Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Gertrude]

Gold near major resistance

Gold continues its upper move after hitting the upper high at $1,182. It holds the June's low and close above the uneconomical level $1,200, which is a bull factor. In the weekly and daily charts, oscillators indicate positive divergence, hourly chart gives an overbought sign. We are still on the bearish note for the level of $1,170 and even lower.
In the hourly chart, oscillators show an overbought sign and hold above the 21 EMA at $1,232. As per daily charts, some more up move steam left before big leg down.
Resistance $1,245 $1,252 $1,268
Support $1,232 $1,220
Price closes above $1,269 on a daily basis can make further bullishness. We recommend sell on rallies until prices meet at the level of $1,100.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Little Changed Following German Retail Sales

After the release of German retail sales for November at 2:00 am ET Tuesday, the euro changed little against other major currencies.
The euro was trading at 1.3620 against the greenback, 142.22 against the yen, 0.8305 against the pound and 1.2342 against the franc around 2:03 am ET.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 8, 2014

Overview:
The EUR/USD pair has been trading in a tight sideway range since January 6, 2013 and the price has also set below the weekly resistance 1 at the level of 1.3743, moreover the price has already formed double bottom at the 1.3571 level. Accordingly, the market will move between 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels (1.3743) and 00% of Fibonacci retracement at the price of 1.3571. In particular, it should noted that at the level of 1.3543 which represents the support, we can expect explosive breakout and it is likely that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above double bottom at the level of 1.3543 with a first target at 1.3663 in order to test the weekly pivot point and it will climb towards 1.3728. However, if the the price of the EUR/USD pair breaks 1.3543 and closes below it, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.3543 then the best location to set stop loss should be at the 1.3545 price.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis Of GBP/CHF for January 09, 2014

Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. The currency pair has stopped us out at 1.4950 in the past session. As seen in the weekly chart here, a former resistance at 1.5000 has also been broken. It is recommended to remain flat for now. The 1.5150 level is into focus now.
2. The next resistance is at the 1.5150 level, while support is just below 1.4900, followed by 1.4800 and lower.
3. The structure reveals that GBP/CHF is on its way towards at least 1.5150 for now. A bearish reaction there could possibly reverse the trend. Trading recommendations:
Flat for now.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Daily analysis of USD/CHF for January 10, 2014

Overview:
According to the previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has still been movin between the levels of 0.9115 and 0.9003. In the same away, the range of the pair was around 60 pips today. Volatility was only 54,56; therefore, the market indicates lower volatility, so we expect medium volatility on January 10, 2013, because, as it is known, the market is low volatile if the last day had not huge volatility. Additionally, the level of 0.9115 has set below 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels and it has formed a strong resistance for that the key level of 0.9115 is represented for downtrend to confirm the bearish market. Equally important, the market was so stable and the trend was also too clear (downward). In consequence, sell deals are recommended below the 0.9115 level with targets at 0.9065 in order to test the minor support, and it will resume towards 0.9010 to attempt testing the support of the week at the 0.9003 level.
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[IFX Gertrude]

Weekly technical levels for GBP/USD for January 13-17, 2014

http://forex-images.instaforex.com/userfiles/20140107/1389134017_eurusdh1.png[/IMG]
Overview:
As it is known, historic rates should be used to determine future prices. According to the previous events of the last week, the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6405 and 1.6550 for five days. It should be also noticed that the price has closed at the level of 1.6482. Expect a move to resistance 1 or back towards the weekly pivot point. Therefore, buy in the short period at the 1.6464 level with the first target of 1.6516 in order to test the last double top; futhermore, it might resume towards 1.6550. Nevertheless, it must beware because sometimes the market seems that it doesn't follow our forecast. So for getting out spank from the market before losing your profit, it will be very meaningful to set stop loss below the weekly support at 1.6360.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of Gold for January 14, 2014.

Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. Gold rallied through the $1,255.00 levels yesterday and a push today could see $1,267.00/70.00 before pullback. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to enter on a dip.
2. Immediate resistance is at $1,267.00, while supports are spread through $1,220.00, followed by $1,210.00 (the fibonacci 0.618 support), $1,182.00 and lower.
3. The structure reveals that the rally from $1,182.00 has unfolded in 5 waves (a push towards $1,267.00/70.00 is still possible) till now. A 3 wave correction can be expected now towards $1,210.00-$1,206.00 levels before rally continues.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Look to buy lower on dips.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2014

Overview:
The GBP/USD pair will probably be trapped between 1.6373 and 1.6516 consequently; it is of the wisdom to be careful at this range area of 143 pips. In particular, it will be too meaningful to wait for a period of tight sideway range market before investing. Equally important, the level of 1.6373 formed a strong support, as well as this price is very conformity with 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement levels. Thereupon, it is likely that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above the 0.6373 level with the first target of 1.6445 in order to retest the weekly pivot point and it will climb towards the price of 1.6516 for forming double top. Additionally, it should also be noted that the weekly resistance 1 for January 15-17, 2013 is set at 1.6553. However, If the the pair does not break this resistance, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5660, then the level will act really as strong resistance, for that it will a good sign to sell below 1.6553 with the first target of 1.5503 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 1.6466 tomorrow.
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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 16, 2014

Overview:
The USD/CHF pair has not shown signs of a break of the highest level of 0.9126, but it has opened today above the weekly support at the level of 0.9050; therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 0.9050 with the first target of 0.9115 and resume to 0.9145 in order to form a new double top on January 16, 2013. However, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9050, then the market will lead to further decline to 0.9004 (00% Fibonacci retracement levels) for testing the double bottom of the last week, as well as it will be able to indicate the correction movement at this level. Meanwhile, in the H1 chart represents a strong support at the first weekly support at 0.8977, besides the channel emerging of RSI has still positive in the daily frame, for that the RSI calls for a new upleg at this level. Moreover it should be noted a point of view that the MA(100) would be more of a confirmation for uptrend but in a short term period.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 17, 2014

Overview: T
he resistance of the GBP/USD pair had been already set at the level of 1.6445 (the weekly pivot point on January 17, 2013) and a minor resistance has set at the 1.6373 level. Therefore, according to the previous events, the price has still been moving between 0.6370 and 0.6285, then it should be noted that the range today will be around 110 pips. Consequently, the trend in the 1H time frame will be calling for a bearish market at the level of 1.6400. Hence, below 1.6400 look for further downside move with targets at 1.6330, if it will be able to break the minor support for today at 1.6333, so the price will continue towards 1.6265 today in order to test the weekly support. Notwithstanding, it should be always beware to set a stop loss, thus the best location to set the stop loss in this case should be above the weekly pivot point.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 20, 2014

Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. The currency pair is just shy of 1.5020 as seen here. Also please note that the back side of the trend line is being tested as well. It is recommended to hold short positions for now with risk at 1.5020.
2. Resistance is fixed at the 1.5020 level, while support is spread through 1.4720/30 (intermediary), followed by 1.4550, and 1.4350 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that prices are probing resistance before finally giving into bearish swing. If not lower, prices are expected to reach at least 1.4800/20. A break of this level would prove further bearish and extend towards 1.4550.
Trading recommendations:
Hold short positions and add further, stop is at 1.5030, target is open.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 22.01

The German economy grew 0.4% in the previous year and is expected to show better performance in the current year of 2014. The euro zone is showing a good signof recovery led by increase domestic demand. Strong domestic demand plays avital role in the German recovery. In the year of 2013, GDP stretched by just 0.4%compared to 2012, the worst performancesince 2009 - the lowest level for four years. In 2014, GDPis forecasted to grow by 1.2-2.0%. We can see investments by German companies going higher, which is a good sign.
In the currency front, EUR/USD is trading at the level of 1.3558.After making a new high in 2013 at the level of 1.3893 the pair went through correction. In the daily charts oscillators sign over sold indications, which lead to a pull back. But overall trend is down. The pair breaks the trend line and close below the trend line, the first sign of bearishness, prices trading below 21DEMA which adds more bearish views. Final confirmation of bearishness comes if prices close below 1.35, until pull back to resistance zones is possible.
Support- 1.3550 1.35
Resistance- 1.3620 1.365

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 23, 2014

Overview:
This week, the GBP/USD pair has an upside movement from 1.6415 to 1.6517, and today the market has opened at the price of 1.6566. Furthermore, the uptrend represents the double bottom of the channel emerging at the level of 1.6415. It is equally important that the RSI has still been positive in the daily time frame, so it calls for a new upward movement. Therefore, the price movement will be trapped between 1.6615 and 1.6466 (Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Moreover, the pair has already formed major support at the level of 1.6503. For that it should be noted that the price was set above this level a long time ago, and the market will indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.6500, with the first target at 1.6565, then if it breaks 1.655, there will be a breakout above this level with the second target at the 1.6611 price. However, the best location for placing a stop loss should be below 1.6412.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 27, 2014

Overview
In the H4 chart, the pair reversed its downward move taking an upward move due to the strong Support level of 167.75. Today as shown in the H4 chart, the pair bounced from the Support area breaking the Resistance level of 168.50, and currently it is approaching the Resistance level of 169.50 trying to break it through to continue its bullish move which means more buy-signals keeping its movement inside the bullish channel. So we should wait till the price closes above the Resistance level of 169.50 before making the decision to have a bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next Resistance level of 170.00. But closing below the Resistance level of 168.50 cancels the bullish move scenario.
Resistance and Support levels:
R3 (170.75), R2(170.00), R1(169.50), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3(167.10).


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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of the US dollar for January 28, 2014

In the US dollar front, it made a double high at the level of 80.56 and it is trading below 21DEMA that is the major bearish factor.Until it crosses it, we remain in bearish mode. After hitting a 2-months high of81.39, the dollar index sharply declined to 80.15 In the technical front, oscillators sign a bullish indications for limited downside with a higher lows pattern.If prices are above the level 80.56, next immediate resistance comes at thelevel of 80.70. Following its drop in theprevious week, the FOMC decision to further reduce its economic stimulus,accompanied with a stronger fourth-quarter GDP reading and other economic data,could set the US Dollar to start a fresh leg of up-move against other majorcurrencies.
Support: 80.15, 80.0, 79.70.
Resistance: 80.56, 80.69, 81.27.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 29, 2014

Overview:
The NZD/USD pair movement will be continued directly from the resistance at the level of 0.8390 in H1 chart (127.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). therefore, the price of the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness, following the break of the lowest level of 0.8350, hence it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.8350 in H1 chart (in the short term) with the first target of 0.8257 in order to test the pivot point and further to 0.8212 to form double bottom, then this price will act as a strong suport for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 00% of Fibonacci retracement levels. However, in case if a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the minor resistance level of 0.8317, the market will lead to increase further to 0.8375 for indicating bullish market.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Fundamental analysis of Crude for January 30, 2014

The US Fed is expected to cut its bond purchases by another $10 billion. So starting in February, it will buy $65 billion in bonds per month. Also, there are growing concerns about the impact of slower growth inChina that make the US dollar stronger. Estimates from 11 analysts surveyed showed thatUS oil inventories are projected to have risen by 2.2 million barrels onaverage in the week ended January 24, 2014. Crude oil inventories rose6.4 million barrels, thus contributing to decrease in oil prices. Technical front crude is trading above the level $97 which is a bullishfactor. Oscillators gave mixed indications resulting in limited downside.
Support- $96, $91.75
Resistance- $97.8, $99.76


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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 6, 2014

Overview:
The USD/CAD pair has already formed a strong resistance at the level of 1.1163; furthermore, the same level is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Equally important, it should be noticed that a minor support will be set at the level of 1.1025 around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart. As shown, the price of the USD/CAD pair has been trapping between 1.1030 and 1.1150; it should be also noted that the price moved higher to 1.1170 and turned lower. So, the range will be about 130 pips this week. Additionally, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for sideways trend. Consequently, the market is going to indicate bullish opportunities at the levels of 1.1025 and 1.1033; with the first target of 1.1110 and continuing towards 1.1163 in order to the resistance at the 1.1163 price. On the other hand, if the price closes below 1.1163. Hence, the price will call for a bearish market to go further towards the double bottom at 1.1060 to test it again.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 7, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and the US will release some economic data such as US-Non-Farm Employment Change, US-Unemployment Rate, US-Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 102.51.
Resistance. 2: 102.31.
Resistance. 1: 102.11.
Support. 1: 101.86.
Support. 2: 101.66.
Support. 3: 101.46.
DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.46) and resistance 3 (102.51). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of Silver for February 10, 2014.

Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. Silver remains unchanged for now. It is likely to move in a trading range between $19.00 and $20.00 for a while before breaking higher. Recommendations are to hold long positions for now, risk remains at $18.50.
2. Intermediary support is at $19.00, followed by $18.75, while resistance is at $20.50 (intermediary), $21.00 and higher.
3. The structure reveals that the metal could trade between $19.00/20.00 levels for a while before thrusting higher. $18.75/50 levels should hold well now.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at $18.50, target open.


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