Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: downtrend may continue
10/14/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2190; resistance – 1.2240/60.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2170; SL — 1.2190; TP1 — 1.2100; TP2 — 1.2030.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; falling lines of the Indicator.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10882

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: return to the Cloud
10/14/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7570, 0.7540; resistance – 0.7590, 0.7610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7580; SL — 0.7560; TP1 — 0.7640; TP2 — 0.7590.

2. Sell — 0.7550; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7300; TP2 — 0.7670.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A; a strong resistance near 0.7600.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10883

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the Bulls are continued the buying
10/14/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 104.00; SL — 103.80; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a gold cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices found the support on the Kijun-sen; the rising lines of Indicator Ichimoku

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10884/04-usdjpyh4(42).png[/IMG]

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10884

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to test support once again
10/14/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0978, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern. However, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0984. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1045 – 1.1069.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, bulls faced a resistance on the 34 Moving Average line, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern here. In this case, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.1000 – 1.1098 during the day. Considering a “V-Bottom” pattern, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.1057 – 1.1069 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10885

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, October 14th
10/14/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 42 045 ? + 71 223 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1111; 1.1136; 1.1154; 1.1176
Closest support levels 1.1030; 1.1008; 1.0980; 1.0948
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1030, with target points at 1.1008 and 1.0980
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1111 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1136 and 1.1154

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 437 ? + 1 138 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2347; 1.2396; 1.2417; 1.2441
Closest support levels 1.2206; 1.2172; 1.2151; 1.2128
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2206, with target points at 1.2172 and 1.2151
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2347 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2396 and 1.2417

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 3 989 ? + 2 745 ?
Closest resistance levels 103.98; 104.36; 104.61; 104.91
Closest support levels 102.85; 102.65; 102.42; 102.13
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.98, with the target points at 104.36 and 104.61
Alternative scenario Moving below 102.85 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.65 and 102.42

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 7 ? + 2 669 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3207; 1.3249; 1.3286; 1.3335
Closest support levels 1.3146; 1.3127; 1.3098; 1.3058
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3146, with the target points at 1.3127 and 1.3098
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3207 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3249 and 1.3286

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10886

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pullback from Moving Average
10/14/2016

The price is consolidating along the nearest level at 1.2226. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2089. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward movement in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.2476.

There’s a flat, which is taking place under the Moving Averages. So, the pair is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.2132 – 1.2089 during the day. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to reach the 89 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10887

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: zigzag in wave (iv) going to move on
10/14/2016

Bears are developing an impulse in wave on the four-hours chart. However, we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), so wave (iv) has been started. In this case, the current correction is likely going to be continued, which means we can have a new local high soon.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s an ended impulse in wave (iii). Finally, bears faced a support on 0/8 MM Level, which led to form wave a of (iv). Therefore, if wave b ends during the day, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave c of (iv).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10888

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD outlook for October 17 -21
10/14/2016

The pair experienced some swings this week. The USD was a main mover as the September’s FOMC minutes was in the spotlight, while the Australian domestic calendar was relatively quiet. Some changes in the AUD/USD were caused by economics data that came from China. The pair popped up to 0.7588 on Friday after the CPI for China in September beat expectations and eased some concerns about the health of the world's second-biggest economy. Earlier this week, Aussie experienced considerable drop having posted 3-month lows at 0.7520 as the sour Chinese trade data had been released on Thursday. China is considered to be a main trade destination for Australian commodities. So, we will continue to keep an eye on Chinese data next week (there will be GDP, industrial production releases on Oct 19) that could bring some volatility to AUD/USD technical chart.

Now the quotes managed to break out a key resistance line at 0.7588 and continue their rally towards the 0.76200 mark located above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Hawkish tone of the Fed’s Chair J. Yellen speaking at the conference later this day may curb Aussie’s precipitous rally, though. RSI Oscillator on the 4H timeframe moved to the overbought area, so, there could be a change of the trend soon. If there is a successful test of the 0.7633 resistance line; the quotes can move further towards 0.7690 mark located near the September highs. If the US dollar gets some additional support from Yellen’s speech, the quotes may return to their key level at 0.7588 or fall even further down to the 0.7506 level (13th October low).

Next week, on Monday we will hear Philip Lowe, a head of the Australian central bank, speaking. Then, on Tuesday, we will get a change to skim through the minutes of the last Reserve Bank Board’s meeting and find out why the RBA’s senior officials decided to keep interest rate on hold. On Thursday, the market will watch employment change and unemployment rate releases that could bring some changes to the AUD/USD chart.

The US dollar may gain momentum from the CPI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims releases if they show good data. Some shockwaves to the chart can be sent on Oct 19, after the final US presidential debate comes to its end.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10889

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY broke sideways price range
10/14/2016

AUD/JPY broke sideways price range
Next buy targets - 80.00 and 81.00
AUD/JPY today broke above the resistance level 78.70 (former upper boundary of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from the start of August). The lower boundary of this price range stands at the support level 76.20 (low of the previous waves (a) and B). The breakout of the resistance level 78.70 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from June.

AUD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy targets at the resistance levels 80.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from 2015) and 81.00 (target price for the completion of impulse (iii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10890

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave
10/14/2016

GBP/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave
Next sell target - 1.6500
GBP/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which previously broke through the two consecutive support levels: 1.6730 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and 1.6300. The breakout of these support levels accelerated the active impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) of the primary ?-wave from May.

GBP/AUD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.6500 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active intermediate impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10891

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Doji" on Moving Average
10/14/2016

There’s an “Engulfing” pattern at the last low, but a bearish “Harami” arrived afterwards, so the price is likely going to test the nearest support once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s another “Engulfing”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, if a pullback from the closest support happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

We’ve got a resistance by the 34 Moving Average. Also, there’s a bearish “Doji”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, sellers are likely going to test the last low in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10892

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to break "Window"
10/14/2016

The 21 & 13 Moving Averages have acted as a support, so bulls are likely going to break the upper “Window”. If we see a pullback from the nearest resistance level, there’ll be a chance to have a downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. However, if a pullback from the “Window” be on the table, then bears will probably try to deliver a correction.

We’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern at the local low, which led to the current upward price movement. If we see a pullback from the closest support line, the last high is likely going to be broken shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10893

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016

It was another bullish week for the US currency. US dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the greenback against 6 currencies of America’s trading partners, rose above July highs in the 97.60 area. A close above this level will open the way for further gains to 98.50 and 99.00. Support is at 96.00 and 95.15.

According to CME, the possibility of the Fed’s December rate hike accounts for 63%. FOMC meeting minutes showed that the central bank is leaning towards raising rates. Several FOMC members said a rate hike was needed “relatively soon”, although speculation that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen may be too dovish to allow a December rate hike is limiting the power of USD bulls. The Fed will keep watching the incoming US economic data in order to make its judgement by December. The regulator is expected to leave policy unchanged at November meeting and move only after the Unites States elect a new President. Retail sales and producer prices figures released in the past week exceeded forecasts.

Next week the US will release Empire State manufacturing index and industrial production on Monday, consumer inflation on Tuesday, building permits, housing starts and crude oil inventories on Wednesday and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims and existing home sales on Thursday. The third and the last round of the US presidential debate will take place on Wednesday. The latest Fox News poll showed that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased to seven points.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10894

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016

NZD/USD experienced considerable drop having reached the 0.703 mark this week as US dollar was appreciating in value on the hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes. On Wednesday, the market found out a great share of disagreement among the Fed’s members. This helped the Kiwi to spread its wings and fly to the 0.7128 mark. But we believe that this upsurge won’t last long because of the several reasons.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand is still determined to cut interest rates to revive inflation. Although NZ economic activity is rather strong, and the NZD showed a slack in the course of last trading sessions, inflation remains stubbornly low. Next week we will get the Q3 CPI update on Tuesday. The forecasts for inflation rate – 0.0%-0.2%, it is well outside RBNZ’s target range of 1%-3%. So, it seems that further easing and NZD depreciation are inevitable. There are some additional factors that weight on the NZD/USD growth – anticipated Fed tightening in December, stalled diary prices.

Technically, the break of the 0.7163 resistance line located against the 100-day MA might pave the way towards the 0.725 mark (plotted near the 50-day MA). Alternatively, if US dollar gains momentum from J. Yellen’s speech scheduled for today, the Aussie may return to its October 13 low. If the quotes fall below the support line at 0.7032, the Kiwi might slide even further nearly reaching the 0.694 mark located against the 200-day MA.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10895

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016

EUR/USD has finally left 1.11/1.13 trading range and fell to test levels below 1.1000. The single currency ignored euro zone’s data releases, which turned out to be quite positive: German and the region’s ZEW economic sentiment improved, and the euro area’s industrial production expanded by 1.6% in August. Negative force pulling the Eurodollar down came from the US as the greenback was driven up by the increased December Fed’s rate hike expectations.

On Monday the euro area will release final inflation figures for September. The European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. The meeting will draw special attention of investors after speculation that the regulator may taper its quantitative easing program by 10 billion euro a month. Earlier the ECB hinted that it may extend asset purchases beyond March 2017. The ECB president Mario Draghi and his colleagues will have to clarify the situation and their comments will bring in more volatility to the pair.

The pair breached down support line from November 2015 (1.1100), bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud (1.1060) and 2016 support line (1.1040). Now these levels will act as resistance. It looks like the negative pressure on the euro is set to continue. Support is at 1.0980, 1.0925/00 ahead of 1.0820.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10896

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016

In line with expectations, British pound remained under pressure versus the greenback. British currency hit a record low against an index of trade-weighted currencies on Tuesday and government borrowing costs have jumped in recent weeks.

The market has calmed down a bit once Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to “full and transparent debate” on the government’s negotiating strategy in parliament before talks with the European Union begin. This helped to ease worries that May places immigration policy above the nation’s access to the EU market.

Next week the UK will release inflation figures on Tuesday. Lower pound should lead to an increase in prices, although it remains to be seen when this increase becomes reflected in inflation data. The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney said he was willing to allow inflation to run above than the central bank's 2% target in order to help employment and allow Britain's economy to grow. Earlier the signaled it is likely to cut interest rates below historic minimum of 0.25% in order to help the economy cope with the shock of the Brexit vote. As a result, despite the pound’s weakness traders may still expect the regulator to ease policy at the next meeting on November 3.

Also watch the UK labor market figures on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday and public sector net borrowing on Friday.

GBP/USD is on the bears’ territory as long as it’s trading below 1.2465/1.2500.Support is at 1.2100 and 1.1985.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10897

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016

USD/JPY tested the highest levels since the end of July.

All in all, US dollar rose because of its general strength on increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. The pair did NOT have any significant drivers from Japan. The powers of USD bulls were limited versus the yen as the weaker trade data from China once again sparked concerns about global economic growth.

Next week data from Japan will be once again of low importance. Instead focus on the US figures, as well as release of China’s GDP statistics on Wednesday. Lower data will once again increase demand for the yen as a safe haven, while better data will give more fuel to USD/JPY bulls.

USD/JPY managed to climb above 100-day MA and the daily Ichimoku Cloud, which are now proving in with support in the 103.45/30 area ahead of the week’s low at 102.80. At the same time, the pair approached resistance zone at 104.85 of the slightly slow upward channel, which has been in place since the middle of August. There’s also a psychologically important level of 105 nearby. This obstacle won’t be very ease for the bulls to break. Such a move requires a new driving force, and we remember that Japan does not offer bullish drivers for USD/JPY. Still, if the bulls managed to push above the mentioned resistance, new upside targets will be at 105.70 and 107.25.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10898

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & CPI (YoY): A bottom in the Euro is already placed?
10/17/2016

Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the CPI for September on a yearly basis for Europe and it seems that the reading will remain unchanged for this time and this week, we’ll have some action from the ECB, as their interest rate decision will take place on Thursday. Officials have been closely watching for the data mentioned above, but one could expect some volatility during the release, because of recent Euro’s selling pressure.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is very bearish, as the pair already managed to consolidate below the 500 SMA and at the end of last week, we saw that the price closed below the 1.10 psychological level. The nearest support is placed at the 1.0955 level and a breakout lower should expose the 1.0909 level. However, if EUR/USD does a strong rebound at the current stage, it should face a key resistance around 1.1043.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10899

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls are going to have a break
10/17/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 103,5-104,5 (the levels 38,2-50% of XA wave). Breakout of its upper boundary will increase the probability of achieving the target 78.6% for the Gartley pattern (105.9). On the contrary, a successful test of the support line will increase the risks of correction in the direction of 102.5.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, if "bulls" fail to breakout the resistance line at 104.55, we will be warned of their weakness. Breakout of the lower boundary of the upward trade channel and realisation of the "Head and shoulders" pattern will cause quotes to fall towards the 102.5 - 102.7 area.

Recommendations: we should lock in profits on long positions,

BUY 104,55 SL 104 TP 105,5, SELL 103,6 SL 104,15 TP 102,5.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10900

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bears are dreaming of a correction
10/17/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, "bulls" fulfilled two targets that had been set earlier. In accordance with the principles of "Shark" patterning, if the 113% level is reached, the risk of correction towards 38,2%-50% from the CD wave increases. Then, there should be a restioration of the upward trend.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, if "bulls" fail to break the lower boundary of the upward trade channel and the support line at 0.986, the quotes may fall towards the 0.98 and 0.9785 levels where targets of the "Bat" pattern are located. From these level it pays to form longs

Recommendations:

BUY 0,98 SL 0,9745 TP 0,991

BUY 0,978 SL 0,9725 TP 0,991

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10901