Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: support waiting for bears
12/26/2016

The price faced a support at 1.2270, so the price is consolidating. If we have any reversal pattern, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have an upward correction afterwards.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached the 34 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.2227 – 1.2205 as a possible bearish target. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an option to have a correction in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2385.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11843

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end on 2/8 MM Level
12/26/2016

The last pullback from 1/8 MM Level led to an upward correction, so we have wave [ii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Previously a bearish impulse in wave has been formed. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline in wave [iii].

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (b) is taking form of a double zigzag. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave (c) of [ii] in the short term. If we see another pullback from 6/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish impulse.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11845

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears relaxing in a flat
12/26/2016

We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, the nearest “Three Methods” is likely going to act as a support. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, so bulls will probably try to move on.

The price is still consolidating on the one-hour chart. Also, the 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to continue moving up and down in a flat range.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11846

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: correction on the way
12/26/2016

The last “Engulfing” pattern is still on the table, so the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “High Wave” and a “Harami” at the local high, which both led to the current decline. However, if we see any bullish pattern, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high.

The price has reached the middle of the last huge white candle. However, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the pair is likely going to continue falling down until any bullish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11847

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF falling inside minor (c)-wave
12/26/2016

CAD/CHF falling inside minor (c)-wave
Next sell target - 0.7500
CAD/CHF has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the (c)-wave of the minor ABC correction 2, which started earlier from the resistance zone surrounding the long-term resistance level 0.7740 (which also recently reversed the previous intermediate (A)-wave in April, as can be seen below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7740 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

CAD/CHF is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 0.7500 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse wave 1 from the start of November).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11848

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
12/26/2016

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.0375
AUD/NZD continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0500 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse 1 from the middle of October. The downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October.

AUD/NZD is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the next support level 1.0375, which reversed the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in November, as can be seen below.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11849

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead of CB Consumer Confidence (December): nothing major is expected
12/27/2016

After Christmas holidays, we’ll have today at 15:00 GMT the CB Consumer Confidence’s data for December, which is expected to see an increase to 108.5 from 107.1 (November). If we notice a good number that could tell us further consumer spending’s increase is coming, we can see some volatile moves in the US Dollar-related pairs, despite low volumes of trading ahead of New Year’s eve, while a weak data should fuel to the bears in USD across the board.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still showing a very sideways’ picture around 200 SMA and the support zone of 1.0431 is helping the bulls to remain alive in the battle, before the end of the year. If the pair plunges below that area, the next key interest area to the downside should be the 1.0397 and that scenario will happen if the number comes above the expectations. However, if EUR/USD breaks above the 1.0476 zone, then it can test the 1.0517 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11850

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: bulls are launching the attack
12/27/2016

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. The "bulls" remain their control over the pair heading into the convergence zone. There is 113% target in the "Butterfly" pattern. A successful test of the resistance at 123.4 can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 125,3-125,8 (50% Fibo level from the last downward wave - 127.2% target in the "Butterfly" pattern).

Recommendation: BUY 123,16 SL 122,61 TP1 124,8 TP2 125,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11851

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD: nobody wanted to surrender
12/27/2016

On the AUD/CAD daily chart, there is a desperate battle for the important level located at 0.973 (61.8% Fibonacci level from the last upward wave). If "bears" win, the update of the December minimum can send quotes lower towards 0.941. There is 88.6% target in the "Shark" pattern. A breakout of the upper boundary of the 0,9675-0,976 consolidation range will allow the "bulls" to develop correction towards 0.986.

On the AUD/CAD hourly chart, there is a formation of the expanding wedge reversal pattern. A return of quotes towards the resistance at 0.976 will create the prerequisites for a correction.

Recommendations:

BUY 0,976 SL 0,9705 TP 0,986,

SELL 0,9685 SL 0,974 TP 0,941.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11852

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls play cat-and-mouse
12/27/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 116,6-118,4 - within the medium-term uptrend. An update of the December peak will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 120.85. The nearest support levels are located near the 116.1 and 114.7 levels.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of the "Splash and shelf" on the base of 1-2-3. A successful test of the upper boundary can lead to the continuation of the rally.

Recommendations:

BUY 118,35 SL 117,8 TP 120,85,

BUY 116,1 SL 115,55 TP 117,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11853

 

[riki143]

Brent: the Gartley pattern will show the
12/27/2016

On the daily chart of the Brent crude oil futures, quotes move within the upward trading channel.The bulls remain control over the pair. To change the trend an expanding wedge pattern should be realized - to send prices lower towards $42.7. At the present moment, however, this scenario cannot be realized. So, we would recommend you to buy on the rollbacks or on the breakouts of the resistances.

On the hourly chart of Brent oil futures, there is a "Gartley" pattern. A rebound from its 78.6% target will increase the risks of the continuation of the consolidation in the $53,2-57,2 range. A breakout will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards $60.5 per barrel.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11854

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 27
12/27/2017

Financial markets are still sleeping with Christmas carols. Trading should be thin this week as the market participants are closing out 2016 volatile year.

EUR/USD slid down to 1.0430 in the early hours of the Asian session as 10-year US Treasury yields extended their gains having partially recovered their yesterday’s losses. Italy is struggling with its banking crisis. ECB told Monte dei Paischi that it needs 8.8 bln euros to plug its capital shortfall. Earlier Italy’s government received the Parliament’s support for the bank’s bailout when private investors had refused to take its losses.

USD/JPY popped up earlier this morning as we got a miss in Japan’s core consumer prices and household spending. The data indicated that Japan’s economy lacks of a significant boost to strike the BoJ’s egregious 2% inflation rate target. Core consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in nearly 4 years showing that fighting deflation is not as easy-peasy as Shinzo Abe thought it would be in 2012. The further movement of the pair should be subdued as the end of 2016 is just several days away. The upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe is holding the yen’s pace. The pair may rise later today if the US releases will be above market’s expectations.

GBP/USD made a baby step lower and then glued to the 1.2270 level. The US CB consumer confidence might send the prices a bit lower towards the nearest support at 1.2490.

Aussie and Kiwi retraced on the strengthening of the US dollar. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3470 overnight on the surging oil prices. Brent oil futures jumped to $55.86 on Tuesday as we approach to the actual OPEC and non-OPEC producers’ output cuts.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11855

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Euro entered into the Cloud
12/27/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0380, 1.0425; resistance – 1.0460, 1.0515.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0420; SL — 1.0440; TP1 — 1.0340; TP2 – 1.0310.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines of the Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance on 1.0460.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11857

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel
12/27/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2260, 1.2230; resistance – 1.2310.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2310; SL — 1.2330; TP1 — 1.2260; TP2 — 1.2230.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the channel of Tenkan-Kijun and on support of Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11858

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: on the Cloud’s support
12/27/2016

Technical levels: support – 117.15; resistance – 117.60, 118.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 117.20; SL — 117.00; TP1 — 118.70; TP2 — 119.20.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span B; a correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the Cloud’s support.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11859

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: correction going to move on
12/27/2016

The price is still consolidating, so the market is likely going to get a support at 1.0419 – 1.0373. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0461 – 1.0506.

We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0419 – 1.0400. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test the closest resistance at 1.0478 – 1.0506.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11860

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to deliver a new low
12/27/2016

The price is consolidating above a support at 1.2227, so bears are likely going to test this level in the short term. If we have a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward correction in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2358.

There’s a “Pennant”, so the price is testing the lower side of this pattern. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205 shortly. If bears be stopped here, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2270 – 1.2309.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11861

 

[riki143]

Banks' projections for 2017
12/27/2016

Morgan Stanley
Buy USD/JPY – low yields on the JGB leads to the capital outflows from japan and sparks the growth of inflation expectations.

Sell EUR/GBP – the news flows from the UK is positive; GBP is underappreciated.

Sell AUD/CAD – the US economic growth will outstrip the growth of China (the US is a key trading partner of Canada; Australian dollar is vulnerable to changes of economic prospects for China)

Buy CHF/JPY – low yields on JGB; CHF is a very good hedge against Eurozone political risks.

NAB

USD should strengthen in 2017 and send Aussie towards 0.7000 mark.

The bank is bearish on AUD. If commodity prices shoot from its present levels and the Fed recourse to multiple hikes, AUD can slide down even lower – towards 0.6500.

NZD/USD will moderate next year. Kiwi will be able to hold its grounds, or even rise in cross-rate terms. New Zealand domestic factors are rather upbringing. The NAB’s strategists believe that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may introduce some tightening measures in the second half of 2017.

There is a great risk of AUD/NZD reaching a parity in 2018 as the NAB is more positive on New Zealand’s economic prospects than on the Australian ones.

Société Générale

Analysts recommend to hold long positions on the US dollar until the first half of the next year; sell EUR/USD; hold short positions on the yen, especially against the US dollar.

Buy NOT (Norwegian Krone) and SEK (Swedish krone) against Kiwi and the yen.

Sell NZD/USD. NZD will be the weakest currency in G10.

BNP Paribas



The bank’s analysts are bearish on the yen. According to them, it will be the weakest currency in 2017 among its 10 major peers. The Bank of Japan’s yield curve targeting strategy poses the greatest risk to the JPY. While in most of G10 economies banks recourse to tightening measure on the back of steepening yield curves, the BoJ sticks firmly to its guns and commits itself to keep the 10 year JGB yield anchored around zero. At some level of yen weakness, the BoJ could rise its target for long-end yields which be an important factor that could designate the limit of JPY downfall.

GBP will outperform most of G10 currencies in 2017, holding steady against a much stronger USD. The current levels of the GBP have already priced in a hard Brexit scenario. The pound is trading very low against its long-term fair value. Next year, the UK economy will have to face with numerous challenges ahead of the actual Brexit.

Goldman Sachs



Highlighting the worsening of the economic environment and uncertainty over the upcoming parliamentary/presidential elections in the different countries of the Eurozone, the Goldman Sachs strategists recommend to buy dollar against the pound and the euro (sell GBP/USD and EUR/USD).

Also, they project the weakening of the yuan.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11862

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Engulfing"
12/27/2016

The price has been consolidating since the last “Shooting Star” formed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a pattern similar to a “Three Methods”. If it confirms, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the pair higher.

There’s a flat, which is taking place on the once-hour chart. Also, the 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. We’ve got an “Engulfing” at the last high, so bears are likely going to test the closest support right after the local correction ends.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11863

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Doji" pushing price higher
12/27/2016

There’s a “Tweezers”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest resistance. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a possible “Engulfing” pattern. If it confirms, bulls will probably try to test the last high.

We’ve got a pullback from the nearest support level, so the price was rising yesterday. Also, there’s a “Doji” at the local low, so the pair is likely going to continue rising. In this case, we could have a new high during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11864[/IMG]