Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a support
12/21/2016

There’s a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, but we’ve got a pattern similar to a “Three Methods”. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the last high.

We’ve got a bearish correction, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Also, there’re a “Tweezers” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, if a pullback from the 55 Moving Average happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11800

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY reached buy target 87.70
12/21/2016

AUD/JPY reached buy target 87.70
Next sell target – 84.60
AUD/JPY has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor corrective wave (ii) – which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from June, upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance level 87.70 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair).

AUD/JPY can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the key support level 84.60, standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse (i) from the middle of November.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11801

 

[riki143]

CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
12/21/2016

CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 86.00
CAD/JPY continues to decline following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the powerful, long-term resistance level 88.75 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor correction 2.

Considering the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - CAD/JPY can be expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 86.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11802

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears started wave [ii]
12/21/2016

We’ve got a bearish impulse in wave , so bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another downward impulse, which could be wave [iii].

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of has been ended on 5/8 MM Level, which was a departure point for wave (a). Therefore, we’re likely going to have bullish wave [ii]. If the price doesn’t break 6/8 MM Level, bears will probably try to return into the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11803

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & USD GDP Q3 2017: A sideways range in place
12/22/2016

Today at 13:30 GMT will be released the third quarter’s GDP reading in the United States, which is expected to see an increase to 3.3% from 3.2% for Q3. The data comes in with a better-than-expected reading on last quarter, as business investments increased, which provided a clear vision of how’s performing the national economy and it’s expected that, after recent data, the number comes in positive for Q3.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is showing that the pair is confined into a sideways structure. Currently, it’s hovering around 50 SMA and it can re-test the resistance zone of 1.0476, where a breakout should open the doors to test the 1.0533 level. However, with the pair plummeting below 1.0397, it can touch the level of 1.0351.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11804

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 22
12/22/2016

“It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas”, everywhere we go. That’s what can be said about financial markets these days. Take a look at the Volatility index, it slumped to 10.90 overnight. Most currencies little changed from yesterday.

EUR/USD moved higher to 1.0435. Last night the private sector deal to bailout Italy’s Monte dei Paschi de Siena bank failed to materialize. The good thing is that Italy’s Parliament approved a financial bank support package to rescue country’s banking system (canny move from the side of government; everybody becomes generous in the countdown to catholic Christmas eve). Plenty of the US data is coming up later today – quarterly GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims. It definitely doesn’t look like Christmas, more like everyday work.

USD/JPY is trading along the 117.57 level. We don’t expect ground-shaking events/news flows from Japan today. So, we see more corrective movements going forward unless US data manages to fuel a snail’s pace of quotes.

AUD/USD retreated to 0.7230 from yesterday’s high at 0.7280. Kiwi edged up to 0.6895 having topped to 0.6920 prior the New Zealand’s data flow. Earlier today we got the 3rd quarter GDP from New Zealand. The reading was strong, but a revision to Q2 rained on the parade.

USD/CAD remains its bullish momentum. The pair rose above 1.3430 level, and it seems like it is not going to stop there. Today’s focus will be on Canadian CPI, core retail sales and retail sales. Consensus forecasts don’t hold forth a hope for the CAD recovery.

Brent oil futures slumped to $54.30 overnight as we got a report showing an increase in the US crude inventories. Libya is going to boost oil production over the upcoming months. So, oil prices will unlikely offer support to the weakening Canadian dollar.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11805

 

[riki143]

Gold got into the clutches of bears
12/22/2016

On the daily chart of gold, quotes came closer to the support at $1,116 (78.6% Fibonacci level of the last upward wave). A successful test of this level followed by the breach of $1,080 mark (88.6%) can lead to the restoration of the long-term downtrend. It seems that while the precious metal is below $1,171, "bears" will be remaining control over the market.

On the hourly chart of gold, after the reversal Bat pattern had been formed, quotes returned to the support at $1,127. Most likely, the precious metal will continue to consolidate in the range of $1,120-1,145.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11806

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: franc fulfilled the target
12/22/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, "bulls" managed to fulfill the 1.0270 target on longs formed from the 1.0120 level. At the present moment, the pair is going through the period of consolidation. Update of the December peak can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 1.0370 and 1.0490. The nearest support is located near 1.02-1.0230 levels.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the triangle was formed. A successful test of its upper boundary, followed by the test of 1.0325 resistance will allow the "bulls" to restore the upward trend. In contrast, a breakout of the support at 1,023 will be a signal for the development of the correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11807

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Euro corrected in a Cloud direction[/B}
12/22/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0380, 1.0410; resistance – 1.0450, 1.0470.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0470; SL — 1.0490; TP1 — 1.0380; TP2 – 1.0340.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal lines of the Ichimoku Indicator; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span A.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11808

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation on Tenkan-sen
12/22/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2350; resistance – 1.2390, 1.2410.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2390; SL — 1.2410; TP1 — 1.2320; TP2 — 1.2300.

Reason: bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are inside of the channel of Tenkan-Kijun.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11809

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Flag" pushing the market lower
12/22/2016

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0461. Considering the main downtrend, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0340 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so there’s a flat, which is taking place under the 55 Moving Average. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0365 – 1.0351 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average once again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11810

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to deliver a new low
12/22/2016

The price faced a support at 1.2309, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. At the same time, we’ve got a bearish “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.2309 - 1.2270. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement.

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between the 34 Moving Average and the closest support at 1.2309. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2270. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an option to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2358 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11811

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, December 22th
12/22/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 42 415 ? + 20 124 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0480; 1.0521; 1.0539; 1.0577/93
Closest support levels 1.0424; 1.0403; 1.0375; 1.0358/40
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0424, with target points at 1.0403 and 1.0375
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0480 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0521 and 1.0539

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 225 ? + 112 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2426; 1.2460; 1.2483; 1.2511
Closest support levels 1.2334(17?); 1.2295; 1.2268; 1.2237
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2334, with target points at 1.2295 and 1.2268
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2426 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2460 and 1.2483

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 34 ? + 144 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3444; 1.3488; 1.3550; 1.3624
Closest support levels 1.3383; 1.3356; 1.3328; 1.3282
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3383, with the target points at 1.3356 and 1.3328
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3444 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3488 and 1.3550

More:
[URL =https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11814]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11814[/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish "Three Methods"
12/22/2016

We’ve got an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local bearish correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, which has a confirmation. In this case, bulls are likely going to push the market higher.

The price has reached the 89 Moving Average, but we’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” here. So, if we have any bearish pattern in the coming hours, there’ll be a chance to see a local correction. However, bulls will probably try to continue an upward correction later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11815

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to run out of flat
12/22/2016

There’s an “Engulfing” at the local low. If this pattern confirms, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high.

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Harami” at the last low, which both have been confirmed. Also, the middle of the last white candle is acting as a support. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages. If we see a pullback from these lines, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11816

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to move on
12/22/2016

The price is developing wave [ii], which was started right after the pullback from 1/8 MM Level. However, if 2/8 MM Level acts as a resistance, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave [iii]. In this case we should keep an eye on -1/8 MM Level as a possible bearish target.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of has been ended on 5/8 MM Level. So, the pair is moving up in wave (a) of [ii]. If we have a pullback from 6/8 MM Level in the coming hours, then bears will probably try to deliver wave (b).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11817

 

[riki143]

EUR/CHF reversed from support zone
12/22/2016

EUR/CHF reversed from support zone
Next buy target – 1.0750
EUR/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support levels 1.0700 (previous sell target) and 1.0680 (which stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 1 in November, as can be seen from the daily EUR/CHF chart below). This support zone was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from August.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone EUR/CHF can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0750.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11818

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY reversed from support area
12/22/2016

EUR/JPY reversed from support area
Next buy target - 86.00
EUR/JPY continues to rise after the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support area lying between the pivotal support level 122.00, 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from the end of November and the upper trendline of the recently broken daily up channel from July (acting as support after it was broken).

The upward reversal form the aforementioned support zone completed the previous minor correction (iv). EUR/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 124.20 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (iii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11819

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi fulfilled its target
12/23/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes dropped below 0.7 level. The target formed at the 0.7187 on the short positions was fulfilled. The fact that the quotes went beyond the long-term rising channel signals us that the bears took the initiative in their hands. New Zealand Dollar can slide down towards 0.6785 and 0.659 levels.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, we may notice that the expanding wedge pattern and AB = CD pattern worked out. The nearest resistance levels are located near the 0.694 and 0.698 levels. The rebound from these levels will allow us to form shorts.

Recommendation: SELL 0,698 SL 0,7035 TP1 0,6785 TP2 0,659.

More:
URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11820]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11820[/URL]

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bears accelerate their pace
12/23/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, there is an acceleration of the downtrend. If the "bears" manage to hold below the 0.7214 level (88.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward wave), their counterparts may lose hope for the restoration of the "bullish" trend. The nearest resistance level is located near the 0.7280 level. An update of the December low can send the quotes to 0.714 and 0.706.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, a rise of quotes towards the resistance located at 0.727 followed by the rebound can be used for sales.

Recommendation: SELL 0,727 SL 0,7325 TP1 0,714 TP2 0,706.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11821