Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 13: MARKET OVERVIEW

Risk sentiment was hurt by new signs of Chinese economic slowdown. China industrial output declined more than expected to 7.7 percent from a year earlier, while fixed investment growth slumped to a 13-year low. Retail sales growth has also come slightly below the forecast. Meanwhile, oil prices slipped to fresh multi-year lows on fears Saudi Arabia won’t support oil output cuts. USD/JPY consolidates below the 116.10 high

The dollar stands firm on the prospects of solid growth in the Unites States with EUR/USD consolidating at 1.2440. GBP/USD plummeted to a fresh 14-month low of 1.5760 as the BOE weak view on domestic inflation pushes back expectations on the timing of an interest rate rise into late 2015.

AUD/USD retraced down from 0.8740 amid weak Chinese figures and oil prices. What’s more, the RBA Assistant Governor Kent hinted on a possible intervention in order to lower the currency.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1930

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 13: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (large), 1.2420/25 (large), 1.2450 (large), 1.2500 (large);

GBP/USD: 1.5800 (large), 1.5850 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9550 (large), 0.9600;

AUD/USD: 0.8625 (large), 0.8675 (large) 0.8800 (large);

NZD/USD: 0.7795 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1931

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 13

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2472, Take Profit 1.2321, Stop Loss 1.2511

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9555, Take Profit 0.9839, Stop Loss 0.9616

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.8725, Take Profit 0.8540, Stop Loss 0.8775

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7920, Take Profit 0.7756, Stop Loss 0.7930

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2075

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 181.65, Take Profit 186.60, Stop Loss 181.70

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: Revised SELL at 1.5807, Take Profit 1.5718, Stop Loss 1.5845

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.1350, Take Profit 1.1121, Stop Loss 1.1417

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4085, Take Profit 1.3855, Stop Loss 1.4180

EUR/JPY: BUY at 142.48, Stop Loss 145.68, Take Profit 141.97

NZD/USD: SELL higher

_________________________________________________________________

*Analysts at Danske Bank apply trailing stop orders

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2852

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov. 14

EUR/USD remains in a short-term triangle: on Thursday the price pushed higher to 1.2470. In our view, the triangle will likely be broken to the downside. The market setup remains bearish as long as the 1.2500 resistance holds. Next resistance lies in the 1.2650/2700 area, but for now we don’t see any fundamental reasons for a sustainable growth. Euro zone is scheduled to release preliminary Q3 GDP data on Friday (6:30-10:00 GMT) and final October CPI at 10:00 GMT.

GBP/USD is now close to our target in the area of 1.5720 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the move from 2013). This is the key technical level to watch. A break lower will make the pair target 1.5600 and 1.5370 (76.8% Fibo). The market’s now expecting the Bank of England’s rate hike further in the future. A weekly close below 1.5980 will confirm the bearish scenario. Resistance is at 1.5905 (bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud). On Friday the main news event will be US retail sales and consumer sentiment.

USD/JPY has been consolidative between 116 and 115. The pair has already priced in some of the potential delay in the sales tax hike and no decision on this issue is expected this week. The bulls need more drivers to push the pair above 116.10 and 116.50. US data tomorrow may more the pair a bit, but taking into account its overbought nature, something as strong as the delay in tax hike is needed to trigger another leg higher.

AUD/USD has been trading in a short-term bullish channel since late last week. The pair dipped to 0.8670 in Asia as the RBA Assistant Governor Kent said the regulator could intervene to the FX market if needed. However, the effect wasn’t really long-playing: the pair pushed higher to 0.8760 later in the day. The 0.8770 area could become a new resistance: this is 61.8% Fibo from the recent decline. Support is now seen at 0.8730 and 0.8680. All eyes on the US data releases in the coming days.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2856

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 14: MARKET OVERVIEW

USD/JPY rose to 116.30 on a new wave of rumors that Prime Minister Abe will delay a sales tax hike as comments from the Japanese officials hint at such a possibility. In addition, the Fed’s Kocherlakota said that if inflation outlook rises, this will support a rate hike in 2015.

EUR/USD slid to 1.2430. The euro zone’s GDP due today: the region’s economy is expected to add 0.1% in Q3 after stagnating in the previous quarter. GBP/USD declined towards 1.5650.

AUD/USD slid below 0.8700. NZD/USD slid to 0.7840. Chinese Premier Li said that Chinese economy is still expected to face relatively big downward pressure next year.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1935

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 14: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (large), 1.2450 (large), 1.2500 (large), 1.2510 (large), 1.2525 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (large);

USD/JPY: 116.00;

USD/CAD: 1.1300 (large), 1.1345, 1.1350, 1.1365 (large), 1.1400 (large), 1.1425, 1.1450, 1.1490, 1.1500;

AUD/USD: 0.8700 (large), 0.8775 (large), 0.8650 (large), 0.8585 (large);

NZD/USD: 0.7790 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1936

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/SGD: trade idea

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

An interesting business opportunity was appeared for the currency pair USD / SGD. The weakness of the American dollar in front of Singapore dollar is obvious, because bulls are unable to break up the resistance level of 1.2920 formed by lines of Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou Span A.

At the moment the pair has finally been сonsolidated within the four-hours clouds and the purpose of the corrective decline may become its lower limit.

Oscillators indicate the falling of the bullish interest. MACD can appear to be in the negative zone soon. Also RSI is moving toward the lower end of the range.

Technical levels: Support - 1.2880, 1.2830; resistance - 1.2920 / 30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell - 1.2900; SL - 1.2930; TP1 - 1.2830; TP2 - 1.2750.

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EURUSD: Weekly Review (14/11)

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Daily. As we have predicted in the previous review, the currency pair consolidated above weekly support 1.2340/50. On the daily timeframe bulls stopped by Tenkan-sen line that formed the resistance at 1.2470. Ichimoku configured negatively: the cloud is bearish nature and still operates dead cross. But all the lines are currently directed sideways.


Thus oscillators show a positive trend.

Graph. Daily EUR/USD

H4. On the 4-hour timeframe Ichimoku lines are also directed sideways, but the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen do not nulify the golden cross. At the same time, strong resistance from the bottom of the cloud doesn't let bulls bulls go further up.


We would like to note that in this time frame MACD crept close to zero. Therefore, in the near future we do not exclude the corrective growth in the area of the 26th figure.


If the resistance of 1.2470 resists, we will wait for the new lows of two weeks ago.

Graph. H4 EUR/USD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2858

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBPUSD: weekly review (14/11)

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Daily. Bears have not only eased the pressure on last week, but also took advantage of the Tenkan-sen line resistance to resume sales of the currency pair. Testing the line was completed in the area of 1.5940 by landslide falling pound, which by the end of the week dropped to the level of 1.5650. Ichimoku line behaved accordingly, which is now directed straight down.


MACDi and RSI show increased bearish trend on the market again.

Graph. Daily GBP/USD
H4. On the 4-hour timeframe the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud performed as major resistance, which unsuccessful test led to the eventual downfall of consumer interest. The indicators are also bearish, but pay attention to the Chinkou span line, which is currently in oversold territory. Possible short-term rebound in the region of 1.5770.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2859

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 17: MARKET REVIEW

USD/JPY touched levels above 117 as Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession (GDP fell by annualized 1.6%), but then slipped to the 115.50 area, because Japanese stocks were hit by the news. Nikkei fell by 2.6%.

EUR/USD pushed higher to 1.2530 after having closed above the 1.2500 figure last week. Watch the German Bundesbank monthly report and the ECB Draghi’s speech later in the day.

GBP/USD edged up to $1.5735 after testing $1.5600 in Friday.

AUD/USD pushed to 0.8790. NZD/USD gapped higher, pushing to 0.7975 amid better-than-expected retail sales data.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1945

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 17: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (large), 1.2475 (large), 1.2490 (large), 1.2500 (large);

USD/JPY: 114.60, 115.00, 116.00 (large), 116.75 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.8750 (large), 0.8700 (large), 0.8650 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1305 (large);

EUR/CHF: 1.1800 (large), 1.2030 (large), 1.2350 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1947

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

By Roman Petukhov

Weekly. The market is forming an ending of a corretive wave which is a threefold downtrend zigzag. At this point, construction of the final zigzag is in process (z).

Daily. After the end of the correction construction (x), we noticed formation of a new bearish impulse A. After its end, the market will be forming correction to this impulse which is marked as wave B on the chart.

H4. Impulse A looks completely finished, according to its wave structure. At the moment, the construction of the wave B beginning is in process, however its future form is not yet clear, thus we recommend to hold back from trading until the situation is clarified. As of today, wave [A] ofB is supposed to obtain the form of a two- or a threefold zigzag. An approximate course of a possilible movement is shown in the picture.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2871

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis

By Roman Petukhov

Daily. The ending development of the global upward trend continues. The most important task at this point is to define the completion point of the wave V construction. To this end, let us look at the markup on the lower time frames.

H12. Wave V structure is presented in the picture. A slight upward impulse of the V [5] has formed in the last section. Let us look at its markup.

H4. The impulse [5] is fully packed with the low-level waves. Therefore, the possibiliy of the upward trend ending increases. If the supposition is right, we will see a corrective or impulse decline.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2870

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis

Weekly. The pair’s forming global descending A-B-C Zigzag, within which it’s building a multi-month bearish trend С.

Daily. In line with the forecasts after the pair finished correction [2], we saw the decline of the price.

H4. The pair’s starting of the new downtrend wave [3]. This week we expect a small correction 2. After that the pair will resume decline.

More:http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2869

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

By Roman Petuchov

Weekly. Global converging horizontal triangle B is coming to an end.

Daily. The market is now forming a bearish zigzag [E] with an impulse (C) inside. It will soon be over. Let's see the markup on the H4 chart in details in order to forecast the weekly prospects.

H4. The market was building a horizontal corrective wave [iv] that is almost over. The decline will likely continue on the new week in the framework of the wave [v] of 5.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2868

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov. 18

Hello, dear traders! The new week has started, so we are once again here for you with the daily trading plans.

EUR/USD: The pair pushed higher on the wave of short-covering, but failed to fix above 1.2550 for now (38.2% Fibo). We expect the upside to be limited by the 1.2600 figure – this is where the medium-term trend resistance lies. On Tuesday watch German and euro zone’s economic sentiment data at 10:00 GMT (forecasts – upbeat).

GBP/USD: The pair started Monday on the positive note, but was viciously rejected at 1.5730. Support is at 1.5600. There may be some consolidation above this point, but then the downtrend will resume. A close below here will make us target 1.5500. On the upside further resistance is at 1.5789 and 1.5875. On Tuesday watch British inflation data (09:30 GMT) – the figures will likely keep GBP under pressure.

USD/JPY: The pair stays above 115.50. PM Abe is widely expected to call a snap election and delay sales tax hike. There’s a talk that Abe he give a press conference tomorrow. USD/JPY may test 107.90 (Oct. 2007 high) on the announcement. Until then the pair will likely remain consolidative with more support at 115.00.

AUD/USD: Bullish demand for the Aussie dollar remains limited by the 0.8800 mark for now.The price is unlikely to overcome this area, at least from the first attempt. Next support to watch lies at 0.8700 and 0.8640. Australia is scheduled to release RBA meeting minutes tonight (00:30 GMT). Later in the day RBA Governor Stevens will deliver a speech in Melbourne (8:25 GMT).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2879

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Nov. 18: MARKET REVIEW

USD/JPY: Japanese Nikkei gained 2.2%, erasing much of Monday's 3% fall, while the pair has lifted to the 116.70 area. The market’s expecting that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will call a snap election that may lead to a delay a sales tax increase and further economic stimulus.

EUR/USD: down from 1.2570 on Monday to 1.2440 on dovish Draghi’s comments (ECB is ready to act further if needed). German and euro zone’s ZEW economic indices will be released at 10:00 GMT (forecasts – upbeat).

GBP/USD: The pair is consolidating in the 1.5620/50 area. Britain will release inflation data at 09:30 GMT.

AUD/USD: attempted to recover in Asia, but was capped at 0.8730. RBA meeting minutes reiterate the period of rate stability.

NZD/USD: follows the Aussie, capped at 0.7940. Global Dairy Trade auction begins at 12:00 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1954

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2450 (large), 1.2480/85 (large), 1.2495/1.2500 (large), 1.2520 (large), 1.2535 (large), 1.2600 (large);

AUD/USD:0.8700 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1955

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 18

Open positions:

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5795

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 145.80, Take Profit 147.53, Stop Loss 144.69

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.05, Take Profit 186.60, Stop Loss 181.05

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7845, Take Profit 0.7997, Stop Loss 0.7820

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.2505, Take Profit 1.2342, Stop Loss 1.2582

USD/JPY: BUY at 115.88, Take Profit 117.47, Stop Loss 115.29

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9600, Take Profit 0.9741, Stop Loss 0.9550

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7926, Take Profit 0.8082, Stop Loss 0.7876

EUR/CHF: SHORT at 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4130 FOR 1.3890, Stop Loss 1.4230

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2886

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov.19

On Wednesday pay attention to the Bank of Japan's meeting during the Asian session and the FOMC meeting minutes release at 07:00 p.m. GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2892