Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair euro/dollar started the week with the price gap near the level of 1.0980 amid the negative Greek referendum results, concerning the anti-crisis plan. But after the US ISM service sector publication bulls managed to recover some of the losses. As a result, the tool closed the day with a decrease.

Due to the negative US statistics, the pair pound/dollar was able to fix its growth. However the pair decreased by the end of the day and closed the trades in the “red zone”.

The pair dollar/yen has finished the day with the negative sentiment. Investors escaped from the risky assets, giving preference to the "safe Japanese currency".

The Greeks refused to accept the creditors offer in the referendum, concerning conditions for obtaining new loans. Thus, the Greece exit from the European Union risk has been intensified that put pressure on the European currency. According to the voting results 61% of citizens said "no" in the referendum.

The EU leaders meeting took place on Tuesday in Brussels. The purpose of the meeting was to give an adequate assessment to the referendum results and consider next steps in the negotiations that were stopped after the referendum results. As we know the meeting ended inconclusively, as the Athens has not shown any proposals how to overcome the crisis.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany submitted the May release, concerning the industrial production. The data is expected within forecasts despite the fact that the production orders growth at the end of March and April indicates the production capacity increase, but the PMI indicator dynamics indicates the minimal growth. The data constituted 0.0%, while it was forecasted 0.1%.

Still the Greek problem solution was the main event of the day. The European leaders meeting results became known during the American session. The Athens will present their proposals on June, 8.

The price has been consolidating around 1.1050 for a long time. The price decreased to 1.0925 at the yesterday’s trades. This level could advance the sellers upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consoldating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon. After breaking 1.0925 the sellers may go to 1.0790, 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The bearish sentiments are prevailing in this instrument. According to the National Statistics Office industrial production release – the May industrial production PMI index had been showing a negative trend since April till June. The pound growth against the euro negatively affected the British exports.

We should also pay attention to the oil market sales- the Brent crude oil is trading below $ 60 / barrel. It is a negative signal for the pound as the energy sector accounts about 10% of the US GDP.

The pound has been correcting for three weeks against the US dollar. The trading volumes are gradually forming a divergence at the lower prices, indicating the sellers fading power.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates below the level of 1.5460 it may go to the level 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The market shares dynamics will set the course of the trades within the pair USD / JPY. It is connected with the Japanese currency peculiarities which is the funding currency for the carry trade transactions. The energy and the bank sectors are among the leaders on the dip. It will put pressure on the stock market. But taking in consideration the oil market sales, we cannot expect the US dollar sharp decline. Obviously, investors will open short-term longs on the dips.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 121.60 and 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

It is known that the EU has set Greece five-day deadline. During this period the country should give creditors new detailed offers package. It was mentioned that otherwise" the EU is ready for Greece exit.

This news triggered risk escape and investors started to look for the safe haven assets such as the yen, the dollar, Treasuries, etc. It should be noted that the dollar decreased amid FOMC minutes publication

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the oil market sales. During the day the Brent crude oil fell to the level of 55.45 that is the lowest level over the last three months. However, the euro corrected upwards by the end of the day.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased. Besides the commodity market negative dynamics the UK processing industry production volume weak data caused pressure on the British pound.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trading day in the "red zone" amid demand on the "safe haven assets" amid the instability around Greece.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone did not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. Late in the evening the United States issued the last Fed meeting report. The last FOMC meeting was followed by the quarterly economic surveys as well as the press conference by D. Yellen and in this regard investors have already got all the key landmarks and fully played them out in June.

The Fed Minutes, published in the evening did not bring any surprises. The regulator believes that the economy has not achieved the conditions for monetary tightening. There were concerns as well regarding the Greek problem.

Sellers updated the last week minimum of 1.0954, still they failed to consolidate below the support level of 1.0955. The level short-term breakthrough was followed by the refund.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925, 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

As the United Kingdom has not published any important macroeconomic statistics, the market's attention was directed to the US Federal Reserve report, which, as it became known later, introduced nothing new. The Fed is still only gave promises to raise the rate. In addition, the sentiments were determined by the commodity and the bond market dynamics. It is worth noting that now both markets are against the British pound. The commodity market sales increased the dollar position, because the raw materials cost was denominated in the US dollar.

The pound fell against the dollar that was caused by the GDP negative data ( the manufacturing industry production volume).

The potential target for the price decline was the support level of 1.5430 where we expect a consolidation with a slight increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5300 soon. The next target will be 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There were presented the May Japan payment balance. The trade deficit increase with the Bank of Japan foreign reserves reduction indicated the negative data output which would have pressure on the Japanese yen in the short term. The payment balance trade deficit in May: -47.3 billion yen against the forecasted-283.8 billion yen.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD grew amid the Greece government statement that Athens wish to remain in the Eurozone. It was noted that Athens promised to implement measures in the field of taxes and pensions at the beginning of the next week. The Old World banking sector was among the growth leaders that indicated the financial risks "degree" decline. However the pair fell by the end of the trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had again decreased. The British pound is still under pressure amid the bearish trend in the "black gold" market.

The pair USD/JPY was growing but it decreased by the end of the day amid the Chinese stock market panic sales which spilled over into the rest of the Asian equity markets. Investors went into "safe assets" which has traditionally been the Japanese yen.

There was the US Department Energy release published that indicates the oil and oil products increase which will contribute to partial short positions profit taking in the "black gold" market.

The unemployed number for the first time has risen from 282,000 to 297,000, the forecast was 275,000 according to the published US release.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We may pay attention to the May Germany trade balance data. The industrial production growth with the low euro exchange rate is a positive factor for the trade balance. If we pay attention to the seasonal factor, we will observe the traditional net exports growth in May.

The euro was correcting against the US dollar after the support level of 1.0925 testing. The corrective price increase enabled buyers to reach the level of 1.1150. After that the price started to decline again, breaking in its path the support of 1.1050. The level of 1.1050 is already a resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the level of 1.1050, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.0925 and 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results. There were not any surprises: the rate was not changed - 0.50%.

The traders' mood will be still determined by the debt and commodity markets dynamics. Among the commodity market instruments we are primarily interested in the Brent oil dynamics as the energy sector accounts for about 10% of the UK GDP.

Unlike most majors which gradually begin to strengthen against the US dollar, the pound is actively declining, breaking through on its way strong support levels. However the pound tried to correct but unsuccessfully.

There was the support level of 1.5390 breakthrough which now plays the resistance role. This level retest was not followed by the price fixing. There is a consolidation below the level of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300, 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the "bubble" burst in the Chinese stock market that yesterday caused strong sales in the Asian stock markets and contributed to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The pair USD / JPY quotations came to the level of 120.40 and rebounded to the level of 121.60 where the corrective movement development was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 120.40 testing soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 119.20.

Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar amid the US dollar recovery. Nevertheless the franc strengthened by the end of the day.

The FOMC meeting minutes did not have a significant impact on the market: many members of the Committee expressed concern about the situation in Greece. Most of members would have preferred to see the labor market further progress before the rate increase.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was the risky assets strong recovery at the end of the last week. The oil prices rebound helped the traders to distract from the uncertainty Greek pressing problems that immediately affected the pair EUR/USD dynamics: quotations recorded the growth.

The pair GBP/USD has increased amid the UK bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand. The upward trend in the world's leading stock markets contributed to the carry trade transactions increase.

After the London trades closure all investors' attention was focused on the US Federal Reserve chairman speech. On the one hand, the net exports reduction amid the US revaluation and low wage growth, on the other hand, pointed to the lack of Janet Yellen "hawkish" views. As we expected, Janet Yellen did not say anything new. She noted that the economy’s dynamic is indeterminate and the Fed will evaluate the conditions at each meeting.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was published the Germany trade balance release that is very encouraging. The net exports are growing quite confident and there is marked their increase in the second quarter. As the trade balance has an important multiplier effect - we expect positive trends on the euro zone labor market.

Buyers tried to break through above the resistance of 1.1150. The buyer failed to break this level and the price returned below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a non-confirmed and a wael buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office published the May trade balance report. This week the industrial production release indicates that this sector has developed immunity to the pound revaluation against the euro.

Having broken through the support level of 1.5390, the downward trend line went into the prolonged consolidation. Then the thrice grew and the level of 1.5460 was broken though. After the resistance level of 1.5550 testing the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong support level of 1.5460. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Investors have again "risk appetite" and in the light of this we expect the bullish sentiment. The Old World stock exchanges finish the trades in the "green zone". The banking and the energy sectors were again the leaders in the US market share and in this regard, traders can continue to build carry trade positions.

Buyers are correcting the price from the support level of 120.40. Its corrective growth was on the lower volumes. The level of 123.50 is a strong resistance for this pair.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 123.50, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 124.30.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar remains within its former range, however, it reduced the number of its achievements when the data publication said that the jobless claims number have increased by 15,000 to 297,000.

According to the IMF estimates, the global economic growth in 2015 is expected at the level of 3.3% against 3.5% and the growth forecast for 2016 remained at the level of 3.8% against 3.1% in April. The reason for its decline was the "temporary weakness" forecast in the first quarter.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross’.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The uncertainty around Greece was all last week. EU summit and the Eurogroup meeting continued almost all weekend, but the specific outcome appeared only on Monday. Greece had to compromise and now the parliament must approve the reforms package in exchange for a bailout from the European Union.

The EUR/USD increased amid the positive "the Greek issue" expectations last week. The Greek government has announced that it is ready to offer a new anti-crisis plan which creditors should make." After the agreement with Greek has been reached, the European currency declined sharply.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed a certain demand. The British currency was supported after the May UK trade balance release. However, the pound decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening.

There was a "bullish" sentiment with the USD/JPY. This is not surprising as the global stock markets perked up after the positive news about the "Greek debt" situation. As a result we had the demand for risky assets.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Currency market wins back the creditors’ “Greek debt” decision. Despite the various differences between the parties were still able to reach a consensus, which is a positive factor for the euro. There has been a moderate price increase. The upward trend was also observed on the European stock market as the financial risks were mitigated. However, after it became known that Greece has made concessions to the creditors the pair sharply declined

There was the resistance of 1.1050 breakthrough last week. The breakthrough came in the second times and allowed buyers to deploy a downward trend upward. Also they tested the strong resistance level of 1.1150. The price rebounded downwards from this level and broke down the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.1050, 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The last week the May UK positive trade balance release allow us to count on the economic growth acceleration in the second quarter which may support the demand for the British currency. Britain and the United States did not publish important macroeconomic statistics. In this regard, attention should be paid to the debt market dynamics.

The three-day upward correction having formed from the support level of 1.5390 enabled buyers to break the level of 1.5550. There was a price rebound downwards from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670, further then towards 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The course of trading is determined by the world's leading stock exchanges mood. The positive decision of the Greek problem increased the demand for risk and in this regard the upward trend will be continued. Institutional investors continue to increase transactions on operations carry trade where the Japanese yen is a funding currency.

The price has been correcting to 123.50 for the fourth time in the past six weeks, acting as a resistance. The mark of 123.50 test is occurred on the reduced volume.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the buyers may go to 124.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The multi-week negotiations between the Greek government and international lenders have been finally ended with a consensus. The country remains in the euro zone and will receive a long-awaited financial assistance. Athens will be allocated more than 80 billion euros over three years. In exchange, the Tsipras' government will reform the pension system and labor markets.

There was increased volatility in the Forex market. The EUR/USD fell after long positions profit taking when it became known that the Greece crisis is solved.

The GBP/USD showed growth then as traders took profits amid the oil market bearish sentiment.

The positive decision of the "Greek problem" promoted the demand for risky assets in the world, that supported the USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the pair fell by the end of the day.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The index ZEW release has been published that has been showing a negative trend for the two months. There is an instability around Greece the last 1.5 months and this fact does not support the growth optimism in the German business community. The index came out with the data 29,7 that is less then 31,5 last month.

Bears fully control "black gold" market. Brent oil confidently entrenched below the psychological level of $ 60 per barrel.

The support levels of 1.1150 and 1.1050 break held against the backdrop of high volume - that is a good signal for the medium-term bearish trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong support. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 0.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling strengthened amid the BoE chief Mark Carney’s statements is more likely to raise the rates

The June UK CPI was published. The income has been increased that indicates an increase in consumer spending and ultimately inflation. The gasoline prices have been growing throughout the second quarter which also indicates an increase in CPI. The index came out on the level of 0,0%.

The support level of 1.5460 short-term test was accompanied by an active pound growth against the US dollar. The resistance level of 1.5550 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 1.5670. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the lack of important macroeconomic statistics the pair's trading was determined by the stock and debt markets dynamics. We are seeing demand for "risky assets" amid the Greece and creditors agreement that will help to increase the carry trade operations with the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 123.50, 124.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main positive related with Greece has been already played out. Now, traders gradually become aware of what is the price of the agreement. The country is faced with the necessity of hard and painful reforms which are unlikely to please the public. There are reports about the civil servants strikes in the country. Now everything will depend on the government's ability to convey the entire population of the need for the reform. The important news became the Yellen's speech where she said that the rate increase could be expected this year.

The EUR/USD was traded in a flat amid the mixed news background. The euro zone and the US alternately disappointed the market with weak macroeconomic statistics. After the J. Yellen’s speech the dollar strengthened and the pair fell.

Mark Carney has rightly become the main week beginning newsmaker. The rising interest rates moment is getting closer - stated the head of the Bank of England, which caused the rapid growth of the British currency. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD increased.

The pair USD/JPY spent in the positive sentiment last trading day. Earlier traders partly fixed long positions profits considering current levels less attractive to long, based on the continuation of the uptrend. However the news supported the dollar and the pair increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The published euro zone macroeconomic data did not clearly add optimism to "bulls". The ZEW business conditions indicator has been showing a negative trend for the third month in a row, falling in July to its lowest level in seven months. The industrial production index also went into the negative territory for the end of May.

The euro/dollar decreased amid J. Yellen’s speech.

There was the previous minimum update. The level of 1.0925 testing came amid low volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

National Office of Statistics has published the May UK labor market release. The Consumer Confidence Gfk indicator signaled that we should not expect strong data. This fact was confirmed by the CPI measure which remained unchanged by the end of June. The head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that "the moment of rising interest rates is getting closer." The pound slightly decreased on the yesterday trades.

The second time buyers touched the resistance 1.5550. The pair tested the level of 1.5670 and rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan announced its meeting results regarding the monetary policy and, in this regard. Bank of Japan noted the positive trend in foreign trade, as well as the households expenditure. However, there is a negative trend in the manufacturing sector.

Four daily US dollar growth against the Japanese yen faced the resistance at 123.50. The pair broke this level on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level 124.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The political and the US economy statistics news supported the dollar. The US currency rose against the euro, the yen, and against the British pound. The greenback purchases were started after J.Yellen's speech in the Congress USA. She confirmed that the regulator is approaching to the monetary policy tightening and the key interest rates growth in the current year.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 15 thousand having fallen to 218 thousand.

On the yesterday’s trades, the EUR/USD lost some points amid the US Federal Reserve head stated that the regulator is set to raise the rates this year. The GBP/USD fell after the negative labor market release. The unemployment rate rose to 0.1%, prompting long positions profit-taking. The pair USD/JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand, as well as BoJ the negative inflation outlook.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders' attention was focused on the Greece debt problems in the beginning of the week. Now, the investors' attention is directed to the Mario Draghi's speech and the ECB meeting results. There was the Fed's head press conference on Thursday. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.

Sellers broke the support level of 1.0925 that opened the way to the support level of 1.0790. The price is consolidating above the support level 1.0790 now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.0790 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0670, further then towards 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The unemployment rate in Britain increased by 0.1% at the end of May. The core inflation is at 0.8%, the unemployment rate is at 5.6%. We can forget about the rate increase for a while with such statistics.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's made his speech yesterday still there was no reaction at the market after his speech.

The short-term resistance level of 1.5670 stopped the upward pound trend. The level test has led to the downward correction formation that is aimed to support level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5670, 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

We do not believe in strong yen sales now. The Bank of Japan lowered its inflation forecast for the financial years 2015-2017 and in this regard the Japanese yen looks rather vulnerable now.

Buyers have failed to break through and gain stay above the strong resistance level of 123.50 for the third time. The level breakthrough comes amid low volumes. Currently, the price is consolidating above 123.50 which already plays a strong supporting role.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc lost the position Swiss currency fell to nearly 3-month low of 0.9553 against the US dollar. The retail trade turnover fell in May in Switzerland, showing the preliminary results of the Federal Statistical Office report. The turnover in real terms fell by 1.8% in May compared to the preceding year, for the fifth month in a row, and after a reduction of 0.1% in April.

The USD/CHF broke through the resistance at 0.9540.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD decreased at the end of the last week amid the commodity market sales and the pair EUR/GBP quotations decrease.

The pair GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range. Earlier the pair decreased amid the US jobless claims moderately positive statistics as well as the US and the UK bond yields increase.

The pair USD/JPY has finished the trading day in the "green zone". Demand for the "risky assets" still supports bulls.

The US dollar is also going through hard times. Last week the Fed chairman Janet Yellen hinted that the rate hike would be this year. However, the specifics in terms of the rate hike possible timing traders still have not received. As a result, the statement impact on the dollar was minimal.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

If any factor leads to the undesirable monetary policy tightening, the price stability will substantially worsen. "The European Central Bank Governing Council will use all available tools", - says the ECB president Mario Draghi.

"Economic conditions" will likely justify the rate hike at some point this year," - said D. Yelllen, speaking in Congress.

Comparing the ECB and the Fed comments, we can come to the conclusion that the market still will have bullish sentiments towards the US dollar.

Bears brought the price closer to the first obstacle on the way downwards that is the level of 1.0925. The decrease continued started after breaking the mark of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0790 and 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the UK inflation and the labor market negative macroeconomic statistics which we received last week - the British pound avoided sales and stabilized around the 56th figure. There are two key factors that support demand for the pound. Firstly, the pair EUR/GBP quotations reduction amid the single European currency weakness. Secondly, the debt market positive dynamics.

The mark 1.5670 continues to demonstrate its strength in the resistance status. The bulls' attempt to break through this barrier was not successful.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5670, the next one is the level of 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the bullish sentiments predominance within the pair. Traders continue to act out the Bank of Japan negative inflation forecast (Inflation indicator №1 for the currency market) and in this regard the Japanese yen is under pressure. Demand for the "risky assets" is still quite high which contributes to the carry trade transactions increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The resistance at the level of 123.50 was broken through and now the price is close to the new resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 124.30 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 125.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar rose against other major currencies. Last week the dollar index reached the seven week high after the labor market solid data have led to the expectations increase about the Fed raising interest rates before the end of 2015.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upwards movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The June USA inflation indicators were published last Friday. The main CPI index growth rate slowed to 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 0.1% y/y vs. 0.4% m/m and 0.0% y/y in May. This basic inflation level registered dynamics exactly in line with expectations (+ 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y). Obviously, the US price pressure is not clearly growing at the rate that would require the interest rates sharp increase, so the macro statistics has remained virtually unnoticed by the bulls within the dollar.

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD slightly corrected. Earlier the pair decreased. Traders sold the euro after the US inflation moderately positive data.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat. The pair EUR/GBP sales saved the British pound from the bears' "onslaught". However, the pair slightly fell.

After a slight growth during the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a narrow flat amid the long positions profit taking in the world leading stock markets which restrains the US dollar quotations growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was not published any important macroeconomic statistics. The single European currency has been under pressure for the last three trading days and we expect some short positions profit taking. However, we cannot count on the euro significant growth.

Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi said that inflation would remain low in the short term and we may expect a moderate growth only at the end of the year. Low inflation is traditionally a negative factor for the currency.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.0925, sellers lowered the price by only 100 points. The low volatility indicates towards the imminent upward correction. An additional signal for the upward correction formation is in favor of divergence volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

After a slight decrease there was a flat amid the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. On the one hand, the British pound could get support from the bond market as well as the pair EUR / GBP. The UK 10-year government securities are growing against the US Treasuries and the German bond yields which contribute to the British pound demand.

The British pound is consolidating towards the side levels of 1.5670 - 1.5550. There was the level of 1.5550 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5670. After breaking 1.5670 the buyers may go to 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday all Japan banks were closed for a public holiday and in this regard there was a sluggish trade. Given the fact that on Friday the world leading stock markets were closed in the negative area - there was a slight correction within the pair dollar / yen amid the profit taking on the carry trade transactions.

Having reaching the resistance level of 124.30, the price has formed a short-term consolidation. There is the volumes divergence amid the downward correction formation.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 127.00 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The fact that Greece paid some of its debts had no effect on the market as it was fairly predictable. If we look at the picture from a broader perspective, it is clear that the words "the need to restructure" or even "the debt cancellation" have been recently heard too often. It is unclear where the new negotiations round on the financial assistance program will lead us. However, we can say with some confidence that it will be no worse period for the euro. The main negative factor is already found in the price and under favorable circumstances we can see the euro bears' enthusiasm growth. The dollar’s index decreased against the majors by the end of the day.

The pair EUR/USD was traded in the flat amid the US and Eurozone important macroeconomic statistics publication lack. The pair closed the trades with the euro growth.

The pair GBP/USD was traded in a flat. Earlier the pound had decreased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields increase.


The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand. However, the pair sharply decreased by the end of the day.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone and the United States did not publish any important macroeconomic releases and in this regard the debt dynamics and the commodity market were in the center of our attention. It should be noted that the German 10-year bond yields continue to decline relative to their US and the UK counterparts that is a "bearish" factor for the single European currency. However, the euro bulls were able to seize the initiative.

Now there is a short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.0790. Then the pair rebounded upwards and the resistance level of 1.1150 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency is in a flat of 1.5537 -1.5674 and in the short term we expect this range breakthrough. Fundamental factors indicate that we will see the downward trend development. Last week we received the UK and the US inflation data and its dynamics indicates the presence of demand for the US dollar besides it slightly weakened.

Buyers have not been able to break through below the support level of 1.5550 for a long time. All attempts were followed by the consolidation formation with the further rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5460, 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

After a long weekend Japanese banks began their work and in this regard, there was a slight volatility surge. It should be noted that the upward trend was stopped. On Monday there were significant gold sales which positively affected the world leading stock exchanges. When the gold fell there was a demand for markets' assets as investors saw the "risk appetite" growth.

After the level of 124.30 short-term break through the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

There were two unexpected events in the currency market. Firstly, the pair euro/dollar suddenly showed its intent to recover from the lows and almost immediately gained 100 points. Secondly, the pair dollar/yen steady increase came to an end and quotes also rose up by nearly 100 points - but downwards. The reason is simple: the dollar bulls have decided to take profit, the last week its size was substantial as the US dollar took completely its advantage, expecting the Fed rate hike. It is important to note that it happened amid the practically empty macroeconomic calendar.

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking as well as the oil quotations moderate growth. However by the end of the day the pair fell again.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading at the levels of 1.5550 - 1.5670 amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations growth which are holding back the British pound.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the carry trade transactions closure which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro sentiments were determined by the debt market dynamics which is now clearly on the "bears" side. There were the US secondary market housing sales published. The sales increased to 5,49 millions.

The short-term price consolidation at the support level of 1.0790 was followed by the upward rebound. The rebound was at the low volumes, but it allowed buyers to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.0925. The level of 1.0925 breakthrough was short-term and the pair fell below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect towards the growth to 1.0925 and 1.1050 further on we expect a fall.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was the Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes published which traditionally causes the volatility spike. The monetary regulator meeting took place on Thursday, 9 July and this time we received quite contradictory macroeconomic statistics.

It is noted the average wage increase in the United Kingdom which is a positive factor for the inflation. The payments balance release for the first quarter points out to the strong negative effect of the British pound revaluation.

The downward rebound, formed after the support level of 1.5550 testing looks quite weak. Volumes are in reduced zone and the pair did not exit the range formed between the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The quotations decrease which we have seen is a correctional movement – traders partly took profits on the long positions after the long upward trend. It should also be noted that this correction does not look like the US dollar massive sales. The correction was also observed in the US stock market. By the end of the day the pair increased.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 124.30, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 125.50.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar index basket (USDX) had increased. The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the oil market "bearish" trend. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had grown amid the Bank of England moderately positive minutes where the GDP second and the third quarter growth estimates were increased. The US Energy Department reported the crude oil inventories increase which would contribute to the quotations and will have a negative impact on the British pound as the UK is an exporter of hydrocarbons to the European Union. It should also be noted that there is a negative trend throughout the commodity market that will support the US currency. The pair fell by the end of the trades.

The day the pair USD/JPY had increased amid the June US secondary market housing sales positive release. The sales rose up by 3.2% in June compared to the previous month and it occurred despite the mortgage interest rates growth. American consumers feel confident enough, just willing to buy housing in spite of the credit growth. Then the pair consolidated.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 26 thousand having fallen to 255 thousand. It is the minimum since 1973.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay attention to the commodity and bond market dynamics amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The US Energy Department release pointed out to the crude oil reserves growth which puts pressure on the "black gold" quotations. Against this background we expect the Brent quotations decrease which will have a positive impact on the US currency as the oil price is denominated in dollars.

The euro two-day growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.0925. The level testing was amid the low volumes and was followed by the breakthrough upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The MPC last meeting minutes publication confirmed the fundamental mixed background. On the one hand, the wage growth is a positive factor for the medium-term inflation expectations. On the other hand, it was noted that the pound growth can negatively affect the British economy.

The National Statistics Office published the UK retail sales report for June. The retail sales were 0.2% m / m + 4.0% y / y.

Buyers were unable to reach the resistance level of 1.5670. the pair decreased and broke through the support level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.5390 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the June trade balance report. At its last monetary policy meeting the Bank of Japan pointed out to the weak economic growth in the second quarter as a whole and the exports decline in particular. The same trend confirms the Central Bank of Japan foreign exchange reserves reduction which has traditionally been strong in periods of the trade deficit increase.

Having rebounded from the resistance level of 124.30, the price fell and is consolidating.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough down the way to the support 122.40 will be opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the US currency amid the dollar decline.

The absence of important macroeconomic statistics has highlighted speculations on the interest rate differentials.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9540. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9370.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the pair EUR/USD increased amid the pair EUR/GBP growth and amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. Then the pair consolidated.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had decreased after the June UK retail sales publication - the index decreased by 0.2%. The pound fell after the retail sales weak data output. The data were disappointing. They negated the British retailers' consortium and the British Industry Confederation earlier studies. In general the news is not good, but the consumer spending trend is still growing. In fact, the retail sales showed an increase by 4% y/y while consumer confidence is at the 15-year high, real wages rose up by almost 3% y/y while the employment continues to rise. So consumer spending is not in danger. On the contrary, the United States pleased traders with the positive jobless claims. However the pair pound/dollar slightly corrected.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the world leading stock markets sales which hindered the US dollar's growth. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day.

After the US jobless claims publication we observed the commodity market sales which is also a positive factor for the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Markit Economics has presented the France and the Germany manufacturing sectors business climate data. The France industrial sector business climate will amount 49.6 in July, the Germany industrial sector business climate will amount 51.5.

There is the production orders growth in both economies amid the euro devaluation which increases the products competiveness abroad.

The euro is still correcting relative to the US dollar, breaking through the resistance level of 1.0925 upwards. The pair is consolidating above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. The next targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales release indicates that the British prefer to save more than spend. Despite the strong population revenue growth – the June sales decreased by 0.2%. The consumer demand reduction is a negative factor for the state economic growth.

The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the active prices decrease by 160 points. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through which now acts as a resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance 1.5550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5460 and 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last week Japan disappointed investors with the June trade balance weak data while the United States is pleased with the secondary market housing sales positive report as well as the jobless claims reduction.

The downward correction which began from the resistance level of 124.30 stopped at the support level of 123.50. The price came up to the level amid the low volumes and went into the prolonged consolidation and a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 123.50 for a steady downward trend. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

Last week US jobless claims release was quite encouraging. The primary and the secondary jobless claims reduction points out to the labor market positive trends in particular and in the economy in general. Against this background, the Forex market will re-live expectations about the federal funds rate growth in September which will support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was not able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.56.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased despite the France and Germany PMI manufacturing and production sector negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless the pair grew by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD was trading within the flat amid the UK bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts as well as the US new home sales weak data. However the pair increased on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the lack of demand for the "risky assets" as well as the US negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless, the pair increased yesterday.

The US new housing market sales publication did not meet our forecasts: the transactions number amounted to only 482 thousand in June against the expected 546 million and 517 million in May. It has played the role of counterweight within the pair EUR/USD that put pressure not on the euro, but on the US dollar as well.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The last week euro zone and the United States economic data showed a clear divergence: the Eurozone consumer confidence index and the composite PMI weak releases amid the US real estate positive data and jobless claims reduction. Thus, there will be a steady demand for the US dollar in the short term.

The euro is recovering its positions against the US dollar. Its corrective growth is on the low volumes and has a target to test the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925, 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The downtrend changed to the upward movement. There are still active sales on the commodity market which is a positive factor for the US currency as the raw material assets cost is denominated in dollars. It should also be noted that the British currency traditionally negatively reacts to the oil bearish trend. Last week the Brent crude finished at the mark of $ 55 / barrel and the next stop will, possibly, be near the 53rd figure.

There was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough upwards and trades closed at the level of 1.5572.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 101.85 breakthrough down the way to the support 101.50 will be opened. The resistance level of 1.5670 test is more likely to lead to the rebound downwards.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

We noted the "bearish" sentiments prevalence. The lack of demand for the "risky assets" contributed to the carry trade transactions closure that will cause demand for the Japanese yen. The negative trend is confirmed by the debt market: the US and Japan 10-year bond yields are reducing which is clearly at the "bears" hands.

There was the support level of 123.50 breakthrough which was followed by the very low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 123.50 further on we expect a fall to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the German 10-year bond yields relative to its US and the UK counterparts. The Germany data served as a powerful driver for the euro. The IFO Institute business sentiment index registered growth up to 108 points in July, exceeding expectations at the level of 107.5 and the June index around the level of 107.4. It was enough for the pair EUR/USD to get a powerful impulse and to start recovery from the recent lows.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had strengthened despite the US durable goods orders positive macroeconomic statistics for June.

During the day the pair USD / JPY some growth amid the world stock markets sales which caused the carry trade transactions closure.

In June the US durable goods orders rose up by 3.4%, the index excluding transportation also rose up - by 0.8%. However, the main source of concern was the latest stock market crash in China where the Shanghai Composite has lost more than 8%. Traders believe that the China stock markets volatility can delay the US Federal Reserve possible rate hike as the situation is an additional threat to stability.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The main pair dynamics is determined by three factors: the bond market sentiments, the commodity market trend and the pair EUR / GBP dynamics.

There was the German 10-year bond yields growth on the debt market in relation to its US and UK competitors which supports some demand for the euro.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

The upward correction within the pair euro / dollar consolidated its positions, breaking through on its way resistance at the level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The growth targets are 1.1150, 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the main event was the second quarter UK GDP publication. The Bank of England pointed to an economic growth by 0.7% in its monetary policy last minutes. These data came out at the forecast level of 0.7% q / q and 2.6% y / y

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision can affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

The resistance level of 1.5550 could not stop buyers. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes and opened the way to the level of 1.5460 and 1.5390 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect a rebound. The levels of 1.5460, 1.5390 are the rebound targets.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the investors' risk avoidance in financial markets (the world leading stock markets sales) which is a "bearish" factor for this pair. Investors closed the carry trade transactions which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency.

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair’s dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.

Before reaching the support level of 122.80, the downward trend reversed in the short-term correction. The resulting correction is on the low volumes and is aimed at the resistance level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After testing 123.50 we expect a consolidation. Then the price may go down. The downward targets are 122.40, 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the long positions profit taking before ECB meeting. After another Chinese stock market collapse traders spread the rumors that the American central bank would not still raise interest rates. After the meeting results it was expected to hear something about new external risks to the US economy which would lead to the immediate dollar sales and the pair EUR / USD growth.

As a result the last ECB meeting confirmed its plans to change the rates this year that supported the dollar.

The pair GBP / USD had increased as well after the UK second quarter GDP publication. The final index is above the level of 0.7%.

During the day the pair USD / JPY was growing. On the one hand, "bulls" were supported by the “risky assets" demand. On the other hand, the Conference Board consumer confidence weak data put pressure on the US currency.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the debt and commodity markets stabilization after a high volatility. In this regard, it was expected that the pair euro / dollar would be trading a flat up to the FOMC meeting outcome announcement.

It was expected that the US Wednesday Federal Reserve meeting results would be a little different from the D. Yellen two week ago rhetoric. Then the FED chairman announced the monetary authorities intention to tighten monetary policy at any meeting this year. The yesterday’s ECB meeting supported the dollar as the committee confirmed its intentions to change the rates this year.

Having broken through the level of 1.1050 downwards the price.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target is the level of 1.0925. The next one is 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The GBP / USD fundamental background is still mixed. Investors 'attention is directed to the June UK mortgage lending publication which was positive, exceeding analysts' forecasts. Above all, the market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve meeting results. It was expected to hear the same benchmarks that were announced by D. Yellen in Congress two weeks ago.

The trade is below the key resistance level of 1.5670. The price consolidation below the mark can lead to the short-term decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460. Shall the price break the level upwards and we will see the growth continuation.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the June retail trade release. The wage level is the most important indicator for determining the retail sector demand dynamics. It was expected the data within the forecasted medians, but the results exceeded forecasts by 0.9% instead of the projected 0.5% after the previous indicator by 3.0%.

The market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results. Changes in rhetoric were not expected.


The lack of buyers’ support can lead to the strong price rebound from the resistance level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.10. On Wednesday late in the evening there were announced the US Federal Reserve meeting results.

Monetary authorities have once again confirmed the labor market progress and they also noted the real estate market growth. It was also pointed out that inflation expectations have not changed compared to the last assessment and it is necessary to wait for more positive macroeconomic data to start the monetary policy tightening phase. At first it upset the market, but ultimately the US currency was set to buy again and the US dollar has strengthened relative to all of its main competitors.

The FOMC also pointed out that the federal funds rate first increase can happen in September. Against this background, the pair EUR / USD had decreased by 0.51% by the end of the day, the pair GBP / USD had declined by 0.03% and the pair USD / JPY had increased by 0.30%.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar strengthened against the euro after the US Federal Reserve meeting results publication.

The jobless claims have unexpectedly grown to the seasonally adjusted 9,000 in Germany in July, it was reported a decline by 1000 in June, economists expected the unemployment decline by 5000 in July, and however, the labor market remains one of the strongest in the euro area. There was the second quarter US GDP report published. Investors focused their attention to the data that indicate the US jobless claims number.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price get below the Cloud we may get a sell signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target 1.0925 is reached. The next one is 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Commodity market reacted with the quotations decrease on the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results which is a negative factor for the British currency.

Investors focused their attention on the US GDP publication for the second quarter. The industrial production index which best determines this year business cycle dynamics in the second quarter showed a moderate growth. Investors' attention is directed to the initial jobless claims weekly report.

The resistance level of 1.5670 false breakthrough was followed by the prices active drop.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

The US Federal Reserve meeting results supported the dollar as a result it has strengthened against the yen.

There was published the June industrial production data, we expected a weak report which would put pressure on the Japanese yen. However, the data came out better than expected 0.8% against 0.3% earlier it was-2.1%. Traders focused their attention on the second quarter US GDP release. The US initial jobless claims report is also considered by investors.

The strong resistance level of 123.50 breakthrough opened the way for another resistance level of 124.30 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We support the growth plan. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.

Franc (CHF)

The dollar consolidated its position after the FOMC minutes publication where it was noted that the rate would be increased after the labor market continued growth. Following the meeting, the interest rate has remained within the 0.0% -0.25%.

Credit Suisse says that the Swiss National Bank losses could reach 50 billion francs in the first half of the year because of the exchange rate, gold and government bonds changes. According to the data publication, the Swiss KOF leading economic indicators rose up to 99.8 this month from 89.8 in June whose indicator was revised up from 89.7. Analysts had expected the index growth by 90.3 in July.

Buyers managed to strengthen the strong resistance level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.60.

The pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the Germany and Spain inflation slowdown last Friday.

During the day the pair GBP / USD was trading in a flat amid the UK bond yields moderate growth relative to its US and Germany counterparts.

The pair USD / JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand at the end of the last week.

The last week US second quarter GDP data came out slightly worse than the consensus forecast, but we can consider it moderately positive. The personal consumption expenditures main index for the second quarter increased by 1.8% which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The Fed uses namely this indicator as the consumer activity benchmark.

In general, the US dollar continues to behave as if the Fed’s rate hike is actually a solution. We should remind that the Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect bearish sentiment prevalence within the pair EUR/USD. The Germany retail sales have decreased by 2.3% from May till June, corrected for the inflation and seasonal variations, still they increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year. Economists had forecasted that the monthly value would remain within the flat. However, the retail sales positive trend remains the same, private consumption will continue to support the European largest economy growth. It is expected that the German economy will expand by 1.8% this year and 2.0% in 2016.

A short-term correction was formed. The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price gets below the Cloud we get a strong sell signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.

Trading recommendations

We expect the decrease will be continued. The first target is 1.0925. The second one is 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

During the day the British pound can show the quotations moderate growth. There was the UK securities bond market increase in relation to its US and Germany competitors. The UK and Germany bond yields once again exceeded the level of 131 bp which will put pressure on the pair EUR / GBP and support demand for the British currency against the US dollar.

According to the economic calendar, the UK Gfk consumer confidence index has fallen: 4 instead of 7, although it was expected 5.

For a long time the British pound has been trading below the strong resistance level of 1.5670. All attempts to break through above the level were followed by the prices rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The first resistance is at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

The price is just above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar was stable against the yen. Earlier the Japan data showed that household spending declined by 3.0% in June, confounding the projected decline by 0.5%, after the previous month increase by 2.4%. The data also showed that the Tokyo consumer price index rose up by 0.2% this month in line with the market expectations.

The maximum of 124.47 was updated, but bulls failed to consolidate above the level of 124.30 – there was a false breakthrough which led to the downward rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70. Shall the price fall it will go to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market is consolidating. Some optimism inspires more or less clear picture in the United States. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing. The US second quarter GDP data showed an increase by 2.3% q / q vs. 2.5% q / q. The separate report showed that initial jobless claims amounted to 267k vs. 270k.

The pair USD / CHF tested the level of 0.9700 / 10, then the correction has started and currently the pair is under pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

This week the US dollar is being traded without significant changes in anticipation of important macroeconomic statistics. Investors are waiting for the US labor market Friday's data. The labor costs record low index in the second quarter raised questions about the Fed key rate hike in September. Thus, the US labor costs index showed the lowest growth rate in the second quarter at the level of 0.2% well below the forecast by 0.7%.

Previously, the dollar was supported by the Federal Reserve two-day meeting. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than it was expected when it came to the Fed rate hike timing.

In addition, we expect the euro zone important data. Economists expect the official data that will be published next will point to the Germany manufacturing industry growth production, but its slowdown in France and Italy that shows divergence in the euro area economy. However the data in Italy came out showed a growth to 55,3 from 54,1. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decreased.

The pair GBP/USD also decreased. Earlier the pound traded without significant changes in BoE's meeting anticipation on the coming Thursday. At the same time for the first time the central bank will announce the interest rates decision and will publish its meeting minutes and the UK economy new forecasts.

The yen declined against the dollar amid the general demand for the US currency and the interest decrease in safe assets because of the stock indices strengthening.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was supported by the euro zone consumer inflation strong indicators. Thus, the EU consumer prices rose up by 0.2% y/y in July while the core index showed an increase by 0.9% y/y against the expected 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at the mark of 11.1%.

Buyers tried to continue the upward trend, but they were stopped by the resistance near 1.1050. The level testing was followed by an active rebound downwards on the increased volume. The rebound from the level of 1.1050 has allowed customers to consolidate below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790, 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The data publication has shown that approved applications for mortgage and consumer loans totaled 66.58K and £ 1.22 billion respectively.

The course has received previous support after the UK economy growth strong preliminary estimates. The second quarter data supported the trend set in the first quarter. So the UK economy showed a growth by 2.6% y/y and 0.7% q/q vs. 2.9% and 0.4% respectively in the previous quarter.

The resistance level of 1.5670 was tested for its strength last week. The false level testing was followed by the rebounds downwards. At the beginning of this level the pair decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The statistics in Japan showed that the retail sales have fallen for the third time this year -by 0.8% in June after the January and March decline. Analysts had forecasted decrease on average by 0.9%. The consumer spending weakness increases the risks for the Japanese economy, the manufacturing sector is experiencing hard times, taking into the exports weakness.

The upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped for a short time at the resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.