Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) pulls back after strong rally

XAUUSD prices declined to around 4,100 USD following last week’s sharp rally, when a new all-time high at 4,380 USD was reached. Find more details in our analysis for 24 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: investors await the outcome of US-China trade talks on tariffs
• Current trend: moderately correcting
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 October 2025: 4,380 or 4,000

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes fell by more than 5% this week, marking the largest intraday drop in five years. The sell-off coincided with significant outflows from gold-backed ETFs, which posted their largest one-day decline in assets in five months.

Nevertheless, gold remains up approximately 55% year-to-date, supported by ongoing trade tensions, with trade talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping taking centre stage next week. Geopolitical risks remain elevated following the new US sanctions on Russia, aimed at pressuring Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index slightly recovered, but the decline continues

The DE 40 stock index has partially rebounded from its recent losses, but the overall trend remains bearish. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 in October 2025
• Market impact: the data creates a mixed backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s manufacturing PMI for October came in at 49.6 points, slightly above both the consensus forecast of 49.5 and the previous reading of 49.5. The figure indicates that the industrial sector remains in contraction, but with signs of gradual stabilisation near the neutral threshold. For the equity market, this is a moderately positive signal in terms of expectations: the slower pace of decline in manufacturing supports the valuation of future cash flows in cyclical sectors, reduces the risk of margin erosion from underutilised capacity, and may help narrow discounts on industrial assets. However, since the indicator remains below 50, it continues to reflect weakness in domestic and external demand, limiting the upside potential and making it dependent on confirmation of improvement in subsequent data releases.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent forced to reassess its outlook

Brent crude prices have slipped to 65.86 USD per barrel as the market reacts swiftly to changing headlines and shifting sentiment. Details — in our analysis for 28 October 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent continues to decline and may enter a sideways range.
• Rapid changes in news flow are forcing investors to reassess the outlook.
• Brent forecast for 28 October 2025: 64.00 and 63.50.

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil fell for the third consecutive session, dropping to 64.86 USD per barrel amid growing concerns of oversupply following signals from OPEC+ about a potential output increase.

According to sources, at the upcoming Sunday meeting, members of the alliance are expected to discuss a moderate production hike for December, with Saudi Arabia reportedly pushing to regain lost market share.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY will need strength ahead of central bank meetings

The USDJPY pair is consolidating around 151.98 midweek as traders shift their focus towards upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan decisions. Discover more in our analysis for 29 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is saving its strength ahead of key policy meetings from the Fed and the BoJ
• Yen weakness continues to support Japan’s export-oriented sectors
• USDJPY forecast for 29 October 2025: 151.50–152.50

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate edged up to 151.98 on Wednesday as investors await the Bank of Japan’s meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Officials are set to discuss conditions for a potential resumption of the rate-hike cycle, as tariff-related risks gradually ease, although inflationary pressures still complicate the policy outlook.

Earlier, the yen strengthened by about 0.5% following a meeting between Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who urged Japan to pursue a sound monetary policy. Markets interpreted his remarks as a subtle criticism of Japan’s slow pace in tightening monetary conditions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD at a crossroads: Fed split and EU CPI data to decide the course

Amid expectations of fundamental data from the US and the EU, the EURUSD rate may rise towards 1.1715. Discover more in our analysis for 30 October 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 2.0%, projected at 2.0%
• Publication of FOMC minutes
• EURUSD forecast for 30 October 2025: 1.1715

Fundamental analysis

The eurozone CPI reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess purchasing trends and the level of stagnation in the economy. A stronger-than-expected indicator would support the euro.

The EURUSD forecast for 20 August 2025 suggests that the index may remain flat at 2.0%. However, if the actual figure exceeds the forecast, it could affect the EURUSD rate and strengthen the euro.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD): volatility eases, but demand persists

Gold (XAUUSD) remains volatile around 4,010 USD. While risk sentiment has improved, investor interest in the precious metal persists. Find more details in our analysis for 31 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Reduced geopolitical risk is weighing on gold (XAUUSD)
• October ends on a positive note, with gold up roughly 50% year-to-date
• XAUUSD forecast for 31 October 2025: 4,045

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have retreated to around 4,010 USD per troy ounce, marking the second consecutive week of losses. The metal remains under pressure due to shifting expectations around the timing of future Federal Reserve rate cuts and news of the US-China trade truce.

The two countries reached a one-year agreement on rare earth metals and strategic resources. Donald Trump announced a 10% reduction in tariffs on fentanyl-related products, while Beijing pledged to curb mining output and resume imports of US soybeans. However, the long-term stability of the deal remains uncertain.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD in consolidation, waiting for fresh signals

The USDCAD pair gained 0.7% in October, as markets remain tense amid shifting monetary and political factors. Discover more in our analysis for 3 November 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the USDCAD pair strengthened following weak Canadian GDP data
• Current trend: the market is consolidating amid a lack of fresh catalysts
• USDCAD forecast for 3 November 2025: 1.3977 or 1.4035

Fundamental analysis

The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar after data showed an unexpected GDP contraction of 0.3% in August. The USDCAD pair is hovering around 1.4020, trading within the 1.3980–1.4035 range. In October, the CAD lost 0.7%, marking its second consecutive monthly decline, despite signals from the Bank of Canada suggesting that the easing cycle may be nearing its end.

Last Wednesday, the BoC lowered rates for the fourth time this year and noted that further reductions were highly unlikely. The Canadian dollar briefly strengthened on the statement, but the effect quickly faded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks. Adding to the pressure, Canada’s GDP fell by 0.3% in August following a revised 0.3% increase in July, while markets expected it to remain flat. Preliminary estimates point to a 0.1% rebound in September, which could help avoid a recession in Q3.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 30 forecast: the index enters a correction, but the uptrend remains intact

The uptrend in the US 30 index remains strong, suggesting the potential for another all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US ISM manufacturing prices for October came in at 58.0
• Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The ongoing US government shutdown has now become the longest in history after the Senate once again failed to pass a funding bill yesterday. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing prices index came in at 58.0, below the forecast of 62.4 and the previous reading of 61.9. This means that prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials and components are still rising (as the index remains above 50.0), but the pace of growth has slowed significantly and fallen short of expectations. This is effectively a disinflationary signal from the manufacturing sector.

For the US 30 index, the data is moderately positive. Large industrial companies benefit from easing cost pressures and potentially lower discount rates. However, the short-term reaction will depend on whether investors interpret the data as primarily disinflationary or as a sign of weaker end demand.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index corrected by more than 6%

The JP 225 stock index is trading in an uptrend, although volatility has increased significantly. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the Bank of Japan set the interest rate at 0.50% per annum
• Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is generally positive

Fundamental analysis

The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, fully matching the forecast and previous level, means there was no monetary surprise for the market. For Japanese stock market participants, this signals that accommodative financial conditions will continue: borrowing costs for corporations and households remain low, and the equity risk premium relative to bonds remains attractive.

For the JP 225 index, which includes a significant share of exporters, industrial companies and financial institutions, the overall effect of the decision appears moderately positive. The absence of surprises reduces short-term volatility and reinforces the base scenario for valuation models: stable monetary policy, controlled bond yields and favourable conditions for corporate financing. Unless the accompanying BoJ comments point to a faster pace of tightening in the coming quarters, the JP 225 index will likely maintain its upward momentum.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD loses bullish momentum after two days of growth

The EURUSD rate remains under pressure after a short-term rise, as signs of a weakening US labour market have strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut. The current price is 1.1535. Discover more in our analysis for 7 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US companies cut 153,000 jobs in October
• The US dollar remains under pressure amid signs of a cooling labour market
• EURUSD forecast for 7 November 2025: 1.1470

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after two days of growth. Buyers faced strong resistance around 1.1550, which limited the upward momentum. Despite recovery attempts, the US dollar remains under pressure, as labour market weakness increases expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

The likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December rose to 66.9%, up from 62% the day before, reflecting growing expectations of policy easing.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY rally continues: the yen remains under pressure

The USDJPY pair strengthened to a nine-month high of 154.03 as investors await a new economic stimulus package. Find more details in our analysis for 10 November 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the USDJPY pair rose to a nine-month high amid an uncertain rate outlook
• Current trend: the market expects Japan’s cabinet to announce an economic stimulus package
• USDJPY forecast for 10 November 2025: 154.50

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate climbed to 154.03, nearing a nine-month peak. The move comes amid expectations of a large-scale stimulus package from Japan’s new government and the continuation of a loose monetary policy. According to a draft plan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet intends to urge the Bank of Japan to give equal weight to economic growth and price stability.

The final version of the package, due to be approved on 21 November, includes tax incentives and investment support for 17 key industries.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index completed its correction

The US 500 recovered after a decline. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: ISM non-manufacturing employment in the US came in at 48.2 in October
• Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index stood at 48.2 points, compared with the forecast of 47.6 and the previous reading of 47.2. Although the indicator remains below the neutral 50.0 mark, formally signalling contraction in the services sector’s employment, its uptrend suggests gradual improvement. For the US stock market, this indicates that the pressure on the labour market from the services sector is easing: the rate of job reduction is slowing, which lowers the likelihood of a sharp macroeconomic downturn or a hard-recession scenario.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD holds steady above 1.3100

The GBPUSD rate consolidated above 1.3100 despite rising unemployment in the UK. Discover more in our analysis for 12 November 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: UK unemployment rose to 5.0% in September
• Current trend: correcting upwards
• GBPUSD forecast for 12 November 2025: 1.3100 and 1.3250

Fundamental analysis

Weaker-than-expected UK labour market data strengthened expectations of a Bank of England rate cut next month. Regular wage growth slowed to 4.6% in Q3, while unemployment rose to 5.0%, exceeding the forecast of 4.9%.

Last week, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged but indicated that a rate cut in December would depend on how strong domestic inflationary pressure remains. The market is now awaiting the UK Q3 GDP figures, scheduled for release on Thursday.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index may enter a sideways channel

The JP 225 stock index is trading within an uptrend, although it is currently undergoing a correction. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s current account totalled 4.483 trillion JPY
• Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is mostly positive

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s current account surplus reached 4.483 trillion JPY, well above both the forecast of 2.468 trillion JPY and the previous value of 3.701 trillion JPY. This indicates that the inflow of foreign income – exports minus imports plus overseas investment returns – was stronger than expected. This is a positive sign for the economy: the external balance remains stable, and the country earns more foreign revenue and investment income.

For the JP 225 index, however, the effect is mixed. A strong surplus can support the yen, and if the currency strengthens, exporters’ profits converted from USD or EUR into JPY will shrink, creating a short-term headwind for automakers, electronics, and industrial machinery producers. On the other hand, a stronger yen makes imported energy and raw materials cheaper, improving margins for domestic-oriented companies.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) prepares to break above its highs

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have resumed growth, reaching 4,190 USD. Further highs remain possible. Find more details in our analysis for 14 November 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) appears strong after a brief correction
• Demand for safe-haven assets will keep gold supported
• XAUUSD forecast for 14 November 2025: 4,245

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices climbed back to 4,190 USD per ounce on Friday after an earlier attempt to retest three-week highs. The market reversed amid a broad asset sell-off following the US government’s reopening.

The rally at the start of the week was driven by expectations that official data, delayed due to the shutdown, would reveal labour market weakness, reinforcing the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, as Treasury yields rose, demand for non-yielding assets weakened, prompting some investors to take profits. Comments from Federal Reserve officials also cooled expectations, as most emphasised that a December rate cut is not guaranteed.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD declines: everyone awaits US data

The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1594 as the market awaits a flood of key US statistics. Discover more in our analysis for 17 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the EURUSD pair is correcting after last week’s active movements
• Current trend: the market awaits macroeconomic data delayed due to the US government shutdown
• EURUSD forecast for 17 November 2025: 1.1561

Fundamental analysis

On Monday, the EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1594 as the US dollar gradually recovers from last week’s losses. Investors are preparing for a large block of US data, the publication of which was postponed due to the government shutdown and will now be key to understanding the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

The main event is the September labour market report, due on Thursday. In addition, the week will feature the S&P Global PMI figures, existing home sales data, the NAHB confidence index, and the ADP employment estimate.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index corrects after resuming the uptrend

The DE 40 stock index has rebounded from the lower boundary of the medium-term sideways channel and has entered a new correction phase. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 38.5
• Market impact: the data creates an ambiguous background for the German stock market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index reached 38.5 points in November, below both the forecast of 41.0 and the previous value of 39.3. This indicates that analysts and major institutional investors remain optimistic overall, as the index is still well above zero, meaning that the majority of market participants expect an improvement in the economic situation over the coming months. However, the decline from the previous month and weaker-than-expected figures suggest that optimism has faded slightly.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY confidently holds above 155.00

The USDJPY rate is rising, having consolidated above 155.00. Today, the market focuses on the minutes of the latest US Fed meeting. Find out more in our analysis for 19 November 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the minutes of the October Federal Reserve meeting will be published today
• Current trend: upward momentum
• USDJPY forecast for 19 November 2025: 156.00 or 154.00

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, the Japanese government proposed an additional budget exceeding 25 trillion yen to finance Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic stimulus program – a figure far above last year’s supplementary budget of 13.9 trillion yen.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda informed the prime minister that the central bank is gradually raising rates to maintain inflation at 2% while supporting stable growth. Ueda also told reporters that the prime minister did not make any specific requests regarding monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index forms a sideways channel

The JP 225 stock index corrected towards the support level, but the global trend remains upward. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s GDP in Q3 2025 decreased by 1.8%
• Market impact: moderately negative for the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s annualised GDP indicator showed a decline of -1.8% versus the forecast of -2.5% and the previous growth of 2.3%. This means the economy shifted from expansion to contraction, although the downturn turned out to be less severe than analysts expected. Formally, this still signals cooling: companies on average produce and sell less than a year ago, and both domestic and external demand weakened. Such data is generally negative for the Japanese stock market because a weaker economy usually implies cautious consumer and business behaviour, slower investment activity, and pressure on company revenues, especially those focused on the domestic market.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD enters a correction amid USD strength

The AUDUSD rate dipped to the 0.6440 support level amid USD strengthening following US labour market statistics. Discover more in our analysis for 21 November 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US dollar received support from the Nonfarm Payrolls data
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• AUDUSD forecast for 21 November 2025: 0.6400 or 0.6500

Fundamental analysis

The Australian dollar came under pressure after the release of US labour market data for September. Despite an increase in the US unemployment rate to 4.4%, Nonfarm Payrolls showed solid growth of 119 thousand. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve will pause and avoid cutting rates in December.

Annual wage growth in Australia remained stable at 3.4% in Q3, in line with expectations and highlighting the underlying strength of the labour market. Markets currently price in only a 40% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia by May next year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team