Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish patterns point to correction
12/16/2016

We’ve got a bearish “Shooting Star”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline towards the nearest support, which could reverse the price movement into the upward direction. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Three Methods” pattern led to a new maximum. Moreover, bulls are likely going to push the price even higher.

There’re bearish patterns such a “Doji”, a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star”, but all of them haven’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline towards the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11749

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for Dec. 19-23
12/16/2016

USD/JPY kept skyrocketing: the pair reached 118.65 on the general US dollar’s rally after the long-awaited meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Next week the market’s attention will turn from the United States to Japan. The Bank of Japan will meet on Thursday. Changes in monetary policy are unlikely, but according to the speculation, the regulator is considering upgrading its assessment of the nation’s economy because of the improving global economic conditions, weaker yen and higher stocks. At the same time, the central bank should still repeat that risks to the economic and price outlook are to the downside.

Upside targets lie around 120.00 (78.6% Fibo of 2015-2016 decline and psychologically important level). Interest rate differentials between the US and Japan are widening and boosting the pair. The daily trend is clearly bullish, though we have to point out that the pair dived into resistance area formed by the neckline of 2015 head-and-shoulders pattern. Downside corrections should find support around 115.60 and 114.70 (100-week MA).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11750

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
12/16/2016

AUD/USD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
Next sell targets – 0.7300 and 0.7260
AUD/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7500 (previous buy target which also recently reversed the (a)-wave of the earlier ABC correction 2), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from the start of November.

AUD/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the key support level 0.7300 (low of the previous minor impulse wave 1) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 0.7260.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11751

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD broke resistance levels 1.3270 and 1.3350
12/16/2016

USD/CAD broke resistance levels 1.3270 and 1.3350
Next buy target - 1.3500
USD/CAD continues to rise inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the support zone lying between the powerful support level 1.3100 (sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair), lower daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp impulse wave (1) from August and the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from May.

Having recently broken through the two consecutive resistance levels 1.3270 and 1.3350 - USD/CAD can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 1.3500.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11752

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, December 19th
12/18/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 87 855 ? + 104 912 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0493; 1.0543; 1.0562; 1.0586
Closest support levels 1.0421; 1.0398; 1.0368; 1.0329
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0421, with target points at 1.0398 and 1.0368
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0493 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0543 and 1.0562

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 92 ? - 10 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2533; 1.2569; 1.2587; 1.2609
Closest support levels 1.2437; 1.2417; 1.2392; 1.2364
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2533, with target points at 1.2569 and 1.2587
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2437 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2417 and 1.2392

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 295 ? + 1 660 ?
Closest resistance levels 117.99; 118.36; 118.72; 119.08
Closest support levels 116.36; 115.61; 115.29; 114.96
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 116.36, with the target points at 115.61 and 115.29
Alternative scenario Moving above 117.99 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 118.36 and 118.72

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 100 ? + 280 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3371; 1.3396; 1.3435; 1.3488
Closest support levels 1.3314(?); 1.3275; 1.3238; 1.3189
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3371, with the target points at 1.3396 and 1.3435
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3314 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3275 and 1.3238

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11753

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & German Ifo Business Climate: More downside ahead?
12/19/2016

Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the German IFO business climate and we can expect very little changes in terms of latest’s data. During November, the numbers proven that companies weren’t affected in huge terms by the victory of Donald Trump in the US elections, but analysts’ consensus are telling that such consequences should happen in the long-term and that seems to have logic, because Trump hasn’t taken his official duties and Brexit needs to be implemented and those two scenarios are expected to materialise in the next year. In terms of the German’s data, an increase to 110.7 from 110.4 could be seen today.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still calling for more downside towards the parity zone in a long-term scenario, which is getting closer each day. However, a strong demand zone is located at the 1.0413 level, where buyers will try to push higher the pair to re-test the 200 SMA. Currently, EUR/USD is following a bearish channel and if the pair plunges below the 1.0413 zone, then it can test the 1.0178 level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11754

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie fulfilled targets
12/19/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, a breakout of the lower boundary of the short-term upwards trading channel near the 0.745 level was the signal of the end of the correction and restoration of the "bearish" trend. The 0.706 mark can be its target. There is a set target in the AB = CD pattern. Since the market is under the control of sellers, traders should sell on the rise of quotes.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, 5-0 and expanding wedge patterns worked out. The correction towards the 38.2% level of the CD wave allowed to open short positions and take profits at the 0.73 level. At the present moment, the nearest resistance is located around 0,735.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11755

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound has found an equilibrium point
12/19/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, "bears" managed to drag quotes below the lower border of the upward trading channel and below the 1.2512 level. Earlier this level served as support. Now it is a key resistance line. A new support can be found at 1.24 (23.6% Fibonacci level of the last downward wave).

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, a successful test of the 1.2305 level can activate the "Shark" pattern. Its target 88.6% is located near the mark of 1,215. A breakout of the support can lead to the rise of prices towards the upper boundary of the upward trading channel (1.26).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11756

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to deliver new low
12/19/2016

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0461, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.0340 – 1.0300. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see another upward movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0506 – 1.0552.

The price is consolidating, so there’s an opportunity to have a “Flag” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which is strengthened by the downtrend. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0365 – 1.0340.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11758

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: local bullish "Flag"
12/19/2016

The pair found a resistance at 1.2498, so the price is consolidating. Considering the previously formed “Upward Wedge”, the market is likely going to rise towards a support at 1.2384 – 1.2358. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to have an achievement of the next resistance at 1.2476 – 1.2498.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is trading under the 34 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the 55 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line be on the table, bears will try to reach the nearest support between the levels 1.2418 – 1.2384.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11759

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: trading in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel
12/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0440; resistance – 1.0515.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0515; SL — 1.0535; TP1 — 1.0440; TP2 – 1.0400.

Reason: bearish narrow Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices are in the channel of Tenkan-Kijun; strong resistance of Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11761

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: correction to Senkou Span B
12/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2430; resistance – 1.2535.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2535; SL — 1.2555; TP1 — 1.2430; TP2 — 1.2400.

Reason: an Ichimoku Cloud changed its mood to bearish; falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling Tenkan-sen; a strong resistance of Senkou Span B; the prices are in the correction to Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11762

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11762

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to start
12/19/2016

The price has been declining since a pullback from 5/8 MM Level happens. Therefore, wave [iii] of 3 is likely going to be continued. In this case we should keep an eye on -1/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target.

There’s a double zigzag in wave (ii), so the market is likely going to form wave (iii) in the short term. Previously, a bearish impulse in wave (i) was formed. However, if bears be stopped on 4/8 MM Level and we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11765

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Engulfing"
12/19/2016

There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed, so bulls are likely to continue pushing the market higher during the current correction. The main intraday target is the 21 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Thrusting Line” pattern, so there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

The price is consolidating under the low of 29.11.2015, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern here. So, the pair is likely going to decline until any bullish pattern arrives.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11767

 

[riki143]

NZD/JPY reversed from resistance area
12/19/2016

NZD/JPY reversed from resistance area
Next sell targets –81.00 and 80.00
NZD/JPY continues to fall – after the pair earlier reversed down from the resistance area lying between the major resistance level 83.30 (which stopped the previous waves 4 and (4) and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper weekly Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from April of 2015.

The downward reversal from this resistance area created the strong weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star. NZD/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell targets at the support levels 81.00 and 80.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11768

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD reversed from support zone
12/19/2016

EUR/AUD reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.4470
EUR/AUD continues to rise after the recent sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the powerful support level 1.4130 (which reversed the price multiple times from October, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (C) from May.

EUR/AUD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4470 (top of the previous waves (a) and (ii)) - which stands close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from September.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11769

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Inverted Hammer" pushing price higher
12/19/2016

The upward “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed enough. At the same time, we’ve got a “Harami” on the nearest Moving Average line. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “High Wave” on the last high. If these patterns finally confirm, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

The pair is declining, but we’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward price movement. So, the nearest “Window” could be tested once again.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11770

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY ahead of BoJ meeting (December): A corrective move could start soon?
12/20/2016

Today will be released the BoJ’s interest rate decision and no major surprises are expected from the central bank, as they keep untouched the monetary policy during November’s meeting. Currently, investors will be looking into what will be said during the press conference by officials, as the BoJ had been postponing their inflation target’s deadline and Governor’s Kuroda could bring some hints about which would be tools and how long it will take to battle the deflation in Japan.

Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at daily chart remains strongly bullish, but we got a strong sellers’ reaction around 118.19. Ahead of the meeting, the pair could be preparing the ground to receive the news with a bearish correction, favoring the bullish momentum in the Japanese currency. If that happens, we can expect a decline to test the support area of 115.54. If the BoJ’s rhetoric is dovish, then the pair will look to reach the 120.00 handle.

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11771/USDJPYDaily(27).png/IMG]

More:
[URL=https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11771]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11771[/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP: rivals are preparing for Christmas
12/20/2016

On the EUR/GBP daily chart, there is a consolidation in a range of 0.8345-0.8445. A breakout of its lower boundary can lead to the restoration of the downtrend towards the 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern (0.763). In contrast, a successful test of the resistance will create prerequisites for the development of the correction towards 0.873.

On the EUR/GBP hourly chart, a pullback of prices towards 0.8445 allowed us to open short positions. If the "bears" manage to test the nearest diagonal support and activate the "Shark" pattern, the pair may fall towards the support at 0.8345.

Recommendations: keep holding shorts formed from the 0,856 and 0,8445 levels.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11772

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen fulfilled targets
12/20/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, prices reached 118.4-118.9 convergence zone (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave + 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern). This allowed traders to close long positions formed from 114.75 and 115.8 levels. The next support levels are located near the 116.1 and 114.7 marks.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel which means that they maintain their control over the market. There can be a consolidation in the range of 116.1-118.35 levels. A successful test of its upper boundary can attract buyers.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11773