Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Morning brief report for December 29
12/29/2016

EUR/USD rose to 1.0460 on the typical for the year-end profit-taking. The US 10-year bond yields dropped towards 2.4930 – it’s their lowest levels in 2 weeks. The Eurozone yields also extended their losses, but to a lesser extent. This happens mainly because of the insufficient strength of a bailout plan for Italian banks.

USD/JPY slumped to 116.50 nearly reaching the support 116.45 (100 H4 MA). The US weak home sales data released yesterday can be blamed for the massive selloff of the US dollar. Later today we will receive the US unemployment claims report, good trade balance that may bring some changes to the chart. On the upside, there are some hurdles located at 116.90 (Ichimoku Tenkan-sen on the hourly timeframe), 117.00, 117.30 (100=hour MA).

GBP/USD edged up to 1.2246 after hitting its lowest level of 1.2200 in 2 months. The Institute of Public Policy Research published its report on the future economic prospects of the UK. Analysts predict the Britain might face a decade of disruptions following the Brexit with a stagnating economy, low incomes for the poor and rising non-white population. The report’s author, Mathew Lawrence, notes that new barriers to trade that can be introduced upon the EU-UK separation will drive the pound down. Government finances will reach a breaking point under the strain of the National Health service and pension spending as the British population ages and the Brexit may lead to the reduction of the tax base.

Aussie continues its rally towards the resistance located at 0.7020 (near the 50 H4 MA). AUD/USD maintains its bullish momentum due to the widespread weakening of the greenback and a rather smooth trading in commodity markets. USD/CAD fell to 1.3520 despite the dip in oil prices. Brent oil futures slipped to $56.80 as soon as the US crude inventories data released yesterday showed a build in oil stockpiles.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11887

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Thorn" stopped bears
12/29/2016

The main trend is bearish, so the last “Wedge” pattern has been broken. However, the price faced a support at 1.0373, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0506 – 1.0524 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0340.

The last “V-Bottom” pattern pushed the price to a resistance at 1.0451. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0498 – 1.0506 in the short term. If we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to get a support on the 34 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11888

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" led to correction
12/29/2016

Bears faced a support at 1.2205, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern here. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.2270 – 1.2309. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction later on.

The lower side of the last “Wedge” pattern has been broken. However, there’s a local “Triple Bottom” pattern, so bulls are likely going to reach an area between the 55 Moving Average and the closest resistance at 1.2295. If a pullback from these levels be on the table, bears will have a chance to reach a support at 1.2198 – 1.2170.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11889

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, December 29th
12/29/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 25 173 ↑ + 56 113 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.0466; 1.0508; 1.0526; 1.0551/65
Closest support levels 1.0413; 1.0394; 1.0368; 1.0352
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0413, with target points at 1.0394 and 1.0368
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0466 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0508 and 1.0526

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 433 ↑ + 184 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.2293; 1.2310; 1.2332; 1.2359
Closest support levels 1.2241(36?); 1.2220; 1.2207(?); 1.2189
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2241, with target points at 1.2220 and 1.2207
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2293 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2310 and 1.2332

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 138 ↑ + 91 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3552; 1.3570; 1.3604; 1.3656
Closest support levels 1.3517; 1.3493; 1.3454; 1.3412
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3552, with the target points at 1.3570 and 1.3604
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3517 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3493 and 1.3454

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11891

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish impulse in wave (c) of [ii]
12/29/2016

The last bearish impulse in wave has ended on 1/8 MM Level, so the price is moving up in wave [ii]. If we see a pullback from 2/8 MM Level, bears are likely going to deliver wave [iii]. In this case we should keep an eye on -1/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target.

We’ve got a pullback from 0/8 MM Level, so there’s a bullish impulse in wave (c) of [ii], which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The nearest target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11892

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for 2017
12/29/2016

The British pound fell in 2016 against other major currencies firstly after British people voted in June for their nation to leave the European Union and then as the Bank of England slashed its interest rates and unveiled monetary stimulus package. The regulator’s goal was to support the UK economy and prevent the imminent recession. In the following months, British economy performed better than expected, so the central bank adopted a wait-and-see approach saying that further actions will depend on the UK macroeconomic data.

Since November, the long-term interest rates have risen internationally reflecting the markets’ expectation of the heightened inflation rates in 2017. The Fed – a monetary policy trendsetter – projected three rate hikes next year. The Bank of England’s Committee showed its readiness to shoot in either direction – that is to cut or raise interest rates depending on the post-Brexit effects. Higher inflation will make central bank raise rates, while economic concerns will be a reason to cut rates. The BoE expects the UK inflation rate to rise to its 2% target within 6 months. But many analysts question the adequacy of this forecast saying that the pace of inflation rates envisaged in the November Inflation Report should be slower.

Britain’s Supreme Court is expected to deliver in January its decision on whether the government has the authority to trigger Article 50 and launch the process of the EU-UK separation without an act of Parliament. It seems that the legal hurdles arising from the Brexit process keep the UK currency afloat. If the Court does rule the government must seek parliamentary approval, it will definitely delay the Brexit process beyond the prime-minister May’s end-March target. That will spur the pound’s growth. If the UK legislators are not given a stronger voice in the Brexit process, the pound will be poised to precipitous downfall. The failure of Brexit negotiators to retain access to the European single market should hurt the pound’s exchange rate as well. Note, though, that as GBP is still significantly below levels seen before the Brexit vote, much of the negative has already been priced in and in the longer term lower pound should be positive for the UK economy.

The technical picture of the GBP/USD at the present moment is neutral. The quotes may keep moving between 1.20 and 1.28. When the uncertainty over the Brexit process dissipates, the pair will be able to find further direction. On the upside, resistance is at 1.3490 (50-week MA). On the downside, the bears will have to do their best to break support at 1.2000. If they succeed, GBP/USD will enter levels unseen for a couple of decades.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11893

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for 2017
12/29/2016

Aussie made a big swing in the course of the past year starting on a rather merry note and ending with a fizzle. AUD/USD slumped to its multi-month low on the US election outcome and the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike. All in all, by the end of 2016 the pair returned to the area where it started the year.

The long-term outlook for AUD/USD is bearish. There is a great number of fundamental factors that might send the Aussie lower. First and utmost it is the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Most analysts expect additional cash rates cuts from the RBA next year to prevent the increase of unemployment affected by a reduction in housing construction works. In contrast, the US central bank is expected to raise its interest rate in 2017. The numerous risks surrounding China – Australia’s major trading partner – may contribute to the Aussie’s downfall. In the recent time, higher commodity prices have provided support for Australian currency, but their moderation may weigh on the Aussie’s growth.

The technical picture for AUD/USD is neutral. The prices may rebound from the present levels if they fail to breach the support located at 0.7100. On the upside, a few resistances can be found at 0.7450 (crossover of the 50- and 100-week MAs), 0.7750 and 0.7900 (200-week MA). If our fundamental analysis for the pair is realized, we expect the quotes to go down to 0.6820 (2016 low) and probably 0.6500.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11894

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Shooting Star" stopped bullish rally
12/29/2016

The price is testing the 34 Moving Average. If we see any bearish pattern on this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible “Engulfing” pattern, so bulls will probably try to push the market even higher.

There’s a “Shooting Star” at the local low, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, if we see a pullback from the achieved resistance, the pair is likely going to decline during the day.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11895

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "High Wave" pushing the market higher
12/29/2016

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Three Black Crows”, which both have been confirmed enough. If we see any bullish pattern in the coming hours, there’ll be a chance to have a local upward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s an “Engulfing”, so an upward correction is likely going to be continued.

There’s a “High Wave” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to rise in the short term. However, if a pullback from the 13 Moving Average happens, there’ll be an option to have another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11896

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD rising inside minor corrective wave 2
12/29/2016

NZD/CAD rising inside minor corrective wave 2
Next buy target - 0.9500
NZD/CAD continues to rise strongly inside the minor corrective wave 2 – which earlier broke through the resistance trendline of the daily Falling Wedge from the start of November. The active wave 2 started when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.9230, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from April.

NZD/CAD is be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.9500 (top of the previous (b)-wave and the target price calculated for the termination of the active correction 2).

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11897/NZDCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Dec-29_1620_PM_(1_day).png[/MG]

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11897]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11897[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF reversed from long-term resistance level 1.0320

USD/CHF reversed from long-term resistance level 1.0320
Next sell target - 1.0320
USD/CHF has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 1, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the major long-term resistance level 1.0320 (which stopped the previous primary Ⓐ-wave at the end of 2015, as can be seen from the weekly USD/CHF chart below).

This is the third consecutive week that the pair is reversed down from the aforementioned resistance level 1.0320. Given the overbought reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - USD/CHF is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.2000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11898

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead of New Year Eve: Preparing the ground to reach the parity in 2017?
12/30/2016

Market’s volume is getting lower as 2016 is coming to an end. That’s why we’ve witnessed some take profiting’s price action in various assets. Today’s session could see some slight moves in order to prepare the overall structure for receive the new year. That’s why the currencies pairs, such as EUR/USD, are performing corrective moves in favor of the major trend and that action could be last for a least one or two weeks.

Our technical analysis in the short term for EUR/USD at H1 chart is showing a very strong recovery above the 200 SMA and now it’s attempting to consolidate above the 1.0490 handle. If the pair manages to break above that area, then we can expect another rally towards the 1.0547 level, which is a key area for sellers across the boars, while a pullback should find support around 1.0433, where a dynamic bottom can be found.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11899

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 30
12/30/2016

EUR/USD spiked to 1.0653 in the course of the Asian session (its biggest intraday gain since early November). The US dollar slackened on the year-end profit-taking. There wasn’t any news hitting the wires. Italy’s government is going to bailout the country’s banks. The senior officials are puzzled what made the ECB double its estimate of the capital shortfall for Monte dei Paschi di Siena. We don’t expect much zest from the prices today.

USD/JPY is trading near the 116.70. The upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe is acting as a resistance. The US bond yields which have been rising since the US presidential election made a reversal and went in the opposite direction towards 2.467 from its last-week peak at 2.650.

GBP/USD edged up to 1.2280. The currency pair plunged to its three-decades low after the British people voted to leave the EU. The UK macroeconomic data showed a certain degree of resilience and offered a modest support to GBP. Many analysts believe that the sterling will be rather strong until the hard Brexit scenario comes into play.

AUD/USD ticked up on the weakening of the greenback. Keep in focus Chicago PMI coming from the US later today. The index should not bring big moves to the chart, however.

Kiwi retraced from 0.6980 to 0.6950 on the Asian session.

USD/CAD slumped to 1.3455 due to the rising oil prices and falling US dollar. Brent futures soared to $57.10. Oil prices gained 51% in the course of this year due to the OPEC and other producing countries commitments to cut their output.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11900

 

[riki143]

Happy New Year to all traders!
12/30/2016

Here is the end of another choppy year that brought a great many of peaks and troughs to our technical charts. There were many joys and sorrows we will be nostalgic for, many turnaround events that will be stamped in our memories. May your gut feeling never go back on you, your setups be always profitable, and your financial accounts get fat next year!
FX BAZOOKA analytical team wishes you a Happy New Year and sends you this virtual greeting card!

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11901

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, December 30th
12/30/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 47 861 ? + 183 855 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0527; 1.0557; 1.0572; 1.0592
Closest support levels 1.0486; 1.0469; 1.0446; 1.0416
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0486, with target points at 1.0469 and 1.0446
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0527 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0557 and 1.0572

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 163 ? + 183 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2294; 1.2319; 1.2338; 1.2363
Closest support levels 1.2263(68?); 1.2246; 1.2211; 1.2186
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2263, with target points at 1.2246 and 1.2211
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2294 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2319 and 1.2338

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 68 ? + 53 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3501; 1.3526; 1.3546; 1.3570
Closest support levels 1.3470; 1.3455; 1.3426; 1.3380
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3470, with the target points at 1.3455 and 1.3426
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3501 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3526 and 1.3546

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11902

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: final shooting of Euro
12/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0510, 1.0480, 1.0420; resistance – 1.0620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0520; SL — 1.0540; TP1 — 1.0480; TP2 – 1.0420.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud; the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; strong resistance on 1.0620 and the bulls are unsuccessfully tested this region.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11903

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound tested a SSA’s resistance
12/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2250/60, 1.2230; resistance – 1.2310.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2260; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2150; TP2 — 1.2090.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a temporary cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the bulls are tested the SSA resistance.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11904

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish party ended by "Thorn"
12/30/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0373, so we’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which has been confirmed. So, bulls reached a resistance at 1.0669, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0498 – 1.0461. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0594 – 1.0655.

All Moving Averages have been broken, but bulls were stopped by a resistance at 1.0655. Therefore, a “Thorn” pattern formed, so the price tested a support at 1.0524. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.0489 – 1.0478 during the day. If a pullback from these levels happens, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.0578 – 1.0604.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11905

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Bottom" led to rise
12/30/2016

The price found a support at 1.2205, which led to form a “Double Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the price broke the last “Pennant’s” high. In this case, bulls are likely going to move on towards the 34 Moving Average. Considering a possible pullback from this line, there’s an opportunity to have a local decline afterwards.

We’ve got a confirmed “Double Bottom”, so there’s a bullish correction, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The 89 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so the price is consolidating. However, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2323 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.2295 – 1.2270.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11906

 

[riki143]

2017 – another bumpy year for gold?
12/30/2016

This year was extremely bumpy for the gold prices. In the beginning of 2016, gold prices were rising rapidly driven by the low/negative interest rates in many developed countries. The result of the UK referendum on the country’s membership in the EU accelerated the pace of gold prices. Then, the quotes had to retrace as markets anticipated an increase in the US interest rates. Another fundamental factor that weighed on the growth of gold prices is a divergence between the supply/demand of gold.

Gold prices hit a six-year low after the announcement of Trump’s victory. Afterward, investors’ sentiments in relation to the US dollar have radically changed. USD got a boost and jumped to its multi-year high. In contrast, gold prices started to fall precipitously; the Fed’s December rate increase sent quotes even lower, but then, gold prices managed to partially recoup their losses due to the weakening stock market and doubts over further benchmark increases.

Next year shouldn’t radically change from its predecessor. 2017 might bring lots of peaks and dips to the technical chart. In the first half of the year, gold can lose some points given the fact that stock markets are becoming very bullish; the yield curves might continue steepening internationally and the Fed may recourse to additional tightening measures. Higher interest rates tend to increase the value of the US dollar and make gold less attractive for profit-seeking investors.

As soon as we approach a period of the parliamentary/presidential elections in the Eurozone countries, the gold may get a boost (gold is a safe-haven asset, rapidly appreciating in times of market shocks and political crises).

For the present moment, the technical picture for the gold is bullish. There is a crossover of 50 and 200 MAs on the weekly timeframe signaling of the bullish reversal of the trend. The nearest supports on the upside are located at 1210.68 (the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud), 1255.60. If the US dollar continues its rally in the first quarter of 2017, the gold prices may slide down towards the nearest supports lying at 1121.40 (mid-December low) and 1044.75 (November low).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11907