Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar returned to Tenkan-sen
2/3/2017

Technical levels: support – 112.90; resistance – 113.70, 114.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 113.00; SL — 112.80; TP1 — 113.70; TP2 — 114.20.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a market is oversold; the prices are in a Tenkan-Kijun’s channel.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12327

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, February 3rd
2/3/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 253 985 ? + 290 561 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0783; 1.0812; 1.0840; 1.0860
Closest support levels 1.0755; 1.0733; 1.0695; 1.06669
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0755, with target points at 1.0733 and 1.0695
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0783 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0812 and 1.0840

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 2 625 ? + 2 591 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.08; 113.35; 113.55; 114.04
Closest support levels 112.51; 112.26; 111.99; 111.56
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.08, with target points at 113.35 and 113.55
Alternative scenario Moving below 112.51 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.26 and 111.99

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 1 312 ? + 644 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3031; 1.3051; 1.3094; 1.3129
Closest support levels 1.3021; 1.2994; 1.2957; 1.2927
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3031, with the target points at 1.3051 and 1.3094
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3021 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2994 and 1.2957

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12330

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver new local high
2/3/2017

The price is consolidating in a range of the current “Rising Wedge”. Also, there’s a local “V-Top”, so the pair reached a support at 1.0745. In this case, bears are likely going to test the next support at 1.0719 – 1.0697. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0830.

We’ve got a “V-Top”, so the price achieved the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.0719 – 1.0703. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0774 – 1.0795.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12331

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: uptrend waiting for bears
2/3/2017

There’s a “V-Top”, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2465. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement towards a resistance at 1.2581 – 1.2619 later on.

The 89 Moving Average acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to test the uptrend, which could be a departure point for a local upward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12332

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Three Methods"
2/3/2017

We’ve got a “Doji Star”, which has been confirmed, so bears are likely going to test the lower “Window” and the 55 Moving Average. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

There’s a “Hanging Man” at the last high. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Three Methods” pattern, so the market is likely going to continue falling down. In this case, we should keep an eye on the lower “Window” as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12333

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test Moving Average
2/3/2017

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12334/0302usdjpyH4.png[IMG]

We’ve got a “Hammer”, an “Engulfing” and a “Tweezers”, which all have been confirmed. Also, there’s a bearish “Advance Block”, so the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test the last low once again.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12334/0302usdjpyH1.png

The last “Hammer” and “Inverted Hammer” have pushed the price towards the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the next Moving Average line, which could be a departure point to another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12334

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 2 ended
2/3/2017

The price has come back under 8/8 MM Level, so wave 2 was likely ended in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave . In this case, the main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave [c] has been ended near +1/8 MM Level. Considering that 8/8 MM Level has been broken, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) of in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12335

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD falling inside impulse waves (3) and ③
2/3/2017

GBP/AUD falling inside impulse waves (3) and ③
Next sell target – 1.6050
GBP/AUD has been under bearish pressure following the earlier double reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.6750 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) from the start of January.

GBP/AUD is expected to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) (which is a part of the long-term downward impulse ③ from January) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.6050 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12336

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4100
2/3/2017

EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4100
Next sell targets - 1.4000 and 1.3900
EUR/AUD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the powerful support zone surrounding the support level 1.4100, which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from the end of October, as can be seen below. The breakout of the support level 1.4100 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January (which started when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 1.4300, previous sell target).

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.3900.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12337

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, February 7th
2/7/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Tuesday after 01:45 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 30 344 ? + 37 294 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0763; 1.0781; 1.0797; 1.0825
Closest support levels 1.0710; 1.0691; 1.0666; 1.0637
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0710, with target points at 1.0691 and 1.0666
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0763 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0781 and 1.0797


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 939 ? + 2 247 ?
Closest resistance levels 111.99; 112.22; 112.57; 112.82
Closest support levels 111.62; 111.36; 111.09; 110.63
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short USD/JPY below 111.62, with target points at 111.36 and 111.09
Alternative scenario Moving above 111.99 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 112.22 and 112.57


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 321 ? + 52 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3101; 1.3130; 1.3156; 1.3194
Closest support levels 1.3084; 1.3051; 1.3031; 1.3002
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3101, with the target points at 1.3130 and 1.3156
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3084 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3051 and 1.3031

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12362

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 7
2/7/2017

The euro fared worse than the US dollar in the course of the past sessions after French far-right candidate Marin Le Pen pledged to take France out of the EU and rebuild country’s industry. ECB President Mario Draghi had to beat back numerous rebukes from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation saying that the central bank hadn’t intervened in currency market since 2011. At the same time, he tried to assure the market that the ECB will continue its bond-purchase program to revive the economic growth of the European countries. EUR/USD fell to 1.0700 on Tuesday from its yesterday’s high located at 1.0750.

Among other currencies, the yen was the strongest performer having strengthened to 111.60 yen against the USD overnight. Earlier today, the US dollar managed to regain its bullish momentum and advanced to 111.85.

Aussie jumped to 0.7680 on the Reserve Bank of Australia rate announcement. The bank left its cash rate unchanged as it was forecasted; the Governor Lowe’s statement pictured a rather bright future for the Australian economy. Economic growth is expected to center around 3% for the next couple of years; inflation is to climb to the bank’s coveted 2% target over 2017. The bank’s Governor also noted that Chinese economy has become stronger in the second half of 2016, while the global economic picture has improved; heightened commodity prices allowed Australia to improve its terms of trade.

Kiwi spiked to 0.7375 after New Zealand’s inflation expectations data was stronger than in the previous quarter. Later today we will receive the NZ GDT price index.

USD/CAD rose above 1.3105 on the session. Brent oil futures are higher today, while on Monday they experienced their biggest one-day losses since January 18. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian trade balance data and a monthly update of the number of building permits. Upbeat releases may offer some support to the weakening loonie.

Gold surrendered some of its yesterday’s gains, having slipped to $1234.05 from its three-month high located at $1235.32.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12363

 

[riki143]

Gold: bulls gathered momentum
2/7/2017

On the daily chart of gold, the bulls accelerated their pace. The recent resistance located at $1220 per ounce has become the main support. The nearest convergence zone is located at $1249-1255.

On the hourly chart of gold, the upward trading channel has steepened; the slope increased from 18 to 38 degrees. This may lead to the rollback on the breakout of the splash in the pattern "Splash and reversal with acceleration". The target 200% ($1257 per ounce) in the AB=CD pattern is still relevant. This allows the "bulls" to count on the continuation of the uptrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12364

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie made friends with wedges
2/7/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, "bulls" managed to keep the quotes within a long-term rising channel. The Wolf waves have been formed. A breakout of the 2-4 diagonal resistance near the 1.3175 mark can lead to the restoration of the "bullish" trend.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern is almost formed. A rollback towards 38.2% and 23.6% levels formed from the waves 4-5 can be used for opening the long positions. A breakout of the last high at 1.3135 can lead to the continuation of the rally.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,3135 SL 1,3080 TP 1,3305,

BUY 1,3175 SL 1,3120 TP1 1,3305 TP2 1,34.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12365

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to move on
2/7/2017

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is testing the lower side of the current “Rising Wedge” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.0669. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.0774 – 1.0732.

The uptrend is acting as a support. So, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0678 – 1.0670 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0719 – 1.0732.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12366

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" led to decline
2/7/2017

The price is consolidating near the broken local uptrend. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support. However, the pair is likely going to continue falling down in the short term, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.2411 – 1.2386 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2548.

The last “Pennant” has been broken, so the price faced a support at 1.2432. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.2411 – 1.2386. If we see a pullback from these level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.2490 – 1.2518.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12367

 

[riki143]

Ahead of Abe-Trump meeting
2/7/2017

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to meet US President Donald Trump on Friday seeking to counter the president’s criticism of Japan’s monetary and trade policies. Mr. Abe is going to establish close ties with new administration promising greater Japanese investments in the US economy. In addition, he plans to persuade the US president that Japan is not trying to devalue its nation’s currency to make the business easier for Japanese exporters. PM Abe said that the BoJ’s loose monetary policy is aimed at defeating deflation, not at improving the country’s terms of trade.

In the first week of the presidency, Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal having called it a disaster for his beloved land. Mr. Abe is betting on the conclusion of the bilateral trade pact promising economic and strategic benefits for Japan and the US. But the possibility of negotiating this deal has not been discussed specifically.

Strategists’ opinion on how this meeting may influence the nations’ currencies is divided. Some analysts believe that it will pose some upside risks for the yen, as the Japanese currency proved to be very sensitive to any criticism of the BoJ’s easing monetary policies. Another group of FX market’s analysts bets on the strengthening of the USD pointing at the US benefits from the partnership with Japan (new job openings in the US, the creation of the new markets worth $450 bln). We believe that the outcome of the meeting will help us to identify the accurate direction of the USD/JPY currency pair. For the present moment, we may consider trading other pairs with JPY, USD in the names counting on the evaluation of the both currencies.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12369

 

[riki143]

Ahead of Abe-Trump meeting
2/7/2017

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to meet US President Donald Trump on Friday seeking to counter the president’s criticism of Japan’s monetary and trade policies. Mr. Abe is going to establish close ties with new administration promising greater Japanese investments in the US economy. In addition, he plans to persuade the US president that Japan is not trying to devalue its nation’s currency to make the business easier for Japanese exporters. PM Abe said that the BoJ’s loose monetary policy is aimed at defeating deflation, not at improving the country’s terms of trade.

In the first week of the presidency, Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal having called it a disaster for his beloved land. Mr. Abe is betting on the conclusion of the bilateral trade pact promising economic and strategic benefits for Japan and the US. But the possibility of negotiating this deal has not been discussed specifically.

Strategists’ opinion on how this meeting may influence the nations’ currencies is divided. Some analysts believe that it will pose some upside risks for the yen, as the Japanese currency proved to be very sensitive to any criticism of the BoJ’s easing monetary policies. Another group of FX market’s analysts bets on the strengthening of the USD pointing at the US benefits from the partnership with Japan (new job openings in the US, the creation of the new markets worth $450 bln). We believe that the outcome of the meeting will help us to identify the accurate direction of the USD/JPY currency pair. For the present moment, we may consider trading other pairs with JPY, USD in the names counting on the evaluation of the both currencies.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12369

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound tested the support
2/7/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2340; resistance – 1.2450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2340/50; SL — 1.2320; TP1 — 1.2450; TP2 — 1.2480.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but there is falling lines; the prices are in the Cloud and on the main support.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12370

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar going to Tenkan-sen
2/7/2017

Technical levels: support – 111.80; resistance – 112.50, 112.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 112.50; SL — 112.70; TP1 — 111.80; TP2 — 111.30.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are in correction to Tenkan-Kijun.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12371

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Harami" on the lower "Window"
2/7/2017

We’ve got a bearish “Doji”, which has been confirmed, so the price reached the lower “Window”. If we see any bullish pattern afterwards, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance level.

The price achieved the nearest “Window”, so we’ve got a bullish “Harami”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12373