Fort Financial Services
Broker Representative
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
14.05.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US dollar is under pressure - the USDX finished the trading day at the mark of 94.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth as well as the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction.
By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the industrial production positive release. In March the index increased by 0.5% which can allow us to count on the first quarter GDP revision for the better. The UK short-term and long-term government bond yields can be the best indicator for the market sentiment determination within the pair pound/dollar. The spread has been increasing for the last two months that point out to the low market expectations regarding the monetary policy tightening.
By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the oil quotations growth which put pressure on the US dollar.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
We pay attention to the euro area first quarter positive GDP publication. The ECB soft monetary policy is starting to bear fruit. The euro low rate has increased the European products competitiveness outside the euro area which has grown the trade surplus. The export growth may lay a good foundation for the unemployment reduction and the consumer spending increase in the future.
The United States published the retail sales report for April – the data remained unchanged. The correction from the resistance level of 1.1260 turned upwards - towards the current trend.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
The potential increase targets are two resistance level of: 1.1450 and 1.1675.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
We pay attention to the Bank of England inflation quarter report. On the one hand, the energy prices growth have increased the inflation expectations - the UK 10-year bond yields are now above the level of 2%. On the other hand, the low level of average earnings in the first quarter restrained inflation and the private consumption.
As the soft monetary policy is carried out in periods of low inflation – we should not exclude positive comments. Also we should not forget about the pound revaluation against the euro.
The uptrend has stopped for a short time below the intermediate resistance level of 1.5670. The price reached the level on the lower volumes. After the resistance level of 1.5670 breakthrough the level of 1.5775 was tested.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
After the trend line 1.5775 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5950 will be opened.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields strong increase on the bond market that will provide demand for the US dollar. The Australian bond yields are now higher the level of 3% which will enhance the carry trade transactions within the Japanese yen. Investors will form the cheap yen loans and direct them to the higher-yielding instruments purchases. Yesterday the pair AUD/JPY cross-rate increased by 1.1% which is the best proof of this trend.
The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.30 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
14.05.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US dollar is under pressure - the USDX finished the trading day at the mark of 94.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth as well as the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction.
By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the industrial production positive release. In March the index increased by 0.5% which can allow us to count on the first quarter GDP revision for the better. The UK short-term and long-term government bond yields can be the best indicator for the market sentiment determination within the pair pound/dollar. The spread has been increasing for the last two months that point out to the low market expectations regarding the monetary policy tightening.
By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the oil quotations growth which put pressure on the US dollar.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
We pay attention to the euro area first quarter positive GDP publication. The ECB soft monetary policy is starting to bear fruit. The euro low rate has increased the European products competitiveness outside the euro area which has grown the trade surplus. The export growth may lay a good foundation for the unemployment reduction and the consumer spending increase in the future.
The United States published the retail sales report for April – the data remained unchanged. The correction from the resistance level of 1.1260 turned upwards - towards the current trend.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
The potential increase targets are two resistance level of: 1.1450 and 1.1675.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
We pay attention to the Bank of England inflation quarter report. On the one hand, the energy prices growth have increased the inflation expectations - the UK 10-year bond yields are now above the level of 2%. On the other hand, the low level of average earnings in the first quarter restrained inflation and the private consumption.
As the soft monetary policy is carried out in periods of low inflation – we should not exclude positive comments. Also we should not forget about the pound revaluation against the euro.
The uptrend has stopped for a short time below the intermediate resistance level of 1.5670. The price reached the level on the lower volumes. After the resistance level of 1.5670 breakthrough the level of 1.5775 was tested.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
After the trend line 1.5775 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5950 will be opened.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields strong increase on the bond market that will provide demand for the US dollar. The Australian bond yields are now higher the level of 3% which will enhance the carry trade transactions within the Japanese yen. Investors will form the cheap yen loans and direct them to the higher-yielding instruments purchases. Yesterday the pair AUD/JPY cross-rate increased by 1.1% which is the best proof of this trend.
The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.30 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.