Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: WAVE (III) OF [V] MAY HAVE BEEN FORMED
14:37 28.06.2017

The price is still rising in wave C of (E). It seems like wave [v] of C is likely going to be continued. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday bullish target.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (iii) of [v] may have been formed. However, if the price fixates above 2/8 MM Level, there'll be an opportunity to have wave (v) of [v]. The main target is 4/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_wave_(iii)_of_[v]_may_have_been_formed_1857

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 29: SOME NEWS FROM "CENTRAL BANKERS’ PARTY"
09:06 29.06.2017

The US dollar shuddered to its lows as central bankers’ bias turned tighter. The greatest moves were evidenced in the pairs containing CAD, GBP, EUR, AUD.

The euro surged to 1.1420 in the previous sessions as ECB President Mario Draghi signaled that the monetary policy stimulus might be toned down towards the end of this year. He noted that the link between monetary policy and the performance of the real economy is working; the link between growing real economy and inflation is becoming more subdued than in the past though.

In the upcoming hours, EUR might lose some points against the greenback sliding to 1.1375/1.1330 as the further upside is a bit complicated. German and Spanish inflation rates might push it a bit higher towards 1.1420 if releases are upbeat (higher inflation rates). The main focus is the US final GDP which is out at 4:30 pm GMT+3. There is no change is forecasted. So, we don’t expect great moves from the USD upon the announcement unless data print is disappointing.

Preview from eFXplus

USD/JPY was a bit laggard today. It did slip though despite weaker retail sales data released earlier today from Japan. The Bank of Japan Policy Board member, Yutaka Harada is set to deliver his speech later today (0630GMT). He will unlikely set in motion the currently subdued trading of USD/JPY, but just be safe, keep on track his speech.

The British pound also made some wiggles in the past few sessions. Comment from bank of England Governor Carney were interpreted as being hawkish comparing to his last meeting’s comments on the country’s economic performance. He noted that some removal of monetary stimulus will likely to be needed as the economy came closer to running at full capacity. Sterling jumped to 1.2975 following Carney’s comments than slipped a few points and stopped at 1.2955. There is a scope to extension to 1.3000 in the short term.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.3010 from this week opening price of 1.3258 due to hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and higher oil prices. It was the CAD greatest daily gain in three months. You should keep in mind the fact that we are approaching a new interest rate decision that will allow Loonie to gain even more strength. Currently, markers are pricing a 70% chance of a rate hike in central bank’s July meeting. Crude oil futures rose higher on the back of the biggest decline in the US output.

Aussie spiked to 0.7660 in the course of the past sessions. The Bank of Australia policymakers might follow the example of their US colleagues and tighten their monetary policy, If the RBA’s economic indicators are in line with the bank’s projections, the tightening cycle might start earlier (if not tightening, at least increased hawkishness of the RBA’s policymakers, which is also be well accepted by the AUD).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...some_news_from_"central_bankers’_party"__1879

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE GOING TO MARCH’S EXTREMUMS
09:16 29.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7640; resistance – 0.7690.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7690; SL — 0.7710; TP1 — 0.7640; TP2 — 0.7610.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market made a new local highs, but there is a strong resistance on 0.7690-0.7700.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_going_to_march’s_extremums_1880

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR BREAKING OUT SSA’S RESISTANCE
09:17 29.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 112.10; resistance – 112.80, 113.20.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 112.40; SL — 112.20; TP1 — 112.80; TP2 — 113.20.
Sell — 112.10; SL — 112.30; TP1 — 111.40; TP2 — 110.90.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the prices fixed above the daily Cloud, but there is a strong resistance on 112.30.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_breaking_out_ssa’s_resistance_1881

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO IS HEADING TO THE NORTH
10:04 29.06.2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, a break of the resistance at 1.1295 followed by the retest allowed the euro to enter the operations space. The pair is ready to test the resistance at 1.147 and realize the mid-term target 127,2% in the Crab pattern. The nearest important level of the support can be found near 1.1345.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, after the realization of the Wolfe Waves pattern and precipitous rally , the positions of the Bears don’t promise any significant gains. The rollbacks towards 1.1388 and 1.1345 will likely be bought out.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_is_heading_to_the_north_1883

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: FRANC BROKE LOOSE
10:06 29.06.2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, the Bears managed to withdraw quotes from short-term upward and long-term downward trading channels. This increases the risks of realization of the targets 224% and 127,2% in the AB=CD and Crab patterns. In case of the strong bearish trend you should consider selling on the growth. The nearest resistance can be found at 0.9635.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the downward movement continues. Bears indicated their presence at the level of 0.964.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf:_franc_broke_loose__1884

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS READY TO PUSH PRICE HIGHER
10:51 29.06.2017

Bulls faced resistance at 1.1425, but the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.1464. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.1365.

The main trend is bullish. The price is consolidating under resistance at 1.1425. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to reach another resistance at 1.1464 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will have a green light to reach support at 1.1398 - 1.1365.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bulls_ready_to_push_price_higher_1885

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: RESISTANCE WAITING FOR BULLS
10:56 29.06.2017

The price is consolidating above the broken trendline. It seems like bulls are ready to go even higher, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2976 - 1.3013 as an intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an option to have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2976 - 1.2887.

Bulls faced resistance at 1.2976, so the price is consolidating. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to continue moving up towards the next resistance at 1.3013, which could be a departure point for a local decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_resistance_waiting_for_bulls_1886

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "EVENING DOJI STAR" ARRIVED
15:19 29.06.2017

There's a possible "Engulfing" at the last high. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to deliver a local downward correction towards the nearest support area. However, if a pullback from this support happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

We've got an "Evening Doji Star", but confirmation of this pattern isn't enough. So, we could have a correction in the direction of the closest support. Meanwhile, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"evening_doji_star"_arrived_1889

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: PRICE REACHED UPPER "WINDOW"
15:22 29.06.2017

The price has reached the upper "Window". If any bearish pattern forms, the pair is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

There isn't any bearish pattern so far, cause all the last candles are bullish. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest "Window" in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will have a green light to set up a downward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_price_reached_upper_"window"_1890

 

[riki143]

OIL MARKET OVERVIEW
15:24 29.06.2017

Oil prices extended gains for a six-straight day after falling near 20% since mid-May when OPEC and non-OPEC producers extended their output reduction deal until March 2018, but with lesser than expected cuts. Brent oil futures spiked to $48.10 after the US Energy Information said that country’s weekly production decreased 100K per barrel to 9.3. million bpd (the biggest decline since last year summer). An indication of the surprise build in crude inventories was discarded by jubilant oil buyers. Some analysts believe that traders’ excitement is premature. The output decline is likely temporary; the decline in the US production was caused by the storm disruption to the activity in the Gulf of Mexico last week.

In the upcoming days, crude oil futures will likely lose their earlier gains. There is a sense that markets are still oversupplied with upticks in Nigeria’s and Libya’s output which exempted from the OPEC-led production cut deal. Earlier in June, Libya's 270,000-bpd Sharara oilfield was reopened after political situation in the country stabilized. The oil demand is decreasing worldwide. India’s prime minister Narendra Modi has recently announced that the nation seeks to cut its dependence on oil imports and push forward the domestic production. India is the world’s third-biggest oil importer, so reductions in the longer term will send oil prices lower.

Another headwind for oil prices was increasing tension in the Middle East. In early June, Saudi Arabia and a group of its close allies decided to punish Qatar for its support of Iran and terrorist groups. The land, sea and air blockade of the country was established in a matter of time. The following event was negatively perceived by the market participants; it could undermine OPEC’s effort to curb oil glut as some parties of the deal will more likely to cheat and sell more oil above the assigned quota (Qatar, for example, retaliate its neighbors for the blockade). The Qataris and Saudis are still seeking a diplomatic solution. Last week, the Saudi King promoted Mohammed bin Salman to the position of Crown Prince (it means that he will likely become the next king). The Crown price took a hard line against Iran and accused its foreign affairs in Yemen. The blockade should make Qatar to abstract itself from Iran. If there is a peaceful solution to the situation with Qatar, oil price will rise (the peaceful solution will likely to occur). The newly promoted Crown Prince will play a high stake game with the Iranians in the process of resolution of Qatari problem. If he wins, the reaction of the oil prices will also be positive.

At the time of writing, Brent oil futures are trading at $48.12. There is a scope for extension to $49. A break above $50 is unlikely though given the lack of positive fundamentals. On the downside, there are several supports at $46.20, $45.75 levels.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil_market_overview_1891

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PRICE STILL RISING IN WAVE [V] OF C
15:48 29.06.2017

The price is still rising in wave [v] of C. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level. If we have a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward price movement.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is rising in wave (v) of [v] since a pullback from 1/8 MM Level happened. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test 4/8 MM Level soon.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_price_still_rising_in_wave_[v]_of_c_1892

 

[riki143]

BITCOIN COULD START TO RESUME BULLISH BIAS, LOOKS FOR THE $3165 LEVEL
03:17 03.07.2017

Bitcoin, quoted in USD, is already trapped in an interesting area where buyers could help to boost the cryptocurrency towards record highs in the mid-term. During last weeks, headlines that called for a massive crash in BTC/USD added pressure in the bearish bias and that’s why we’re seeing a consolidation below $2600. Our Fibonacci forecast is showing that a demand zone has been established between $2438 and $2299.45 (50% - 61.8%), which could send the pair to test the $3165.79, where is located the -23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

RSI indicator is trying to turn positive at H4 chart, favoring the bullish outlook.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/..._bullish_bias,_looks_for_the_$3165_level_1932

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 7
08:47 03.07.2017

The yen was in today’s spotlight due to the Tokyo election on Sunday resulting in a big loss for the incumbent prime minister Abe and due to the swath of data out of Japan. Exit polls indicated the Liberal Democratic Party will likely win the fewest ever seats in the Tokyo assembly, forcing Abe to leave his post. Bank of Japan Q2 Tankan and Nikkei/Markit Manufacturing PMI beat market expectations and showed that Japanese economy is gathering steam. But as we saw early the indications of the heightened economic growth are discarded by the BOJ officials. They are centered on the inflation figures that are still hugely missing their target. USD/JPY ticked higher above 112.50 in the Asian session. There are several resistances ahead lying at 112.75, 112.80. The latter one may not be yielded easily. The technical outlook is still bullish, only a move below 111.30 will indicate the end of the bullish phase.

EUR/USD traded at 1.1412 not far away from last week’s high (1.1445 – the highest level in more than a year). The single currency got support from the expectations that the ECB is set to withdraw its stimulus. Jens Weidmann, head of Germany’s Buba and a member of the ECB’s rate-setting committee, said on Saturday that the ECB is working hard on moving away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. Later this week we will hear more comments from the ECB’s officials (Peter Praet and normally hawkish Eward Nowotny both speaking tomorrow). The pair will likely trade sideways in the upcoming sessions just a few pips lower from its recent highs.

Aussie lost momentum on Monday sliding to 0.7675 from 0.7712 (Friday’s high) after the lower than expected building approval print. During the next sessions, the Australian dollar has a chance to return its strength (especially if we get disappointing manufacturing figures from the US) and rise to 0.7720 – a quite strong resistance level.

Kiwi traded in Aussie’s fashion – lower from its last session. It dipped to 0.7316 from 0.7345. There is almost no catalyst for NZD to rise higher from the current level in the upcoming sessions. Most likely, NZD/USD will be trading sideways in the range of 0.7250 – 0.7375.

Loonie reached 1.2945 against the Us dollar on Friday. On Monday, the majority of currencies, it surrendered to the greenback. Oil prices extended their gains on Monday lifted by the first fall in US drilling activity in months. Brent futures are now at $48.85 per barrel. There is a room for further extension as Qatari problem is still not solved.

The pound fell around 0.2 percent to 1.2995 after the 8-day rally. Today’s focus will be on the UK manufacturing PMI which is due at 12:30 MT time. Apparently, the recent rally was overbought, so quotes moved lower. We remain optimistic and don’t lose our faith in the GBP. There is a room for extension towards 1.3020/1.3045. A break of the support at 1.2925 would put an end to the recent rally.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_7_1936

 

[riki143]

GOLD ATTACKS THE NECKLINE
09:16 03.07.2017

On the daily chart of gold, quotes came closer to the necklines of the Head and Shoulders pattern. A successful test of this line will open the way towards $1183 – 1188. In contrast, a rollback would lead to the consolidation in the range of $1230 – 1260.

On the hourly chart of gold, quotes move within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. The prepare for the attack of the June high. If it is tested successfully the rally will continue towards the target 200% in the AB=CD pattern. An important support is located near $1.231.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_attacks_the_neckline_1938

 

[riki143]

USD / JPY: BULLS SAW A BAT
09:19 03.07.2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, Bulls settled in above the important level at 112.07. They are going to attack the diagonal resistance in the form of the upper border of the downward long-term channel. Its successful test will increase the risks for the realization of the Bat pattern. Its target 127.2% is located near 117.4.

On the USD/jPY, the Dragon pattern is relevant. An update of June high (the Dragon’s head) will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards the convergence zone 113.7 – 113.75 (target 161.8% in the AB=CD + level 88.6^ from the last downward wave) and higher.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd___jpy:_bulls_saw_a_bat_1939

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE ENTERED TO TENKAN-KIJUN CHANNEL
09:35 03.07.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7640; resistance – 0.7690.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7730.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the market in a correction to Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_entered_to_tenkan_kijun_channel_1940

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR SUPPORTED BY KIJUN-SEN
09:36 03.07.2017

Technical levels: support – 112.30; resistance – 113.20, 113.60.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 112.50; SL — 112.30; TP1 — 113.20; TP2 — 113.60.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Kijun-sen; the prices supported by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and may go higher.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_supported_by_kijun_sen_1941

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: CONSOLIDATION ABOVE THE 34 MA
10:11 03.07.2017

Bulls faced resistance at 1.1464, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern, which pushed the price to support at 1.1398. In this case, the market is likely going to test the next support at 1.1365. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards resistance at 1.1464 - 1.1494

The main trend is still bullish, but there's a consolidation, which is taking place above the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.1365 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this support, bulls will probably try to reach resistance at 1.1464.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_consolidation_above_the_34_ma_1944

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" STOPPED BULLS
10:29 03.07.2017

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.3046 - 1.2976. Also, we've got two "V-Top" patterns in a row, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2976 - 1.2947. If a pullback from this area happens afterwards, bulls will have a green light to catch the next resistance at 1.3046 - 1.3056.

There's a consolidating, which is taking place under resistance at 1.3012 - 1.3028. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.2976 - 1.2947. Considering a possible pullback from this area, we should keep in mind the next resistance at 1.3046 - 1.3056 as an intraday bullish target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_"double_top"_stopped_bulls_1946