Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar lost the early earned positions. Meanwhile, traders turn their attention to the Fed monetary policy meeting which will be held on September 16-17. The dollar growth against the major currencies was caused by the expectations, concerning the Bank of China new monetary easing measures. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 6 thousand having fallen to 275 thousand.

During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. However, the pair increased by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased. The weak economic statistics was published: the industrial production fell in August while the trade deficit has grown. On Thursday traders drew their attention to the Bank of England meeting and its minutes. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

The pair USD/JPY decreased after the powerful growth in the Tokyo stock market. Then the pair showed a flat. The Japan Nikkei index showed the biggest session growth after the China Finance Ministry stated that it intended to implement fresh measures to stimulate the economic growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The "risk appetite" growth among investors put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Germany and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that supported the demand for the dollar. Now the other hand, investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Nevertheless, the euro increased by the end of the trades.

The euro is showing that now the movement strengthened. The euro grew and the resistance leve of 1.1260 was broken through upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1325. After breaking 1.1325 the buyers may go to 1.1410.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day was the Bank of England monetary policy meeting results. The debt market is also sending a negative signal: the UK and the US negative government bond yields are increasing that reduces the British assets investments’ attractiveness. However, after the decrease the pound strengthened.

The pair showed a strong growth and broke through the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets growth put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The United States published the jobless claims release. The data showed the decrease by 6 000. It is impossible to ignore the commodity market sales.

The oil, gold, copper, platinum and other commodities quotations fell very much which is a positive factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost is denominated in US currency.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair USD/CHF has fallen. The UK presented the initial jobless claims report: there was expected 275K while earlier it was expected 282K. The data came out at the forecasted median. Investors are taking a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The American monetary regulator will announce its interest rates decision just in a week.

The pair dollar/franc is again correcting. The support level of 0.9750 was broken through downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency showed weakness against its major counterparts - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.49. The Labor Department published the initial jobless claims report, the numbers fell by 6,000 and reached 275,000 with the seasonal correction. Economists expected 275,000 initial claims.

The pair EUR/USD increased amid the European stock exchanges decrease. The dollar significantly depreciated against the euro which was caused by the US mixed statistics.

The pair GBP/USD strengthened amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US counterparts. The pound markedly rose against the US dollar, having reached the two-week low at the same time that was caused by the Central Bank of England meeting results and the subsequent statements. As expected, during the meeting the BoE MPC members voted to keep the interest rates at the level of 0.5%. However, the week closed with the pair rebound downwards.

The USD/JPY was in a flat amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The yen fell slightly despite the Japanese manufacturing sector large enterprises sentiment positive data.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The world leading markets instability influences to the single European currency. The world leading stock indicators do not show a steady upward trend. Last week the European stock indicators decreased more than by 1%. The US indicators showed a growth on the contrary. The high-tech sector was in leaders which traditionally indicates the demand for the “risky assets".

The euro/dollar is growing. The pair rebounded upwards from the support level of 1.1260 and the resistance level of 1.1325 break through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1410, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530 and then towards to the level of 1.1590.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency has been ignoring the negative news for two trading days which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The UK government bond yields increased relative to their US and Germany counterparts which contributes to the capital flow into the UK assets.

The pair pound/dollar continued its upwards consolidation. After the resistance level of 1.5460 testing the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5460, the next one is the mark of 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets do not give strong signals on the purchase and sale. In this regard, now it becomes clear whether investors open the carry trade operations or close them. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing in favor of the US dollar. The US producer prices index was published. It was assumed that the negative data would put pressure on the US currency.

The pair dollar/yen continues to stay in the consolidation. The pair is trading above the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 121.60, 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the euro amid the weakening expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate at the September meeting. The US producers’ prices index was expected to decrease in August by 0.1% compared with the previous month and will fall by 0.9% compared to last year August. The expectations concerning the producer prices and consumer confidence decline deepen the doubts that the Fed will raise interest rates in September.

The pair dollar/franc continues to trade in a narrow range. By the end of the week the pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 0.9750. We believe that is a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German government bonds yields growth relative to their US counterparts. The European currency continued to strengthen in the pair with the US dollar as investors found no support in the American economic fundamental publication. However the pair decreased by the end of the trades.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The oil prices decline has not allowed the British currency to take advantage from the US consumer confidence weak data.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in the flat amid the quotations moderate decrease in the world leading stock markets. Nevertheless the trades closed with the pair’s decrease.

This week the US Federal Reserve meeting is in the center of our attention. There are concerns about the possible stock market collapse amid the rates increase. The reason for the rate increase can be the core inflation growth from 1.8% y/y to 1.9% y/y which is published on Wednesday. The Fed officials have repeatedly stated that it is not necessary to wait for the exact target of 2.0% to raise interest rates.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The July Eurozone industrial production moderately positive data may support the European currency in the short term. The data came out better then forecasted 0,3%: in fact it showd 0,6%. Meanwhile, the bond market is sending bearish signals: the Germany and the US bond yields are again increasing which reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness.

The price continued its upward movement. There was a short-term resistance level of 1.1325 breakthrough. Then the pair fell under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1410 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1530.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize in the range of 48.00 -50.50. This factor has a negative impact on the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The UK government bond yields show a moderate growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts that supports the British currency.

The pair is trading in a flat. After the resistance level of 1.5460 the price tested the support level of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5550. After breaking 1.5550 the buyers may go to 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Friday BSI large manufacturing business conditions strong report indicates the manufacturing sector business activity growth which is a positive factor for the Japanese economy and may support the national currency in the short term. In addition, the US and the Japanese government bond yields are declining that reduces the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets.

The price started a weak correction. The pair broke through th support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a calm trading in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of this week. Almost all the major pairs remained within their ranges as traders continue to be nervous anticipating the Fed.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the Brent crude oil decline by 3%. The only notable macroeconomic release was the euro area industrial production report which was significantly higher than expected. The reaction to it was minimal as the market sentiments and the foreign stock exchanges dynamics are playing the single currency driver role.

The GBP/USD has sharply fallen. Earlier it symbolically strengthened amid the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The currency faced with the increased volatility because of “the Central Bank race": today the Bank of England like the Fed is inclined to interest rates increase.

The pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the capital flight from the "risky assets" into the funding currency. This week the Bank of Japan decided not to change the monetary policy course, saying that the economy and inflation can be recovered with the current incentives. By the end of the trades the pair strengthened.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There were not great changes on the debt market at the beginning of the week: the Germany and the US government bond yields were in the flat. The Germany business climate data, presented by the Zew Institute, were of particular interest. The index decreased more then the forecasted median: 12,1 vs 18,4. The index was 25,0 in August. Investors received the US retail sales report which is expected to reach the consensus forecast amid the household income growth and the unemployment reduction. However, the growth was 0,2% vs forecasted 0,3%.

The price started the weak downward correction. After a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1325 the pair tested the support level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1325 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1410 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was the UK government bond yields increase in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will contribute to the British currency demand. The market attention will be focused on the UK inflation report which is expected to reach 0.0% after the previous 0.1%. the data came out at the forecasted median.

The pound exchange rate cannot continue its upward movement. After the level of 1.5460 testing the pair pound/dollar sharply fell and broke through the support level of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5390, 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event in the morning. We expect the moderate positive comments by Mr. Kuroda. The BoJ kept the monetary politic unchanged. Yesterday we saw the bearish sentiment prevalence in the world leading exchanges which also contributes to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price continues its weak downward movement. The pair fell below the support level of 120.40 but by the end of the trades the pair returned at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar rose against most currencies despite the US weak economic reports. Investors took a wait and see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve System forthcoming meeting results.

The EUR/USD pair decreased amid the August US retail sales positive data. In addition, the Zew report put pressure on the euro to which the German economic confidence index weakened sharply in September having reached the 10-month low. The business sector sentiment index fell to 12.1 points in September compared to 25.0 points in August. However the euro slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The GBP/USD had decreased amid the US two year Treasury bond yields increase. In addition, the UK inflation report was in the center of attention having shown the August consumer price index growth by 0.2 %, still they were unchanged compared with the previous year. The last change coincided with the experts’ forecasts. Nevertheless, the pair pound/dollar sharply grew.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY increased amid the bullish sentiment in the Japanese and the US stock markets.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the US and Germany bond yields moderate growth which is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Traders did not hurry to open new deals ahead of the US inflation release. The CPI release was expected with the positive data. The CPI came out at the level of forecasted median 0,1%.

The price resumed the upward movement after the support level of 1.1260 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1410, the next one is 1.1530.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK Core CPI indicator is showing the inflation growth by 0.42% compared with the previous month which indicates the UK labor market positive trend. The Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.5% since the beginning of the week which will provide support to the US currency as this factor is not obvious in the pair GBP/USD quotations.

The pound exchange rate began its downward movement, but the support level of 1.5390 was short-term. The pair sharply increased and broke through the levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday the US positive macroeconomic statistics was published. The statistics caused the two year Treasury bond securities growth which reflects the Fed rate expectations. The bond securities growth ahead of the monetary control meeting is a positive factor for the US currency. The profitability increased to the level of 0.8%, having set the fresh four-year high.

The price is correcting against the weak downward movement. The pair grew and the resistance level of 120.40 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has fallen to the three weeks minimum against the most major currencies. The US economic data turned out to be weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at the September meeting.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 11 thousand having fallen to 264 thousand.

The EUR/USD has increased amid the oil quotations growth after the US crude oil stockpiles positive publication. Last week stocks fell slightly by more than 2 million barrels which supported the demand for the “black gold".

The pair GBP/USD had increased by the end of the day. The pound has significantly strengthened against the US dollar, having offset all positions that had been lost the other day. The currency was supported by the UK labor market strong data. As it became known, the UK workers’ average earnings (excluding bonuses) have significantly increased for three months (to July), having registered the highest rates for more than six years.

The pair USD/JPY had grown. The yen has significantly decreased against the US dollar, having reached the minimum at the same time. The news that the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization has revised the world economic growth forecast over the next 2 years put pressure on the yen. However the pair decreased after the Fed’s meeting results publication.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Federal Reserve monetary policy two-day meeting results was the main event of the day. The August Eurozone revised inflation data were published yesterday. The report recorded the index output into the negative territory. This factor is negative for the euro as the deflation threat may again rise rumors about the ECB possible program expansion.

After a short-term consolidation the pair euro/dollar sharply grew and tested the resistance level of 1.1410.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1530, 1.1590.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The FOMC announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results. The FOMC did not change the rate. Traders expected the retail sales positive data. The forecasts proved to be true in month terms: in fact 0.2% vs. 0.2%. In annual terms the data were in the red zone: 3.7% against the expected 3.8% whereas previously there was 4.1%.

The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend. The pair grew above the resistance level of 1.5550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders expected the US Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy. The Fed published its decision to keep the rate at the level of 0,25%.The US government bond yields have been greatly increasing for the last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Yesterday the Nasdaq index demonstrated the weakest growth from the major stock indices which signals about the investors’ exit from the risky assets.

The price resumed its upward movement. However, the dollar sharply fell by the end of the trades. The pair tested the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

17.11.16

Fundamental and technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro softened on the back of strong dollar and lack of drivers from the Eurozone. Moreover, investors keep pricing in the Fed possibility to hike rates in December.

Current situation

The EUR/USD failed to hold to gains and turned negative after the opening on Wednesday. The euro continued to grind lower and tested 1.0700 at the London open. The price touched the 50-EMA and bounced downwards in the 1 hour chart. All moving averages continued moving lower. The resistance is seen at 1.0750, the support could be found at 1.0700.

Technical indicators retained bearish signals. MACD remained in the negative area. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative area.

Trading recommendations

We believe the euro will maintain its bearish momentum in the short-term. The 1.0700 level is likely to be broken soon and the level 1.0650 appears to be the next intraday support and probable bearish target.

Pound

General overview

Mixed employment data in the UK weighed on the pound. Average Earnings including Bonus fell together with Claimant Count Change while Unemployment Rate grew.

Current situation

As for the technical outlook the pair held a bullish tone during the Asian and European hours on Wednesday. The pound was hovering above 1.2400 trying to extend its recovery. The level 1.2500 appeared to be a strong barrier on its way upwards. After testing the level prices rolled back and reached 1.2400 ahead of the NY session. The price kept struggling with the 200-EMA ahead of London opening. The line limited its further gains in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400.

Technical indicators are neutral now. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was holding near overbought levels, favoring a move lower.

Trading recommendations

Failure to hold above 1.2500 risks a slide to 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the level 1.2300 will come back to the radar.

Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY continued with gains due to risk-on sentiment. Nikkei 225 reached the highest since February supporting the safe heaven yen. The U.S. dollar is strong across the board amid renewed hopes that the Fed will hike the rate this year.

Current situation

The pair trades in an upward channel. The U.S. dollar was hovering near multi month highs against its Japanese counterpart on Wednesday. The dollar climbed higher and reached the mark 109.50 in the mid-European session. Traders failed to extend their gains, the price turned around and retreated back to 109.00. The USD/JPY pair traded well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages 50, 100 and 200 accelerated their growth. The resistance can be found at 110.00, the support comes in at 109.00.

The technical indicators retained bullish signals. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The price seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 110.00. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 110.50 could be observed further. A break below 109.00 will ease the upward pressure. The USD/JPY may soften to 108.00 and lower to the mark 107.50.

USD/CAD

General overview

The USD/CAD strengthened on Wednesday amid oil prices decline.

Current situation

The pair is in an ascending channel, trading around its lower boundary. A two day decline was stopped when prices met a barrier around 1.3400. Prices bounced from the oversold area and trended upwards during the course of the day. The US dollar broke the level 1.3470 in late European trades. After breaking the level the USD/CAD extended its gains heading towards 1.3540. The bullish spike faded after testing the 1.3500 mark. The USD/CAD pair came across a selling pressure and returned to opening prices. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages extended their growth in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.3470, the support can be found at 1.3400.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area and headed north.

Trading recommendations

The pair is turning bullish now. A consolidation above 1.3470 will strengthen buyers' positions. Bulls may lead prices towards 1.3540.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices traded higher on Wednesday however its gains are limited due to renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates in December.

Current situation

A consolidation phase remained intact on Wednesday. Buyers managed to reverse just a minor part of their losses before the recovery action stalled around 1230 dollars per ounce. An attempt to reclaim the 1230 level failed during the European trades. The yellow metal rolled back immediately after the level test. According to the 1 hour chart the pair failed to break the 50-EMA. The moving appeared to be a solid barrier which rejected the yellow metal downwards. The moving averages pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce.

The technical indicators headed lower within negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.

Trading recommendations

The price came across fresh selling offers around 1230 dollars per ounce. A failed test of the barrier may renew the selling interest sending prices to 1210 through 1220.

Brent

General overview

Oil prices hold onto gains despite the U.S. crude inventories increase.

Current situation

Oil prices retreated from 2 week high on Wednesday. The benchmark met a barrier around 47.50 where buyers lost strength and turned around. Traders pushed Brent futures down and tested 46.50 dollars per barrel in the mid-Europe trades. The ongoing weakening could be attributed to some profit taking from bull following two day rally. Brent oil prices bounced from the 100-EMA and moved lower. The price is sandwiched between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The indicators bounced from oversold level. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

Buyers are unable to climb above 47.50 for now. Bears took control over the market and drove prices lower. Should the Brent prices lose ground and advance below 46.50, the decline can extend in the short term to 45.50 first. The second sellers' target lies at 44.50 dollars per barrel.

DAX

General overview

European shares traded higher amid mining stocks strengthening alongside with Wire Card and Bouygues shares.

Current situation

The index traded in a wide range between 10700 and 10800 during the first part of the day. Sellers seemed to be getting more control as weak buyers failed to retake the 10800 mark. The index sharply moved below 10700 and tested 10600 post-European open. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving briefly slowed down the index decline. The moving averages presented modest bullish slopes. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area and moved south.

Trading recommendations

The overall picture is bearish now. Firm break below 10700 handle would open the way to 10600 and further out to 10500.

NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street moved lower on Wednesday amid oil prices decrease.

Current situation

The market sentiment switched to a bearish one. The benchmark recovery lost legs just above 4770. The index turned around and softened right after piercing the level. NASDAQ now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 4740. A failure test of the 100-EMA caused a sell-off and the index weakening. The price is in-between the 100 and 50 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The lines act as a resistance and a support for the benchmark. The resistance is seen at 4770, the support is at 4740.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The further upmove is expected to face stiff barrier around the current resistance. The index is overbought and the move below 4740 shall ease the buying pressure. Sellers will try to drive prices to the level 4710.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

18.11.2016

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone CPI for October matched the estimates while CPI monthly reading fell short-of expectations. The dollar slightly softened but remained onto fresh highs. The dollar continued getting support from market expectations for a December Fed rate-hike and possible improvements in economic growth.

Current situation

The market sentiment was negative on Thursday. The EUR/USD remained in a descending channel, close to its lower boundary. The price was quite during the Asian trades around recent lows at 1.0700. The euro bounced from 1.0700 and moved higher in the European session. The upward momentum ran out of steam when approached the level 1.0750, as a result the common currency moved back. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 1 hour chart. The euro broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the same chart. The resistance is seen at 1.0750, the support could be found at 1.0700.

The technical indicators maintained bearish momentum within negative territory. The MACD and RSI indicators continued consolidating within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

A failure to hold above 1.0700 risks a slide to 1.0650. At the same time a further strengthening will not be possible until the pair breaks above 1.0750.

Pound

General overview

The pound strengthened on the back of better-than-expected Retail Sales.

Current situation

The British currency was range-bound-to lower during the Asian hours on Thursday. The GBP/USD strengthened ahead of the Europe opening. The price spiked and tested the upper limit of the range. However the pair rolled back when the advance lost upward momentum. Prices bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The upward trajectory was stopped by the 200-EMA. The moving averages are still neutral. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support is at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative area.

Trading recommendations

The pound needs fresh drivers to leave the current range. A break above 1.2500 will open the way towards 1.2550. A daily close below 1.2400 would risk 1.2350.

Yen

General overview

The yen retreated from the daily highs after the BoJ’s decision to buy unlimited amount of JGBs.

Current situation

Fresh buying pressure around the U.S. dollar boosted USD/JPY to fresh highs. After refreshing highs at 109.76 prices rolled back and returned to the nearest support region. The pair was under pressure struggling hard with the 109.00 level to go lower on Thursday. The pair bounced from the support 109.00 and trended higher ahead of the NY opening. The price tested and bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA became a solid barrier which limited the dollar further weakness. All moving averages were pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 110.00, the support comes in at 109.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook is neutral/bullish. A firm break below 109.00 handle would open the way towards 108.00. Nevertheless, we would be buying the pair until it stays above 109.00.

AUD/USD

General overview

The Aussie edged lower on Thursday on the back of weaker jobs data.

Current situation

The AUD/USD slightly strengthened in the Asian session on Thursday. Prices were able to escalate to 0.7500 where a bid tone lost its legs. The price weakened and returned to opening prices in the mid-Asia. Sellers struggled with buyers to break the 0.7470 level during the European session. The AUD/USD pair finally broke the level ahead of the NY opening. After breaking 0.7470 the Aussie continued to lose its value. The pair remained well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages extended their decline. The resistance is at 0.7470, the support can be found at 0.7435.

The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI remained within oversold levels.

Trading recommendations

After a daily close below 0.7470 we could see the pair extending down to the 0.7435 region during the next days.

XAUUSD

General overview

Gold prices gained on yesterday's trades when the dollar moved from the 14 years high. Besides, the markets took a breath awaiting for J.Yellen's testimony.

Current situation

Gold prices remained flat on Thursday. The trading range narrowed and prices traded between 1225 and 1230 dollars per ounce during the day. The yellow metal slightly grew from the lower limit of the range to its upper one. However its recovery stalled after testing the 1230 level. According to 1 hour chart the pair broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA. The 100-EMA slowed down the XAU/USD pair acting as a resistance. The 50-EMA is neutral in the mentioned timeframe while the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slopes. The resistance is at 1230, the support comes in at 1220 dollars per ounce.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator consolidated within negative levels.

Trading recommendations

A break above 1230 will suggest further extension towards 1240. Conversely, a strong breakdown and close below 1220 could send prices lower towards 1210 dollars per ounce.

Brent

General overview

Oil prices turned higher on Thursday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih's testimony that he was optimistic over OPEC preliminary oil freeze deal which was reached in September.

Current situation

Brent had a positive day on Thursday. Bulls maintained control extending their near-term upward trajectory. A fresh buying interest around 46.50 pushed the benchmark higher. Oil prices rallied and reached the level 47.50 ahead of the NY session. The benchmark started the day between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. Brent futures were able to test the 100-EMA ahead of the New York session. The 50-EMA is neutral while the 100 and 200 EMAs kept moving lower. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel.

The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI remained within overbought levels.

Trading recommendations

If Brent futures break 47.50 the level 48.50 may become an attractive target for bulls.

DAX

General overview

European stocks traded higher focusing on Yellen's speech. The mining stocks added while the financial stocks were on the downside. South African Investec company jumped to 6-month high after its latest corporate earning report.

Current situation

The index gapped higher at the open on Thursday. Traders were unable to develop an upward trajectory which immediately faded after the gap. Prices turned lower and dropped to 10600 where they stayed before the North American session. The 50-EMA stopped the downward impetus rejecting prices upwards. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.

Trading recommendations

The DAX index will remain in bulls’ hands while the benchmark holds above 10600. Only a clear break below the level will ease the current bid sentiment. In this scenario sellers will lead prices to 10500. A failure to break the current support level will suggest an upward continuation towards 10800.

S&P500

General overview

Wall Street opened neutral awaiting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech.

Current situation

After refreshing monthly highs at 2184 the index rolled back. S&P500 softened to the mark 2170 which stopped its decline. The index remained onto fresh highs staying between 1270 and 1280 on Thursday. The 1 hour chart showed that the price stayed around the 50-EMA which limited its downside extension. The moving averages maintained bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2170.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory.

Trading recommendations

A strong break and close above 2180 could send prices higher towards 2190. However, the benchmark is overbought and we do not exclude a large correction towards 2150.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

07.12.2016

Euro

General overview

Positive GDP in Eurozone together with Factory Orders in Germany supported the single currency on Tuesday. After Renzi's resignation a temporary government will probably work instead in Italy. A new Italian Government is likely to be elected in February.

Current situation

The EUR/USD switched its tone to negative on Tuesday. Buyers took a pause after an impressive rally on Monday and consolidated their gains. After posting a session high at 1.0785, the pair turned lower and erased some of its recent gains. EUR/USD broke 1.0750 and headed towards 1.0700 ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested 200 EMA and bounced downwards immediately after the test. The 200 and 100 EMAs pointed lower, while 50 EMA moved higher. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.

The MACD histogram moved lower which indicates buyers’ weakening. The RSI indicator left overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

A break below 1.0750 suggests further weakness of the pair. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels 1.0700 and 1.0650.

Pound

General overview

Despite the empty macroeconomic calendar the pound maintained its bid tone on Tuesday.

Current situation

The pound extended its bullish momentum and refreshed two-month highs on Tuesday. Having broken 1.2700 the pair was able to grow to 1.2770 where the price stayed during the day. The GBP/USD pair hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. Moving averages all pointed higher. The resistance lies at 1.2800, the support comes in at 1.2700.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. We also noted MACD divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI stayed within overvalued levels.

Trading recommendations

If the pound retains its bid tone we suppose the pair will grow to 1.2800. Conversely, a downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1.2700. In this scenario sellers will drive prices to 1.2600.

Yen

General overview

The pair was neutral on Tuesday amid a lack of any serious releases in Japan. The USA published some minor reports: Trade Balance and Factory Orders.

Current situation

Overall structure was firmly bullish on Tuesday. The USD/JPY remained in an ascending channel, trading close to its lower limit. The dollar wasn’t able to post fresh gains versus the yen but refused to give up. The pair extended its consolidation phase under fresh highs at 114.80 and spent the day around 114.00. The price tested and bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator stayed neutral.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards the 115.00 resistance area. A failure here will send this market to 113.00 and further out to 112.00. A move below 112.00 will ease the current buying pressure.

AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar weakened following the RBA decision to leave the rate unchanged. Moreover, the regulator pointed to a possible near-term economic slowdown in the country.

Current situation

After facing rejection near the 0.7500 mark, the pair came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and reversed all of its gains recorded in the previous session. The AUD returned to 0.7450 region where it spent the European session. The price made a timid attempt to recover ahead of the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced upwards from the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50 EMA crossed the 100 EMA upwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, while the 50 EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7450.

MACD entered the positive area. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair may extend its recovery if it stays above 0.7450. Traders may push prices higher towards 0.7500. The 0.7500 resistance area appeared to be a tough nut to crack, prices have bounced a number of times from it. A new failure here will reject the AUD/USD pair to 0.7450. If buyers succeed the Australian dollar will extend gains towards 0.7550.

XAU/USD

General overview

Gold was down and stayed near 10-month low as the expectations for a possible Fed interest rate hike continued to weigh on the yellow metal.

Current situation

Gold prices maintained their neutral stance on Tuesday. Having bounced from 1160 the precious metal jumped to 1170. The pair stayed confined within a tight trading range between 1170-1175 dollars per ounce during the day. XAU/USD remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We would be selling the pair only if the price drops below 1170. In this scenario the potential target is at 1160 dollars per ounce.

Brent

General overview

Oil prices moved lower on profit taking after a strong last week rally. Traders focused their attention on how OPEC will implement its deal to cut output.

Current situation

Oil prices retreated from yearly highs amid some profit-taking. The price moved lower and broke 54.50 dollars per barrel post-Europe open. After breaking the level the benchmark extended its losses towards 53.50 which tested ahead of the NA opening. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200 EMA was neutral while the 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought levels and moved downwards.

MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near overvalued level and headed south.

Trading recommendations

If a gloomy trend retains Brent will break 53.50 in the upcoming sessions. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 52.50 and 51.50 dollars per barrel.

DAX

General overview

European stocks opened flat experiencing pressure amid oil prices decline.

Current situation

The index gapped lower at the open on Tuesday. The price slightly weakened after the gap and posted the daily lowest point at 10661. DAX reversed its direction at the beginning of the European session. Prices strengthened above 10700 and set a daily high 10751. The 4 hours chart showed that the price is above the moving averages. All moving averages were neutral during the day. The resistance exists at 10800, the support stands at 10700.

MACD traded to the upside. The RSI indicator remains within overvalued readings.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 10700, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 10600 and 10650. A move higher will keep buyers’ in the driver’s seat and will extend gains towards 10750.

NASDAQ

General overview

Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday as energy stocks weighed on. NASDAQ got some support in early trades from technology shares growth.

Current situation

The index showed mixed trades on Tuesday. NASADAQ made slightly higher in the early trades trying to reclaim 4800. The upward impetus lost its strength around the level. Having faced a rejection here the index moved lower and returned to the opening price. The benchmark remained under pressure during the NY hours struggling hard to break 4770. The price tested 200 EMA but failed to break it in the 4 hours chart. The 200 and 50 EMAs pointed lower while the 100 EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 4800, the support comes in at 4770.

MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the neutral area.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the NASDAQ index will turn lower. As the most probable scenario, we consider a break below 4770 and bearishness extension towards 4740 and 4710.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[lioneld]

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