Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

RBA’s hawkish comments support AUDUSD

The AUDUSD rate is rising on Thursday morning; buyers are testing the resistance area. Find out more in our analysis dated 8 August 2024.

The Australian dollar reached a two-week high, rising to 0.6560. Growth was driven by hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock, who highlighted the central bank’s readiness to raise interest rates further to address inflation.

The RBA maintained the interest rate at 4.35%, noting that a tight monetary policy is necessary to bring inflation down to the 2.00-3.00% target range. The regulator’s chief also ruled out the possibility of lowering rates in the next six months, dispelling investor hopes for a relaxation of RBA monetary policy.

The AUDUSD rate was also bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve might more actively lower interest rates in the coming months amid signs of US economic weakness.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that the AUDUSD pair has completed a corrective wave, reaching 0.6572. The AUDUSD forecast for today, 8 August 2024, indicates a consolidation range forming around 0.6535, potentially extending to 0.6630. After the price reaches this level, another downward wave is expected to start, targeting the local level of 0.6200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish comments have propelled the AUDUSD pair to a two-week high, and market expectations of a potential interest rate cut in December could support further growth. Technical indicators suggest a possible correction in the AUDUSD rate to 0.6630 today. Subsequently, the trend is expected to extend down to 0.6200.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZDUSD continues to regain ground after decline

Despite a reduction in NZD speculative net positions, the NZDUSD pair continues to strengthen. The New Zealand dollar is gaining against the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for today, 9 August 2024.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly report analyses non-commercial traders’ (speculators’) speculative positions in the US futures markets. The information is presented as the difference between traders’ long and short positions on Chicago’s and New York’s futures platforms. The CFTC report is published every Friday at 3:30 pm EST and covers data up to the previous Tuesday.

According to recent data, the number of speculative long positions in the New Zealand dollar has decreased for two consecutive weeks, suggesting that bearish sentiment dominates the market.

Although CFTC Gold’s speculative net positions decreased according to the previous report, long positions continue to increase overall.

NZDUSD technical analysis

The NZDUSD H4 chart shows that the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.5950. The price broke above this range today, 9 August 2024. A growth wave is expected to continue towards 0.6050. This upward movement is considered a correction of the previous downward trend. Once the correction is complete, a new downward phase could begin, aiming for 0.5800.

Limited fundamental data, combined with the NZDUSD technical analysis in today’s NZDUSD forecast, suggests that the pair may continue to correct towards 0.6050. After testing this level, a downward movement could start, targeting 0.5800.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD rises for four days: risk appetite increases

The GBPUSD pair has risen for four consecutive trading days, improving market sentiment. Find out more in our analysis dated 12 August 2024.

The GBPUSD rate rose to 1.2766 on Monday. The market continues its recovery from the local low reached last week.

Investors are assessing the likelihood of a Bank of England interest rate cut soon. Due to the specific nature of UK inflation, the pace of monetary policy easing might be half that of the Federal Reserve.

The BoE will likely announce a 100-billion-pound (127 billion USD) asset reduction in its balance sheet over the 12 months from October 2024 to September 2025. This represents a very gradual pace of winding down stimulus. If the volume is reduced by 100 billion pounds, debt sales will amount to less than 13 billion. The balance sheet reduction will take considerable time.

GBPUSD technical analysis

Analysis for 12 August 2024 indicates that the GBPUSD pair has completed its first downward wave, reaching 1.2666. The market then rose to 1.2771. A consolidation range is expected to develop above this level today. If there is an upward breakout, a correction could extend to 1.2870. Once the correction is complete, a new downward wave might begin, aiming for 1.2640. A breakout below this level would open the potential for a wave towards the local target of 1.2400, aligning with the trend.

The GBPUSD pair is recovering steadily. However, technical indicators in today’s GBPUSD forecast suggest a correction towards 1.2870, followed by a potential decline in the GBPUSD rate to the 1.2640 and 1.2400 levels.

Read more - GBPUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) holds around record highs

XAUUSD price remains elevated. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 13 August 2024.

XAUUSD price declined to 2,462 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday after hitting new peaks.

Investors continue to seek gold as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions, primarily in the Middle East.

In the near term, the market will closely watch statistics, particularly the US Consumer Price Index data scheduled for release on Wednesday. These figures will provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s future actions regarding interest rates.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The XAUUSD H4 chart indicates that the market has established a consolidation range around 2,426.62 and, after breaking above this level, reached the local target of 2,474.44 for the growth wave. The mid-term XAUUSD price forecast has been realised. Today. 13 August 2024, a correction towards 2,426.62 (testing from above) could continue. Once the correction is complete, a new growth wave could develop, targeting 2,488.94.

Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain high. Technical indicators suggest a potential decline in XAUUSD quotes to 2,426.62, followed by a rise to 2,488.94.

Read more - XAUUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD declines further in anticipation of index data

A deterioration in the actual US index data may push the USDCAD pair lower. Find out more in our analysis dated 14 August 2024

The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer sentiment based on a target group survey. The index has gradually declined over the past three months, with the previous reading at 46.97, indicating negative consumer sentiment. Although the forecast for 14 August 2024 based on actual data may be disappointing, it will unlikely have a significant impact on the USDCAD rate.

Today’s USDCAD forecast does not favour the US dollar. The US will release a set of data, including July’s year-over-year and month-over-month consumer price indices, which may aggravate the situation.

The Consumer Price Index reflects changes in consumer goods and services prices and is a key indicator for the direction of purchases and US inflation. Readings below the forecast are considered negative for the US dollar, while those above are considered positive. The forecast suggests that the index may rise 0.2% month-over-month and remain flat at 3.0% year-over-year. Expectations that the estimates will align with actual data are so far low.

A decrease in the indicators may push the USDCAD rate further down. Actual data aligning with the forecast may also cause the US dollar to lose ground against the Canadian dollar.

USDCAD technical analysis

Analysis for 14 August 2024 shows that the USDCAD pair continues its downward momentum towards 1.3696, the first target. The price is expected to reach this target level today. Subsequently, a correction towards 1.3820 could follow. Once the correction is complete, a downward wave could develop, aiming for 1.3636 and potentially continuing towards 1.3500.

A decrease in the actual US index readings will confirm the results of the USDCAD technical analysis. Today’s USDCAD forecast suggests that a downward wave could develop towards the 1.3696, 1.3636, and 1.3500 levels, driven by the dollar’s loss of position.

Read more - USDCAD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZDUSD temporarily strengthens amid signs of stabilisation in the New Zealand economy

The NZDUSD rate rises on Friday after rebounding from the 0.5975 support level. Find out more in our analysis dated 16 August 2024.

Despite the morning’s strengthening of the NZDUSD rate, New Zealand’s manufacturing sector is still facing challenges. Although the BusinessNZ PMI increased to 44.0 points in July from 41.1 in June, it remains significantly below the long-term average of 52.6 points, marking 17 consecutive months of contraction in manufacturing and highlighting serious challenges in the sector.

New Zealand's producer inflation in Q2 2024 was also higher than expected. Prices of production resources rose by 1.4% from the previous quarter mainly due to rising prices for energy and gas supplies. This increases pressure on the industry and may negatively impact the country’s economy as a whole.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr noted that the cash rate could be cut by another 50 basis points by the end of the year as inflation is moving towards the 1-3% target range. According to today’s NZDUSD forecast, this statement will help strengthen the New Zealand dollar as it gives hope for a certain stabilisation of the economic environment in the near term.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the NZDUSD H4 chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.6000 and, breaking above it, reached a local target of 0.6082. There was a technical return to 0.5980 (testing from above) today, 16 August 2024. The growth wave is expected to extend to 0.6115. This growth structure is considered a correction of the previous downward wave. Once the correction is complete, a new downward wave could begin, aiming for (at least) 0.5800.

While expectations of economic stabilisation have temporarily supported the NZDUSD rate, the potential easing of the RBNZ monetary policy may exert pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term. Technical indicators in today’s NZDUSD forecast suggest a correction towards 0.6115, followed by a downward wave towards 0.5800.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD is on the rise: investors bet on Fed’s softness

The EURUSD rate continues its ascent. The primary currency pair is developing a real rally, driven by a relatively soft tone of the US Federal Reserve. Investors hope to find confirmation of this in the last meeting minutes due this Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also expected to deliver a speech on Friday.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a growth structure at 1.1012 and formed a consolidation range. After breaking above the range, the market maintains its upward trajectory, aiming for 1.1042.

The EURUSD pair maintains upward momentum. Technical indicators in today’s EURUSD forecast suggest that the growth wave will be complete at 1.1042, followed by a decline to the 1.0980, 1.0930, and 1.0880 levels.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: the US dollar strengthens again; the yen loses ground

The USDJPY pair is attempting to regain ground after a decline. The Japanese prime minister elections are scheduled for 27 September. Find out more in our analysis dated 20 August 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

The forecast for 20 August 2024 shows that the market has corrected towards 145.20 on the USDJPY H4 chart. This level is considered a minimum for the correction, with a decline to 145.00 being possible.

The FOMC member’s speech, the elections in Japan, and the USDJPY technical analysis in today’s USDJPY forecast suggest a growth wave towards the 150.55 and 156.00 levels.

Read more - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold forecast: XAUUSD is trading above 2,500 USD; the market awaits the Fed’s minutes

XAUUSD price continued its surge on Tuesday, reaching a new annual and all-time high of 2,532 USD. Today, the market’s focus is on the release of the Federal Reserve minutes. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 21 August 2024.

XAUUSD fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are experiencing a strong uptrend, regularly reaching all-time highs. A triangle price pattern has formed on the H4 chart, which could signal a continuation of the XAUUSD price growth, with an approximate target at 2,600 USD per troy ounce

XAUUSD analysis shows that gold continues to rise steadily, reaching a new all-time high of 2,532 USD. The market is focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, which may affect the XAUUSD forecast further.

Read more - XAUUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD reaches a new annual high: the US dollar suffers heavy losses

The EURUSD pair has skyrocketed to levels last seen in December 2023. The US dollar remains under tremendous pressure. Find out more in our analysis dated 22 August 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has broken above the 1.1135 level and completed a growth wave, reaching 1.1173. The EURUSD rate is expected to decline to 1.1135 (testing from above) today, 22 August 2024.

The EURUSD pair is reaching 2024 highs and continues to climb. Technical indicators in today’s EURUSD forecast suggest that the growth wave could extend to 1.1195, marking the completion of growth potential.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: the yen strengthens following the Bank of Japan governor’s speech

The USDJPY pair continues to decline following Kazuo Ueda’s statements on the interest rate hike in Japan. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is considering lowering interest rates. Find out more in our analysis dated 23 August 2024.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the market continues to form a consolidation range above the 145.00 level. This range could extend up to 147.00 and down to 144.44 today, 23 August 2024. A breakout below the range could trigger a downward move towards 142.88.

The Bank of Japan governor’s statement, the upcoming speech by the Fed’s chair, and the USDJPY technical analysis in today’s USDJPY forecast suggest that a consolidation range above 145.00 could persist.

Read more - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD rises amid potential easing of US monetary policy

The GBPUSD rate hit a new two-year high on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at an imminent US interest rate cut.

EURUSD technical analysis

The GBPUSD H4 chart shows that the market has formed a narrow consolidation range around 1.3103 and, breaking above it, reached the growth wave’s target of 1.3220. Nearly the entire growth wave potential has been exhausted.

Powell’s comments on a US interest rate cut and signs of a recovering UK economy propelled the GBPUSD pair to a two-year high.

Read more - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD remains at highs: the market turns against the US dollar

The EURUSD rate has resumed growth following a correction, with the main movements around 1.1168. Concerns about the Middle East have dampened investor optimism about an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has declined to 1.1150 and corrected towards 1.1178. Another corrective movement is possible today, 27 August 2024, aiming for 1.1181.

Although the EURUSD pair returns to an annual high, market sentiment could depend on external factors. Technical indicators in today’s EURUSD forecast suggest a potential decline to 1.1150, possibly continuing to 1.0980.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD remains weak as the market tests lows last seen on 8 March 2024

The USDCAD pair fell to a six-month low, primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar. However, current developments are not particularly favourable for the Canadian dollar either. Find out more in our analysis dated 28 August 2024.

USDCAD technical analysis

The USDCAD H4 chart shows that the market maintains its downward trajectory without a significant correction. The market has formed a consolidation range around 1.3485 and broke below its lower boundary today, 28 August 2024, pushing the USDCAD rate down to 1.3440.

The USDCAD pair fell to a six-month low and is poised for a further decline. Technical indicators in today’s USDCAD forecast suggest that the downward wave could continue to the 1.3366 and 1.3263 levels.

Read more - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD falls to a two-week low: the market assesses risks

The EURUSD pair declined on Friday, supported by robust US macroeconomic data. Read more in our analysis for 30 August 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD quotes have reached a local target at 1.1055. An upward correction to 1.1121 (a test from below) is possible today, 30 August 2024. Following this, a further decline towards 1.1040 is expected, marking the first decline phase.

EURUSD may interrupt its five-week rally and close the week with a decline. Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast suggest a possible correction to 1.1121, followed by a decline to 1.1040.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) is below 2,500 USD, but the trend remains upward

Despite XAUUSD's price falling below 2,500 USD on Monday, growth prospects remain. This week, market participants are closely watching the latest XAUUSD news, particularly focusing on US employment data, which is expected to significantly impact the XAUUSD outlook.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading within an ascending price channel just below 2,500 USD but above the upper boundary of the completed triangle pattern.

Although XAUUSD has fallen below 2,500 USD, there is still potential for growth. This week, market participants will focus on the US employment market data, which could drive further gold price movements.

Read more - XAUUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD analysis: EURUSD falls as market bets on ECB policy easing

The EURUSD pair has experienced a decline for the third consecutive trading day, reflecting investor sentiment towards potential policy easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). With inflation trends supporting this outlook, market participants are increasingly expecting an ECB interest rate cut in September.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has formed a consolidation range around 1.1050 and extended it to 1.1076. The price is expected to decline to 1.1050 and break below the range today, 3 September 2024, expanding the wave towards 1.1025

The EURUSD pair remains under significant selling pressure, with the market's focus on the upcoming ECB meeting.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD rebounds from five-month low: declining oil prices may hurt Canada’s economy

The USDCAD pair has been on an upward trend. The Canadian dollar is pressured by weak forecasts for commodity exports and currency inflows. Discover more in our analysis for 4 September 2024.

USDCAD technical analysis

The USDCAD H4 chart shows that the market has reached the downward wave’s local target of 1.3400. A correction is forming towards the 1.3570 level and is expected to be completed today, 4 September 2024.

The USDCAD pair has strengthened its position. The market took advantage of worsening oil market conditions and supported the US dollar position.

Read more - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD is strengthening amid the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance

The AUDUSD rate is stabilising following a speech by the RBA’s chief. Find out more in our analysis for 5 September 2024.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD H4 chart shows that the market has corrected towards 0.6740. A decline to 0.6700 is expected today, 5 September 2024. A breakout below this level may signal further movement towards the first target of 0.6650.

The AUDUSD rate still has the potential to strengthen thanks to stable foreign trade and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tight monetary policy stance, even amid easing inflation.

Read more - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY under pressure: the Japanese economy is recovering

The USDJPY rate has been falling for the fourth consecutive trading session. Traders are awaiting the US employment report. Find out more in our analysis for 6 September 2024.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the market is forming a new consolidation range around 143.43, extending it to 144.22 and down to 142.84. The price could break below the lower boundary of the range today, 6 September 2024.

Weak US economic data continue to pressure the USDJPY rate, increasing the likelihood of a more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut as early as this month.

Read more - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team