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[Volkov Yuriy]

Hormuz shakes global markets again​

The U.S.–Iran conflict remains in a phase of fragile de-escalation: the ceasefire formally holds, but negotiations are taking place indirectly through mediators in Qatar. The sides are trying to agree on further terms regarding sanctions, the nuclear program, and the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the situation remains unstable: isolated incidents in the region and disagreements over navigation rules can quickly bring the military risk premium back into the market. Transit through the strait is gradually recovering, but its operation is still uneven and depends on the further course of negotiations.

In focus for traders:

• EURUSD. A new escalation of the conflict may support the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on EURUSD. However, the pair’s reaction will depend not only on geopolitics: rising oil prices can increase inflation risks in the U.S. and expectations of tighter Fed policy, further supporting the dollar. A sustained easing of tensions, weaker oil prices, and reduced inflation risks in the U.S., on the contrary, may support the euro against the dollar.
• #Brent. More predictable and safer shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may reduce the geopolitical premium in #Brent prices. Any attacks on vessels, export disruptions, or a breakdown in negotiations can quickly restore the risk premium and support prices.
• #WTI. WTI crude will react to the Middle East conflict through changes in the global supply-demand balance, but U.S. oil inventories, activity of American producers, and domestic demand are also important. A decline in geopolitical risks may put pressure on prices, but a reduction in U.S. oil inventories can temporarily limit this decline. Disruptions in global supplies will support WTI through an overall market deficit.
• XAUUSD. Gold traditionally gains support amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and demand for safe-haven assets. However, under current conditions this effect may be limited: rising oil prices increase inflation concerns, support U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of tighter Fed policy, which can pressure XAUUSD via a stronger dollar. Progress toward a sustainable agreement between the U.S. and Iran may reduce interest in gold, especially alongside falling yields and a weaker dollar.

The current conflict is developing along a scenario of fragile de-escalation rather than a full political settlement. Negotiations create conditions for the recovery of oil supplies but do not eliminate the key contradictions between the U.S. and Iran. Therefore, financial markets will remain sensitive to any statements by the parties, news about the Strait of Hormuz, and the progress of nuclear talks.

FreshForex analysts recommend that traders closely monitor developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict, as new statements and incidents may trigger sharp market movements. Elevated volatility may persist in EURUSD, #Brent, #WTI, and XAUUSD. Use changes in the global political backdrop to find trading opportunities and be sure to account for increased risks.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for July 02, 2026 XAUUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in Nonfarm Payrolls​

• Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volume in the current contract is located between 4320.00 and 4370.00. Investment activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place below this range, indicating the strength of sellers.

• Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of volume for the medium-term trend is located between 4020.00 and 4040.00. Investment activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place above this range, confirming the strength of buyers.

• The favourable buying area, based on margin requirements, is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of July 1, 2026.

• The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 4067.79.

• The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 4016.89.

• Intraday target: a retest of the July 1, 2026 high at 4118.79.

• Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the Golden Weekly Control Zone at 4265.79.

• Trading idea: consider buying from the favourable price range once a reversal pattern is formed.

• Buy: 4016.89–4067.79, Take Profit 1: 4118.79, Take Profit 2: 4265.79.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 3, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

16:45 EET. USD – Composite PMI

USDJPY:

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USDJPY is facing a changing short-term balance after comments from Tokyo. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that authorities were ready to respond to currency moves at any time if necessary and remained in contact with their US counterparts. The remarks followed a sharp strengthening of the yen, which had earlier reached a multi-year low during the week. This increases the relevance of the risk of official action.

At the same time, the June US employment report weakened the case for an early Federal Reserve rate hike. Employment increased by only 57,000 against expectations of 110,000, while short-term US Treasury yields declined. Reduced interest rate support for the US dollar is important for a pair where the rate differential has been a key source of demand for the US currency. A member of Japan’s government advisory panel also called on the Bank of Japan to continue gradually raising rates.

The wide rate differential still limits the potential for sustained yen strength, and Japanese authorities have not confirmed any intervention. However, the combination of weaker US labour market data and Tokyo’s official warning changes the balance of risks for USDJPY. Under the base-case scenario, further downside remains the preferred outcome while US Treasury yields do not return to growth.

Trading idea: SELL 161.00, SL 161.35, TP 159.95

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