Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Murrey Math Lines 12.06.2024 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has breached the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 7/8 (159.37) level, break above it, and rise to the resistance at 8/8 (162.50). A breakout below the 5/8 (153.12) support level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential decline to 4/8 (150.00).

On M15, a breakout above the upper line of the VoltyChannel would provide an additional signal supporting the price increase.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD quotes are in the overbought area on D1. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 8/8 (1.3671) level and decline to the support at 7/8 (1.3549). Surpassing the +1/8 (1.3793) level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential rise to the +2/8 (1.3916) resistance level.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 13.06.2024 (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD is correcting after rebounding from the upper boundary of the bullish channel. The pair is moving above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the Cloud’s lower boundary at 1.2745 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.2925. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would be an additional signal confirming the increase. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the Cloud’s lower boundary, with the price securing below 1.2715, indicating a further decline to 1.2625.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold is bouncing off the resistance level. The instrument is moving below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the Cloud’s lower boundary at 2340 is expected, followed by a decline to 2230. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would be an additional signal confirming the fall. This scenario could be cancelled by a breakout above the upper boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing above 2355, indicating a further rise to 2395. Conversely, a decline could be confirmed by a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with the price gaining a foothold below 2300.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF is rising after rebounding from the lower boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. The pair is moving inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a sideways trend. A test of the resistance area at 0.8960 is expected, followed by a decline to 0.8795. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would signal the decline. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the upper boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing above 0.9055, indicating a further rise to 0.9145. Conversely, a decline could be confirmed by a breakout below the lower boundary of the Head and Shoulders pattern, with the price establishing itself below 0.8865.

Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Murrey Math Lines 14.06.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent crude oil quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 2/8 (81.25) level, rebound, and fall to the support at 1/8 (78.12). Surpassing the 3/8 (84.38) level could invalidate this scenario, propelling the quotes to the resistance at 4/8 (87.50).

On M15, a breakout of the VoltyChannel lower line will provide an additional signal for a price decline.

S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes and the RSI are in the overbought areas on D1. In this situation, the price is expected to breach the +1/8 (5312.5) level and decline to the 8/8 (5000.0) support level. The scenario could be invalidated by surpassing the +2/8 (5625.0) level, which might reshuffle the Murrey indication, setting new price movement targets.

Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR continues to fall: the US dollar is to blame. Overview for 17.06.2024

The EURUSD position appears weak on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0702.

The EUR faces serious pressure due to the political imbalance in Europe and a rather mixed outlook. The euro-dollar exchange rate has declined by 0.8% over the last week, marking the maximum weekly fall since April and giving a reason for a detailed forecast for EURUSD on 17 June 2024.

The market is speculating on the risks of a budget crisis in the eurozone. This pertains to the situation in France, where the confrontation between the right and left parties is reaching a new level ahead of snap parliamentary elections, with increasing pressure on President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist administration.

All these factors increase the likelihood of implications for the economy in the heart of the eurozone. This situation appears significant and dubious and is unlikely to be resolved soon.

A fall in the euro rate indirectly benefits the US dollar.

Despite a massive sell-off in the French financial markets last week, the European Central Bank does not plan to initiate an emergency purchase of French bonds.

Technical analysis EURUSD

As the analysis for 17 June 2024 shows, EURUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.0450. On the H4 chart, the market formed the first structure of this wave, with a target at 1.0666. Today, a consolidation range is expected to form above this level. With an upward breakout, a correction towards 1.0790 might follow. Once the correction is complete, a new decline structure in the EURUSD exchange rate could start, aiming for 1.0680. A breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline wave towards the local target of 1.0570. With a downward breakout of the range, a decline wave to 1.0570 is possible. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. The market has completed a decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope, with a rise to its upper boundary being expected.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold is correcting, facing pressure from a strong US dollar

Gold prices continue to correct after reaching an all-time high of 2,450 USD per troy ounce. Pressure mostly comes from the strengthening US dollar, which has received support after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The interest rate remained unchanged at 5.5%, and comments indicated that economic activity continues to increase steadily, with job gains remaining high and the unemployment rate low.

Although market participants hoped for a signal from the Federal Reserve about an upcoming interest rate reduction amid slowing US inflation, this did not occur. Analysts anticipate one interest rate cut of 0.25% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, gold has experienced steady growth of approximately 12.5% since the beginning of the year. This rise is driven by fundamental factors: the US treasury bond market is gradually losing its share as the main global reserve asset, with world central banks partially selling US treasury bonds and purchasing gold instead.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, gold quotes are experiencing a correction within a descending price channel after reaching a high of 2,450 in May. The price is currently hovering near the 2,320 mark, with a Triangle technical pattern forming on the chart. The direction of the price movement out of this pattern may indicate the near term.

According to the forecast, if the quotes exit the Triangle pattern upwards and secure above 2,340, this will open the potential for growth towards the 2,388 resistance level. If the price of gold declines, dropping below the lower line of this pattern, a fall might continue towards a strong support area between 2,285 and 2,277.

Read more - Gold

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Will the ECB meeting help strengthen the euro?

The US dollar continues to lose ground against the euro on Wednesday. The European Central Bank meeting may bring about some changes.

Today’s European Central Bank meeting on non-monetary policy issues may change the EURUSD rate. In anticipation of the ECB’s monthly and meeting reports, the euro may slightly strengthen against the US dollar.

Wednesday is rich in news with a weak economic effect, and this news typically does not significantly impact the quotes individually. The eurozone and US news may positively affect the EURUSD forecast, but this influence will be short-lived. When the news for 19 June 2024 is released, the EURUSD pair may slightly strengthen before further losing ground.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD 4Н chart analysis for 19 June 2024 shows a corrective wave towards 1.0760. A decline structure is expected to start, aiming for 1.0711. A new consolidation range might practically develop within these levels. With an upward breakout of the range, a correction might continue towards 1.0800. Subsequently, the EURUSD price could decline to 1.0660. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline wave directly towards 1.0660, potentially continuing towards the local target of 1.0570.

This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD pair. The market has received a downward rebound from the Envelope centre. If the market gains a foothold above the 1.0760 level, the corrective wave might continue towards the Envelope’s upper boundary at 1.0800. If the market fails to secure above the 1.0760 level, the wave could expand towards 1.0630, potentially continuing to 1.0570, with another touch of the Envelope’s lower boundary.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR is on standby, awaiting news

The leading currency pair is consolidating. Investors are conserving energy ahead of a new batch of statistics and external information.

The euro against the US dollar is stable around the 1.0738 mark on Thursday. The EURUSD pair has been rising for three consecutive days, but current market conditions have set the stage for a temporary pause.

Yesterday, no significant statistics were published due to the Juneteenth holiday in the US and a quiet day in the eurozone. However, the macroeconomic calendar is set to liven up today. Germany will present data on the Producer Price Index for May, where some improvement in numbers is expected. Subsequently, the US will release reports on the number of building permits issued in May and the number of new housing starts. Both are expected to show a slight increase.

The US will also present fresh weekly data on the number of initial unemployment claims. The figure has likely improved compared to last week’s parameters and is expected to be 235,000 compared to the previous 242,000.

Overall, the currency market looks calm. The excitement about the Federal Reserve interest rates discussion has somewhat subsided, allowing major currencies to stabilise.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range is forming around the 1.0735 level, a crucial development for today’s EURUSD forecast. An upward breakout of the range will open the potential for a further correction towards 1.0800. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave might develop, aiming for 1.0680. With a downward breakout, the trend could continue towards 1.0630. If this level also breaks, this will open the potential for a decline wave towards the local target of 1.0570.

This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD rate. The market has received support at the 1.0724 level and is attempting to secure above the Envelope’s centre. Practically, a further rise to the Envelope’s upper boundary could follow. After the price tests this boundary, a decline wave is expected to start, aiming for the Envelope’s lower boundary.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team