Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLS TESTED CLOUD’S RESISTANCE
05:15 02.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2850; resistance – 1.2910.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.2840; SL — 1.2860; TP1 — 1.2780; TP2 — 1.2750.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen under the Cloud; the market can’t breaking out the Cloud’s resistance.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bulls_tested_cloud’s_resistance_1383

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 2
06:02 02.06.2017

Today’s news headline is that Trump officially announced the withdrawal of the US from the Paris climate agreement. The President considered the deal a burden and unfair to the US and said he would welcome renegotiation with the other countries. The German, Italian and French governments all reacted immediately to Trump’s announcement putting out a joint statement saying they “take note with regret” of Trump’s decision. The UK Theresa May took some time before saying anything on this subject. Her reluctance to come down stronger on Trump may be explained by looming Brexit negotiations. She tries to distance herself from the European countries and make friends with the US. The market’s reaction was subdued. Us equities moved higher on Trump’s announcement, while oil futures dropped.

The US dollar regained its strength in the past session due to strong economic data flowing from the country. Yesterday, we got a bunch of releases out of the US. ADP private sector employment increased by 253K vs forecasted estimate of 181K. The ADP is expected to mirror the official non-farm employment data. But we must admit that the correlation is not always great but the print with 253K, 200K, 180K or even 120 K are all good for the market to think the Fed will raise its interest rate on June 14th. The US jobless claims came at 248K. This was higher than the consensus estimate, but in general it didn’t change the trend. The ISM Manufacturing employment component was also very strong.

Today’s focus will be on the US labor market report consisting of average hourly earnings, NFP and jobless rate data. It will be release at 3:30 pm MT time.

The euro moved lower to 1.1225 from 1.2569 in Tokyo morning due to widespread strengthening of the USD. The outlook is still neutral, it may change to bullish one if EUR/USD breaks 1.3000.

Sterling is still pressured by the upcoming UK general election scheduled for June 8. At the present moment, the pair is hovering around 1.2850. We will be bearish on GBP only if it slide below 1.2755 – 1.2760 levels. Today, we will receive construction PMI out of the UK.

Australian dollar slumped to 0.7395 in the Asian session. National Australia Bank posted a note on their forecast of the first quarter GDP data which is due on Wednesday 7 June. Economic partials point to a modest contraction in real GDP. Earlier this week we released CAPEX report that contained decreasing spending on plant and equipment (the essential element of the GDP gauge). In the upcoming session, we will be waiting for a further slide towards the supports at 0.7355 or lower, towards 0.7330.

USD/CAD moved a little bit higher on the session and almost hit 1.3460 level on the stronger greenback and falling oil prices. Today we release trade balance and labor productivity data out of Canada.

Brent oil futures dropped below $50.30 in the past sessions after the US President Trump announced that the US would leave the Paris Climate Accord. The might instigate the growth of the American oil industry which in turn will complicate OPEC’s production cut projections.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_2_1385

 

[riki143]

GOLD: STEP FORWARD, TWO BACKWARDS
06:30 02.06.2017

On the daily chart of gold, the exit of quotes from the triangle allowed the Bulls to return to the upward trading channel. If buyers fail to gain a foothold there and push the quotes towards the support at $1256 will tell us about their weakness and open the way towards $1240-1245. For continuation of the rally, the Bulls need to update the May high.

On the hourly chart of gold, a breakout of support at $1,260 will allow the Bears to return quotes within the borders of the triangle and activate the Shark pattern. Its targets are located near the marks of $1,250 and $ 1,245.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold:_step_forward,_two_backwards_1386

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLS REGAIN THEIR STRENGTH
06:31 02.06.2017

Recommendation: BUY 111,95 SL 111,4 TP1 113,5 TP2 114,6.

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the Bears failed to consolidate below 110.5. This tells us about their weakness. Bulls launched a counterattack and became ready to activate the Crab pattern and to implement the 5-0 pattern. But first, they need to test the resistance at 112.05.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge pattern continues. To activate this pattern, the Bulls need to update the high at point 3. The resistance is located at 111.95. If it is tested successfully it will be a signal for opening long positions.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bulls_regain_their_strength_1387

 

[riki143]

BANKS PREVIEW FOR THE NONFARM PAYROLLS
07:19 02.06.2017

Analysts from major banks offer insights on their expectation from the today’s US labor market report which is due at 3:30 pm MT time. It will be critical for the Fed’s rate June decision as its monetary policy decisions are based on the changes in employment and inflation estimates. The headlines close to the forecasted data should produce a surprise effect across the trading board. There might be extreme fluctuation if the reading results in an extreme divergence from market’s expectations.

In general, we don’t expect great moves from the report; the employment has been extremely healthy in the past months (steadily growing) and it seems that it is not a great concern of the Fed’s officials anymore. Wages are becoming more important in the US labor market report as they have a strong correlation with inflation figures.

The upcoming release should bring around 181K new jobs which is a quite decent figure, sufficient for the market to think of rate hike at the Fed’s June meeting. The jobless rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while monthly wages should disappoint markets with their soft print. If it is the case, the USD will be hurt.

Yesterday we release a strong ADP jobs report which has some correlation with official data. So, the US dollar rally appears to have already discounted an upbeat NFP print. it means that positive payrolls could even trigger ‘Sell the fact’ trading in the USD.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/banks_preview_for_the_nonfarm_payrolls_1389

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "PENNANT"
08:07 02.06.2017

Bulls faced resistance at 1.1249, so the price is consolidating. Also, we've got a "Double Top" pattern, which means bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1204 - 1.1171 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307.

We've got a "Double Top", which has been confirmed. Also, we've got a bearish "Pennant" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will have an option to test resistance at 1.1267 - 1.1278.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_"pennant"_1390

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: MOVING AVERAGES ACTING AS SUPPORT
08:12 02.06.2017

The price is consolidating along the Moving Averages. Considering the double pullback from resistance at 1.2913, bears are likely going to test the closest support at 1.2843 - 1.2816. However, if we have a pullback from this area, we should keep in mind the next resistance at 1.2913 - 1.2945 as the next bullish target.

The 55 & 34 Moving Averages are acting as support. If these lines turn out to be broken, bears are likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.2848 - 1.2839. At the same time, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will have a chance to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_moving_averages_acting_as_support_1391

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 5-9
13:09 02.06.2017

Sterling was really volatile in the course of the past week as we approach the general election on 8 June. The recent polls indicated that Theresa May’s lead has narrowed. This made the pound to lose its ground in the beginning of the week. The UK economic fundamentals helped GBP to regain in strength as Thursday’s Manufacturing PMI indicated industry expansion, and Friday’s Construction PMI spiked to 17-month high in May. On Friday, YouGov election poll posted another soggy result for Theresa May’s party: it lacks of 13 seats of an overall majority. The pound tumbled below 1.2850.

Next week, ahead of the UK general election, GBP will continue experiencing some volatile moves. On the economic data front, receive services PMI will be released on Monday, Halifax house price index and Britain’s manufacturing production figures will be released on Wednesday and Friday accordingly. On June 8, the UK general elections will be held. On the same day, in the US, the former FBI director Comey will testify before the Senate intelligence committee on whether Donald Trump asked him to drop investigations into ties between US President’s former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, and Russian entities. Once this is confirmed, the US dollar will likely suffer.

At the present moment, the GBP/USD is neutral. An immediate support can be found at 1.2840. A break below 1.2800 will result in restoration of the downtrend. Then, the quotes may decline down to 1.2760. The key resistances are located at 1.2920, 1.3000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_june_5_9__1394

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 5 - 9
13:39 02.06.2017

EUR/USD currency pair was trading in a horizontal band during the past week as investors await the European Central bank’s meeting on June 8. ECB policymakers are set to strike a cautious tone about future tightening of monetary policy because of doubt around inflation. Preliminary data released on Wednesday fell short of market expectations having posted 1.4% in May which is well below the bank’s 2% target. The ECB president Mario Draghi said on Tuesday that a massive monetary policy stimulus is still needed to fight with weak inflation figures. On Friday, EUR/USD regained its strength following a bit disappointing US labor market report. The nonfarm payrolls revised to 138K from expected 182K. Wage growth was mediocre, while the jobless rate fell a bit lower to 4.3%. in general, the report wasn’t so bad. It shouldn’t prevent Fed from raising rate at its June meeting.

Apart from the ECB meeting, we will receive the Eurozone countries’ PMIs and industrial production figures on Monday and Friday respectively. Political turmoil in the US seems to come back to life next week as the former FBI director Comey is scheduled to testify in an open and closed session on June 8 before the Senate intelligence committee which is currently investigating into possible collusion between Russian entities and Trump’s election campaign.

At the present moment, the pair is trading at 1.1265. The undertone for the single currency is still positive, but only a clear break of 1.3000 will indicate that EUR/USD has entered into bullish phase. The key supports are located at 1.1205, and at 1.1170.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_outlook_for_june_5___9_1395

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 0.7130
16:56 02.06.2017

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7130
Next buy target - 0.7200
NZD/USD today broke sharply above the resistance level 0.7130, which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.7130 was preceded by the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier intermediate impulse wave (C) from the start of February – which accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3). NZD/USD is expected to rise in the active impulse waves (3) and Ⓒ in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7200.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd_reached_buy_target_0.7130_1397

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF REACHED SELL TARGET 0.9670
16:58 02.06.2017

USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9670
Next sell target - 0.9550
USD/CHF continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (v) – which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.8900, 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from the middle of May and the former support trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from March (acting as resistance now after it was broken).

Having recently broken below the support level 0.9670 (which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) - USD/CHF is expected to fall toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9550 (low of the previous ABC correction ④ from November of 2016).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf_reached_sell_target_0.9670_1398

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE TESTING CLOUD’S RESISTANCE AGAIN
05:14 05.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7440; resistance – 0.7470.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7420; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7370; TP2 — 0.7340.
Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are returned to the Cloud and breakout Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_testing_cloud’s_resistance_again_1404

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR GOING TO NEW LOWS
05:16 05.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 110.15; resistance – 110.90.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 110.90; SL — 111.10; TP1 — 110.20; TP2 — 119.60.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen will make a new dead cross; the prices are bounced from Senkou Span A and made the new lows for last two weeks.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_going_to_new_lows_1405

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 5
05:46 05.06.2017

The weekend terrorist attack in London was the main cause of price action in the early hours of the Asian session. The attacker rammed a van into pedestrians on London Bridge and stabbed passersby. The market reaction was subdued with just a small drop for GBP as dealers became more and more desensitized to the shocks knowing that whatever the effect they produce, the prices will eventually stabilize. Prime minister Theresa May Thursday’s general election will go ahead. Election polls are still narrowing significantly, with the recent print from Survation poll indicating May’s lead cut to one point over her Labour counterparts. But the poll results might be delusive; despite the growing support for Labour party in the big cities, the countryside people are still likely to vote for Conservatives.

GBP/USD dropped just slightly after another terrorist atrocity to 1.2850 from Friday’s high at 1.2920. From here, the pair will likely trade steadily within the range of 1.2800 – 1.3015.

The great move was noticed on the Brent oil futures chart. Prices surged after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain cut their ties with Qatar, accusing the Gulf Arab state of supporting such Islamist fractions as the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, and al-Qaeda. Qatar is not only a large oil supplier, it is also a greatest Arab supplier of liquefied natural gas and seller of condensate. The Brent futures are currently trading at $50.67 from Friday’s low at $48.95.

The US dollar regained its strength on Monday. It is higher against the yen. It seems the USD managed to recover disappointing labor market report out of the US. USD/JPY is now near 111.10. The current outlook is neutral if bears break 110.00 support. On the upside, there is a solid resistance at 111.25. Today, traders should be focused on the US non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders.

EUR/USD was trading lower at 1.2225 from Friday’s high at 1.2580 in the Asian session. In the short-term. There is a strong resistance at 1.3000, but it will unlikely be hit this week as market anticipate a less dovish message from ECB which is due on Thursday.

AUD/USD ticked higher in Tokyo morning due to the better than expected company operating profits and upbeat Caixin services PMI released from China. AUD/USD is trading above 0.7455. It seems that it is caught in a broad 0.7380 – 0.7490 consolidation range. We don’t anticipate greater moves from Aussie since the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely stay on hold and deliver a neutral statement tomorrow.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_5__1408

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE HAD A SLIDE ON THE WOLFE WAVES
06:18 05.06.2017

Recommendation: BUY 0,744 SL 0,7385 TP 0,755.

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the Bears failed to break an important support at 0.738; it was a signal of their weakness. Quotes left the medium-term downward trading channel and returned to the short-term ascending one. As a result, the risks for the realization of the Gartley pattern have increased. The target 78.6% of the Gartley pattern is located near the 0.755 mark.




On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the Wolfe Waves pattern has been formed. Its targets can be found above the 0.75 mark. You may use rebounds from important supports at 0.744 and 0.7422 as new entry points for opening long positions.
[IMG]

More:
[URL=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_had_a_slide_on_the_wolfe_waves_1410]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_had_a_slide_on_the_wolfe_waves_1410[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: BEARS ARE PREPARING FOR THE ATTACK
06:19 05.06.2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, the realization of the Wolfe Waves pattern continues. The next move would be the return of quotes within the borders of the downward trading channel. For this to happen, the Bears need to break the support at 1.3435.



On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the breakout of the diagonal support in the form of the lower border of the upward trading channel will be a signal for the Bears' attack. There is a chance for quotes reaching the convergence zone at 1.344 - 1.3455. Within these levels, there is a target 88.6% of the Shark pattern. If support at 1.344 is broken, there will be a slide towards lower levels.

[IMG]



More:
[URL=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_bears_are_preparing_for_the_attack_1411]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_bears_are_preparing_for_the_attack_1411[/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "PENNANT" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
09:02 05.06.2017

The price faced resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307, so the market is consolidating. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.1325 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards support at 1.1267 - 1.1249.

There's a "Pennant" pattern, so bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307 in the coming hours. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will have a chance to test the next support at 1.1278 - 1.1267.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"pennant"_pushing_price_higher_1414

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLISH "TRIANGLE"
09:06 05.06.2017

The price is consolidating between resistance at 1.2913 and the 34 Moving Average. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2913 - 1.2945, which could be a departure point for another decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.2887 - 1.2865.

We've got a bullish "Triangle", so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2935 - 1.2952 as an intraday target. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this area arrives afterwards, we could have a decline towards the 34 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bullish_"triangle"_1415

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "WINDOW" ACTED AS RESISTANCE
12:57 05.06.2017

The price reached the upper "Window", which acted as resistance, so we've got a bearish "Tweezers" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support level in the short term. However, if any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

We've got a bullish "Hammer", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, we could have a local upward correction, but bears are likely going to deliver a new local low later on.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"window"_acted_as_resistance_1418

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARISH "TOWER"
13:00 05.06.2017

There's a bearish "Tower" on the 144 Moving Average. However, we've got a pullback from a quite strong support level, so the middle of the last black candle is likely going to act as resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, the lower "Window" is going to be the next bearish target.

We've got a bullish "High Wave", but the last bearish "Shooting Star" has been confirmed strongly, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support in the coming hours. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this level, there'll be a green light for another bullish rally.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bearish_"tower"_1419