Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:50 12.03.2018

The price is consolidating between the Moving Averages. At the same time, there's a bullish "Hammer", so the pair is likely going to test the next resistance area in the short term.

There's an "Engulfing" pattern, which has been formed on the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. In this case, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" anytime soon.

More:
https://goo.gl/bchd62

 

[riki143]

WEEKLY FOREX OUTLOOK: MAR. 12-16
13:04 12.03.2018

More:
https://goo.gl/He8Fkr

US jobs growth was higher than expected in February, but wage inflation disappointed. As a result, traders doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise rates 4 times this year. More likely there will be just 3 rate hikes. The main conclusion is that for now there are few reasons to buy the USD.

Another important result of the last week was an improvement in risk sentiment. It happened as concerns about global trade wars and North Korea declined.

These factors, as well as the optimistic Bank of Japan, helped USD/JPY to recover to 107.00. The pair closed above resistance line since the start of January, so it has a chance to visit 108.00.

EUR/USD failed to rise above 1.2450 and was rejected to 1.23 area as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that the bank is in no hurry to reduce the monetary stimulus. This will make the euro’s life more difficult.

GBP/USD is inside a descending triangle. More active trading will start when the pound gets out of it: wither above 1.3900 or below 1.3750. There’s no progress in Brexit talks yet, although British economic figures were good.

Canadian dollar got a positive boost. USD/CAD has a good chance to slide to 1.2750/1.2700.

Economic calendar

This week the US will publish several important data blocks.

The most important event for the pound will be the spring statement of Finance Minister Philip Hammond on Tuesday. It will contain important info about the UK economy.

We’ll hear from central bank leaders – Bank of Canada’s governor will speak on Tuesday, while the ECB president – on Wednesday.

All in all, there are not so many big events this week, so the market will be driven by primarily by the risk appetite.

 

[riki143]

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[riki143]

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[riki143]

AUD/USD Daily Analytics
07:46 13.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7850; resistance – 0.7910

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7850; SL — 0.7830; TP1 — 0.7910; TP2 — 0.7940.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising lines; the prices are above the support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://goo.gl/NRNKnd

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
07:48 13.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 106.25; resistance – 107.00.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 106.60; SL — 106.40; TP1 — 107.40; TP2 — 107.80.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the market is supported by Kijun-sen and the prices rising to Senkou Span B.

More:
https://goo.gl/oyq6ah

 

[riki143]

XAU/USD Daily Analytics
08:01 13.03.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 1332

SL 1317

TP1 1362 TP2 1385 TP3 1400

On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls are trying to keep the pair inside the uptrend channel and don’t lose hope for reaching 127.2% and 161.8% targets of AB=CD. On the other hand, a break below $1302 will increase the risk of correction to 88.6% of the “Bat” pattern.

On H1, the “Shark” pattern is transforming into 5-0. A successful test of resistance at 1331-1332 will allow bulls to make another step towards the uptrend’s resumption.

More:
https://goo.gl/3Fq6Hj

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD Daily Analytics
09:13 13.03.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 1.2710 SL 1.2655 TP1 1.2810 TP2 1.2910 TP3 1.3100

BUY 1.2960 SL 1.2905 TP1 1.3060 TP2 1.3100

On the daily chart of USD/CAD, the “Shark” is transforming into 5-0. Pullbacks from 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the wave CD are usually used for formation of long positions. One of the bullish targets may lie at 127.2% of AB=CD pattern.

On H1, USD/CAD keeps forming “Spike and reversal with acceleration”. The necessary condition for the uptrend’s resumption is a break above resistance at 1.2960.

More:
https://goo.gl/MCw3F4

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
11:32 13.03.2018

The main trend is still bullish, but there's a developing "Pennant", so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2275 - 1.2234. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be a moment for another upward price movement.

The pair is moving up and down in a range of the possible "Pennant" pattern, which hasn't been finished yet. So, the price is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2345 - 1.2364, which could be a departure point for a decline.

More:
https://goo.gl/vDC9tj

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
11:34 13.03.2018

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.3928, so there's a "V-Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.3840. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level forms afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3928.

There's a "Double Top" pattern, but the pair found support at 1.3876, so we could have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.3918 - 1.3928. These levels could be a starting point for another decline.

More:
https://goo.gl/CJUz9V

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
11:45 13.03.2018

The market is consolidating along the Moving Averages. Also, there's a "Shooting Star" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for a bullish price moment in the direction of the next resistance area.

There's a bearish "Doji" pattern, which hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the closest support during the day. If any bullish pattern forms little later on, there'll be a moment for a local upward price movement.


More:
https://goo.gl/mjUuPJ

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily analytics
11:47 13.03.2018

The last bullish "Hammer" led to the current upward price movement. There's no any reversal pattern, so we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average, which could act as resistance. If so, there'll be time for a bearish correction.

There's no any bearish pattern because all the last candles are bullish. Also, the price has broken the "Window", which acted as resistance many times before. So, it's likely that the pair is going to test this "Window", which could act as support this time.

More:
https://goo.gl/nYq7By

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

UK Economy Lag Behind Other G20 Countries


According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the British economy is expected to grow at a gradual pace compared with other major advanced or emerging countries. Prior the publication of the Spring Statement, the Paris-based organization revised upwards its economic outlook for Britain by 1.3% this year along with the strong global recovery. The forecast is higher than the initial estimate of 1.2% but remains to be the weakest in the Group of Twenty (G-20).


The OECD projected that the most rapid growth from 2011 was led by US tax reductions and German expenditure. The think tank stated that the world economy stayed on course to boost its annual momentum to 3.9% in the next couple of years. The figure is relatively higher than the recent forecast in November 2018 of 3.7% and 3.6% in 2019. However, there are warnings that the recovery risk may subside due to the expansion of trade barriers and could further affect the growth and jobs. The OECD mentioned that increased in UK inflation would continue to squeeze the household income. Also, the sluggish business investment could affect growth for the following years until 2020 due to risks caused by the Brexit talks.


The forecast for UK economic growth in 2019 was left unchanged at 1.1%, which recorded to be the slowest progress next to Japan. Economists predicted that the British economy will grow by 1.5% on an annual basis, while Chancellor Philip Hammond is expected to issue an optimistic outlook of the revised official forecasts on Tuesday.


Overall, the latest projection of the OECD showed that the entire G20 countries, except for Russia, will expand at a faster pace for the current year versus the November forecast.

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF Daily Analytics
06:26 14.03.2018
Recommendation:

SELL 0.9415

SL 0.9470

TP1 0.932 TP2 0.926 TP3 0.9225

On the daily chart of USD/CHF, bulls tried twice to overcome resistance at 0.9475 and both times failed. It points at their weakness and increases the possibility of the pair’s decline below the lower border of the uptrend channel and further resumption of the downtrend.

On H1, there’s a “Three Indians” pattern. A break of support at 0.9415 and getting outside of the bullish channel will trigger the “Shark” pattern.

More:
https://goo.gl/Ke8X5o

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily analytics
06:33 14.03.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 1.4070 SL 1.4015 TP1 1.4170 TP2 1.4225 TP2 1.4240

BUY 1.3915 SL 1.3860 TP1 1.4015 TP2 1.4100 TP3 1.4225

On the daily chart, GBP/USD «bulls managed to lead the pair outside of the downtrend channel and trigger the “Bat”. Its 88.6% target is at 1.41. After that, the rally may continue towards 88.6% target of the “Shark”.

On H1, the “Wolfe waves” pattern was activated with a target at 1.4240-1.4245. To continue the rally, bulls need to overcome resistance at 1.4070.

More;
https://goo.gl/rLxzUs

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
06:58 14.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2380; resistance – 1.2450.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2380; SL — 1.2360; TP1 — 1.2480; TP2 — 1.2520
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines and narrowing channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices returned to the positive area and may continue uptrend.

More:
https://goo.gl/Wyy3zh

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:59 14.03.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.3930; resistance – 1.4010.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.3940; SL — 1.3920; TP1 — 1.4010; TP2 — 1.4070.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices returned to the positive area and the Bulls looks strong to continue market’s growing.

More:
https://goo.gl/jWQwzb

 

[riki143]

Important Economic Events

USA CPI (consumer price index) is an important indicator of consumer inflation. The Federal Reserve takes this indicator into account when it makes decisions about the key interest rate.

The Fed’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement will be published on March 21, so the CPI release at 14:30 MT time on March 13 is highly important. If the index is higher than expected, the market’s confidence in the upcoming rate hikes will increase making the greenback go up.

Follow this event on the FBS Economic Calendar https://goo.gl/Ri7XNU

 

[riki143]

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[riki143]

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