Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 19: MARKET OVERVIEW

USD: FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT will be the highlight of the day. The overall tone of the document will likely be hawkish.

EUR/USD: trades slightly above 1.2500.

GBP/USD: once again tested 1.5600. The Bank of England will release its Nov. meeting minutes at 09:30 a.m. GMT. The last time 2 hawkish members voted to raise the benchmark interest rate. Traders will watch whether these MPC members have become less hawkish.

USD/JPY: rose above 117.30. At today’s meeting the Bank of Japan announced it retains plan for 80T yen annual rise in monetary base. The BOJ’s policy decision was made by 8-1 vote: one member of the central bank thought that the previous monetary policy steps were appropriate and that 2% inflation target should be a medium- to long-term goal.

AUD/USD: down to 0.8650 on renewed selling pressure.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1965

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2450 (large), 1.2485 (large), 1.2500 (large), 1.2520/30 (large), 1.2590/1.2600 (large);

USD/JPY: 115.50 (large), 116.00 (large), 116.50 (large), 117.00 (large), 117.50 (large);

GBP/USD: 1.5600, 1.5700 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.8650;

NZD/USD: 0.7900/10 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1966

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 19

Open positions:

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5745

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2505, Take Profit 1.2342, Stop Loss 1.2582

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 116.93, Take Profit 117.95, Stop Loss 116.29

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9600, Take Profit 0.9741, Stop Loss 0.9550

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 145.80, Take Profit 148.00, Stop Loss 145.41

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.05, Take Profit 186.60, Stop Loss 181.05

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4130, Take Profit 1.3890, Stop Loss 1.4230

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7975, Take Profit 0.8066, Stop Loss 0.7930

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.8742, Take Profit 0.8591, Stop Loss 0.8799

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.1285, Take Profit 1.1500, Stop Loss 1.1222

NZD/USD: SELL from 0.7920, Take Profit 0.7712, Stop Loss 0. 7980

__________________________________________________________________

Danske Bank applies trailing-stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2893

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 20: MARKET REVIEW

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday showed the Fed was still on track to hike interest rates next year and doesn’t care about the USD appreciation. Few participants expressed concern about the disinflationary pressures.

Risk sentiment weakened as China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to the critical 50.0 level (forecast – 50.2). First contraction in 6-months. AUD and NZD lower on the news.

USD/JPY: rose to the 7-year high in the area of 118.70 on the expectations Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will win elections and extend his economic stimulus program. Yen fell even despite Japanese exports rose the most in 8 months.

EUR/USD: consolidates at 1.2530 after hitting 1.2600 on Wednesday. Watch the euro zone’s PMI releases at 8:00- 9:00 GMT (forecasts – slight improvement).

GBP/USD: edged down to 1.5660. Britain will release retail sales at 09:30 GMT.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1976

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2500 (EUR 2.4bln), 1.2525 (EUR 569m) 1.2550 (EUR 770m), 1.2580 (EUR 603m), 1.2600 (EUR 1.7bln);

USD/JPY: 117.00 (USD 740m), 117.50 (USD 700m), 118.00 (USD 960m);

USD/CHF: 0.9590 (USD 526m), 0.9600 (USD 320m);

AUD/USD: 0.8550 (AUD 1.13bln), 0.8600 (AUD 1.25bln), 0.8735 (AUD 457m);

USD/CAD: 1.1275 (USD 430m), 1.1320 (USD 216m), 1.1400 (USD 240m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7910 (EUR 550m), 0.7925 (EUR 755m), 0.7980 (EUR 250m), 0.8000 (EUR200m).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1977

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks:how to trade EUR/USD?

Credit Suisse: Hold LONG from 1.2578 (From Nov. 20)

Morgan Stanley: Hold LONG from 1.2510, Take Profit 1.2900, Stop Loss 1.2410 (From Nov. 18)

JP Morgan: Hold SHORT from 1.2474, Stop Loss 1.2735 (From Nov. 14)

BNP Paribas: Hold SHORT from 1.2520, Take Profit 1.1800, Stop Loss 1.2800 (From Oct. 31)

Citi: Hold SHORT from 1.2771, Take Profit 1.2200, Stop Loss 1.3010 (From Oct. 21)

Credit Agricole: Hold LONG from 1.2660, Take Profit 1.3100, Stop Loss 1.2350 (From Oct. 10)

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2904

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov. 21

EUR/USD hovered in the narrow 1.2600/1.2500 range on Thursday following the dovish FOMC minutes and downbeat euro zone’s PMI indices. The one and only event to watch on Friday will be the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi at 9:00 GMT.

Britain released positive retail sales data, while US figures were lower than expected. GBP/USD may test resistance in the area of 1.5730/80, but we recommend selling from the latter level.

USD/JPY is pulling back after reaching 119. Seek to establish new longs at 117.90/20 targeting the psychological level of 120 yen.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2907

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 21: MARKET REVIEW

Asian equities higher on Friday as the yesterday’s releases confirm US economic strength. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index jumped to 40.8 from 20.7 in October, the highest since December 1993.

USD/JPY: corrected down to 117.35. The pair needs to overcome resistance at 118.00 in the short term to regain bullish momentum. Yen strengthened as Finance Minister Taro Aso warned that its recent weakening was “too rapid.” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally dissolved Japan’s Lower House in preparation for the Dec. 14 snap election. Abe will likely hold a press conference today.

EUR/USD: consolidates slightly above the 1.2500 mark. The ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 8:00 GMT. The German Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks later at 10:15 GMT.

GBP/USD: below resistance in the 1.5730/40 area. Britain will release public sector net borrowing data at 09:00 GMT.

AUD/USD: formed a doji candle on Thursday. Recovery capped at 0.8650.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1986

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2500 (EUR 1.1bln), 1.2550 (EUR 851m), 1.2580 (EUR 1.3bln), 1.2615/20 (EUR 716m), 1.2650 (EUR 2.2bln);

USD/JPY: 117.50 (USD 350m), 118.25 (USD 400m), 118.50 (USD 710m);

USD/CHF: 0.9675 (USD 1.1bln), 0.9700 (USD 600m);

AUD/USD: 0.8600 (AUD 230m);

USD/CAD: 1.1400 (USD 310m), 1.1500 (USD 921m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7825 (EUR 1.1bln), 0.7850, 0.7925 (EUR 302m).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1987

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 24: MARKET REVIEW

USD/JPY: rose to 118.00 after a dip to 115.57. Yen declined a bit as polls showed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party has the most support after he called early elections. Japanese public and market holiday today led to reduced liquidity during the Asian session.

EUR/USD: gapped down, approaching the 28-month low of 1.2350, but recovered towards 1.2390. German Ifo Business Climate will be released at 9:00 GMT (forecast – downbeat).

GBP/USD: edged up to 1.5670.

AUD/USD: consolidates in the 0.8660/8700 area. People's Bank of China unexpectedly announced interest rate cuts on Friday, opening the way for more easing.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1993

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2400, 1.2425 (EUR 418m), 1.2500 (EUR 1.1bln);

USD/JPY: 117.25;

USD/CAD: 1.1250;

AUD/USD: 0.8610 (AUD 1bln), 0.8800 (AUD 840m);

EUR/JPY:146.00 (EUR 568m).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1995

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 24

Open positions*:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 117.70, Take Profit 119.84, Stop Loss116.79

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5745

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.2435, Take Profit 1.2289, Stop Loss 1.2507

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9650, Take Profit 0.9818, Stop Loss 0.9605

EUR/JPY: SELL at 146.74, Take Profit 144.32, Stop Loss 148.05

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7955, Take Profit 0.7799, Stop Loss 0.8010

AUD/USD: Look to SELL

USD/CAD: Look to BUY lower

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

GBP/JPY: Look to BUY

NZD/USD: Look to SELL

________________________________

Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov. 25

FX BAZOOKA analysts claim that euro and pound remain under pressure vs. US dollar.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2929

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR / USD: weekly Wave Analysis

Roman Petukhov

Weekly. The building of the final part of a convergent horizontal triangle B continues. Currently zigzag [E], the layout is discussed below.

Daily. Zigzag [E] comprises two pulses (A) and (C) and a small corrective wave (B). At the moment the end of the zigzag - wave 5 of (C) is formed. To determine the possible price movement to a new week, one should consider the details of the markings on H4.

H4. The market is fully formed the first four waves of the impulse 5. After correction [iv] of 5, the pair falling will proceed in a new descending wave [v] of 5. On the new week it is expected to continue to reduce the pulse as it is indicated in the figure.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2931

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD / USD: weekly Wave Analysis

Roman Petukhov

Weekly. The market forms a long downward correction , that takes the form of a Triple Zigzag. At present, the final descending zigzag (z) of is formed.

Daily. The graph shows the layout of the last section. Zigzag (z) is a simple three-wave motion ABC. And the momentum looks totally complete. At the moment the beginning of the correction B is formed .

H4. After completion of the descending wave A formation, we saw the beginning of the construction of a new correctional wave B. It is difficult to say what form of the wave it will be, but it is likely that in the coming weeks we will see the development of the lateral flat market. It is recommended to be cautious in trading on this range, it is better to pay attention to other currency pairs.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2932

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD / JPY: weekly Wave Analysis

Roman Petukhov

Daily. The formation of the end of a powerful and long-lasting uptrend continues. On the last section the development of the bullish pulse V takes place. Lets consider its marking in details.

H12. The impulse V is the classical motion of five waves. As for now the last part of the most recent uptrend is formed . One can consider the graph on H4.

H4. The detailed layout plot shows that the construction of the bullish trend has been completed. In the near future we can see the gradual correction or rapid pulse decrease. In this situation it is not recommended to hold long positions hoping that the trend will be continuated.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2933

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP / USD: weekly Wave Analysis

Roman Petukhov

Weekly. The market continues to generate a strong downward momentum C, which is a part of the global zigzag ABC.

Daily. After the completion of the correctional wave [2] construction the decreasing of the currency pair was proceeded within the new downtrend. one can consider the graph more detailed to refine judgment.

H4. There are chances that the downward movement accelerates. If the assumption is true, we will see a good reduction in the wave 3 of (3) the next week. However, if the market starts to fall in the first half of the week, then one should be wary, because this will mean that more complex wave is forming than it was originally anticipated.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2934

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 25: MARKET REVIEW

USD/JPY: the pair is consolidating in the 117.50/118.50. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda declined to comment on whether recent yen declines were too rapid.

EUR/USD: consolidates in the narrow 1.2420/20 range. No releases on the euro zone’s agenda scheduled for today.

GBP/USD: the pair once again returned below 1.5700. Inflation report hearings will start in Britain at 10:00 GMT.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD extend the downside after the overnight drop.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2002

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Barclays Capital: fresh Forex forecasts

Here are the most recent currency forecasts by Barclays Capital.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2938

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 25

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2435, Take Profit 1.2289, Stop Loss 1.2507

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 117.70, Take Profit 119.84, Stop Loss117.03

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5745

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.50, Take Profit 188.50, Stop Loss 184.45

Trade ideas:

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9650, Take Profit 0.9818, Stop Loss 0.9605

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7955, Take Profit 0.7799, Stop Loss 0.8010

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.8650, Take Profit 0.8450, Stop Loss 0.8750

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7880, Take Profit 0.7660, Stop Loss 0.7980

EUR/JPY: Look to BUY lower

USD/CAD: Look to BUY lower

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

________________________________

Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2937