Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 18: MARKET VIDEO REVIEW

• JPY: yen sold heavily, BOJ Gov. Kuroda speaks at 6:35 GMT.
• NZD: Q2 GDP came at 0.7% vs. 0.6% expected.
• USD: dollar is well supported versus Forex majors after the Fed members raised their interest rate forecasts. Yellen will speak at 12:45 GMT.
• EUR: TLTRO at 13:15 GMT.
• GBP: Scotland votes for Independence today, Retail sales at 8:30 GMT.
• CHF: SNB meeting (07:30 GMT): some traders expect the central bank to weaken franc. Watch EUR/CHF. On the upside watch 1.2110, on the downside watch 1.2080.

Watch the video for the tips about EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD and EUR/CHF.

[video=youtube;rQVOOud8ozc]

More:
FX BAZOOKA - Sep. 18: MARKET VIDEO REVIEW

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
18 September 2014

CHF strengthened on the SNB decision

• Benchmark rate unchanged at 0.0-0.25%
• Deposit rate unchanged
• EUR/CHF floor held at 1.2000

The Swiss National Bank didn’t change its policy at today’s meeting, while some traders expected that the regulator will introduce negative interest rate on deposits. As a result, CHF strengthened. EUR/CHF fell to 1.2065, while USD/CHF corrected towards 0.9360.


The SNB said though that CHF is still high, risk of deflation in Switzerland has once again increased, while economic outlook has significantly worsened. The SNB said that it’s ready to act immediately if necessary (interventions). However, the market expected more, and CHF got support.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1747

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
18 September 2014

EUR: weak reaction to TLTRO

TLTRO: 82.6B euro

The ECB announced that the European commercial banks applied for 82.6B euro in the first round of targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO).

Earlier FXBAZOOKA.com reported that, according to the experts, the reading less than 150 billion will be negative for EUR. Still it seems that the market doesn't really know how to react to this piece of news: EUR/USD is trading below $1.2900, but there's no substantial decline on the release.

Don't the European banks need money? Perhaps the banks don't hurry because they know that there will be other TLTROs in future. In addition, a lot of negative factors are already priced in EUR/USD.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1748

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Sep 19

[VIDEO]

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH ON FRIDAY:

CAD: Core CPI & Wholesale Sales (12:30 GMT)

TRADE IDEAS

The disappointing TLTRO didn’t trigger a sizeable decline in EUR/USD. The European banks applied only for 82.6B euro in loans from the ECB, while the market expected a reading above 150B euro. Still, markets are rather calm: the euro zone’s banks are under stress tests the results of which will be released by the end of October, so banks probably don’t want additional burden. Moreover, it’s only the first TLTRO, and there will be other ones in future. On Friday the market will be trading according to the result of the Scottish referendum. “Yes”-vote will be very negative for euro, while “no”-vote will support EUR/USD. Slightly better current account figures are expected in the euro area, though the economic calendar is rather empty. Recovery may take the pair to $1.2950 (base scenario). However, in general the fundamentals for euro still look weak compared with those for USD. The target remains at $1.2800/1.2790, and we expect to see it in the medium term.

British pound was the strongest currency of the day as markets are discounting the “No” campaign to prevail in the Scottish vote. The grade of uncertainty still remains high, however. Vote will finish at 21:00 GMT, while the results will be announced around 5:30 – 6:30 GMT. The moves will clearly be less volatile if Scotland decides to stay. Pound will be bought, but we forecast the $1.6600 area to limit the immediate recovery. The “Yes” victory will trigger a strong downward move as this will be a true shock for the market. The $1.6000 support will easily be broken, bearish target will switch to the $1.5720 area. It is strongly recommended to limit your risks with stop loss orders tonight – no matter are you long or short.

Japanese yen was the weakest currency with USD/JPY surging to 108.80. The pair is overbought, but bullish sentiment remains strong. The 110.60 mark is now in sight – this is the 2008 high. Pay attention to the JPY crosses: EUR/JPY surged above 140 yen, while GBP/JPY broke to a new 6-year high of 178, supported by the GBP bullishness.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2381

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 19: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2850 (large), $1.2900 (large), $1.2950 (large), $1.3000 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6240, $1.6300, $1.6400;

USD/JPY: 107.00, 110.00;

USD/CAD: 1.0925, 1.0950 (large), 1.1050 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9000 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8190, $0.8195, $0.8200 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9400;

EUR/CHF: 1.2150;

EUR/GBP: 0.7800, 0.7825, 0.7900, 0.8000.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1753

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Sep. 22

This weekend there will be a G20 meeting devoted to many of the global problems like Russian-Ukraine crisis. This may have an impact on the market’s risk sentiment, especially during the Asian trading session.

AUD/USD is consolidating between $0.9000 and $0.8930. Watch for a break of this range. New Zealand will release July Westpac Consumer Sentiment index early on Monday. Given the recent strong GDP figures, we can get a positive surprise for NZD/USD from this size.

As for EUR/USD watch for Mario Draghi’s speech at 13:00 GMT. Draghi will probably try so say something positive about TLRTO, providing some support to EUR/USD on the intraday. We are selling euro on the increases.

GBP/USD retraced from the $1.6520 resistance and returned below the $1.6400 mark. The technical picture remains bullish as long as the pair holds above the $1.6300 support.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2396

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 22: MARKET VIDEO REVIEW

• EUR: ECB members say that they are not sure that the ECB should conduct additional monetary stimulus.
• EUR/USD: Mario Draghi will testify to the European Parliament at 13:00 GMT, Existing Home Sales at 14:00 GMT.
• GBP/USD met support at $1.6290
• Risk sentiment: G20 was upbeat about the global economic growth, but cited the euro area as the major risk.
• AUD: concerns about China
• NZD/USD: bullish gap on NZ election results, the New Zealand National coalition wins
• NZ consumer confidence drops in Q3

[VIDEO]

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1755

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Sep. 23

Trade ideas

EUR/USD is trading within a kind of descending triangle. The key support is at $1.2830. A break below will make the pair test $1.2790. However, sellers lack momentum for a decisive move lower. The outlook will remain bearish as long as the pair’s trading below $1.2930. Comments of Mario Draghi were mildly bearish. Tomorrow watch the release of PMI indicators in the euro area.

GBP/USD returned to the $1.6350 area after hitting $1.6290 in the Asian trade. Market players remain puzzled: which direction the cable is about to choose? The pair remains well supported at $1.6275/6300 – this is the ascending trend line. However, the price has to recover above $1.6400 to confirm the bullish power. We’ll stay out of the market until the medium-term trend won’t be defined. Great Britain will release public sector net borrowing (public deficit is expected) and mortgage approvals on Tuesday.

USD/JPY consolidates slightly below the Friday’s 6-year high of 109.45, daily support lies at 108.60. Note that Tuesday is a bank holiday in Japan. Both Japanese and US economic calendars for the coming week are relatively light, so the pair will be driven mostly by the technical factors. Corrective selling could easily bring the price down to the 108.50/00 area. Next support lies at 107.30 and 106.80. We maintain a strategy of buying the pair on dips with a medium term target of 110.00 yen.

AUD/USD didn’t stay in the sideways range for long. The pair breached support and fell to 6-month minimums in the $0.8864 area. From the technical point of view, Aussie reached 76.4% Fibo of the advance from January low to July high and there’s divergence at MACD and RSI at H4. Attention is now focused on China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for Sep. (consensus forecast sees a decline in the index). Reading worse than expected could bring the pair to $0.8820. However, the pair’s oversold and a better reading will cause a correction. Resistance is at $0.8930. We’ll regard any rallies as a chance to enter shorts.

[video]

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2407

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 23: MARKET VIDEO REVIEW

Dollar index holds below a 4-year peak set on Monday. Asian shares rose on Tuesday on good news from China. Euro steady above a 14-month low.

• AUD up to $0.8920: China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.5 vs. 50.2.
• AUD: Moody’s: positive about Australian financial and economic strength
• EUR at $1.2850 ahead of PMIs
• USD: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said that a sharply stronger dollar could hamper Federal Reserve efforts to spur growth and lift inflation.
• USD: FOMC member Kocherlakota is also dovish, wants higher inflation.
• USD: bombing attacks against Islamic State targets in Syria

[video]

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1759

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 23: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2860, $1.2870, $1.2900 (large), $1.2950 (large), $1.2950 (large), $1.2980, $1.3000 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6220 (large), $1.6350, $1.6400 (large), $1.6425;

USD/JPY: 107.10, 107.20, 108.00, 108.30, 108.50;

USD/CHF: 0.9250, 0.9330/35 (large), 0.9370, 0.9450;

AUD/USD: $0.8800 (large), $0.8900 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0850 (large), 1.0900 (large), 1.0940/50, 1.1000 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8200 (large), $0.8320 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1760

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Sep. 24

By E.Belugina and K.Iukhtenko

EUR/USD corrected up to $1.2900. Tomorrow watch German Ifo business climate data at 08:00 GMT. So far data from Germany have been discouraging, and we have little reason to expect a bullish release this time. If the reading is significantly lower, euro will fall to $1.2810. The next resistance is at $1.2930 and if this level is broken in case of the positive news, euro will probably rise to $1.3000 – a place to enter short positions.

GBP/USD rose to the upper border of the Tuesday’s $1.6300/6400 range in the early US trade. Daily close above this mark would provoke further growth with a target of $1.6520/30. This is the 55-week moving average that capped the post-referendum rally. Support is seen in the $1.6300/6275 area.

USD/JPY bounced from the 108.20 support. This is the lower boundary of the September ascending channel. We review the current dips as a good buying opportunity with a target of 110 yen and a stop at 107.60.

AUD/USD spiked up on Tuesday: initially Aussie rose to $0.8930 on good data from China, but then reversed down on concerns about Australian economy and geopolitical tensions. The pair recoiled down from resistance line and may test $0.8835 on the downside. Resistance is at $0.8930 and $0.8985. The pair may be moved by the RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 GMT).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2426

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 24: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

• EUR/USD is at $1.2850 ahead of German Ifo business climate (08:00 GMT).
• USD: New Home Sales (14:00 GMT).
• Japanese PM Abe: watching impact of weak JPY on regional economies; considering a supplementary budget for 2014
• USD/JPY down to 108.50
• GBP/USD hovers above $1.6400
• AUD: CB leading index of Australia advanced 0.5% in July vs. 0.2% in the previous month.
• AUD: in its Financial Stability Review the RBA cautioned that the soaring housing prices could pose risks to the economy.
• Fonterra cut cuts forecast payout to farmers for current season due to global uncertainty
• NZ August trade deficit less than expected (472M vs. 1125M exp.)
• NZD/USD found support at $0.8030

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1765

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 24: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2900 1.1915 1.2950 1.3120 1.3225 1.3250 (large);

GBP/USD: 1.6250 1.6300 1.6400;

USD/JPY: 107.00 (large), 107.45;

USD/CHF: 0.9150 0.9335;

AUD/USD: 0.8900 0.9000 0.9010 0.9020 0.9100;

USD/CAD: 1.0955 1.1000 1.1050.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1766

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Sep. 25

By Elizaveta Belugina & Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD hit our target at $1.2790 (61.8% Fibo of the 2012-2014 advance). Euro was hit by weaker German Ifo index and the data leaked by French TV that the number of people looking for work fell by 11.1K in August, while analysts expected an increase by 16.5K. A close at/below this level will be a bearish sign. From the technical point the attention should be now at $1.2750. Resistance is at $1.2830, $1.2860 and $1.2900. Tomorrow watch US durable goods data at 12:30 GMT.

Bullish impulse was not strong enough: GBP/USD retraced down from the $1.6400 resistance. The pair broke the support of a short-term triangle (H1) to the downside. Cable met some buying interest around the $1.6350 mark. Break lower will open the way to the $1.63000/6275 area. Great Britain will release CBI realized sales at 12:00 GMT on Thursday. The BOE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech later in the day, at 14:20 GMT.

USD/JPY dips were bought around 108.40. On the daily chart the price is forming to long-shadowed candles that signal a forthcoming bullish reversal. The pair gains ground in the early US trade, testing this week’s resistance to the upside. Next bullish targets lie at 109.00 and 109.45.

AUD/USD once again recoiled down from resistance. Despite the fact that Aussie is oversold on the daily chart, traders keep selling Aussie on rallies. Tomorrow during the Asian session the pair will be moved by the speech of the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens (02:30 GMT) – the outcome of this event is difficult to predict, but the base scenario is AUD-negative. On the downside we target $0.8810. On the upside strong resistance is at $0.8930.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2439

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 25: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

USD: high on the expectations that the Fed will raise interest rate next year as the US data improves.

NZDfell below $0.80: RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler called the NZD level unjustified, invoking one of the central bank’s criteria for intervention.

AUD: the RBA Governor Stevens said that the RBA is open to using macro prudential tools (this will decrease the pressure on the central bank to raise rates in order to limit house price growth).

EUR at new lows: Draghi repeated that the ECB would keep its monetary policy loose for an extended period.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1769

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 25: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2800 (large), $1.2850 (large), $1.2860 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6300 (large), $1.6395/1.6400 (large), $1.6450 (large), $1.6500;

USD/JPY: 108.80 (large), 109.25 (large), 109.50 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1000 (large), 1.1060 (large), 1.1100, 1.1200 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8850, $0.8960, $0.9140;

NZD/USD: $0.8100, $0.8155, $0.8200;

EUR/GBP: 0.7870, 0.7935, 0.7960, 0.7965.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1770

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Sep. 26

According to the data released on Thursday, US durable goods orders sharply declined. However, the decline was in line with expectations and the core reading was positive, so the greenback wasn’t strongly affected by the news. On Friday America will release revised GDP and consumer sentiment data – forecasts are positive.

Still USD/JPY was capped around 109.35 and is trading directly at the support line of the uptrend channel (108.85) which looks vulnerable. The pair may correct down to 108.25.

EUR/USD breached 2013 lows at $1.2750. The level of $1.2500 looks like the reasonable level for this pair. GfK German Consumer Climate is due tomorrow at 06:00 GMT. On the downside support is now at $1.2660. A close in the $1.2750 area could give the euro a lift to resistance at $1.2830.

GBP/USD recovered from the lows in the $1.6280 area above $1.6300 as the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney sounded rather favorable about the first rate hike in the UK which is expected in Q1, 2015. Still we are bearish as long as the pair stays below $1.6370. Next resistance is at $1.6460. Below $1.6280 we’ll target $1.6165.

EUR/GBP survived a selloff and is testing support line from 2008 in the 0.7790 area. The next support is at 0.7750.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2452

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 26: MARKET OVERVIEW

USD/JPY pared earlier losses and rose back to 109.00 on Friday after Japan’s welfare minister said reforms for the country’s giant pension fund would continue as planned, bolstering speculation it’s moving closer to boosting overseas asset purchases (JPY-negative). Japanese inflation figures came out lower (JPY-negative).

NZD/USD continued declining and hit a new one-year low in the $0.7890 area as the market is still under the impact of the RBNZ comments that kiwi dollar is at unsustainable and at unjustified levels. The pair breached key support levels and the downtrend channel and may be subject to more declines.

AUD/USD slid to $0.8750. Aussie’s under pressure as the RBA is expected to fight the housing price bubble without raising interest rates. Resistance is at $0.8830, support is at $0.8660.

EUR/USD is little changed at $1.2745. The market is waiting for the release of German Gfk consumer confidence and import prices at 06:00 GMT. Revised US GDP data is expected at 12:30 GMT.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1772

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 29: FOREX NEWS

USD: Strong on better GDP data (4.6% annualized growth in Q2).

CFTC: Speculators increased USD bets.

NZD: RBNZ confirmed an intervention admitting it sold 521 million NZD in August. There's the risk of more interventions in future.

NZD: Prime Minister John Key said that 65 cents is a ‘just right’ level for kiwi.

EUR: Under pressure ahead the German CPI release later today (time is not specified) and the ECB’s meeting on Thursday.

China: Lower industrial profits.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1773

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 29: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2750 (large), $1.2800, $1.2950 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6250, $1.6300, $1.6325, $1.6450;

USD/JPY: 108.30, 109.00 (large), 109.25/30, 110.00 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9000 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1075 (large), 1.1105 (large), 1.1125, 1.1200 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1774