Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "HAMMER" AND "BELT HOLD"
12:32 24.08.2017

There's a developing consolidation. The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as resistance. In this case, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" once again. If a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will probably try to reach the lower "Window".

We've got bullish patterns such a "Hammer" and a "Belt Hold" at the local low, which both have been confirmed by the last "Three Methods". So, bulls are likely going to push the price even higher during the day.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_"hammer"_and_"belt_hold"_3227

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: 34 MA GOING TO ACT AS SUPPORT
13:02 24.08.2017

There's a "Shooting Star", but confirmation of this pattern is quite weak. So, the 34 Moving Average is likely going to act as support. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline.

We've got a "Tweezers" and a "High Wave", which both have been confirmed by the two "Three Methods" patterns in a row. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, where we could have a bullish pattern. If so, the last high will be probably tested once again.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_34_ma_going_to_act_as_support_3228

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH "PENNANT"
10:19 25.08.2017

The price is consolidating near support at 1.1801. Also, there's a "Pennant", so the market is likely going to move up towards the nearest resistance at 1.1846. In this case, we could have a new local high pretty soon. However, bears will probably try to achieve the closest support at 1.1757 afterwards.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place near the 34 Moving Average. At the same time, we've got a bullish "Pennant". Therefore, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.1838 - 1.1846 as an intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.1789 - 1.1783.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_"pennant"_3247

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: PRICE GOING TO TEST LAST LOW AGAIN
10:22 25.08.2017

Bears faced support at 1.2768, so the price is consolidating. It seems like the market is going to test the last low once again. If any bullish pattern arrives little later on, we should keep in mind the closest resistance at 1.2831 - 1.2853 as an intraday target.

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.2768 - 1.2831. The main bearish target is the next support at 1.2768. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance area at 1.2811 - 1.2831.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_price_going_to_test_last_low_again_3248

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: WILL THE EURO FALL?
10:22 25.08.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 1.1845 SL 1.179
TP1 1.1945 TP2 1.2
SELL 1.1735
SL 1.179
TP 1.1625 TP2 1.155

On the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps forming “Spike and ledge” pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. The break of resistance at 1.1845 will increase the odds of the uptrend’s resumption. On the other hand, successful test of support at 1.1655 will open the way for a correction towards the lower border of the uptrend channel.

On H1 EUR/USD keeps consolidating within the “Widening wedge”. Return of the pair towards 38.2% and 23.6% of the wave 4-5 creates a condition for correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_will_the_euro_fall__3249

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: BULLS ENTER THE CROSSROADS
10:30 25.08.2017

recommendation: BUY 129.75 SL 129.2 TP1 130.95 TP2 131.8

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY bulls prepare an attack on the horizontal resistance aiming to return the pair inside the previous medium-term rising channel. If they succeed, risks of the bullish trend resumption will significantly rise.

On H1, the unsuccessful attempt of bears to make a “Head and Shoulders” pattern points at sellers’ weakness. A break of diagonal resistance will allow the bulls aim for 88.6% and 113% targets of the “Shark” pattern.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_jpy:_bulls_enter_the_crossroads_3251

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PRICE STILL CONSOLIDATING
11:19 25.08.2017

The price is still consolidating. It seems like wave [iv] is taking the form of a zigzag, so we could have a bearish impulse in wave (c) of [iv] soon. If a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish impulse in wave [v] of 3.

There's a possible double zigzag pattern in wave (b), so we've got a bearish impulse in wave i. Therefore, we're likely going to have wave iii of (c) soon. In this case, we should keep an eye on -1/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_price_still_consolidating_3253

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: 34 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE ONCE AGAIN
12:06 25.08.2017

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a bearish "Harami", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the lower "Window" is likely going to act as support, which means we could have a new local high pretty soon.

The last bearish "Harami" hasn't been confirmed enough, so it seems like we could have just a local decline. In this case, we should keep an eye on the upper "Window" as an intraday bullish target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_34_ma_acted_as_resistance_once_again_3254

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH "ENGULFING"
12:10 25.08.2017

The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so we've got a bullish "Harami" on this line. However, there's also a "Shooting Star" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support. If a pullback from the 89 MA happens afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

There's support by the 89 Moving Average. Also, we've got a developing bullish "Engulfing". If this pattern confirms, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance level, which could be a departure point for a decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_"engulfing"_3255

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO MAY GO HIGHER
12:41 25.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1780; resistance – 1.1870.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.1800; SL — 1.1780; TP1 — 1.1870; TP2 – 1.1920.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the bulls are ready to continue uptrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_may_go_higher_3256

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR REACHED CLOUD’S RESISTANCE
12:42 25.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 109.20; resistance – 109.75.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 109. 50/60; SL — 109.80; TP1 — 109.00; TP2 — 108.60.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under the pressure of bearish Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_reached_cloud’s_resistance__3257

 

[riki143]

US DOLLAR: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 28 - SEPTEMBER 1
15:45 25.08.2017

During the past week, the US dollar index (DXY) continued consolidation.

Recent releases weren’t very optimistic: manufacturing PMI and home sales both declined. Donald Trump threatened to shut down the US government over funding for a border wallon Wednesday. The market is concerned that the Congress won’t easily raise the debt ceiling and deliver on tax reform.

There will be a lot of economic updates in the coming days: the US will release consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report and preliminary GDP for the second quarter on Wednesday, core PCE price index and personal spending on Thursday and NFP together with ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday. All in all, we’ll get a pretty much new information about America’s economic health. The quality of these statistics will be very important for further direction of the greenback. Another important driver of the market will be the speech of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole on Friday evening (August 25).

The greenback remains within the overall downtrend. A close above 93.50 is needed for the DXY to start reversing up. Next resistance levels will be at 94.00 and 94.50. A break below 93.00 will lead to 92.50 and 92.00.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/us_dollar:_outlook_for_august_28___september_1_3263

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 25 - SEPTEMBER 1
15:48 25.08.2017

EUR/USD kept trading near the benchmark line of 200-week MA (1.1760). The euro continued its consolidation and stayed within a narrower range.

ECB President Mario Draghi avoided giving any clues on the European Central Bank’s current thinking in his speech in Germany. According to Draghi, central banks must be open-minded on policy innovations as they prepare for future economic developments. Another speech at Jackson Hole on Friday evening will set the tone for the next trading days. Other comments from the ECB policymakers were hawkish and bullish for the euro.

European economic data were mostly bright. Euro zone business growth maintained solid pace in August due to a strong manufacturing PMI, although the region’s services PMI declined. German Ifo business climate surprised to the upside.

In the upcoming days, there will be some data releases of medium importance in the euro area. Pay attention to German preliminary CPI on Wednesday and flash consumer inflation figures for the entire euro zone on Thursday: these figures will be crucial for further ECB policy and, consequently, will move the market.

EUR/USD remains within the overall uptrend. Only a decline below 1.1650 will mean reversal to the downside. This level will become in focus if the euro slips below 1.1765 and 1.1690. An increase above 1.1845 is needed for the uptrend to continue. In this case, further bullish targets will lie at 1.1900 and 1.2000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_outlook_for_august_25___september_1_3264

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 25 - SEPTEMBER 1
15:52 25.08.2017

GBP/USD made another break to the downside. It fell below the 100-day MA (1.2875) and 1.2850 and hit a near-two-month low.

The outlook for the British pound is still clouded by concerns about Brexit risk and economic fundamentals. Data showed revised quarterly growth of 0.3% in the second quarter, while household spending remained weak.

The British government is trying to move forward formal Brexit discussions. There was a series of position papers outlining potential compromises over key issues. However, the nation’s future still remains very uncertain.

The UK economic calendar will be light. Monday is a summer bank holiday, so trading volumes will decrease. The most important release – manufacturing PMI – will come out on Friday.

Technical picture continues to look bearish. The next Fibonacci level of June-August advance is at 1.2735. Below it, support will be at 1.2650 (200-day MA). Pullbacks to the upside will meet resistance at 1.2850 and 1.2930 ahead of 1.3000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_august_25___september_1_3265

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 25 - SEPTEMBER 1
15:54 25.08.2017

USD/JPY consolidated within the downtrend channel drawn from July highs. The pair has now approached the resistance line of this channel and we are soon to see a breakthrough to the either side.

Tokyo CPI for August was encouraging: inflation accelerated from 0.2% to 0.5% y/y. The 2% inflation target is still very far away, but some progress has been made.

Next week Japan will release unemployment rates, retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence and other indicators. Remember though that USD/JPY depends more on the figures out of the United States. The US will release consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report and preliminary GDP for the second quarter on Wednesday, core PCE price index and personal spending on Thursday and NFP together with ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday.

The current resistance line at 109.80 is reinforced by the former support and now resistance line connecting April and June lows. Support is at 108.80. A decline below this level is needed to bring the pair down to 108.00 and 107.50.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_outlook_for_august_25___september_1_3266

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLS ENTERED INTO CLOUD
09:40 28.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2860; resistance – 1.2940.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2890; SL — 1.2870; TP1 — 1.2940; TP2 — 1.2980.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the Bulls entered into the cloudy area and may go to 3W-highs.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bulls_entered_into_cloud_3276

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE RETURNED TO SSB
09:41 28.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7920; resistance – 0.7950, 0.7990.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7940; SL — 0.7920; TP1 — 0.7990; TP3 — 0.8020.
Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are returned to SSB and breakout its resistance; expected continue of the uptrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_returned_to_ssb_3277[/IMG]

More:
[URL]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_returned_to_ssb_3277[/URL]

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: BULLS ARE IN STRATEGIC RETREAT
10:16 28.08.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 0.7335

SL 0.727

TP1 0.7425 TP2 0.7485 TP3 0.756



On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps forming a 5-0 pattern. To restore the uptrend, bulls need to conquer resistances at 0.7278, 0.7335 and 0.7386. A pullback to 50% of the wave CD allowed 5-0 to finally form.

On H1, there are “Wolfe waves” and a “Shark” patterns. A break of resistance at 0.7335 will be a signal for opening long positions. As the target, one can use 113% of the wave XC.

MoreD:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd:_bulls_are_in_strategic_retreat___3279

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD IS BECOMING STALE ON A LEDGE
10:38 28.08.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 0.796

SL 0.7905

TP1 0.802 TP2 0.807

On the daily chart, AUD/USD bulls are trying to resume the uptrend. For that they have to conquer resistance at 0.7960 and return the pair to the short-term rising channel. In such circumstances, advance to 200% target of AB=CD has all chances to continue.

On H1, AUD/USD keeps forming corrective pattern “Spike and ledge” on the basis of 1-2-3. A break of resistance at 0.7960 will increase the odds of reaching 88.6% and 113% targets of the Shark.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd_is_becoming_stale_on_a_ledge__3281

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-TOP" PATTERN
11:16 28.08.2017

The last "Pennant" has been broken, so bulls pushed the price higher. Also, we've got a "V-Top" pattern, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1892 - 1.1875. If a pullback from these levels happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

There's a "V-Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. However, bulls are likely going to test the last local high during the day. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to achieve the closest support at 1.1892 - 1.1875.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"v_top"_pattern_3286