Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE UNDER MAIN RESISTANCE
06:20 09.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7520; resistance – 0.7540.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7510; SL — 0.7530; TP1 — 0.7470; TP2 — 0.7420.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but the prices are under the main daily resistance and local market is overbought.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_under_main_resistance_1514

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR CORRECTED TO KIJUN-SEN
06:21 09.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 109.90; resistance – 110.40.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 109.80; SL — 110.00; TP1 — 108.70; TP2 — 108.30.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling Kijun-sen; the prices are corrected to local resistance and may continue the downtrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_corrected_to_kijun_sen_1515

 

[riki143]

GOLD FAILED TO FIND HAPPINESS IN THE NORTH
06:22 09.06.2017

Recommendation: SELL $1270 SL $1285 TP $1240.

On the daily chart of gold, the bulls failed to hold the quotes above the important level of $1280. As a result, there is a risk of the correction towards the convergence zone $1250-1256 and then towards the intersection of the lower border of the upwards trading channel and upper border of the long-term downward trading channel.



On the hourly chart of gold, the Bump and Run-Reversal pattern has been realized. A break of the diagonal support of the initial stage followed by the rollback of the quotes towards $1270 may result in the restoration of the downtrend.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_failed_to_find_happiness_in_the_north__1516

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: BEARS REQUIRE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CORRECTION
06:25 09.06.2017

Recommendation: SELL 123,2 SL 123,75 TP 121.

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, target 113% of the inverted "Shark" pattern has been implemented. As a result, the risks for the development of the correction towards 38.2% and 50% levels of the CD wave increased. The rollback can be realized as part of the transformation process of the "Shark" pattern into 5-0. This can be used for opening long positions on the rebounds from the key support levels.



On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, a break of the diagonal support at 123.2 may result in the development of the correction towards targets at 78.6% and 88.6% levels in the "Shark" pattern.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_jpy:_bears_require_the_development_of_the_correction__1517

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "TRIPLE TOP" PUSHED PRICE LOWER
09:05 09.06.2017

We've got a "Triple Top", which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1160 - 1.1108 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1267 - 1.1287.

The price was consolidating between the levels 1.1278 - 1.1204, but then bears reached the 89 Moving Average. Also, there's an option to have the price even lower, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.1161 - 1.1137 as an intraday target. If a pullback from these levels happens, bulls will have a chance to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.1204

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"triple_top"_pushed_price_lower_1521

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 12-16
09:05 09.06.2017

The pound slumped to 1.2635 after the Conservative lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the UK into political turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations. Before the election, the UK was set to start negotiations in June and leave the block by the end of March 2019, now this Brexit process will likely be delayed.

Next week will be really eventful for the GBP/USD. On Tuesday, traders will closely watch Britain’s inflation data coming at 11:30 am MT time. Further, we will receive average earning index, claimant count and an unemployment rate for the UK on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of England is set to deliver its official rate. While taking the decision on its interest rate the BoE’s policymakers will likely take into consideration the data released earlier in the week. No matter what headlines we get on the inflation and labor market figures, the BoE will likely remain its monetary policy settings unchanged making reference to the heightened uncertainty over the Brexit process. The key event in the US is Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for June 14. The probability of the rate hike reached 95.8%. The minutes from May 2-3 meeting showed that Fed’s policymakers are ready to increase rates if they receive enough evidence confirming the economic growth and inflation pick-up. In a case of the rate hike, the USD will strengthen against the currently vulnerable GBP.

Technically, the pair managed to rebound from 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1985-1.3046 recent up-swing. Stochastic shows that GBP may still go lower in the short-term, a successful break of the 1.2700 handle may send quotes towards 200-day SMA support near 1.2575 or lower towards 50% Fibo level traced from this year low (1.1985).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_june_12_16__1522

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: PLUNGED LIKE A STONE
09:08 09.06.2017

The last upward "Wedge" has been broken, so the pair plunged like a stone. Finally, bears meet with support at 1.2634, so we could have an upward correction towards the closest resistance at 1.2768, which could be a departure point for another rally towards another support at 1.2634.

Bears were stopped by support at 1.2634, so we've got a "Thorn" pattern. In this case, bulls are likely going to test resistance at 1.2768. Nevertheless, bears could push the price even lower afterwards in the direction of the next support at 1.2672 - 1.2581.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_plunged_like_a_stone_1523

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH "INVERTED HAMMER"
12:31 09.06.2017

The bearish correction is still developing, so there isn't any bullish pattern so far. In this case, the market is likely going to continue declining towards the nearest "Window".

We've got an "Inverted Hammer" at the last low, but confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, we could have a local upward correction and another decline afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_"inverted_hammer"_1526

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "THREE METHODS" PATTERN
12:33 09.06.2017

The price has been rising since we had an "Inverted Hammer" at the last low. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance by the middle of the last huge bearish candle. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

There's a "Three Methods" pattern, which has been confirmed enough. In this case, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the price even higher in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_"three_methods"_pattern_1527

 

[riki143]

GBP/CHF REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE ZONE
16:42 09.06.2017

GBP/CHF reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.2220.
GBP/CHF recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.1250 (former support level, which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower trendline of the recently broken up channel from last November (acting as resistance now after it was broken). The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing. GBP/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.2220. (low of the previous minor correction 2 from March).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_chf_reversed_from_resistance_zone_1528

 

[riki143]

CAD/JPY REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
16:46 09.06.2017

CAD/JPY reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 83.70
CAD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the powerful support level 80.80 (which reversed the price with the daily hammer in the middle of May and also in April, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The latest upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous minor correction (ii). CAD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 83.70 (top of the pervious impulse wave 1 from May).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/cad_jpy_reversed_from_support_zone_1529

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: BEARS PREPARE AN ATTACK
07:05 12.06.2017

On the daily USD/CAD chart bulls and bears are fighting for an important area of 1.3435-1.3505. Bulls’ victory will allow them to count on the resumption of the medium-term uptrend. On the other hand, if bears win, the odds of Wolfe Waves pattern will increase.

On H1 USD/CAD keeps consolidating in the 1.3430-1.3535 in line with reversed Spike and Ledge pattern based on 1-2-3. Bears have approached 1.3430 and, in case of its successful test, will be ready to resume the short-term downtrend.

Recommendation: SELL 1.3430 SL 1.3485 TP1 1.3330 TP2 1.3280 TP3 1.3165

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_bears_prepare_an_attack_1540

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS HAVE BUILT FORTRESSES
07:08 12.06.2017

On the daily EUR/USD chart bears failed to break support at 1.1170 from the first attempt. At this level and in the 1.1100-1.1130 bulls constructed powerful fortresses. The trend remains bullish as long as the pair stays above 1.08. The odds of failure to this level aren’t high, so traders should buy the euro on the pullbacks to the downside.

On H1 EUR/USD has realized “Three Indians” and 1-2-3 patterns and then formed Wolfe’s Waves. The pair approached 2-3 line. The short-term outlook for the pair will depend on its ability to overcome this level. The break will strengthen the odds of an increase towards $1.1250 and $1.1280. Otherwise, bears will head towards 1.1170.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bulls_have_built_fortresses__1541

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "RISING WEDGE"
08:28 12.06.2017

We've got a "Rising Wedge", so the price formed a pullback from the 55 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation under the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.1249 - 1.1267 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline in the direction of the next support at 1.1204 - 1.1165.

There's a "Double Bottom", so the price is consolidating under the 34 Moving Average. It seems like bears are going to achieve the closest support at 1.1204 - 1.1194, which could be a departure point for an upward price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.1249 - 1.1267.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"rising_wedge"_1546

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLISH "THORN"
08:31 12.06.2017

We've got a bullish "Thorn", so the price is consolidating. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.2705 as an intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.2793 - 1.2830.

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.2768 - 1.2705. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.2705 during the day. If we see a pullback from this level, there'll be an option to have a new local high.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bullish_"thorn"_1547

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "INVERTED HAMMER" ON THE 55 MA
12:18 12.06.2017

We've got an "Inverted Hammer" on the 55 Moving Average. Considering confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward correction.

There's a new "Window", which was formed this morning. Also, we've got a "Belt Hold" pattern, so bulls are likely going to continue pushing the price even higher towards the nearest resistance.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"inverted_hammer"_on_the_55_ma_1548

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "SHOOTING STAR" AND "HARAMI"
12:21 12.06.2017

The price is still declining. Moreover, there're a "Shooting Star" and a "Harami", which both have been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the last low in the short term.

There isn't any bullish pattern so far, which means all last candles are bearish. In this case, the price is likely going to continue falling down until any reversal pattern forms.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_"shooting_star"_and_"harami"_1549

 

[riki143]

FOREX MAJORS: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 12-16
12:34 12.06.2017

The US dollar index recovered last week from 96.45 (the lowest point since November 2016) to the levels above 97.00. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate on Wednesday, June 14. The 25-basis-point rate hike is completely priced in and is no longer able to be a bullish driver for the American currency. The future fate of the greenback will depend on the hints from the Fed about its further moves, so pay great attention to Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference. Before the Fed’s meeting, the US will release economic statistics (PPI, CPI, retail sales). The figures are not likely to be impressive and may hurt USD. In addition, political turmoil in the United States continues after fired FBI Director James Comey’s testimony last Thursday. A shooting star on the daily chart means that the US dollar index (DXY) may test 96.70/50. Further support is located at 96.00. At the same time, the odds are that the Fed won’t alter its policy stance at this point and the US dollar will strengthen after the rate hike. This lets us believe that the DXY can end the week in 97.50/70 area.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/forex_majors:_outlook_for_june_12_16_1550

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH IMPULSE
14:08 12.06.2017

An impulse in wave [c] of 2 may have been ended, so the price found a lodgement under 4/8 MM Level. In this case, there's an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave (i).

We've got a pullback from 8/8 MM Level, so wave iv ended on the one-hour chart. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver wave v of (i) in the coming hours. If so, we should keep in mind 4/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_impulse_1551

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP REACHED BUY TARGET 0.8800
18:10 12.06.2017

EUR/GBP reached buy target 0.8800
Next buy target - 0.8950
EUR/GBP today broke above the key resistance level 0.8800 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.8800 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate wave (C) of the primary ABC correction ? from last December. The active impulse wave 5 started earlier from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8700 and the upper trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from January. EUR/GBP is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.8950 (target price for the completion of wave (C)).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_gbp_reached_buy_target_0.8800_1554