Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The Forex market trading week started rather quietly. The consumer confidence weak release in the euro area, as well as the ECB governor Mario Draghi’s speech about the loose monetary policy that will be preserved for a "long time" activated the euro/dollar bears, but they were not able to pull them forwards.

The US negative macroeconomic data also played its role. The August sales in the secondary housing market showed a decrease of 1.8% and this is the third release of a weak construction sector. The housing market is traditionally sensitive to changes in the economy and these reports are the first alarm bell for the GDP final release for the 3rd quarter.

The pair GBP/USD was growing up against the EUR/GBP cross-rate reduction, as well as the negative sales release in the US secondary market. It should be noted that the quotations growth is restrained.

Global stock markets overstock coupled with the US housing market weak statistics putting downward pressure on the pair USD/JPY. However, attempts to develop a corrective bearish movement were unsuccessful. The USD/JPY uptrend is still stable and very few factors can break it at the moment.

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the opinion of the central bank governor, the risk balance will be shifted to the weaker growth side if it is necessary, the ECB is ready to take additional measures to stimulate the economy and avoid deflation.

The pair EUR/USD will be consolidated at the support level of 1.2850. The euro/dollar trading is below the resistance level which last week was cut through against the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.2930 retest may lead to a price rebound down. The bears need to break below 1.2850 for a steady decrease.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The current GBP/USD pair rise happened for several reasons. In particular, the UK market participants expect the published the mortgage loan publication from BBA.

The pair GBP/USD is corrected to a downward trend line of 1.6440. The fourth time, the pound intends to test the downward trend line of 1.6440.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 1.6440 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.6270.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen may continue to consolidate near the 109th figure. It is difficult to expect surprises from the US macroeconomic statistics in manufacturing sector according to PMI index. The Japan internal situation is negative.

The pair USD/JPY is corrected to the rising trend line of 108.50. Partly consolidation below 109.00 led to the downward correction.

The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 109.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to consolidate in the previous price range. The market is stable with the absence of important news. The dollar buying is still in demand. The US economy shows good results, so we should expect some movement from the Fed monetary policy.

The pair continues to consolidate at the top of the growth wave.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 0.9340 further on we expect a growth to 0.9450 where the pair may stop.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD decreased at the trading day end. Before this the pair has completed a minimum quotation increase by 0.1%. Markit Economics has published a large number of France and the Germany releases. The France PMI as well as in the euro area also were released. It should be noted that in general, the data came out worse than the forecasted medians which confirms the economic growth slowdown in the European countries. Nevertheless, the traders ignored the negative statistics.

The GBP/USD has also demonstrated a lateral trend. The EUR/GBP cross-rate quotations decrease and the US moderately negative statistics on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector supported the pound demand.

The yen counterattack will not be long after the USD/JPY drop to 108.50/108.20, it is necessary to open long positions. The Japanese stock market closed the main session in the "red zone" that led to the dollar/yen sales. But then the bulls began to open "longs", based on the strong uptrend continuation. The US industrial sector PMI release was a little worse than the forecast, but the investors ignored these statistics.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single currency remained under pressure after the latest data showed that the private sector business activity has grown slowly in September, raising expectations of additional stimulus by the European Central Bank.

The EUR corrective increase to the level of 1.2905 was followed by a short-term bounce rate down. The price has continued to decline without volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.2790. After breaking 1.2790 the pair may go to 1.2730.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling slightly fell down. Earlier the pound fully compensated its losses.

Optimistic prospects for the Bank of England future actions give a support to the pound rate, as well as the political situation stabilization after the referendum on Scottish independence.

The British pound tried to rise to the downward trend line of 1.6440. The short-term increase was followed by the lower volumes and the price was immediately falling down.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.6340 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.6270, 1.6180.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen gained a support after the Prime Minister Abe reportedly said that the weak yen had both positive and negative consequences and he intended to monitor closely the weak yen impact to the regional economy, as well as small and medium enterprises.

The sellers tried to break below the support level of 108.50. The short-term testing led to the price upwards rebound.

The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 109.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss currency continues to lose its ground. The head of the Swiss National Bank, Jordan said the central bank would continue to defend the "threshold" franc to the euro. Meanwhile, the banker said that the franc slightly overrated and the regulator would take further action if it was necessary

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9500.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

After a short falling the US dollar again is raised to new highs - the dollar index basket (USDX) has completed the trading day at 85.02. The main pair EUR/USD has fallen to the 28th figure after the extremely positive release publication for the US new home sales. In August the sales increased by a record 18%, that give us a good ground for a pessimism about the US economy prospects. The IFO business climate index in Germany showed the lowest level from February 2013 till September in Germany and against this negative background the bears began to reduce actively the euro/dollar.

The GBP/USD was trying to consolidate above the 64th figure against the reducing cross-rate EUR/GBP, but the US positive macroeconomic data about the housing market do not give the bulls hope for success. The decline in the oil quotations only fueled the dollar demand and against this negative background the pound made a sharp drop back down.

The USD/JPY was under pressure amid the Tokyo Stock Exchange low quotes in the early hours of the Asian trading session. However, the European traders’ arrival supported the dollar demand after the United States new home sales strong report publication, the dollar sharply raised up. It should be noted that the bullish sentiment was observed not only towards the American dollar, but also in the stock markets.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European Central Bank president Mario Draghi promised to keep the soft policy until the Central Bank would not be able to raise the inflation to a certain optimal level by about 2 %.

The US and Europe macroeconomic statistics demonstrate the difference in the regional growth prospects.

The rebound from the downtrend line 1.2930 was followed by the euro active decrease against the American dollar. The breakthrough occurred at the level of 1.2790 on the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is directed down side. We expect the level of 1.2670 testing soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British Pound remains under pressure, despite the attempts to recover. Meanwhile, the increase above 1.6440 can not be excluded against the empty calendar of British events. Therefore, the investors pay their attention to the American statistics which forms the course dynamics.

The rates consolidation formed below the trend line at 1.6340 led to the downward price rebound. In the short term we expect the level of 1.6270 breakthrough, the lower boundary of the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.6270 line break that will open the way to 1.6180.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen attempts to recover its losses. The US dollar rose slightly against the yen after Mr. Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, aggressively commented the weaker yen negative impact to the regional economy. The US home sales recent disappointing data in the secondary market contributed to the recent correction.

The buyers tested for strength the strong resistance level of 109.00. From this level it formed a downward correction. The corrective price decline was stopped by the rising trend line at 108.50.

The price is finding the first support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 109.40, 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The dollar had a surprisingly strong data about the state of the US housing market. In result the Fed raising interest rates will be likely increased in the nearest future.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9560.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 85.20. The EUR/USD set a new local minimum for the last 22 months - traders continue to sell off the euro against the ECB "cheap money" policy. The 10-year German state bonds profit abilities differential dropped back below 1% which confirms the deflationary sentiment presence in the Old World.

The pound fell at the end of the last week. It is important to note that before this the GBP/USD has consolidated near the 63rd figure. Mark Carney’s comments were able to support the moderate pound demand– the Bank of England president stated that the time for the rate increase was getting closer and was delayed for a long time after the first increase that was critical to the UK real estate market.

The USD/JPY has continued to develop a bullish trend despite the US negative macroeconomic data. The August orders for consumer durables decreased by 18.2%, indicating to a quite restrained private consumption in the third quarter. It should be noted that the US macroeconomic releases showed a mixed trend the last week and now we cannot speak about the strong economic growth, similar to that we saw in the second quarter this year.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR/USD remains under the sellers’ pressure. Many investors have already achieved their goals, so the consolidation is possible from these levels. A further decrease is also possible, but it requires a strong driver. While the European Central Bank (ECB) does not apply more drastic measures, further reduction is delayed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2670, the next one is 1.2600.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The GBP/USD fell at the end of the last week. Before this the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made it clear that there was a high likelihood for raising interest rates in the foreseeable future that deterred from the further pound/dollar decrease and contributed to the pair recovery to 1.6340. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the prospects of interest rates rise will not have a supportive effect on the former British currency that should alert the bulls for it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is directed down. We advise to long positions with the first target – 1.6100, the next one is 1.6030.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The current exchange rate US Dollar rose to Japanese yen after the Japan Minister of Welfare speech, the government does not abandon the pension fund reform plans.

The yen strengthened after the latest statement by the Japan Minister of Health regarding the lack of haste in the pension fund reforms, which could lead to the number of assets increase which would be possible to invest.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the target – 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

After insignificant correction the franc continues to consolidate after the achieved fresh lows against the US dollar.

The dollar reached a four-year high after Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. announced further US dollar rise due to the possible Fed interest rates growth in the middle of the next year against the monetary policy preservation by major central banks.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is rising.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The main dollar competitors once again came under attack - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.63. The euro is consolidating. Before this the EUR/USD fell against the euro zone negative macroeconomic data and the US positive release in terms of the GDP growth. The Germany consumer confidence index showed the minimum value over the past 7 months in September, which is a negative factor for the inflation. The final data about the US economic growth for the 2nd quarter were revised upwards to the level of 4.6%, the last time we saw such a strong growth in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The GBP/USD consolidated most of the day near the 63 figure, but in the midst of the American trading session also came under a sales wave against the dollar upward trend line. The Great Britain did not please the traders with the interesting reports this day and all market participants' attention was focused on the United States data. There was published moderately positive GDP figures.

The CPI showed a 0.1% decrease the last month in Japan that cheered the bulls to open the long positions in the USD/JPY. The corporate bonds demand had the same positive impact on the bullish sentiment for the USD/JPY in Tokyo stock exchange.

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro weakened by 0.1 % to 1.2670, before falling to nearly two-year low. The ECB meeting will take place on Thursday, after which we do not expect important news. The United States will publish an labor report on Friday, as it is expected, it will give the Fed an opportunity for the early interest rates hike.

The euro/dollar is traded in the descending channel direction where the price has been trading for the second month in a row. The support level of 1.2730 was broken down. There are no trade obstacles for bears.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a directed downwards. We expect the level of 1.2600 testing soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound remained under pressure. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the time for the interest rates rise was getting closer and also noted that the date had not yet specified as it depended on the economic data.

There was the support level of 1.6270 breakthrough that confirms the downward trend which will now play the resistance role. Besides the breakthrough, the bears returned the price to the downward trend line, thus opening the way to the current month lows - the levels of 1.6100, 1.6030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.6440.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen is again in decline amid the speculations that the Japanese government will continue to take up the measures along with the reforms to the Japan pension fund, whose total assets are $1.2 trillion.

The increase volumes remain in the growth area. Consequently, the buyers remain dominant players in this trading instrument. Additionally, the trade is in the upward direction.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continued to fall after the euro. The dollar rose after the US statistics showed that the GDP increased by 4.6% in the second quarter which met forecasts and is higher than the preliminary estimates of 4.2%. The indicator is following the GDP decline by 2.1% in the previous quarter and shows the best result since mid-2009.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week has passed quietly enough for the single European currency that has been decreasing. Spain and Germany have published the September inflation preliminary data. Both figures were better than the forecasted medians, but still there was no CPI increase. The euro exchange rate at the moment reached 1.2715, but the bulls did not find strength for something else. The US private expenses consumption release can be slightly better than the traders expect, which will support the demand for the dollar. The PCE index showed an increase by 0.1% in August which is a positive factor for the economic growth.

The GBP/USD has showed a moderate increase by 0.15%. Nevertheless the pair fell down. There were no fundamental prerequisites for the British currency consolidation - M4 monetary aggregate still points out to the inflationary pressure fall which is a negative factor for the monetary policy tightening. The traders took profits on short positions, as a result we observed the moderate pound growth before the pair decreased.

The sales at the biggest world stock exchange market have frozen the USD/JPY bulls’ enthusiasm. However, we have not observed the American currency strong sales that confirms a stable upward trend. The market participants remain positive about the dollar/yen and increase the "longs" on corrective dips. The US real personal consumption expenditure allowed the USD/JPY to close the trading day in the "green zone".

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro/dollar remains under pressure against the dollar position. The US consumption expenditure rose in August, supporting the optimistic forecasts for the American economy. The American two-year bond yield approached the maximum level by 0.6 % from May 2011.

The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.2730 and then it fell down to the support level of 1.2600.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2500. We do not exclude the growth to 1.2730.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound partly compensated its losses incurred earlier against the dollar after the UK positive economic data publication. The August consumer lending amounted to £0.898 billion that exceeded the forecasts, but turned out to be worse than the July values total 1.108 billion.

The British pound is correcting upward at the low volumes. The price movement priority direction is a downtrend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6180 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The USD/JPY reached six-year maximum and continued its growth. One can hardly expect a significant dollar weakening in anticipation of the United States Friday employment report, the Wednesday Tankan report by the Bank of Japan and a decision on the EU interest rates that will be taken on Thursday.

Previously, the buyers could break above the resistance level of 109.40, which acts as a support. The growth is not supported by the trade volume.

The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the resistance at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

After a minor consolidation the dollar /frank sharply rose. The head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the central bank would continue to defend the level of 1.20 francs per euro. Also, the bank would be ready to take immediate actions and to use the additional measures if it was necessary.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar ended the trading day with a steady growth against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the day at 85.95. The EUR/USD was under attack after the euro area inflation release was published. According to the preliminary data, CPI decreased by 0.3% at an annual rate which again points out to the economic deflation. Against this negative background we observed the euro sales, and at the moment the price reached the level of 1.2600 and then traders started partly to take profits closing their "shorts". As the result we saw a technical rebound that was followed by the consolidation.

The GBP/USD will be under pressure during the day amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. The negative payments balance has increased sharply in the second quarter confirming the existing problems in the UK economy. Against this background, the bears were able to push the price to 1.6180, but when American market participants appeared we observed a moderate demand for the pound against the US negative consumer confidence macroeconomic statistics. In September the Conference Board index showed a decline to the level of 86 p. It is worth noting that this figure is still above the 12-month average which is positive for the US dollar bulls.

Despite the American and the Japanese stock market correction the USD/JPY is still in demand among traders. It is worth noting that we had strong sales of "black gold" and this factor has traditionally been a positive for the dollar. The Japan macroeconomic statistics continues to disappoint investors. The August industrial production fell by 1.5%, which confirms the export problems. Household expenditures show a significant reduction five months in a row which also negatively affects the economy. In this regard, the traders have no choice if only to buy the US dollar.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell by 0.11 %, losing 3.82 % in September, which has been the worst result for more than two years. Euro Area annual inflation rate fell to 0.3 percent in September from 0.4 percent in August.

The downward trend, supported by trade volumes, is still relevant.

There was a price fall at 1.2660 followed by a consolidation amid the EUR fundamental data (German Unemployment Change).


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2500.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continued its downward movement. The reason was the fundamental data high volatility (quarterly GDP and annual GDP). The statistics showed the payments balance reducing deficit in the third quarter.

There was a price fall against the increased volume and the pair reached the support level of 1.6180. Here we can see the price consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level of 1.6180. The way to the mark 1.6100 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the dollar. However there was a price falling at the end of the trading day.

The Bank of Japan will have a meeting the next week and it buys bonds in the amount from $60 trillion ($ 548 billion) to 70 trillion in order to fight the deflation. The Central Bank is trying in such a way to increase the inflation rate up to the annual 2%.

At the moment, the buyers were able to consolidate above intermediate resistance level of 109.70.

The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the resistance at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc did not compensate the losses deducted before. The US dollar rose amid the expectations to raise the Fed interest rates.

The market participants predict a further dollar rise, if the US economic statistics points out to the possibility of an early interest rates rise by the US Federal Reserve.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9620.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We can observe a mixed trend in the foreign exchange market. The pair EUR/USD consolidated during the day near the 26th figure against the US mixed news. The ADP population employment index came out better than the forecast at 213 000. This level was higher than the annual average which can count on the positive Non-Farm release. However, the ISM manufacturing sector showed a reduction to 56.6% in September which once again confirms the economic growth slowdown in the 3rd quarter.

The PMI manufacturing sector released by Markit Economics has been showing a decline for three months in a row. This year third quarter turned out to be the weakest for the manufacturing economic sector that finds its reflection in the final GDP release. The strong sales also had a negative impact on the pound at the London stock market.

The USD/JPY was able to overcome the 110th figure, but the bulls could not hold on it. The dollar with the yen sharply decreased. Many traders hurried up to take profits, besides we have seen the sales continuation in the world's leading stock exchange. The investors’ escape from risky assets has traditionally supported the demand for the "safe-haven" yen.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This week main event was the ECB meeting results announcement. All market participants' attention was focused on the press conference by the ECB President Mario Draghi.

The latest CPI index release showed the inflationary pressure reduction in the euro area to 0.3% and now the investors are looking forward to the further measures being implemented, directed to prevent the deflation threat.

It is planned the EUR/USD corrective growth rate. The bullish views are getting more popular.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.2730 retest may lead to the price rebound down. We do not exclude the fall to 1.2600. The way to the mark 1.2500 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound is under pressure this week amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. The September PMI construction sector index can also be negative, due to lower activity in the mortgage market.

The tone is negative in the market and the pair broke downwards the support level of 1.6180.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6100 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6030 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan stock markets looks very bearish which is a negative factor for the pair. According to ADP, the change in the US private sector population employment amounted to 213K in September, against the expected 210K.

The Markit manufacturing PMI amounted to 57.5 in September against the expected 58.5, and the ISM manufacturing PMI amounted to 56.6 in September against the expected 58.5.

The USD/JPY decline is at the strong support level of 108.00.

The price is finding the first support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 109.40. After breaking 109.40 the buyers may go to 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. There are rumors about the Swiss National Bank intervention (SNB).

In September 2011, the SNB set a lower limit for the EUR/CHF at the level of 1.2000 with a view to prevent excessive franc appreciation amid the strengthening economic crisis in the Eurozone.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The euro finished the last week with the quotation decrease. The US dollar stopped its decline against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) has finished the trading week above 85.65. The ECB's monetary policy meeting release publication was the main event for the pair EUR/USD. At the press conference, Mario Draghi said that the monetary control would begin the ABS assets purchases process worth up to $1 trillion euro in mid October. The short-term inflation forecasts were again lowered in the euro area which is a negative factor for the European economy. It is worth noting that we have not seen the EUR/USD strong sales. Traders took profits on short positions after the ECB president press conference.

The pair GBP/USD has been traded for three days in a row in the "red zone". The positive data about the UK construction purchasing managers’ index for September has not helped the British currency- the index was better than the forecasted medians at the level of 64.2. The pound sterling was stabbed back after receiving the10-year bond yield from the bond market that fell to one-year low amid the Brent oil quotations fall. The US and UK bond yields differential has expanded once again.

The dollar/yen has shown an upward movement at the end of the trading week.The pair USD/JPY remains under pressure amid sales on the world markets shares. Investors continue to escape from risky assets that increase the demand for the "safe haven" yen. Even the US positive macroeconomic statistics has not helped the bulls- the initial jobless claims fell to the level of 287 thousand last week which is a positive factor for the labor market data.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has started to behave volatile after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi started the conference in Naples, Italy. The ECB left interest rates at the record low level, as many traders had expected. The refinancing rate was maintained at the level of 0.05% and the deposit rates remained unchanged at the level with minus of 0.2%.

The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the trades were within the EUR/USD upward correction. Bulls have raised the price on the high volume, bringing it closer to the strong resistance level of 1.2740. The pair fell to a new low at the support level of 1. 2500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound continued its decline and set a new three weeks low, despite the strong data about the Britain construction sector. The UK construction sector business activity index exceeded forecasts in September and increased up to 64.2, while it had expected the rise to 63.5. However, the pound fell after the Broadbent’s statement, the Bank of England representative that the UK is not still ready to raise the interest rates.

The British pound continues to stay in the downward channel. The bears have broken the support level of 1.6030 and were fixed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5950 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen continued its decline after its rise provoked by the Finance vice minister Nobuhide Minorikava stated that the weak currency was affected for the companies, forcing up energy costs.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Amid the high volumes sellers tried to break through the support level of 108.00. But such a breakthrough has not been successful and the price bounced upward.

The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.00, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 109.00, 108.50. When the price comes to the level 108.50 it may consolidate.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to decrease after the minor consolidation. The franc ended the last trading week with sharp decline, reaching new lows.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long to the target - 0.9750.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The majors began to win back their position against the dollar on Monday. The US dollar has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last week at 86.65, the highest level since July 2010. The main event was the US labor market release.

It should be noted that the key parameters are significantly better than the forecasted medians - the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in September, the non-farm sector employment increased by 248 thousand. It should also be noted the trade balance report has come out better than the traders’ expectations. The positive macroeconomic data points out to the strong economic growth in the third quarter (3%) which has increased the US dollar and the American corporate bonds demand. Those who have written the US off from the accounts came out at the losing end.

The week news is inferior to the last session, concerning the significant economic publications. The particular attention will be paid to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes release. Investors will try to draw a conclusion about the US rate increase deadline. It is possible that the news weakness will possibly decrease the market activity and there will be observed a range trading tendency. However, we believe that the Fed is inclined to tighten the monetary policy, leaving priorities to the US dollar, especially after the last employment report about the rate hike within a very short timeframe not later than mid-2015.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European currency rose at the beginning of the week. Earlier the euro was being sold off against the dollar amid the ECB members ’ “dovish statements”, their confidence about the Fed’s and the European regulator’s differently directed monetary policies as well as the Eurozone weak economic statistics that points out to the downward trend continuation.

The euro looked very bearish, breaking the support level of 1.2600 last week. The level breakdown has occurred amid the increased volume. Then the pair bounced upward from the support level of 1.2500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect a flat. The downward bounce potential targets are 1.2500, 1.2400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling tries to grow. The British pound was also under pressure from the US dollar last week and it is worth noting that the "cable" was sold more actively than the euro. Obviously, the investors started to doubt the fact that the Bank of England would start to tighten its policy in a short-term.

The downward trend stopped at the level of 1.5950.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the levels of 1.6050 or 1.6100 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.5950, 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar stopped its growth and fell against the yen. Earlier it marked the new yearly highs amid the Fed and BoJ monetary policies increase expectations and the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's readiness to take the necessary measures to achieve the inflation target of 2%.

The buyers have managed to return the price into the rising channel, breaking up the resistance level of 109.40. The breakthrough has occurred amid the high volume. Then the price decreased and tested the level of 109.00.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After consolidating above the level of 109.00 the price will bounce upward to the level of 110.00. After the level of 110.00 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance level of 110.60 will be opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The American dollar is decreasing, against which the Swiss currency begins to strengthen.The dollar index reached a 4-year high after the US solid labor market report earlier that confirmed the world's largest economy recovery continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We will receive the Germany industrial production data for August with the European trading session opening. The industrial orders release pointed to the reducing strong production rate and in this connection we should expect the data release to be slightly worse than the forecasted medians. The US and German 10-year bond yield moderately declined on Monday, giving the bulls a little breath of fresh air. However, we do not expect the strong euro/dollar growth – the eurozone inflation expectations remain still low.

Today traders pay a special attention to the UK industrial production report. Both the industrial orders reduction and the 3-months PMI index decline point to the data release that is worse than the consensus forecast.

The pair dollar/yen corrected near the 109th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar and the current levels are good for the long positions opening for two reasons. Firstly the US dollar bullish trend is still in force amid the positive macroeconomic statistics. Secondly we expect the upward trend reinforcement on the US and Japan stock markets.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency has grown against the US dollar and started a consolidation. The technical levels have supported the euro/dollar and, in fact, the pair returned to its positions which were lost earlier.

The Germany industrial orders sharply fell in August. The PMI industrial sector grew to the lifting area in September.

The pair EUR/USD is correcting to the downward trend line of 1.2700.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the support levels 1.2600 or 1.2500 may lead to the price rebound upward.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound has grown against the dollar. The reason for such increased pound interest was the strong technical levels presented by the strong support as the UK news had no important messages.

We expect the industrial production indices for August. According to the forecasts, there will be good results that can keep the pound interest at the high level. The pair GBP/USD is testing the resistance level of 1.6100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen started to recover immediately before the next Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

The Japan's economy continued to recover at a moderate temps; however, the definite manufacturing sector is due to the sales tax increase.

The Bank of Japan has lowered the industrial output; the segment weakness is partially due to reserve structure changes.

The pair USD/JPY is correcting to the strong support level of 108.00.

The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 109.00, 109.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues its consolidation after the minor correction near the reached lows against the US dollar. We expect the USA consumer credit volume data for August.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has weakened slightly against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.68. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative German industrial production release. In August, the index fell to a record 4% which indicates the possible European largest economy recession.

The Great Britain also issued the industrial production release for August. The data came out worse than the forecasted medians, but were not as bad as the German ones. At first traders rushed to sell the pound sterling against the negative macroeconomic release, but then the bullish market sentiment was observed.

The pair USD/JPY has finished in the "red zone" for the second day in a row. According to the Bank of Japan meeting release there appeared the negative economic impact after the sales tax introduction. Also the monetary regulator pointed out to the industrial production weakness. Despite the negative comments the Japanese yen was able to strengthen its position against the American dollar. The main dollar/yen sale reason appeared to be the American stock markets that fell from 1 to 1.5%.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The tone became negative in the market after the report had noted the August sharp German industrial orders decline, raising fears that the eurozone largest economy is falling into a recession. The FOMC meeting minutes were published.

The downward trend line of 1.2670 is a main resistance for this pair. This level retest was followed by the price downward rebound. Buyers came to this downward trend line amid the reduced volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.2600. After breaking 1.3665 the pair may go to 1.2500.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound set up the two day high and then it again rebounded. The UK industrial production is not in its best condition.

The downward trend line retest of 1.6100 was followed by the consolidation. Then the price dropped down and returned to the support level of 1.6030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The price is possible to consolidate below the level 1.6060. The potential decrease target is the support level 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen strengthened after the International Monetary Fund had lowered its global economic growth forecast for both this and next year and had warned that the global economic recovery was weak and uneven.

The sellers were able to break through the strong support level of 108.50. The price did not manage to consolidate below the level despite it decreased to 108.00. This level was an additional obstacle, from which the pair bounced upward.

The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has strengthened its position on Tuesday amid the technical correction against the dollar. Even the weak national statistics publication did not stop the franc growth the last few days.

The retail sales report issued in Switzerland showed an increase of 1.9% against 0.7%. Traders successfully used this opportunity to justify the franc strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The last Federal Reserve meeting report knocked down the US dollar - the dollar index basket (USDX) came to the mark 85.35. Then the dollar won back some positions.

The FOMC currently believe to keep the federal fund rates low "for an extended period of time." It was told that the dollar revaluation against its major competitors could prevent inflationary pressure and also lead to the negative payment balance increase. It was emphasized that the Eurozone weak economy has the possibility to continue the dollar quotations growth in the foreign exchange market.

The euro remained under pressure after the data which reported a sharp August industrial orders decline in Germany, fearing that the euro zone's largest economy deviates towards the recession.

The disappointing data reinforced our views that the European Central Bank would resort to the new stimulating measures to promote economic growth.

According to the two-day policy meeting results, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, but it acknowledged that the reducing consumption after the April sales tax increase leads to an economic weakness.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell again at the end of the trading day. Earlier during the FOMC meeting minutes’ publication the US dollar weakened sharply towards the major currency pairs, breaking through the strong levels. The euro received some support with the some long dollar positions closing after the FOMC meeting minutes’ publication.

The resistance level was the downward trend line of 1.2670 for the EUR/ USD. Technically, the trend line break through has led to the downward trend upward turn. We expect the price growth to the nearest resistance level of 1.2850 in the long term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movment and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2850.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Britain currency decreased at the yesterday’s trading. Before this the pound has considerably strengthened its position against the dollar.

Investors are waiting for the Bank of England interest rates decision that will be announced today.

The upper bound channel breakthrough of 1.6100 was followed by the high volume formation. The subsequent growth rates allow customers to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.6180 where the price is being traded now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.6180 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.6270.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen received some support after the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had expressed his concern about the yen weakness impact on the national economy.

The level of 108.50 upward testing was unsuccessful. Sellers returned the price below the support level of 108.00, thus confirming their intention to continue the downward trend.

The level of 108.00 reverse break was amid the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.00, the next one is at 108.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 107.10, 106.70.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar managed to increase at the trades end. It is worth to be noted that earlier the dollar reduced its achievements against the major currencies after the FOMC meeting publication where the world’s economic recovery risks were noted, connected with the global growth deceleration and the dollar rise.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

There is an uncertainty sentiment in the currency market - the US dollar has significantly strengthened against its major competitors in the recent months and the technical correction is long overdue, however, the dollar bears’ first attempt was unsuccessful. The Fed gave hope to the bears last week but the “black gold” quotations decrease supported the American currency later. It should be noted that the oil sales have a negative impact on the whole world's leading economy, as inflation is now below the level of 2% and the oil bearish trend will have a significant pressure on the CPI.

Against this backdrop, investors think which currency will be the most affected due to the low inflation expectations. In this regard, we have observed the US dollar demand - traders left the commodity market and transferred their assets in cash, namely in the US dollar.

The initial jobless claims release which came out better than the forecasted medians has also raised the dollar bulls’ sentiment. Four-week initial jobless claims average set a fresh yearly low at around 287.75K which indicates the American labor market positive trends.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors’ sentiment has changed with the eurozone economic data and the European currency was in the sales wave. The price movement, directed to the rising channel, has turned down.

The price turned back to the support level of 1.2600 amid the high-volume that has acted as the strong resistance for a long time. The level breakthrough has not occurred yet.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2600. The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 1.2500, 1.2400.

Pound(GBP)

General overview

The pound tried to continue its growth against the dollar, but it ended the last week with a decline as the euro did. The UK important events have not provoked any significant reaction in the market as the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy parameters.

The downtrend is still in progress. The corrective growth rates were stopped from the support level of 1.6100. The downward trend line of 1.6180 did not let buyers to go upwards. The trend line testing was followed by the price rebound to the support level of 1.6030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6030 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5950 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The trades were in the context of the dollar rise for the most major currency pairs. However, this correlation was ignored by the Japanese yen which gradually leads to the position recovery after the long decrease.

The stock markets’ falling optimism and the neutral situation in the US national debts market resulted in the investors’ return to the Japanese yen.

The key support level of 108.00 was broken through. In this case, the current trade is in the descending channel direction. It should also be noted that the trading volumes are at the high levels.

The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.00, the next one is at 108.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.10, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.70.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has lost some won positions against the US dollar and started a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The first half of the week passed quietly enough amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics. The EUR/USD consolidated near the resistance level of 1.2698. Traders do not hurry to open new positions and in this regard the trade passed quietly enough.

The speech of Fed’s deputy head S. Fischer caused some pressure on the US dollar who stated that the slower foreign economic growth can make the Fed treat the soft policy closure less aggressively. The US bond treasury collapse had a negative impact on the dollar.

We got the German wholesale prices which pointed out to the continued year decrease -0.9% y / y vs. -0.6% y / y and the ECB board member P. Pratt touched once again in his speech the subject upon the eurozone deflation risks.

The pair GBP/USD has reached the level of 1.6125, after that the bears assumed a counter offensive. The UK bond yields set a fresh yearly low on Monday, indicating the weaker inflationary pressure. In this regard, the British pound will not be in demand among traders as the Bank of England can take a pause in tightening the monetary policy in early 2015.

Despite the fact that the long-term trend is still in force – the USD / JPY traders do not rush to open long positions. The external background is clearly not on the bulls’ side – the first reason is the US dollar decrease against its major counterparts and the second is the downward trend in the American market.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The US dollar suffered a loss for the first time in three trading sessions after the Fed member’s statement about the possible interest rates rise delay due to the world economic slowdown.

The eurozone expects negative news. The August industrial production is expected to be-1.5% against its growth by 1.0% in July, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for October in Germany is expected to decline from 6.9 to 0.2 points, the ZEW economic sentiment in eurozone is expected to decline from 14.2 to 7.1.

The euro corrective growth against the US dollar is not supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

Trading recommendations

As a result of the resistance level of 1.2670 breakthrough upwards, the next target for buyers will be the mark of 1.2730.

Pound (GBP)

We do not expect positive news for the British pound- the BRC retail sales for September showed a 2.1% year-on-year decline against the 1.3% growth in August.

The UK consumer price index (CPI) for September is expected to decline from 1.5% to 1.4% y/y.

The base CPI (excluding motor vehicles) is expected to be 1.8% y/y vs. 1.9% y/y in August.

The UK retail price index (RPI) is expected to be 2.3% y / y vs. 2.4% y / y.

The producer prices are expected to decline at the entrance by 0.4% m/m, in the output by 0.1% m/m

The pair GBP/USD is corrected to the downward trend line of 1.6200. The trading volumes do not support the formed correction.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target will be the month low- the resistance level of 1.6030.

Yen (JPY)

After a ten year reduction the Japanese is going to rebound amid the US stock indices decline by 1.3% -1.6%, and the Nikkei225reduction by 1.45% and the producer price index fall for September by 3.5% y/y vs. 3 9% y / y in August.

We expect the neutral retail sales data and strong industrial production ones and construction indicators on Thursday and on Friday. After these data the yen can rise up.

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating below the strong resistance level of 107.35

The short-term price consolidation below 107.35 is more likely to lead to a rebound and to the further price decline.

The price is finding the first support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.10, the next one is at 107.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 106.30.

Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc continues to consolidate near the lows against the dollar. The Switzerland Central bank head Jordan said that the regulator would protect the exchange rate lower threshold through intervention if it was necessary.

We observe the dollar weaknesses against the major currencies, against the yen in particular as investors argue once again about the possible earlier interest rate increase by the US central bank.

From a technical point of view, the USD/CHF is trading above 0.9500. It is presented below support at the level of 0.9470. The resistance is at the level of 0.9600 and 0.9680 and is upwards at the level of 0.9830.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9430. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to regain some lost ground - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.84. The pair EUR/USD is not still able to determine the direction. If it was not for the Fed's statement, the dollar revaluation would be able to prevent inflationary pressure - the bears were able to set the fresh lows. The bulls were able to overclock quotes to the mark of 1.2767 in the Asian session amid the US and German 10-year bonds spread decline. But after the weak release by the ZEW Institute, we observed the price decrease. The oil market sales only intensify deflationary expectations and, in this regard, we saw a fresh one-year low on the German 10-year bond yields.

The pair GBP/USD fell strongly - the trade ended by 1.13% quotes decline. CPI showed a 1.2% year- on- year decline in September which indicates the lower inflationary pressure. Against this background, the UK monetary regulator will not hurry to raise interest rates that is a negative factor for the currency. Traders were trying to get rid of the British pound the whole day that led to the massive pound sell-offs along the entire market.

Stock markets showed a positive trend the whole day which supported the moderate US dollar demand amid the lack of interesting US and Japan macroeconomic releases.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone economic news was clearly not on the European currency side. In fact all the published indicators caused the sales resumption and the euro ended the session with its decline against the US dollar.

The euro corrective growth against the dollar was stopped by the lower bound channel breakthrough of 1.2790. The breakthrough of such a strong resistance was amid the low volumes and the further EUR volatile news.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The current upward movement is considered as a correction so far. The correction can reach 1.2850 where we expect a return to the fall.

Pound (GBP)

Like the euro the British pound also was under the strong pressure against the US dollar. The pound sales were caused by the UK economic data, noting that the UK inflation became slower in September than it was expected. We expect the UK employment data and the salary dynamics information.

Negative fundamental data within the GBP (Consumer Price Index) led to a confident bearish trend continuation. At yesterday's trading session traders were able to get out of the rising channel and broke through the support level of 1.5950 downwards.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The decrease shall be continued. The targets are 1.5860 and 1.5770.

Yen (JPY)

The events at the yesterday's dollar/yen trading session showed non-permanent market views. Investors are more reluctant to take risks, concerning the global economic growth that has put pressure on the US dollar and the levels to which the US dollar fell were good for its sale. As a result, the US dollar traded against the yen in the narrow corridor and it had a very small plus at the end of the day.

The price is finding the first support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.30, the next one is at 106.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 105.20.

Franc (CHF)

The US and eurozone weak macroeconomic data put pressure on the pound and the euro on Tuesday as investors continue to consider that the US economic prospects are better than the Europe ones.

Against this background the US dollar has only won as it was able to recover after the Monday fall against the Swiss franc.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9430. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday we observed a high volatility in all financial markets due to the credit markets turbulence. All major global bond yields have sharply fallen, indicating the possible deflationary collapse in the short term. The US 10-year bond treasuries fell to the level of 1.86% that caused long dollar positions rapid elimination. Despite the fact that the German bonds also updated the yearly lows yields – the pair EUR / USD has sharply increased fearing that the Fed will not close the QE-3 this month.

The pair GBP / USD is still under pressure, despite the fact that it has completed the third trading day in positive area. The August unemployment rate reduced to the level of 6% in the UK and the moderate salary increase is a positive signal for the economy. If it was not for the lower inflationary pressure, traders would have an excellent opportunity to start a "bull rally." However, the low CPI is a strong deterrent and against this background the pound set a fresh low during the day for the past 11 months. The US and UK 10-year bond yields strongly expanded on Wednesday that was a negative factor for the British currency.

The pair USD/JPY came under a powerful sales wave on Wednesday amid the drastic US 10-year bond yields reduction. The US inflation expectations have weakened with the sales on the stock markets that point out to the possible deflationary spiral in the world's largest economy. In the light of this traders bought the yen.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The German inflation reports pointed out to the continued price stagnation in September that was at the very low levels after their final evaluation - September CPI has kept the previous two months indicators, having fixed 0.0% m/m and 0.8% y/y. The US economic weak data provided the euro growth popularity.

The US dollar sharply weakened its position against its major currency pairs. The formed correction was followed by very high volumes on many trade assets that indicate the further dollar decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The current upward movement is considered as a correction so far. The correction can reach 1.2850 where we expect a return to the fall. We expect the return to a decrease every moment now.

Pound (GBP)

The British pound has also increased against the US dollar. Buyers were able to return the price to the resistance level of 1.6100. In this case the price return was amid the very high trading volume.

Despite the fact that the high volume appeared within the bullish trade, the trend is still downward in the medium term. There can be formed the small price correction to the resistance level of 1.6100 in the short term. Or it will be the next descending trend line retest of 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The decrease shall be continued. The targets are 1.5950 and 1.5860.

Yen (JPY)

The dollar/yen strengthened yesterday at the Asian session amid the Japanese stock market the support growth and the American session beginning. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the US news that caused the US bonds treasuries sharp drop.

The price is finding the first support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.30, the next one is at 106.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 105.20.

Franc (CHF)

The dollar exchange rate decreased with the stock quotations and the US bond yields after the US weak economic statistics.

The UK 10-year bond yields fell to 17-month low below 2 %.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9370. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9330.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We observed different directed trends within the major currency pairs last week. Bulls cannot still develop the full correction movement on the EUR/USD - as soon as the quotations are above 28th figures, sellers come to the market and the US dollar recovers its lost ground. The US initial jobless claims release over the past week came out much better than traders had expected that also held bulls back. Against this background, the trading day on Friday ended with the quotations decrease by 0.2%.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure at the European trading session amid the negative investors’ sentiment towards the UK lower inflationary pressure. At the moment the prices reached the level of 1.5940, and then we observed the pound position recovery. The US and UK bond yields significantly decreased in the second half of the day on Friday that led to the short positions pound closing. Against this backdrop, the trading day ended in the "green field" within the pair pound/dollar on Friday.

Traders chose the upward direction for the USD/JPY on Friday. The high volatility is still observed on the credit markets and the stock market volatility puts traders to a standstill. Against this backdrop, the dollar/yen was growing towards the 107th figure during the day.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro/dollar spent the Friday session in a limited range and closed the session almost with the opening prices. The eurozone data gave the market some disappointment because the latest September inflationary evaluation confirmed the earlier price pressure growth results only 0.3% y/y that keeps the deflationary risks, and the foreign trade block information pointed to the August export and import drop.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.2670. We believe the pair to return to a decrease soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continued its growth against the US dollar that started on the Wednesday trading and then started a consolidation. The UK economic news was not published and the increased pound interest could be based on the fact that the Bank of England tightening policy is opposed to the ECB and the Bank of Japan policies that can be our guidance in an uncertainty period.

The bulls were able to break through above the strong resistance level of 1.6030. The level breakthrough occurred on the high volume, but the price growth was not long term, soon the pair consolidated.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidation.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line retest is more likely to lead to the price support levels 1.6030, 1.5950 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen was trading as the euro in the narrow corridor against the US dollar and finished the Friday trades with a decrease. The Bank of Japan Mr. Kuroda’s speech affected the pair movement who stated that the Japanese yen decrease was positive for Japan as well as the increased market yields treasuries.

The support level of 105.70 testing led to the short-term consolidation with the subsequent price growth. The intermediate growth target was the resistance level of 106.30. Having overcome this level, the pair tested the level of 106.70.

The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is correcting upwards now. The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 106.30, 105.70 soon.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stabilized against the US dollar amid our expectations that the US economy is ahead of the Europian and Japan economy.

The US data publication showed that the initial jobless claims fell to 264K versus 287K the previous week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to strengthen significantly its position against its main competitors the last week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed at around 85.20. The pair EUR/USD was moderately decreasing during the day amid the US positive macroeconomic data. The consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan established multi-year highs in October that dispels our skepticism about the US economic prospects. Traders tried to start a technical correction for the euro/dollar, but so far their efforts were unsuccessful. As soon as we see an increase above the 28th figure – bears immediately come to the market and the euro once again returns to the range of 1.2605 -1.2805.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed moderate demand during the day amid the short positions’ closing. The US and UK 10-year bond yields declined significantly to a level of 0.7 bp that in turn is a bullish signal for the pound sterling. We observed a technical rebound amid the US positive data about the consumer confidence by the Institute of Michigan. Then at the moment the pound quotes reached the level of 1.6180.

The pair USD/JPY strengthened significantly amid the global equity markets demand. After considerable sales on the American stock market – the bullish sentiment increased. The US positive data by Institute of Michigan supported the dollar. The consumer sentiment index showed a record growth to the level of 86.4 in October that confirms the US economic strength against its main competitors.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The part of the previous achievements was lost that was caused by the frustration tendency to the peripheral countries bond yield growth, the euro sales were caused by the ECB members’ statements and the US economic data that pointed out that the regenerative processes in the world's largest economy are still ongoing.

We have noticed a consolidation above the support level of 1.2730 for a long time. While trading volumes are still at the lows.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the resistance at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.2790 may lead to the price rebound upward. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.2850.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound got some pressure yesterday after the Bank of England Chief Economist E. Haldane speech where he said that he was "more gloomy" about Britain’s economic forecast than before and the UK interest rates should stay lower for longer without jeopardizing the inflation target which is 2%.

The upward correction volatility is gradually decreasing. The price is likely to rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen fell amid the increasing risk appetite in view of the US stock market optimism and the yield "Treasuries." slight increase. The political invariability of the Japanese regulator, aiming at achieving the inflation target of 2% could support the dollar.

Buyers were able to break through above the downward trend line of 106.70. The trend breakthrough was amid the low volumes and at the same time it was the signal to change the downward trend.

The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The trend goes downward. We expect the level of 106.30 testing soon.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has risen against the US dollar weakening. However, later the dollar reduced its losses against the major currencies amid the expectations that the US economy is ahead of the European and Japan economy.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure-the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 84.95 at the beginning of the week. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Traders are again trying to implement the corrective movement within the US dollar after the last US Fed protocol where it was pointed out the US dollar revaluation negative effects.

Against this background the main dollar competitors were in demand during the day, but now it is still too early to talk about the 100% dollar correction. The last two weeks we noticed how bulls tried to disperse the quotes up several times and faced strong pressure from the bears’ part. It should also be noted the negative trend on the commodity market – the CRB index finished the trading day in the "red zone" that is a positive factor for the dollar and will provide little support to it.

We do not expect the important macroeconomic statistics. We should emphasize the real estate sales’ release in the US secondary market. The real estate market releases which we received at the end of last week point out to a demand recovery after the August recession and in this regard we can expect the data release at the forecasted medians level.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell at the end of the yesterday trades. Earlier the single European currency has strengthened against the US dollar. However, the euro achievements were not impressive as its price has remained in the consolidation range and the euro has not shown any new local highs.

The long-awaited beginning of the ECB asset purchase program was treated by investors with almost complete indifference and had no effect on the market.

Buyers can not break through above the strong resistance level of 1.2850 the second week. The long consolidation pointed to the clear price down rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2670. We do not exclude the level of 1.2600 retest.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling had lost some positions. Before this the pound was in the great demand. The pound has grown more than any other majors against the US dollar. It is possible that these investors’ sentiment was amid the fact that the "cable" is now the most profitable currency and in the conditions of uncertainty is an attractive asset for the shorts.

The downward trend line is broken upwards. It is a good signal for the further mid-term bearish trend reversal. However, the only thing that indicates the weakening buyers’ force is volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.6180 retest may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.6100, 1.6030.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar at the beginning of the trading day and declined at the second half of the day. As a result, the session within the pair USD/JPY was closed neutrally - on the opening prices. The causes of such a scenario could be events on the stock markets and the US market debts. The Nikkei index has risen nearly by 4.0% after reports that the Japan state pension investment fund plans to increase the share of Japanese equities in its portfolio to 25%, but was not supported by the events on the US and European stock markets, as, in general, by the "Treasuries ", profitability that fell slightly.

The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 107.10.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The frank is strengthening its position amid the general trend of the weakening dollar after the Sent Luis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed should consider a possibility to delay the asset purchase program completion to counter the expected inflation reduction. Then the franc fell again.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.