Instaforex Analysis

[IFX Gertrude]

USD/JPY intraday technical levels for November 22, 2013

Today we predict the USD/JPY price movement will be with slow to moderate volatility, because during the Asian session Japan will release the BOJ Monthly Report. During the US trading sesssion, no important and significant news is due to be released, only FOMC Member George Speech and the US - JOLTS Job Openings.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3 : 100.73.

Resistance. 2 : 100.53.

Resistance. 1 : 100.33.

Support. 1 : 100.09.

Support. 2 : 100.89.

Support. 3 : 100.69.


DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (100.69) and resistance 3 (100.73). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 25, 2013

Today's Support and Resistance levels:
R3: 138.76
R2: 138.30
R1: 138.01
Current Spot: 137.76
S1: 137.33
S2: 137.02
S3: 136.60

Technical summary:
We should be in the very last part of the ending diagonal. The maximum for this final wave v will be in the 138.21-138.31 range depending on where the high of wave iii is placed. If we does see a break above 138.31, then the ending diagonal can not be the correct count as wave iii can never be the shortest wave and that would be the case here, if we does break above 138.31. However, for now we maintain the view that an ending diagonal is developing and should be close to its maximum. To confirm that wave v is in place, we need a break below 137.02 and more importantly a break below 136.02, which will confirm that wave v is in place for a decline towards at least 124.96.

Trading recommendation:
If you are long in EUR, lift your stop to 137.02. Take profit on any long position and sell EUR at 138.20 with a close stop at 138.35.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/JPY intraday technical levels for November 26, 2013

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Today during the Asian session there will be news like CSPI y/y and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes released. And in the US trading session there will be some important news like the US Building Permits and US CB Consumer Confidence released, so there is a possibilities the price action of the USD/JPY will get their volatility in a moderate way at the US market session.
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3 : 101.99.
Resistance. 2 : 101.79.
Resistance. 1 : 101.59.
Support. 1 : 101.35.
Support. 2 : 101.15.
Support. 3 : 100.95.
DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (100.95) and resistance 3 (101.99). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/CHF technical analysis for November 27, 2013

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Overview:
It should be noted that the price of the USD/CHF pair has still been trapped between 0.9030 and 0.9085. The price has been set below strong resistance at the levels of 0.9195 (0.9230: 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Additionally, it is worth noting that these levels coincide between 61.8% and 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart; thereupon, the pair has already formed strong resistance at this level of 0.9200, and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Therefore, the possibility that the Swissy will have a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9200, in consequence it will be a good sign to sell below 0.9195 with the first target of 0.9083. It is equally important that it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish trend towards 0.9025.
On the other hand, it is also worthy of note that the price at 0.9020 - 0.9027 will possibly form a strong support (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Accordingly, saturation around 1.9020 to rebound the pair is likely to occur. Furthermore, it is possible that the market is going to start showing the signs of the bullish market. Hence, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9020 with the first target of 0.9080 and continue towards 0.9173.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels for November 29, 2013

The USD/JPY seems to move in slow to moderate volatility during the Asian session but will move in a slow condition in the US market as long as there is no intervention from the "big player" during the quite US market session because many of the market participant from the US and Canada take their long holiday weekend because of the Thanksgiving Day's celebration. At the Asian market session from Japan will release some news like Manufacturing PMI, Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, and Housing Starts y/y.
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Resistance. 3 : 103.05.
Resistance. 2 : 102.85.
Resistance. 1 : 102.65.
Support. 1 : 102.40.
Support. 2 : 102.20.
Support. 3 : 102.00.
DESCRIPTION :
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.00) and resistance 3 (103.05). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY rebounds from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels for December 02, 2013

From the Asian session today, there is only one data release: Capital Spending q/y, and BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks and for the US market session open there will be a several data released: US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, Final Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI. There is probability the USD/JPY will move in a slow volatility but in a moderate way during the US market session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3 : 102.85.
Resistance. 2 : 102.65.
Resistance. 1 : 102.45.
Support. 1 : 102.20.
Support. 2 : 102.00.
Support. 3 : 101.80.

DESCRIPTION :
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.80) and resistance 3 (102.85). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 5, 2013

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Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 1.6681
R2: 1.6627
R1: 1.6592
Current spot: 1.6578
S1: 1.6535
S2: 1.6517
S3: 1.6443

Technical summary:
We have seen a clear impulsive five wave rally from the 1.6443 low to 1.6635 (a little below the ideal target of 1.6658). The correction from 1.6635 could be over with the test of 1.6527, but to confirm that, we need for minor support at 1.6535 to protect the downside for a break above 1.6591 and more importantly a break above 1.6635. As this is a minor green wave ii, which is currently developing, it can continue all the down to 1.6443, but that scenario is less likely.

Trading recommendation:
Stay long EUR and keep your stop at 1.6440. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.6591 with the same stop at 1.6440.

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[IFX Gertrude]

GBP/CHF breaks trendline support. Book profits and sell rallies again around 1.4775/1.48

http://forex-images.instaforex.com/userfiles/20131202/!!!USDJPY_02-12-2013.jpg[/IMG]
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The same 4H chart view has been presented here for continuation in setups. As discussed yesterday and expected, the pair has broken the trend line support and prices around 1.4640/30 levels. It is recommended to book profits on short positions taken earlier and prepare to sell rallies again. Immediate support from here is 1.4550, followed by 1.4500 and 1.44; while resistance is between 1.4775/1.4800 ( this region is also the back side of the support line which is now resistance and the 0.618 fibonacci resistance), followed by 1.4875 and 1.4920 respectively. Looking to sell rallies again at the confluence of trendline, fibonacci and trade signal appearance.

Trading recommendations:
Book profits on short positions taken earlier, sell again on rallies.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 10, 2013

Today's Support and Resistance levels:
R3: 1.6750
R2: 1.6688
R1: 1.6615
Current Spot: 1.6586
S1: 1.6550
S2: 1.6508
S2: 1.6470

Technical summary:
We have seen the expected rally above minor resistance at 1.6556 indicating that green wave ii ended at 1.6470 and that green wave iii is developing. In the short term we would like to see support at 1.6550 protecting the downside for a break above 1.6615 and more importantly a break above 1.6750, which will confirm that green wave iii is indeed developing for a rally towards at least 1.7239 and likely even higher. Only a break below 1.6470 will be of concern and could add considerable downside pressure.

Trading recommendation:
Stay long from 1.6520 with a stop at 1.6465. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy after a break above 1.6615 with the same stop at 1.6465.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Gold: bulls prevail

After a good rally, gold halted near the resistance zone. Yesterday, the market was prevailed by bulls. We penned a positive divergence in charts, hence it came true. Thanks to all the bull bidders and to the indicators. For today's trading session gold levels are following:
NEAR TERM - 1 278 strong resistance.
INTRA VIEW - Above 1,268 only upward moves.
Resistance 1,268, 1,278, 1,290, 1,295.
Support 1,255, 1,247, 1,240, 1,237.
A close above 1,295 brings more bullish sentiment. In case of a close below 1,237, bears take control. Important levels are 1,215, 1,210, CMP 1,257.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Gold short betting was increased

Short betting was increased in yellow metal couple of times and longs slipped. Gold lost almost 25% year to date from its 2011 peaks. Speculations increases as the Fed date comes closer. Expectations of Fed tampering of its purchasing program makes gold move southward.
Dip buying and the weakness in USD makes gold fly higher. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF were unchanged at 835.705 tonnes.
In the tech view gold is holding its June lows around 1,180. That day gold opened at 1,200 and managed to close at higher levels, but it hit a low at 1,180. For the last few days, gold managed to hold 1,210 levels and moved towards resistance levels. We can see 1,200 levels as a floor price.
Resistance: 1,268, 1,278.
Support: 1,247, 1,240, 1,233.
Close above 1,278, then the bulls dominate in the short term, until gold trades in tight zones. Cmp 1,254.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/JPY intraday technical levels for December 16, 2013

During the FOMC meeting, the market participants will be cautious about opening positions, this issue will make the market move in a ranging situation before the FOMC meeting; Japan today will release some data like Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index; and the US will only release some news such as US-Flash Manufacturing PMI, US-TIC Long-Term Purchases, US-Industrial Production m/m, so today the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility.
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3 : 103.48.
Resistance. 2 : 103.28.
Resistance. 1 : 103.08.
Support. 1 : 102.83.
Support. 2 : 102.63.
Support. 3 : 102.42.
DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.42) and resistance 3 (103.48). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Exxon yearly breakout channel

Exxon Mobil shows a good rally from the October low at 84.84. It has moved all the way to 98.8. Indicators are overbought slightly. It has broken up yearly trendline. I could expect Exxon to move much more higher to levels around 103. Monthly charts are showing bigger targets. Before an upward movement, it should make some correction and consolidation to move higher.
Support 96.6 94.5 94.2

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[IFX Gertrude]

AUD/USD analysis for December 18, 2013

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
For the last few days, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, impulsive wave 5 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured green) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European session we could observe descending 0.8957 towards the 0.8881 level and we can consider this as the end of the 1 wave (coloured green). Therefore, during the New York session, this commodity pair did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced back to 0.8927 level. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 0.8927 level and we are expecting to see more upward movements in the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 2 should retrace 50% of wave 1 we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 0.9316 (50% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 0.8880 level as stop loss.
Support and resistance
(S3) 0.8792 (S2) 0.8837 (S1) 0.8868 (PP) 0.8913 (R1) 0.8944 (R2) 0.8989 (R3) 0.9020
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long position at level 0.8950 with stop loss at 0.8880 and take profit at 0.9316 are recommended.

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[IFX Gertrude]

USD/CAD analysis for December 19, 2013

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave .iii (coloured black) of the bigger wave iii (coloured blue) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European session we could observe strong ascending movement from 1.0600 towards 1.0669 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity pair has continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached a new sessions high at 1.0718 level. At the moment the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.0722 level and we are expecting to see more upwards movements in the final (5) wave.In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 5 should retrace 61.8% of wave 4 we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 1.0797 (61.8% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.0620 level as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0540 (S2) 1.0557 (S1) 1.0582 (PP) 1.0599 (R1) 1.0624 (R2) 1.0641 (R3) 1.0666
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at 1.0700 with stop loss at 1.0600 and take profit at 1.0797 are recommended.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Intraday technical levels for USD/JPY for December 20, 2013

Today Japan will release some data like Monetary Policy Statement; BOJ Press Conference. The US will release the US-Final GDP q/q; and Fed Chairman Nomination Vote. So there is a probability that USD/JPY will move with low to moderately volatility during this day.
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3 : 104.85.
Resistance. 2 : 104.65.
Resistance. 1 : 104.44.
Support. 1 : 104.18.
Support. 2 : 103.98.
Support. 3 : 103.77.
DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (103.77) and resistance 3 (104.85). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.


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[IFX Gertrude]

GBPCHF turns from resistance between 1.47-1.4750. Hold short positions

Technical outlook and chart setups:
As expected, the currency pair has reversed from the resistance zone of 1.4700/50, producing an engulfing bearish candle. Short positions might have triggered and it is recommended to hold the same and also add on intraday rallies from here on. Risk remains at 1.4900. Resistance is at 1.4900; while support is at 1.4350, followed by 1.4200 and 1.4000 respectively. The entire structure might be unfolding as a head and shoulder reversal; where the current engulfing bearish is probable right shoulder. Extensions are pointing towards 1.4150 and 1.4000 levels respectively. Prices should remain below 1.4900 levels from here on.
Trading recommendations:
Remain short, set stop at 1.4910, target is open.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 26, 2013

Overview:
The GBP/USD pair was not stable and the trend was not also so clear (it was tight sideways range); moreover, according to the previous events, the price has still been trapped between the level of 1.6450 and 1.6220, so be careful in this area. Therefore, it should wait for a period of tight sideways range market before breakouts. Then, it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market from the support at the level 1.6220. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 1.6220 with the first target of 1.6350 and it will climb towards 1.6450. However, If the pair does not break 1.6473, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the resistance that will be set at the level 1.6473. The level will be strong resistance. And probably the market will call for downtrend from the level of 1.7473 in order to continue bearish towards 1.6346 (the weekly pivot point).

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[IFX Gertrude]

Crude near resistance mark at $100.

Crude is holding above the 21EMA level facing stiff resistance at the level of $100. Intraday downside support is at $99 mark. Last week, I gave a buy call for $103 target, now I am extending the targets. Trades above the level $100 mark, it could fly towards $102, $104 levels.
Recommendation- Buy on dips with sl at $96 for targets at $104.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Dow near crucial level 2

Dow reaches its upper trend line at the level 16700. Last couple of times we mentioned that the level near 16700 is the very crucial level for Dow. Yesterday Dow hits intra high at the level of 16562 and closed at 16444 indicating triple digit loss. In the daily charts, oscillators shows negative divergence. The new year started in a negative notes for equities. Its first negative start after the year of 2008.
Support - 16,170 16,058 15,900
Resistance - 16,700
Close above 16,700, Dow will enter a new trend.
Recommendation - sell with sl 16700

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