Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for July 1
6/30/2016

The market’s risk sentiment will have to survive a test on Friday as China will release official manufacturing & nonmanufacturing PMIs (01:00 GMT). In addition, Caixin manufacturing PMI is due at 01:45 GMT. If the figures disappoint, traders will get another reminder of how uncertain the global economic outlook is. In these case Australian and New Zealand’s dollars will fall, while Japanese yen’s strengthen. Good data will support riskier assets, though not by much. Also watch US ISM manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. FOMC member Bullard will speak later on Thursday.

EUR/USD closed above 200-day MA on Wednesday, but, as we expected, the euro’s advance is difficult. Resistance is at 1.1150 ahead of big resistance is in the 1.1200/30 area (former support and now resistance line). Traders sell on the pair’s attempts to get higher. Decline below 1.1070 will open the way to 1.0970/50.

GBP/USD is consolidating within a tringle ahead of the speech of the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney later on Thursday. Above 1.3500 the recovery may continue to 1.3567, 1.3700 and 1.3850. Support is at 1.3360 and 1.3280. The UK manufacturing PMI is due at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY made very little movement on Thursday. Japan will release inflation data as well as Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing figures early on Friday. Technical levels remain the same: resistance is at 102.85, 103.55 and 105.00. Support is at 102.15 and 100.75.

AUD/USD is limited by 0.7370 on the downside and 0.7470 on the upside. The pair’s awaiting Chinese statistics as well as Australian parliamentary election on Saturday. The news flow makes it not the best time to trade Aussie.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9446

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY before US Manufacturing PMI: Looking for a break lower?
7/1/2016

Today at 14:00 GMT will be released the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and projections are pointing to a possible rise from 51.3 to 51.5. However, there are still fears across the board because of the US slowdown, but manufacturing activity could see some improvement before the end of the semester. It should be noted that a possibility to decline below the 50 line isn't discarded yet. By the way, the stats from recent months are showing bullish patterns.

The USD/JPY structure at H1 chart is showing a huge correction from the Brexit's lows towards the 200 SMA, which is very close to the 61.8% Fibonacci level (103.81). A breakout above it, in case that the Manufacturing PMI is well-above the forecasts, then it could rally to the 104.81 level. Another scenario is calling for a possible breakout of bullish trend line, which should be the confirmation for a possible testing of 100.00 key psychological level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9447

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD ahead Construction PMI: Will we see a bearish continuation?
7/4/2016

Today at 08:30 GMT will be published the Construction PMI in the UK and another negative reading for June is expected; a pattern that has been repeated for several months already. For this occasion, according to analysts, the indicator could fall from 51.2 to 50.6, which could add pressure on GBP pairs that can not yet manage to make a strong correction after the strong decline recorded after “Brexit” Referendum.

Technical view for GBP/USD at H1 chart is showing a strong demand zone formed around the 1.3150 level (highlighted with a yellow box), and we've been seeing rebounds above it. However, the resistance level of 1.3510 hampers the corrective move, which could be extended towards the 200 SMA on this timeframe. If Construction PMI's reading is below than expected, then it could retest the 1.3150 price territory.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9466

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: downtrend can be continued
7/4/2016

Eurodollar tested the Ichimoku cloud on Friday. The bulls failed breaking the resistance of 1.1170. Therefore the trades are held at the lower boundary of the Cloud. Note that the Tenkan and Kijun are canceled the effect of the golden cross. We assume the downtrend will be resumed in the near future because the Cloud have a bearish mood.

Technical levels: support - 1.1100; resistance - 1.1170.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1050; SL — 1.1070; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9469

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the cloud still resisting
7/4/2016

Currency pair USD/JPY is still trading at the lower boundary of the four-hour Ichimoku’s cloud. Senkou Span A built a strong resistance for the corrections movement. We’re suggest the main downward trend may be resumed considering the general bearish Ichimoku indicator. In case of breakdown of Kijun-sen’s support we’ll looking for 101 figure.

Technical levels: support – 102.30; resistance – 103.00.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 102.50; SL — 102.70; TP1 — 101.50; TP2 — 101.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9470

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: on the positive mood
7/4/2016

The currency pair AUD/USD is positive today. Trades are reached the positive area and carried out over a Ichimoku cloud on the H4-timeframe. The bulls are supported by gold cross formed with the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. But the cloud remains in the bearish mood and it’s make the market go back to the area of 0.7450 in the short-term look. Also note there’s a strong resistance around 0.7540.

Technical levels: support – 0.7430/40; resistance – 0.7540.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7450; SL — 0.7430; TP1 — 0.7540; TP2 — 0.7580.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9471

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears have a good mind to move on because of the "Flag"
7/4/2016

The price has faced a resistance on the 34 Moving Average, which pushed the price a little bit down. However, the current bearish movement could be just a local correction, so the market is likely going to achieve the 89 Moving Average afterwards. If a pullback from this line happens later on, there’ll be a chance to see the pair somewhere in the nearest support area at 1.1057 – 1.1032.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress and the price is testing the “Triangle’s” upper side. Also, we’ve got a local “Pennant” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1188 – 1.1222 in the short term. At the same time, if bulls stop here, a downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.1032 becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9472

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triangle" is going to be broken soon
7/4/2016

The pair has found a support at 1.3226, which led to a local upward price movement. Nevertheless, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support area between the levels 1.3116 – 1.3015. If a pullback from here happens, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.3483 – 1.3614.

The price has been moving in a range of the possible “Triangle” pattern. Its lower side is likely going to be broken soon, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.3116 – 1.3015 as a possible bearish target. Considering a probable pullback from this area, a resistance at 1.3483 – 1.3614 could be reached later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9473

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: how do big banks trade?
7/4/2016

Goldman Sachs: Short from 1.3281, Take Profit at 1.3177, Stop Loss at 1.3364 (July 3)

UOB: Short from 1.3400, Take Profit at 1.3000, Stop Loss at 1.3530 (June 26)

Societe Generale: Short from 1.3750, Take Profit at 1.2500, Stop Loss at 1.4500 (June 26)

Credit Suisse: Sell limit at 1.3520, Take Profit at 1.3295, Stop Loss at 1.3685 (July 1)

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9474

 

[riki143]

GBP/NZD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
7/4/2016

GBP/NZD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Next sell target - 1.8200
GBP/NZD recently broke sharply through the support zone lying between the support trendline of the extended daily down channel from last September and the two support levels: 2.000 (which stopped the earlier intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of June, as can be seen below), 1.9500 and 1.9000. The breakout of this support zone greatly accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).

GBP/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.8200 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave (3)). Strong resistance now stands at 1.9500 and 1.9000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9475

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD reached sell target 1.5450
7/4/2016

EUR/NZD reached sell target 1.5450
Next sell target - 1.5200

EUR/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 3, which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of May. The price reversed down previously from the resistance zone surrounding the lower trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from the middle of January (acting as resistance now after it was broken).

The price is currently trading close to the support level 1.5450 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this pair). If the price breaks below 1.5450 - EUR/NZD can then fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5200 (forecast price for the completion of impulse wave 3).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9476

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Harami" increase bearish pressure
7/4/2016

We’ve got a “Tower” and a “High Wave” on the 34 Moving Average, but both patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. Also, there’s a strong resistance by the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami”, but without a confirmation. If a confirmation arrives later on, a downward movement becomes possible.

The price tested the 144 Moving Average, which brought a “Harami” pattern. Also, there’s a “Shooting Star” at the local low. So, the price is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average once again, which could reverse a price movement the direction of the lower “Window”.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9477

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Engulfing Bearish" points to a new downward movement
7/4/2016

There’s a “Doji” at the local high, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average shortly. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an unconfirmed “Engulfing”. If it confirms, bears will probably try to return into the market.

We’ve got a “Harami” at the last high, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s an “Engulfing” on the 55 Moving Average, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line arrives later on, a downward movement becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9478

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: yen is waiting for the right time
7/5/2016

There's correction on the daily EUR/JPY chart. This is expressed in higher MACD and convergence of the moving averages (EMA26 and EMA9). At the same time, the trand remains bearish, ADX>25 and keeps rising, +DMI>-DMI. In the situation like this we use strategies based on the return to the existing trend. Traders have to wait for the pair's return to important support. The test of this support will be a signal to enter short positions.

On H1 EUR/JPY formed the reversal pattern 1-2-3. If the bulls fail to make the move, it will signal their weakness.

Recommendation: SELL 111,5 SL 112,5 TP1 109,5 TP2 107,5.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9481

 

[riki143]

XAU/USD: gold wants more
7/5/2016

There's a steady uptrend at the daily chart: ADX>25 and rising, +DMI>-DMI, EMA9>EMA26. Correction in the form of declining MACD will be short-lived and may be used to open long positions. We recommend buying on the pullbacks and on the break above important resistance levels.

On H1 gold formed 1-2-3 pattern. Return to point 3 with further breakthrough should be used for opening long positions. Decline of Stochastics below 20 and the further return to the trade channel may also be a buy signal.

Recommendations: BUY 1332, SL 1302, TP 1392; BUY 1354, SL 1304, TP1 1404, TP2 1454.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9482

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: inside the cloud area
7/5/2016

During yesterday's session Eurodollar has remained inside the Ichimoku cloud on the four-hour timeframe. The bulls still can’t breakout through the resistance of 1.1170. Therefore, the prices made a pullback to the lines of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, formed a support-level near the 11th figure. And later the bulls, supported by the golden cross, tried to restore the prices to upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud. However the market returned to Tenkan-sen at this morning. It’s indicating the weakness of bulls.

Technical levels: support - 1.1100; resistance - 1.1170.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1120/30; SL — 1.1150; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9483

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: rebounding from the clouds
7/5/2016

As we expected, yesterday the pair USD/JPY was trading at the lower boundary of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The bulls failed breaking out that resistance. Therefore the downtrend was continued. Today trading goes already at the 102-th figure. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen formed a new dead cross. Ichimoku Cloud is extended downwards. We expect decreasing the market to new lows.

Technical levels: support – 102.00; resistance – 102.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 102.20/30; SL — 102.50; TP1 — 101.50; TP2 — 101.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9484

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Aussie is overbought
7/5/2016

Yesterday the pair AUD/USD updated the two-week highs to the 0.7540. As we noted earlier, there is a strong resistance at this level. Additionally, the market was quite overbought. It's stopped the recovery process. Therefore today we saw a correction to the Tenkan-Sen. This line is holding the further falling of pair, but the correction can be continued up to the Kijun-sen. An then the new buyers may return to the market .

Technical levels: support – 0.7500, 0.7460; resistance – 0.7540.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7460; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7540; TP2 — 0.7580.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9485

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to break the "Triangle"
7/5/2016

There’s a consolidation in progress under the 34 Moving Average. It seems like the price is about to finish forming the local high. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support area between the levels 1.1057 – 1.1032 in the short term. If a pullback from here happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to see an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance by the 55 Moving Average.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a flat inside the current “Triangle” pattern. Its lower side is likely going to be broken shortly, so we should keep in mind a support at 1.1032 as the next possible intraday target. If we see a pullback from this level later on, bulls will likely try to achieve a resistance at 1.1179 – 1.1188.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9486

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: new low is on the way due to the "Triangle"
7/5/2016

We’ve got a consolidation in a range of the current “Pennant” above the local support at 1.3226. This pattern is likely going to be broken shortly, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.3116 – 1.3016. If a pullback from this area be on the table, a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.3483 – 1.3614 becomes possible.

There’s a flat on the one-hour chart as well. We’ve got a possible “Triangle” here, which is obviously increase bearish pressure. Therefore, its lower side is likely going to be broken during the day. If the price finds a support at 1.3116 – 1.3015 afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.3483 – 1.3614.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9487