Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD: the pair attempts an upside reversal

USDCAD has halted its decline and is attempting to reverse higher, having received buyer support near the 1.3730 area. Details — in our analysis for 22 December 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Retail sales in Canada rose by 1.2% in November
• Current trend: an upward correction is observed
• USDCAD forecast for 22 December 2025: 1.3730 and 1.3870

Fundamental analysis

According to data released on Friday, retail sales in Canada increased by 1.2% month-on-month in November 2025. This marked the strongest growth in five months, rebounding after a 0.2% decline in October.

Meanwhile, oil prices are attempting to recover as markets assess the risk of additional U.S. sanctions against Russia and potential supply disruptions linked to the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers. These factors provide support for Canadian oil exporters.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

New XAUUSD high: U.S. macro data weighs on the dollar

The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against gold, with XAUUSD setting another record after testing the 4,497 USD level. Details — in our analysis for 23 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• U.S. GDP Q3: previous value — 3.8%, forecast — 3.2%
• U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index: previous value — 88.7, forecast — 83.4
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 December 2025: 4,550 or 4,440

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price outlook shows that gold continues its upward trend. At this stage, prices have updated another all-time high and are trading around the 4,480 USD per ounce level.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated based on final output without including the cost of raw materials.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

BoE interest rate and weak USD: triggers for GBPUSD growth

Rising unemployment in the US is putting pressure on the USD. Against this backdrop, GBPUSD may continue to rise toward the 1.3590 area. Details — in our analysis for 24 December 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Primary Jobless Claims in the US: previous value — 224K, forecast — 227K
• Current trend: moving upwards
• GBPUSD forecast for 24 December 2025: 1.3590 and 1.3472

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD forecast for December 17, 2025 is favorable for the British pound, as prices have strong potential for further growth following a minor correction.

US Initial Jobless Claims show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator reflects labor market conditions, and an increase signals rising unemployment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US Tech forecast: the index continues its recovery

The US Tech index continues to rise toward the resistance level with the potential to reverse the trend. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 214K
• Market impact: the data has a moderately negative impact on the technology sector

Fundamental analysis

Initial Jobless Claims measure how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week. This is one of the most timely indicators of labor market conditions: the lower the reading, the more stable employment is and the fewer signs there are of economic deterioration. Claims came in at 214K, compared with a forecast of 224K and the previous reading of 224K. In other words, the figure was better than expected and declined from the prior week. This signals that the labor market remains resilient: companies are generally not accelerating layoffs, and consumer demand is typically supported by more stable household incomes.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY returns to support near 156.00

USDJPY is declining, slipping into the area around 156.00 amid concerns over possible interventions by the Bank of Japan. Details — in our analysis for 29 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the yen strengthens amid potential Bank of Japan interventions
• Current trend: a downward correction is observed
• USDJPY forecast for 29 December 2025: 155.55 or 157.00

Fundamental analysis

A brief summary of the December Bank of Japan meeting showed that policymakers discussed further monetary policy tightening even after last month’s rate hike to a multi-year high.

Several committee members argued that policy remains far from neutral in real terms and supported a gradual rate increase to stay ahead of inflation risks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index has updated its all-time high

The US 500 has updated its all-time high and is now correcting. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US Durable Goods Orders in November fell by 2.2%
• Market impact: the data has a moderately negative impact on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The indicator declined by -2.2% month-on-month, which came in worse than the forecast of -1.5% and significantly weaker than the previous reading of +0.7%. This dynamic points to cooling demand for capital-intensive goods and may signal a slowdown in corporate investment plans in the coming months. For the US equity market, this usually acts as a moderately negative signal, primarily for sectors that depend on the industrial cycle and business investment. Investors may factor in more restrained revenue growth for industrial companies and equipment suppliers, which reduces overall optimism.

For the US 500 index, the effect is generally constraining. On the one hand, weaker orders worsen expectations for economic growth and profits among cyclical companies, putting pressure on the index. On the other hand, softer data may ease inflation concerns and support expectations of a more accommodative central bank policy, which partially offsets the negative impact.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) at a new peak: higher levels ahead

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have tested 4,600 USD, with the market relying on a pool of political risks. Find more details in our analysis for 12 January 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices surged to a new high
• A broad spectrum of geopolitical risks supports demand for safe-haven assets
• US statistics are also bolstering gold

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose by more than 1% on Monday and exceeded 4,601 USD per ounce, reaching a new all-time high once again. The rally was driven by rising geopolitical risks and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the US.

On Sunday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned the US and Israel about the consequences of possible intervention following threats of military strikes by President Donald Trump. The statements came amid mass protests in Iran, which reportedly resulted in hundreds of deaths.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY surges, reaching a new yearly high

The USDJPY rate is showing strong upward momentum, rising to the 159.00 area amid political instability in Japan. Find out more in our analysis for 13 January 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s service sector index decreased to 48.6 in December 2025 from 48.7 a month earlier
• Current trend: trending upwards
• USDJPY forecast for 13 January 2026: 160.00 or 157.75

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen fell to around 159 per dollar, reaching its weakest levels since 2024 amid rising political uncertainty fuelled by speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may dissolve parliament as early as next month.

Takaichi is expected to leverage her strong public support to push through expansionary fiscal policy. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that she and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared concerns over the ‘one-sided depreciation’ of the yen following a bilateral meeting held on the sidelines of a multilateral gathering of finance ministers earlier this week.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Pound at the start of a new rally: what lies ahead for GBPUSD on 14 January 2026

The GBPUSD forecast for today favours the GBP, with quotes likely to regain ground and test the 1.3510 level. Find out more in our analysis for 14 January 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• US retail sales: previously at 0.4%, projected at 0.4%
• Speech by the Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden
• GBPUSD forecast for 14 January 2026: 1.3510 and 1.3400

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD forecast for today, 14 January 2026, is favourable for the pound, with quotes having every chance for further growth after a minor correction.

Today, a speech by Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Markets and Banking, will take place. In his remarks, he may make statements or provide hints regarding the Bank of England’s next steps in monetary policy. In the event of an interest rate hike or the maintenance of a hawkish monetary policy stance, the British pound may strengthen

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index has updated its all-time high

The JP 225 stock index has continued its upward momentum. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s current account reached 3.67 trillion JPY
• Market impact: the effect for the Japanese equity market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s current account balance exceeded expectations, posting a surplus of 3.674 trillion JPY, above the forecast of 3.594 trillion JPY and the previous reading of 2.834 trillion JPY. For the equity market, this primarily signals a stronger external position and higher net income inflows from abroad, which fundamentally supports economic resilience and reduces sensitivity to external shocks. For Japanese equities, the impact of a potentially stronger yen is mixed. A stronger yen reduces the value of overseas revenues when converted into yen and may pressure the profits of export-oriented companies, while also weakening their price competitiveness in global markets. At the same time, yen appreciation lowers the cost of imported energy and raw materials.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD at a crossroads: decline or growth ahead

The euro is once again attempting to recover positions against the USD, with EURUSD quotes trading near the 1.1600 level. Discover more in our analysis for 16 January 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at -0.2%, projected at 0.0%
• The ECB may raise the interest rate this month
• EURUSD forecast for 16 January 2026: 1.1635 and 1.1565

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the euro is forming a corrective wave and is trading near the 1.1660 level.

The ECB shows interest in strengthening the European currency and may continue tightening monetary policy this month to support the euro.

The situation with the dollar currently remains uncertain due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Unlike the ECB, the Federal Reserve may decide to ease monetary policy and cut rates, which could weaken the dollar and provide an impulse for EURUSD growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD will continue to rise, but after a pause

The USDCAD pair halted at 1.3901, with the market monitoring political developments and oil price fluctuations. Find out more in our analysis for 19 January 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Current mood: trade-related news and US policy weigh on the CAD, while oil prices provide support
• Market focus: the pair’s growth has slowed, but the market is not yet preparing for a reversal
• USDCAD forecast for 19 January 2026: 1.3930

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate declined to 1.3901 on Monday. Previously, the CAD fell to a six-week low against the US dollar amid news of a trade agreement between Canada and China, as well as expectations surrounding the selection of the next chair of the US Federal Reserve.

Additional pressure on the Canadian dollar came from comments by US President Donald Trump, who publicly supported his economic adviser Kevin Hassett. Trump stated that he would like to keep him in his current role. The market interpreted this as a reduced probability of Hassett, considered one of the most dovish candidates, being appointed as Fed chair. This supported the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Rising uncertainty in global markets supports XAUUSD

XAUUSD prices continue to rise amid escalating geopolitical tensions around Greenland, currently trading at 4,710 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 January 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Demand for safe-haven assets strengthened amid the escalation of the situation around Greenland
• Investors fear the start of a large-scale trade confrontation between the US and Europe
• Geopolitical risks continue to rise, worsening expectations for global economic growth

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the second consecutive trading session. Buyers confidently overcame the key resistance level at 4,635 USD, which previously restrained the bullish momentum. Gold receives sustained support due to growing demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions around Greenland.

The market reacts to increased pressure from US President Donald Trump, who once again asserts claims over Greenland. Investors fear that such rhetoric may trigger a large-scale trade confrontation between the US and Europe. Analysts emphasise that the current trade tensions differ in nature from last year’s tariff conflicts; however, the level of uncertainty for the global economy remains elevated.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY continues to rise: what stands behind the strong dollar and weak yen?

The USDJPY pair may continue its uptrend after a correction, with quotes currently located near the 158.10 level. Discover more in our analysis for 21 January 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Investors await the BoJ interest rate decision
• The Fed may take steps to strengthen the USD
• USDJPY forecast for 21 January 2026: 159.30

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 21 January 2026 appears optimistic for the USD, with the USDJPY pair trading near the 158.10 level after forming a corrective wave.

The USDJPY forecast for today takes into account that the USDJPY pair may continue its uptrend, supported by the Fed’s tight monetary policy and yen weakness. Further fluctuations remain possible within the current volatility, but the probability of a continued uptrend persists unless changes occur in BoJ policy or new economic data emerge.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent on the rise: declining oil inventories and US tariffs support growth

After another upward wave, Brent prices are forming a correction and trading near the 64.40 USD level. Find out more in our analysis for 22 January 2026.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Weekly US crude oil inventories according to the American Petroleum Institute (API): previously at 5.270 million, currently at 3.040 million barrels
• US crude oil stocks change: previously at 3.391 million, projected at -1.000 million
• Brent forecast for 22 January 2026: 66.00

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 22 January 2026, takes into account that Brent prices are forming an upward wave and trading near 64.40 USD per barrel.

According to the API, weekly US crude oil inventories declined to 3.040 million barrels in the latest reporting period, down from the previous value of 5.270 million. The reduction in inventories increased demand and supported oil prices, with quotes continuing to rise with corrections since 16 December 2025.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US Tech forecast: the index enters a sideways trend

The US Tech index failed to renew its all-time high and has moved into a sideways range. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US core PCE price index increased to 2.8% year-on-year
• Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the technology sector

Fundamental analysis

The core PCE price index came in at 2.8% year-on-year, fully in line with market expectations, but accelerated compared with the previous reading of 2.7%. Since the PCE is the Federal Reserve’s key gauge of inflation pressure, the fact that inflation has picked up relative to the prior month is perceived as a moderately negative signal for equities. It increases the likelihood of a more cautious approach to monetary easing and supports the scenario of interest rates remaining relatively high for longer.

For the US equity market as a whole, the release can be described as neutral in terms of the headline figure, but slightly negative in trend direction, as an acceleration in core inflation, even by 0.1 percentage point, reduces investor confidence in a rapid decline in borrowing costs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index tested support, but the uptrend remains intact

The DE 40 stock index has completed its correction and is ready to resume growth. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 59.6 in December
• Market impact: the data creates a positive backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 59.6 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50.0 and improving markedly from 45.8 previously. For equity markets, this is primarily a positive signal, as the ZEW index is a leading indicator of sentiment and reflects improving expectations among professional analysts regarding economic dynamics in the coming months

For the DE 40 index, the effect is typically more pronounced than for the broader market, as the index has a high weighting of global industrial and export-oriented companies whose performance is strongly linked to growth and order expectations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index continues to rise and may change trend

The US 500 is recovering but remains in a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US services PMI for December came in at 52.5
• Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The services PMI index reflects how companies assess current business conditions, including demand, order volumes, employment, and overall activity dynamics. The 50 level separates expansion from contraction, so a reading of 52.5 indicates that the US services sector continues to expand.

For the US 500 index, this suggests that strong upward momentum from this release alone is unlikely, and the baseline reaction is closer to neutral or slightly negative if the market was expecting a stronger reading ahead of the publication. If market participants conclude that growth in services is sustainable and inflationary pressures may persist, bond yields could rise, which would typically have a restraining effect on the US 500.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Pound poised for growth: what awaits GBPUSD after the Fed meeting

The British pound continues to strengthen against the US dollar, and amid expectations of the Fed’s interest rate decision, the GBPUSD rate may rise towards the 1.3920 level. Discover more in our analysis for 28 January 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Federal Reserve interest rate decision: previous value – 3.75%, projected at 3.75%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• GBPUSD forecast for 28 January 2026: 1.3920

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD forecast for today, 28 January 2026, remains favourable for the pound, as prices still have strong potential for further growth after a minor correction.

Today, the Federal Reserve will hold its meeting and announce its interest rate decision. The current rate stands at 3.75%. Considering recent comments from Fed officials, US economic data, and prevailing market sentiment, there is a high probability that the rate will remain unchanged. This, in turn, could slightly weaken the US dollar, which aligns with the preferences of the US president. A weaker dollar is beneficial for President Donald Trump, as it supports stronger competitiveness against Chinese manufacturers.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index approaches resistance

The JP 225 stock index may break above the resistance level and reach a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the Bank of Japan kept the policy rate at 0.75%
• Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep the rate at 0.75%, combined with an upward revision of economic growth and inflation forecasts, should be interpreted as a more hawkish signal than the rate level itself. Improved macroeconomic expectations from the regulator increase the likelihood of further rate hikes and, accordingly, strengthen the influence of rate expectations on the equity market in the current period.

Given the JP 225 index’s sensitivity to yen dynamics and its significant share of large exporters, the combination of higher growth and inflation forecasts with a clear hint of further rate hikes increases the likelihood of short-term pressure on the index.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team