Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 14

The European currency started the week in a positive mode with EUR/USD recovering from $1.2600 to $1.2700. The next question is whether this recovery will be long-lived. Note that Germany is due to release ZEW economic sentiment index at 09:00 GMT tomorrow, and a decline from 6.9 to 0.2 is expected. What’s more, industrial production is expected to plummet by 1.5%. This is the reason why we recommend selling EUR/USD on rallies. The pair is expected to retest the $1.2500 support to the downside in the nearest future

GBP/USD has also recovered some ground on Monday, but the buying interest remains shy. The pair fails to overcome the $1.6100 resistance for now. The overall trend for the cable also remains bearish and could be accelerated by the inflation data releases on Tuesday (8:30 GMT). CPI index is expected to slow to 1.4% y/y (the lowest level since the year 2009). Next support is seen at $1.6000 and $1.5950. However, the sellers should beware the labor data on Thursday: forecasts are upbeat.

AUD/USD keeps on consolidating above the last week’s $0.8640 low with the upside capped at $0.8900 for now. On Tuesday Australia is scheduled to release NAB business confidence and business conditions data for September (00:30 GMT). The figures are expected to show economic resilience.

USD/JPY opened the week with a bearish gap and touched the new monthly lows around 107 yen. We maintain a short position on the pair targeting 106.00 and 105.60. Major resistance is now seen at 107.50.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2609

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 14: MARKET REVIEW

Risk sentiment: traders are concerned as global equities decline. S&P500 slid to 5-month low.

EUR/USD: fell from $1.2767 to support at $1.2715 ahead of the European data release at 09:00 GMT (negative forecasts).

GBP/USD: awaits inflation data at 8:30 GMT, currently sits at $1.6070.

AUD/USD: rose testing levels above $0.88 as the People’s Bank of China cut its 14-day repo rate, again spurring hopes of more broad-based easing + iron ore prices stabilized a bit.

NZD/USD: pushed a little higher, capped at $0.7900.

USD/JPY: recovered from 106.70 to 107.00. Japanese PPI: 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1822

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 14: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), 1.2625 (large), 1.2650 (large), 1.2700 (large), 1.2750 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6100 (large);

USD/JPY: 106.85/107.00 (large), 107.50 (large), 107.75 (large), 108.00 (large)

AUD/USD: $0.8780 (large), $0.8800 (large), $0.8855;

USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large) 1.1260/65 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7940 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7900, 0.7960/65 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1823

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 15

US dollar is trying to stop its correction down versus the major currencies, but to return to the confident bullish trend it needs good figures from the United States, but the forecasts for tomorrow’s releases are not very optimistic. At 12:30 GMT watch American retail sales, PPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index.

EUR/USD fell from $1.2667 to the $1.2650 area on a bunch of very negative data from the euro area. Here’s the support line connecting the lows of the 2 previous weeks, 50% of the October move and the support of the H4 Ichimoku. Above here the picture looks consolidative. The pair’s swinging up and down as both EUR and the USD are pressured by the negative factors. We still prefer selling on the upside. Resistance is at $1.2700, $1.2735 and $1.2760. Further support is at $1.2610, $1.2600 and $1.2750. Tomorrow watch the speeches of Mario Draghi at 07:00 and 14:00 GMT.

AUD/USD was limited by the 20-day MA and the $0.8800 handle. The risk sentiment is negative, but the USD lacks certainty about American economy recovery and is unable resume its confident appreciation. The pair’s in the consolidative mode. Resistance is at $1.8750, $0.8770 and $0.8800. Support is at $0.8713, $0.8690 and $0.8660. Tomorrow Aussie will be driven by Australian new motor vehicle sales (00:30 GMT) and Chinese inflation data (01:30 GMT).

The sharp decline in inflation pulled GBP/USD down to $1.5900 mark – this is a new 11-month low. CPI fell much more than expected from 1.5% to 1.2%, pulled down by reduced food and transportation prices. This is the lowest level since September 2009. Weak inflation data has taken the question of a sooner BOE rate hike off the table and paved the ground for the new lows in the cable. Labor data on Wednesday could become the only bright spot in the recent UK news flow: some improvement is projected. However, the upside will likely remain limited by the $1.6200 mark. Next support is seen at $1.5850 and $1.5720.

USD/JPY hit a new 1-month low of 106.70 – this is 38.2% Fibonacci from the July-September rally. Safe-haven demand might remain elevated in the coming days. Downbeat US retail sales (forecast – negative) could increase the selling pressure on the market. The pair will likely hit our bearish target of 105.60 in the coming days, so it’s still not too late to jump onto the bearish train. Resistance lies at 107.20, 107.50 and 107.90.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2619

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 15: MARKET REVIEW

Demand for riskier assets remains limited amid lower growth forecasts globally, especially in Europe.

EUR/USD: edged down ahead of Mario Draghi’s speeches at 07:00 and 18:00 GMT.

GBP/USD: new 11-month low of 1.5870, awaits labor market data at 8:30 GMT.

AUD tested $0.8675 on the downside, but then returned to $0.8736: better Westpac consumer confidence & new motor vehicle sales; China’s consumer inflation slowed to a level not seen since 2010 (some speculation that Chinese policymakers may need to announce further selective easing).

NZD/USD: watch the Global Dairy trade results later in the day.

USD/JPY higher at 107.20.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1824

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Oct. 15)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2605 (large), $1.2610 (large), $1.2700 (large), $1.2715 (large), $1.2735/40 (large);

USD/JPY: 106.55, 106.80, 107.00 (large), 107.20 (large), 108.10/15 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8800 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1150;

EUR/GBP: 0.7960 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1825

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 16

US dollar slumped in all major currency pairs. The market’s confidence in the outperformance of American economy was violently dashed. Retail sales in the world’s leading economy fell, while producer prices declined. It’s a serious blow for the expectations that the Fed will raise rates earlier than expected. Later today the Fed will release its report on the economic conditions – Berge book (18:00 GMT) – and this release will be closely watched as well. Tomorrow there will be more important publications in the US, forecasts are mixed. Also watch for comments from the FOMC members Plosser and Kocherlakota – one is a hawk, another is a dove.

EUR/USD spiked up approaching $1.2900, but then pulled back to $1.2800. If the pair fails to close above $1.2790, it will be a bearish sign. Mario Draghi will make another speech later today, and stronger euro is not what the ECB needs. Support is at $1.2750, $1.2700 and $1.2650. Resistance at $1.2830 guards the way up to $1.2900.

GBP/USD jumped to $1.6050, supported by the upbeat UK labor market data and the dramatic US figures. Traders remain indecisive about the further direction of the cable: on Wednesday the pair has offset the major part of its weekly losses. The price is testing the Oct. 10 low at the time of writing. All eyes are now on the bag of the US data releases on Thursday. More negative surprises could lift the price back towards the $1.6300 resistance. Support lies at $1.5950 and $1.5875.

USD/JPY plummeted to 105.10 on the US data, but has quickly recovered some ground. There are no more data releases scheduled in Japan this week, so watch the US economic news. In the current conditions we would forecast more downside to come. Next support to watch lies at 104.50. The picture remain bearish below the 109.00 mark.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2631

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 16: MARKET REVIEW

Risk sentiment: Asian shares were off session lows but still under pressure as concerns about world economic growth sent US Treasury yields down and Japanese stocks tumbling. Chinese bank lending data was much better than expected, a sign that demand for credit may be picking up, though a drop in China’s foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter suggested speculative money outflows.

EUR: Yesterday’s speech of Mario Draghi gave little hints about the ECB’s plans. Watch final CPI at 09:00 GMT (priced in).

USD: More data later today: Unemployment Claims (12:30 GMT), Industrial Production (13:15 GMT), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (14:00 GMT).

GBP/USD had a volatile US session, stays in the $1.5880/6060 range.

USD/JPY holds above 105.60 following the yesterday’s dip.

NZD/USD jumped to $0.7990 on Global Dairy Trade auction results: prices up by 1.4%. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: 58.1 vs. 57.0 expected.

Oil found some support on a weaker dollar.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1833

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Oct. 16)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2640 (large), $1.2800, $1.2900 (large);

USD/JPY: 105.75 (large), 106.50 (large), 107.00 (large), 107.55 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1200 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large), $0.8750/65 (large), $0.8800 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7750 (large), $0.8135/45 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7980, 0.8010, 0.8060, 0.8150 (large);

EUR/JPY: 134.50 (large), 136.50 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1834

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 17

EUR/USD spiked down towards $1.2700, but then recovered to $1.2750 area. This time data from the US showed solid growth. The bearish pressure will lift only if the pair rises above $1.2790 (Oct. 9 high). Note that the market is still in doubts about the American economy and the Fed’s policy. The odds are that euro once again tests $1.2700 and $1.2685/60. We’ll consider selling on recoveries to $1.2790. Tomorrow watch the German Bundesbank President Weidmann speech and the US figures, as well as Yellen’s speech.

GBP/USD is still seeking a direction: the price hit a new daily low at 1.5940, but recovered back towards 1.6000 rather quickly. The price could jump towards 1.6150 on the new dovish signals from US, but the medium term picture still remains bearish. Support lies at 1.5950, 1.5900 and 1.5870. There are no releases in Britain scheduled for tomorrow. Next week will be much more eventful in the UK, so we’ll be waiting for clearer signals.

USD/JPY recovered towards the 106.00 mark on Wednesday following the yesterday’s dip to 105.10. However, in the current conditions we expect the upside to be capped by 106.80. The next bearish target lies at 104.50.

AUD/USD corrected down to the lower border of the channel in the area of $0.8685, and is trying to recover. There will be no news in Australia, so this time the pair’s recovery may be limited. Watch for resistance at $0.8770, $0.8815 and $0.8850. Support is at $0.8700 and $0.8675.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2640

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 16: MARKET REVIEW

[video]

Risk sentiment: Asian shares were off session lows but still under pressure as concerns about world economic growth sent US Treasury yields down and Japanese stocks tumbling. Chinese bank lending data was much better than expected, a sign that demand for credit may be picking up, though a drop in China’s foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter suggested speculative money outflows.

EUR: Yesterday’s speech of Mario Draghi gave little hints about the ECB’s plans. Watch final CPI at 09:00 GMT (priced in).

USD: More data later today: Unemployment Claims (12:30 GMT), Industrial Production (13:15 GMT), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (14:00 GMT).

GBP/USD had a volatile US session, stays in the $1.5880/6060 range.

USD/JPY holds above 105.60 following the yesterday’s dip.

NZD/USD jumped to $0.7990 on Global Dairy Trade auction results: prices up by 1.4%. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: 58.1 vs. 57.0 expected.

Oil found some support on a weaker dollar.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1833

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Oct. 16)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2640 (large), $1.2800, $1.2900 (large);

USD/JPY: 105.75 (large), 106.50 (large), 107.00 (large), 107.55 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1200 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large), $0.8750/65 (large), $0.8800 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7750 (large), $0.8135/45 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7980, 0.8010, 0.8060, 0.8150 (large);

EUR/JPY: 134.50 (large), 136.50 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1834

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 20: MARKET REVIEW

Pessimism over the economy was tempered and risk sentiment improved.

USD: San Francisco Fed President Williams and Boston President Eric Rosengren said that the Fed should end QE as planned at this month.

EUR/USD: on the upside in the area of $1.2760, but below last week’s high at $1.2886.

GBP/USD trades unchanged at $1.6100.

USD/JPY gapped higher at 107.20, Nikkei up as GPIF will lift ratio of domestic stocks to about 25%.

AUD/USD up to $0.8787: China announced its intention to inject $33B of 3-month loans into banks.

NZD/USD up by 40 pips to $0.7960.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1835

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 20: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2550 (large), $1.2580, $1.2680 (large), $1.2700, $1.2725 (large), $1.2750/55 (large), $1.2775 (large), $1.2790/1.2800 (large), $1.2850 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6000 (large), $1.6190/1.6200 (large);

USD/JPY: 105.50 (large), 106.25 (large), 106.75 (large), 107.20 (large), 107.50 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1135, 1.1260, 1.1280;

AUD/USD: $0.8600 (large), $0.8700, $0.8800 (large), $0.8850 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7900, $0.7935, $0.7950 (large), $0.8000 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7915, 0.8040;

EUR/JPY: 136.00 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1836

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 21

EUR/USD lacked momentum on Monday. Resistance area is at $1.2830/50. Support is at $1.2730, $1.2700 and $1.2680. Longs from $1.2700 are possible, though cautious. Shorts are advised above $1.2900. No data from the euro area tomorrow, only the evening existing home sales in the US, so risk sentiment will matter. The general mood seems to be EUR-negative.

GBP/USD edged above the $1.6100 mark on Monday, hitting fresh 10-day highs as we write. Great Britain is scheduled to release public sector net borrowing data on Tuesday – budget deficit is projected to contract. The data could render more support for the currency. Break above $1.6150 would open the way towards the next short-term targets at $1.6200 and $1.6225. We still expect the $1.6225 mark to cap the upside – this is the long-term trend resistance line and the Oct. 9 high.

USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, but failed to sustain gains and fell back below the 107 mark. The move confirms that the 107.50 area remains strongly resistive for now. It makes sense to reenter shorts on a break below 106.60 with an initial target of 105.00 yen.

AUD/USD is trading in a broad sideways trend with support at $0.8750, $0.8725 and $0.8685. Resistance is at $0.8815/20, $0.8860 and $0.8900. Selling around the latter is a good strategy. Upcoming data releases should bring more volatility: watch the RBA meeting minutes release and Chinese data early on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2664

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 21: MARKET REVIEW

Risk sentiment still hasn’t sustainably improved. Japanese Nikkei declined.

AUD/USD: edged up on better than expected China’s Q3 GDP growth (7.3% vs. 7.2%), though the reading came lower than in the previous quarter. Chinese industrial production rose by 8.0% vs. 7.5% expected. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

EUR/USD edged up to $1.2825.

GBP/USD edged higher to $1.6180, awaits public sector net borrowing at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY fell to 106.20 in Asia.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1837

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 21: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600/05 (large), $1.2655 (large), $1.2685 (large), $1.2700 (large), $1.2750 (large), $1.2800 (large);

USD/JPY: 107.00 (large), 107.50 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large), 1.1250;

AUD/USD: 0.8650;

NZD/USD: 0.8105 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1838

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 22

EUR/USD was rejected by resistance in the $1.2830/50 area. Support is in the $1.2730/15 zone. Tomorrow once again there won’t be important data releases in the euro area. Note though that soon the picture will become more interesting. The market will probably start worrying about the region’s PMIs due on Thursday. Another source of concerns may be the results of the bank stress tests due on Sunday. We still recommend selling on the increases up to $1.2950/3000. The support of the channel lies at $1.2700/$1.2685. The US will release inflation figures on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.

GBP/USD failed to sustain growth on Tuesday as UK public deficit came above the forecast. The upside remains limited by the $1.6180/6200 resistance area ahead of the BOE monetary minutes release on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT. We expect the dove-hawk voting to remain unchanged at 7-2. If true, the cable will likely resume the decline with an initial target of $1.6040.

USD/JPY pushed lower in Asia, but met buying interest at 106 yen. To confirm a local low at the 105 mark the markets need to break above 107.30, but the 107 figure remains a strong barrier these days. USD/JPY is a risky trade right now, so we are waiting for clearer signals. Don’t miss the Japanese trade balance on Tuesday.

On Wednesday there will be a lot of news from Canada – retail sales at 12:30 GMT and the Bank of Canada’s meeting & press conference & governor’s speech at 14:00, 15:15 and 19:30 GMT respectively. USD/CAD is at the lower edge of the rising channel. A break below 1.1200 can cause a fall to 1.1100. Divergence at the daily chart points at the possibility of a break lower if the BOC sounds less dovish.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2675

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 22: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

Risk sentiment improved, Asian shares rose.

EUR/USD: below $1.2730 ahead of the release of the euro area’s PMIs on Thursday. The ECB bought covered bonds for a second day and Reuters reported the central bank is considering corporate-debt purchases.

GBP/USD consolidates at $1.6110, capped at $1.6185. MPC meeting minutes will be published at 8:30 GMT. MPC Member Weale speaks at 19:00 GMT.

AUD/USD: returned to the levels just below $0.8800 after spiking down, Australian data showed annual consumer-price gains slowed in line with economists’ forecasts. NZD/USD holds below $0.8000.

USD/JPY bounced from 106.80 back above 107.00.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1840

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Oct. 22: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2650 (large), $1.2665 (large), $1.2675, $1.2680 (large), $1.2685, $1.2750, $1.2800 (large), $1.2840 (large);

USD/JPY: 106.10 (large), 106.15/20 (large), 107.50;

USD/CAD: 1.1200, 1.1300 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8700 (large), $0.8790/0.8800 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7980 (large)

EUR/GBP: 0.7800 (large), 0.7850;

EUR/JPY: 135.20 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1841