Fort Financial Services
Broker Representative
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
19.02.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US dollar fixed divergent results in the disputes with its main competitors. The dollar has grown against the euro and the yen and has fallen against the pound. Earlier the euro was supported by the economic data and the hopes that the Greeks and the Eurozone still will come to an agreement, because both sides expressed readiness to continue the dialogue.
The Japanese yen came under pressure amid the renewed US "Treasuries" bond yields growth and the neutral mood within the pound, formed due to the absence of negativity in the US inflation readings that was reduced, but only because of the energy prices decrease which is considered as a positive moment in an economic development.
The US statistics showed not so encouraging results. The New-York Fed manufacturing index fell in February to 7.78 from 9.95 in January while the components, indicating the possible prospects, also decreased - new orders fell to 1.22 from the previous 6.09 and the employment growth slowed to 10.1 from 13.7 last month. With the home builders sentiment decrease has been announced the National Home Builders Association report (NAHB) – the index fell down to 55 against 57 in January when it was expected a growth to the level of 58. These messages discouraged investors a little bit, still it has not caused the large-scale dollar sales.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The pair euro/dollar was supported by the ECB reports that the Bank will not stop the emergence Greek banks funding this week and Greece will request for the financial assistance program extension.
However, according to the ZEW the attitude towards the euro has deteriorated because of the weaker than expected sentiment indicators growth in the German economy.
Despite the level breakthrough of 1.1400, the price did not hurry to rise up to the correction. The pair fell under this level.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1520 soon.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The attitude towards the pound declined after the UK annual inflation decrease to the minimum for more than 50 years to 0.3% in January from 0.5% in December that was in line with our expectations. The pair growth potential also restricts the British pound sales within the increasing pair euro/pound.
The last week maximum of 1.5300 served as a good support for the corrective pound. The formed consolidation above this level signals about the bullish trend continuation. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5400.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
The potential growth targets are two resistance levels of 1.5510 и 1.5620.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision was in the center of our attention on Wednesday. The central bank governor Mr. Kuroda said that there were no reasons to think about the additional mitigating measures. The pair is supported by the yen weakened attractiveness as a safe haven.
The two day consolidation around 118.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. The pair rose to the resistance level of 119.20. The trading volumes are in the downgrade zone.
The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement, and form a “Golden Cross”.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.
Trading recommendations
We suppose the pair will go to 118.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.