tone, so, you should decide in which sort of market conditions you’re more successful.
In this article, we defined primary steps that you should take to build your own strategy. In the next articles, we will deliver some profitable strategies introduced by financial gurus.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10876

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: pullback from upper "Window"
10/13/2016

There’s an “Engulfing” pattern, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. In this case, the price is likely going to decline towards the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a resistance by the upper “Window”. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average.

We’ve got a pullback from the nearest “Window”. Also, there’s a confirmed “Engulfing” pattern. Considering the last “Harami” pattern, the market is likely going to decline towards the closest support line.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10877

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD downfall and recent revival
10/13/2016

The EUR/USD currency pair has been falling precipitously for three days in a row, but failed to break out the 1.10 support line. The USD was the main mover of the pair since there were no news from the Eurozone and dormant European Central Bank. The story with Deutsche Bank paled into insignificance having created a stir over the bank’s inability to pay the fine off. The US dollar gained momentum before the September’s FOMC minutes which were expected to be rather hawkish. Now, when the release revealed a certain share of disagreement among the FOMC members, the euro is rising from the ashes.

The recent euro recovery could be explained from the purely technical perspective. The RSI Oscillator on the daily timeframe fell into the oversold area. From this we may conclude that there should be some sideways consolidation in the range of the 1.11 – 1.103 levels. The problems with Brexit and European banking system threaten to result in the another downfall, though. The DB’s situation with its $14.5 bln fine remains unresolved. In addition, it has recently been announced that Deutsche Banks will have to pay $9.5 m for failings in its equity research department. The next trading sessions could be critical for the EUR/USD, especially if Fed’s Chair J. Yellen sounds more hawkish than usually at tomorrow press conference.

So, we believe that today’s euro revival is not long-lasting. If quotes fall again and 1.10 handle fails to hold, there might be a further drop towards the 1.0950 (July’s low).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10878

 

[riki143]

AUD/CHF reversed from resistance level 0.7500
10/13/2016

AUD/CHF reversed from resistance level 0.7500
Next sell target - 0.7400
AUD/CHF recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.7500, which is the lower boundary of the powerful resistance zone which has been reversing the price from April, as you can see from the daily AUD/CHF chart below. This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.

AUD/CHF is expected to correct down further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7400 (standing close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the middle of September).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10872

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY ahead of US Retail Sales: Opportunity to buy the dips?
10/14/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT we’ll have a key economic indicator from the United States, as the Retail Sales could bring some volatility to the markets, before the American session’s opening. Remind that August’s data came as weaker than expected, with a decline to -0.3%. For September’s release, market analysts are expecting an increase of 0.6% and a better-than-expected reading should help the greenback to recover the ground lost during Thursday’s session.

The technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart is still bullish, despite the retracement seen from the highs made above the 104.00 handle. Now, we should expect that the 200 SMA acts as a dynamic support across the board, where the USD/JPY pair could get some momentum in order to resume the overall bullish structure. By the other hand, if we see a consolidation below the 103.38 level, then it can test the 102.84 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10879

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie is wandering in trade channels
10/14/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, Target 0.7525 has been fulfilled. Quotes rebounded from the lower boundaries of the long-term upward and short-term downward trade channels. Successful retest of the support line at 0.7521 might cause the Australian dollar to fall in the direction of 0.745. On the contrary, a successful test of the 0.7627 resistance line can restore the upward trade channel.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, after "Head and shoulders" and AB=CD patterns had been realised, the quotes went out from the downward trade channel. If "bulls" break out the resistance line at 0.7627. the pair will move towards 0.771.

Recommendation: BUY 0,7627 SL 0,7572 TP 0,771

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10880

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears showed weakness
10/14/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, quotes returned to the boundary of the descending trade channel, it shows that the "bearish" trend has been restored. To win back "bulls" will need to break out the resistance line at 1.1065. If they fail to do so, the "Bat" pattern can transform into the "Crab" pattern. Target 127.2% of the "Crab" pattern is located near the 1,084 mark.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, to return to the boundaries of the downward trade channel quotes will need to break out the resistance line at 1.1065 and activate the "Bat" pattern.Target 88,6% of the "Bat" pattern is located at the 1,118 level. Alternatively, update of the October low will cause quotes to rise.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10881