Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] on the way
12/27/2016

There’s wave [ii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [iii]. In this case, we should keep an eye on -1/8 MM Level as a possible bearish goal.

We’ve got a bullish impulse in wave (a) and a double three pattern, which could be wave (b). Previously, the price tested 5/8 MM Level twice. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have wave (c) of [ii] in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11866

 

[riki143]

EUR/CHF reached buy target 1.0750
12/27/2016

EUR/CHF reached buy target 1.0750
Next buy target - 1.0800
EUR/CHF continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance level 1.0750, which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.0750 is expected to accelerate the active minor corrective wave (ii) – which started recently from the key support area located between the support levels 1.0680 and 1.0700.

EUR/CHF is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0800, intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous downward impulse from the start of September.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11867

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF reversed from support zone
12/27/2016

USD/CHF reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.0340
USD/CHF continues to rise inside the b-wave of the minor ABC correction (ii) – which started earlier from the resistance level 1.0340. The active b-wave started when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer from the support zone lying between the strong resistance level 1.0210 (previous monthly high from November) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse (i).

USD/CHF is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0340 (which stopped the aforementioned impulse wave (i), as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11868

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & Pending Home Sales for November: What about the triangle consolidation?
12/28/2016

Today at 15:00 GMT will be released the US Pending Home Sales for November and we can expect an increase to 0.6% from 0.1% according to the latest analysts’ surveys. The data had been showing a mixed number during the last five months, so it’s probable to see a little reaction in the markets, especially in the US Dollar-related pairs. A weaker-than-expected data should help to fuel the bearish bias in the greenback across the board.

Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart is showing a bullish consolidation within a triangle pattern. However, current price action is below the 200 SMA and it can help to produce bearish technical moves in order to test the 117.15 level. If the pair manages to break the triangle consolidation, it can go to test the 118.00 handle, while a break of the 117.15 level should help the pair to plummet towards the 116.56 zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11869

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls are going launch the attack once again
12/28/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, quotes come closer to an important level of 1.3570. "Bulls" failed to test it at the first attempt in November. If they succeed this time, then we can talk about the restoration of the uptrend. There are some targets locates at 1.3837 (61.8% Fibonacci level of the last downward wave) and 1.3930 (target 161.8% in the pattern AB = CD).

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, bulls regained control over the pair. The quotes moved above the 88.6% Fibonacci level of the last upward wave. The level of 1,353 serves as a key support.

Recommendation: hold longs formed from 1,353.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11870

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: there is a continuation of the uptrend
12/28/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is a consolidation of the uptrend. A breakout of the resistance at 1.0320 can lead to the continuation of the rally. "Crab" and AB = CD patterns are still valid; there are several targets in the upward trend located at 1.0370, 1.0460, 1.0490 and 1.0780 marks. Alternatively, if quotes go below the support located at 1.022 it may lead to the development of the correction towards 1.0090.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the further movements will depend on whether pair manages to go beyond the triangle or not. The nearest support is located around 1.0120 and 1.0000.

Recommendation: BUY 1,032 SL 1,0265 TP1 1,046 TP2 1,049.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11871

 

[riki143]

EUR /USD: the bears got in the bears' trap
12/28/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation within the range of 1,039-1,05. The nearest significant resistance level is located near the 1,053 mark. An update of the December minimum may lead to the continuation of the downtrend towards 1.0115 (Target 200% pattern AB = CD) and 0.985 (Target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern).

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of the expanding wedge pattern. A successful test of the resistance near the 1.05 mark can lead to the development of the correction towards 1.055 and 1.0615. In contrast, the return of quotes to the 1.0365 level will create the prerequisites for the restoration of the downtrend.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,0365 SL 1,042 TP 1,0115,

SELL 1,055 SL 1,0615 TP 1,0365.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11872

 

[riki143]

Gold prices are still consolidating
12/28/2016

On the daily chart of gold, the "bulls" are trying to launch the attack. However, until quotes are below the resistance at $1,172 (61.8% Fibonacci level formed from the last upward wave); the "bears" remain their control over the pair. Target 161.8% in the "Butterfly" pattern is still relevant.

On the hourly chart of gold, there is a consolidation in the range of $1,127-1,144. Breakout of the upper boundary will increase the risk of the correction in the direction of $1,165. In contrast, a successful test of the support will create the preconditions for the continuation of the downtrend towards $1,090.

Recommendations:

SELL $1165 SL $1172 TP $1127,

SELL $1127 SL $1134 TP $1090.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11873

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 28
12/28/2016

It seems that somebody delivered a portion of 100% arabica to financial and commodity markets as they manage to wake up from the deep sleep. There were some small movements across the trading desk.

EUR/USD climbed higher to 1.0468 on the Asian session. The US dollar may drag pair a little bit lower if market’s expectation over the upbeat US pending home sales release are justified.

USD/JPY was lifted to 117.66 after we got upbeat US consumer confidence data. The bulls will remain control over the market until we get some ground-shaking news from the US (if you see in headlines something like: “Trump’s administration refuses to introduce fiscal stimulus; the Fed backpedals and discards its triple hikes promise”). At the present moment, we can sleep with a quiet mind and buy the greenback on its reoccurring dips.

Aussie realized that it’s a high time to hit the deck and jumped to 0.7210 vs. USD on the bullish commodity market. Iron ore prices moved 3.3% higher hitting $81.60 mark. Shanghai zinc and nickel prices moved in the same direction. If this momentum is maintained Aussie has all chances for the continuation of its rally.

NZD/USD breached the support at 0.6925 level due to the rising commodity prices. Oil futures are rather firm; they managed to strengthen and move higher to $57.15 as trading resumed after the Christmas holiday. Oil should move higher in to the year-end on the expectations of scantier supply once the first output cuts are enacted.

Loonie is insensitive to the oil’s gains. USD/CAD continues its northward rally. Although there were some dips. It means that CAD fights to the death with beefy US dollar.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11874

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: still in correction mood
12/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0460, 1.0425; resistance – 1.0515.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0460; SL — 1.0480; TP1 — 1.0340; TP2 – 1.0310.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance on 1.0460.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11875

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls gone to attack
12/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 117.40; resistance – 118.70, 119.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 117.40; SL — 117.20; TP1 — 118.70; TP2 — 119.20.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the narrow channel of Tenkan and Kijun; the prices are on the Cloud’s support.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11876

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Wedge"
12/28/2016

The price is still consolidating on the four-hours chart. Also, there’s a “Wedge” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.0373 – 1.0340. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.0419 – 1.0461.

We’ve got a pullback from the lower side of the last “Wedge” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0498 – 1.0506 in the short term. At the same time, bears will probably try to test a support between the levels 1.0431 – 1.0419.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11877

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" highlights to another decline
12/28/2016

There’s a flat, which is taking place between a support at 1.2227 and a resistance at 1.2309. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2358.

We’ve got a “Wedge” pattern, so the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If bulls be stopped on this line, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205 in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11878

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, December 28th

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 9 665 ? + 24 104 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0509; 1.0544; 1.0561; 1.0582/95
Closest support levels 1.0451; 1.0429; 1.0400; 1.0382
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0451, with target points at 1.0429 and 1.0400
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0509 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0544 and 1.0561

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 199 ? + 263 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2344; 1.2361; 1.2383; 1.2409
Closest support levels 1.2283; 1.2259; 1.2241; 1.2217
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2283, with target points at 1.2259 and 1.2241
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2344 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2361 and 1.2383

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 97 ? - 34 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3583; 1.3611; 1.3631; 1.3654
Closest support levels 1.3530; 1.3504; 1.3461; 1.3398
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3583, with the target points at 1.3611 and 1.3631
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3530 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3504 and 1.3461

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11880

 

[riki143]

Annual forecasts for emerging market currencies
12/28/2016

As we approach a rather volatile year for the G10 currencies, you might consider switching to its emerging markets homologues as some of the latter ones are expected to do better in 2017 than they used to in turbulent 2016. And the “some” word will be the key one here because there are also several “non-some” emerging market currencies that are expected to be a disappointment next year. Let us bring you up to date on the most profitable and the most disappointing emerging market currencies of 2017.

Chinese yuan

China’s yuan fits better into the group of underperforming currencies. Until recently, China’s currency was a rather good Forex investment because of the tremendous growth of the Chinese economy. In the last decade, the People's Republic of China was developing at rapid-fire pace. As you know the value of a currency is based on the economic performance of the country of its issuance. China’s trade volumes and perspectives for the further economic development are put at risk. So, CNY is probably entering in a rather hefty period of time. The bears will definitely include it in their 2017 task list.

Prospects for Mexican peso and Turkish lira

MXN was an emerging currency that used to perform quite well until the US presidential election. With the Donald Trump’s intention to fall apart NAFTA, the MXN is poised for a precipitous downfall in the upcoming year.

The outlook for the TRY is not bright as well. The nation’s economy may slow to a standstill in the upcoming year. The numerous troubled political circumstances dashed nation’s hopes for the Turkish economic miracle.

Your safe havens

So, with China, Turkey and Mexico being under pressure next year, we are left with just a few emerging market currencies to watch.

We would recommend you to focus on the IDR – Indonesia Rupiah. The country’s young population is actively earning and willing to earn more. Indonesia economy has a high potential for the economic growth. So, it would be a good option for investment in 2017.

The same could be said about Nigeria as its government is eager to develop infrastructure in the country and increase the availability of jobs. So, we see an uptick going forward in the exchange rate of Nigerian naira.

Another good investment is the Philippine Peso (PHP), simply because the Philippine economy is doing well and has all chances for the growth. This is due to the country’s new president – Duterte (Philippine's Trump) who is determined to lift Philippine economy to a higher level.

Neutrality

The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in November willing to support the nation’s economy in the period of greater economic uncertainties. The THB has weakened significantly because of the recent portfolio outflows. External factors will continue to dominate the local FX market. A smooth transition of powers to Thailand’s Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn and steady political conditions will offer a modest support to the THB in its fight against the meaty greenback.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11881[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "flat" in wave (b)
12/28/2016

The price is still developing wave [ii], which is likely going to be continued in the short term. So, we should keep an eye on 2/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave [iii].

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible flat pattern in wave (b), so bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave c of (b). At the same time, bulls will probably try to test 6/8 MM Level afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11882

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tweezers" led to decline
12/28/2016

There’s a resistance by the 34 Moving Average, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” on this line, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support. If we have a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Shooting Star” and a “Doji” on the last local high, so there’s an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed enough. In this case, the price is likely going to falling down towards the nearest support level during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11883

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to push the price even higher
12/28/2016

We’ve got a “Tweezers”, which has been confirmed enough. Also, there’s a bullish “Three Methods” pattern, so bulls are likely going to test the upper “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing” at the last local low. If this pattern confirms, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high.

The 13 Moving Average acted as a support, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” on this line, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, right after a local correction, bulls are likely going to continue moving up towards the last high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11884

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD reversed from resistance zone
12/28/2016

EUR/USD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.0350
EUR/USD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started previously from the resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 1.0500, 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of December and the former support trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from May (acting as resistance now after it was broken).

EUR/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0350 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i), as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11885

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3590
12/28/2016

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3590
Next buy target - 1.3700
USD/CAD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the key resistance level 1.3590 (which stopped the earlier intermediate impulse wave (1) November and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is expected to accelerate the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) from the middle of December.

With the daily Momentum approaching yearly highs - USD/CAD can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.3700.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11886