Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/CAD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
18:32 01.09.2017

Canadian dollar keeps making impressive gains versus its US counterpart. USD/CAD made an attempt to recover, but was severely rejected down from 1.2660 and fell to the lowest levels in more than 2 years.

The pair was hit both by the US problems and Canada’s bright economic figures. The CAD strengthened even as oil prices slipped in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, which has paralyzed a quarter of the US refining industry. A report released on Thursday showed that Canadian GDP grew at 4.5% annual pace in the second quarter, at the fastest pace since 2011. In addition, Mexican Economy Minister said on Thursday that Mexico and Canada would remain in the North American Free Trade Agreement even if the US administration abandoned the accord.

Traders are now almost sure that the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate this year. Some players are even expecting a rate hike as soon as at the upcoming meeting on Wednesday, September 6. Such possibility is estimated at 30%. The likelihood of a rate hike in 2017, in general, is estimated at 85%.

Canadians will celebrate the Labor Day on Monday, and banks both in Canada and the US will be closed. Other days of the week will be packed with important events for CAD. Economic data releases include trade balance, building permits, Ivey PMI and employment figures.

USD/CAD remains in a downtrend. This trend will likely continue. A weekly close below 200-week MA at 1.2430 will be a bearish sign. Next support levels are at 1.2300 and 1.2200. MACD divergence on the daily chart may allow some correction to the upside. Resistance is at 1.2430 and 1.2550.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_outlook_for_september_4_8_3428

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "THORN" PATTERN
10:07 04.09.2017

The main trend is still bullish, but the price faced resistance at 1.1959, so we've got a "Thorn" pattern, which pushed the market to the 34 Moving Average. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest support area at 1.1827 - 1.1801 as an intraday target. If a pullback from these levels happens, we could have an upward price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.1909 - 1.1959.

Bears faced support at 1.1847, so the price is consolidating. However, the pair is likely going to test the next support at 1.1827 - 1.1822. If so, we could have a new local low soon. Meanwhile, there's an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.1892 - 1.1909 afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"thorn"_pattern_3435

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO BREAK THE LAST HIGH
10:10 04.09.2017

Bulls found resistance at 1.2985, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. If the 89 Moving Average acts as support, the price is likely going to test another resistance at 1.2989. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to test the nearest support at 1.2932 - 1.2891.

There's a "V-Top" pattern, which pushed the price to the closest support at 1.2936. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to break the last high during the day. If the market doesn't fixate above 1.2989 - 1.2994, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2932 - 1.2916.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bulls_going_to_break_the_last_high_3436

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: MARKET GOING TO TEST 55 MA AGAIN
10:27 04.09.2017

The 34 & 55 Moving Averages have acted as support, so we've got bullish patterns such a "Harami" and an "Inverted Hammer". However, confirmation of these patterns is quite weak, so the market is likely going to test the 55 MA once again.

The price is consolidating near the last "Window". Also, there are a "Harami" and a "High Wave" patterns. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for an intraday decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_market_going_to_test_55_ma_again_3438

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: NEW "WINDOW"
10:29 04.09.2017

There's a new "Window", but we still don't have any reversal pattern. So, the price is likely going to continue falling down towards the lower "Window". If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement.

The last pullbacks from the upper "Window" led to form a new local low. It's likely that the market is going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_new_"window"_3439

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD IS GATHERING STRENGTH FOR TAKEOFF
11:03 04.09.2017

Recommendations:

BUY 0.7205

SL 0.715

TP1 0.7295 TP2 0.7345 TP2 0.7395

On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps correcting to the long-term uptrend as the “Shark” pattern is transforming into 5-0. Bulls retain hopes for return to 61.8% and 50% of the wave CD with the following recovery of the trend.

On H1, NZD/USD is forming the “widening wedge” pattern. Another test of resistance at 0.7205 will end the process. Success will allow bulls to count on a correction to the current short-term downtrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd_is_gathering_strength_for_takeoff__3443

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: WAVE (II) IS ABOUT TO END
11:13 04.09.2017

There's developing wave 4, which is likely going to take the form of a zigzag. So, we could have a downward impulse in wave [c] soon. If a pullback from 1/8 MM Level happens afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

Wave has been formed like a zigzag, so there's a bearish impulse in wave (i). At the same time, wave (ii) is about to end, so we're likely going to have a decline in wave (iii) of [c] during the day.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_wave_(ii)_is_about_to_end_3444

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD PAINTED A TRIANGLE
11:22 04.09.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 0.7985 SL 0.793 TP1 0.8085 TP2 0.8335

SELL 0.7915 SL 0.797 TP 0.779

On the daily chart, AUD/USD formed a triangle. A break of its upper border will create conditions needed for an advance to 0.8000. On the other hand, it the pair quits bullish trend channels, risks of correction will strengthen.

On H1, there’s a “Widening wedge” pattern. The successful test of 0.7982 will allow bulls to keep moving up. On the other hand, decline to support 0.7918 will return initiative to bears.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd_painted_a_triangle_3446

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: TRADES IN CLOUD WILL CONTINUE
12:00 04.09.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2920, 1.2900; resistance – 1.3020.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2920; SL — 1.2900; TP1 — 1.2970; TP2 — 1.3020.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the market is supported by Tenkan and Kijun.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_trades_in_cloud_will_continue_3448

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE CAN’T BREAKOUT 0.8000
12:01 04.09.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7940; resistance – 0.8000.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7940/50; SL — 0.7920; TP1 — 0.8000; TP3 — 0.8040.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices are returned to the Cloud and supported by Tenkan, Kijun and upper border of the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_can’t_breakout_0.8000_3449

 

[riki143]

XAU/USD HAS SPREAD ITS WINGS
09:38 05.09.2017

Recommendation:

BUY $1321

SL $1305

TP $1351 TP2 $1386

On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps rallying towards 200% target of the AB=CD pattern. The area of $1347-1352 acts as key resistance. Support is near $1320.4-1321.6. Bulls retain control, so buying on the pullbacks is the main strategy.

On H1, XAU/USD keeps forming “Spike and reversal with acceleration”. As long as the pair remains above the trend line of the first stage ($1290), the outlook is bullish.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/xau_usd_has_spread_its_wings_3479

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: BULLS ARE COUNTING ON A TRIANGLE
09:47 05.09.2017

Recommendation:

SELL 1.2505 SL 1.256 TP 1.231 TP2 1.218

SELL 1.255 SL 1.261 TP 1.245 TP2 1.231

On the daily chart, USD/CAD bears managed to renew the long-term low. This increases the risks of the continuation of the decline to 1.2310, 1.2180 and 1.2040. Never the less, we can’t exclude the possibility of a short-term pullback because of the inside bar.

On H1, bears returned the pair inside the descending channel. This is a sign of their strength. At the same time, a break of the upper border of the triangle will create the risks of a pullback towards 1.2501-1.2507 and 1.254-1.2559.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_bulls_are_counting_on_a_triangle_3480

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO ENTERED INTO CLOUD
10:05 05.09.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1870/80; resistance – 1.1950, 1.1990.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.1910; SL — 1.1880; TP1 — 1.1950; TP2 – 1.1990.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; an irregular golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, narrow channel of Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are supported by Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_entered_into_cloud_3482

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR GOING TO NEGATIVE AREA
10:05 05.09.2017

Technical levels: support – 190.30, 108.90; resistance – 109.60, 109.90.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 109. 50; SL — 109.70; TP1 — 108.90; TP2 — 108.50.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the falling lines; Dollar is going to new lows and may breakdown the support of the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_going_to_negative_area_3483

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "FLAG" PATTERN
12:17 05.09.2017

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.1909 - 1.1875. It's likely that bears are going to test the 55 Moving Average, so we could have a new local low soon. However, if a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.1909 - 1.1959.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place above the 89 Moving Average. It seems like we're going to have a "Flag" pattern. If so, bears will probably try to test the closest support area at 1.1827 - 1.1822. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels happens, we could have an upward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_"flag"_pattern_3488

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: 34 & 55 MA ACTING AS SUPPORT
12:20 05.09.2017

The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as support. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to test the next support at 1.2891 - 1.2853 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.2989 - 1.3021 as an intraday bullish target.

Bears faced with support at 1.2916, so the price is consolidating. Also, there's a "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the closest support area at 1.2891 - 1.2872, which could be a departure point for a bullish correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_34___55_ma_acting_as_support_3489

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "HARAMI" AND "SHOOTING STAR"
12:23 05.09.2017

There's a developing bearish correction. We've got bearish patterns such a "Harami" and a "Shooting Star" at the last local high. So, the price is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

The Monday's "Window" remains open, but the last bearish "Engulfing" and "High Wave" patterns are still in the game. At the same time, there's an opportunity to have a local upward correction towards the Moving Averages. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the nearest support afterwards

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"harami"_and_"shooting_star"_3490

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARISH "THREE METHODS"
12:26 05.09.2017

We've got a bearish "Three Methods", but there's a local bullish "Harami" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the closest resistance level, which could lead to another decline.

There's resistance by the Monday's "Window". However, we've got a confirmed bullish "Hammer", so the pair is likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens, bears will try to deliver a new local low.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bearish_"three_methods"_3491

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: DEVELOPING IMPULSE IN WAVE [C] OF 4
12:51 05.09.2017

An extension in wave 3 has been finished under 3/8 MM Level, so there's developing wave 4, which is likely going to take the form of a zigzag. If the price doesn't find a lodgement below 1/8 MM Level, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish impulse.

Wave has been formed like a zigzag, so there's a developing impulse in wave [c] of 4. It's likely that wave (iii) of [c] is going to move on, so we could have a new local low pretty soon. The main target for wave [c] is 1/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_developing_impulse_in_wave_[c]_of_4_3492

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: BULLS WANT REVENGE
06:25 06.09.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 0.964

SL 0.9585

TP1 0.9765 TP2 0.986

On the daily chart, a double bottom allows the bulls to retain hopes of finishing a “Dragon” pattern. To do it they have to return the quotes to resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9765 and conquer them.

On H1, a successful test of resistance at 0.9640 (upper border of the downtrend channel) will increase the risks of an inverted butterfly pattern. Its 127.2% target corresponds to 0.9860.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf:_bulls_want_revenge_3508