Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: in correction to Kijun-sen
12/14/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0590, 1.0630; resistance – 1.0695.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0690; SL — 1.0710; TP1 — 1.0590; TP2 – 1.0560.

Reason: bearish narrow Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the rising Tenkan-sen; strong resistance of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11703

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound corrected to Kijun
12/14/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2640/50, 1.2625; resistance – 1.2730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2650; SL — 1.2630; TP1 — 1.2730; TP2 — 1.2750.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; rising Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11704

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bearish trend is coming
12/14/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7470; resistance – 0.7500, 0.7525.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7500; SL — 0.7520; TP1 — 0.7440; TP2 — 0.7340.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but there is a falling Senkou Span B; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the resistance of Senkou Span B.

More:
[URKL=[URL]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11705]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11705[/URL][/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Thorn" stopped bulls
12/14/2016

There’s a local consolidation inside the resistance area. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance on the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.0655 – 1.0594.

The price is consolidating between a resistance at 1.0666 and a support at 1.0603. So, the pair is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.0666 – 1.0697.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11706

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 14
12/14/2016

EUR/USD edged up above 1.0635 in the course of the Asian session having propped by the widening spread between US and German 2-year yields. All eyes on the FOMC meeting. The outcome will be announced at 9:00 pm GMT+2. Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference will be half an hour later.

USD/JPY spiked to 115.30 on the latest session as the Bank of Japan was very active today in selling JGBs. Later today we will receive a great many of the US statistical releases on the retail sales, PPI, capacity utilization rate and monthly gauge of the industrial production. They should send some wobbles to the market ahead of the meeting.

BOJ sells JGBs to push down the long-bond yields

GBP/USD little changed in the past hours of the Asian session. Having made a big swing, prices returned to the Ichimoku cloud on the 4H timeframe. At the present moment prices a moving along 1.2650. Later today we will receive significant releases from the UK that could influence the BOE decision tomorrow. They may afford a short-term support to the pound as the readings are expected to be strong. In the New York session, however, USD should pare its losses after the announcement of the Fed’s rate statement. Also, we remind you of the BOE Governor Carney’s speech scheduled for 2:15 pm. Although it shouldn’t bring lots of movements to the chart, it is better to go through its highlights just to be sure that nothing important is missed.

AUD/USD slumped to 0.7480 on the disappointing headlines of the Australian consumer sentiment release. NZD/USD was little higher on the session.

Gold price ticked up to $1160 on the Asian session. The yellow metal prices should go lower after Fed announces its rate as they are denominated in USD. So, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for other nations to purchase, demand for gold decreases and send gold prices lower.

Oil ran fell to $55 following a reported rise in US crude inventories and an estimate that OPEC may have produced more crude in November than previously thought.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11707

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test "V-Top"
12/14/2016

We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards a support near the uptrend. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2703 – 1.2770.

There’s a confirmed “Double Top”, which led to an achievement of the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline, so we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2703 – 1.2726.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11708

 

[riki143]

Banks' projections ahead of the FOMC meeting
12/14/2016

The FOMC meeting is one of the highly-anticipated events of the year. The Fed is widely expected to raise its interest rate by 25bp.The hike is already priced in, so many banks don't expect significant moves from the US dollar. They suggest focusing on the central bank’s signals regarding the future of the Fed's monetary policy in the upcoming months.

Banks Opinion
Goldman Sachs

The bank expects the FOMC to raise its benchmark by 25bp followed by the strengthening of USD. Chair Yellen will probably say that the Fed’s monetary stance is not on a pre-set, that it will be adjusted to the upcoming US economic data.

Danske

The Fed’s hike was already priced in. The main question is how many hikes to expect next year from the Fed. Danske’s forecast is two hikes in 2017 and 3 hikes in 2018.

BofA Merrill

The rate hike is largely expected, so the focus will be on the statement and the press conference. The banks’ strategists think that the FOMC statement and summary of economic projections will be hawkish. The US dollar is poised to trading higher. The short-term gains of the greenback could be tempered by Yellen’s tone. She will likely adopt a cautiously optimistic tone, reiterating the gradual pace of hikes. USD is at risk of appreciation. The inflation rate will probably move higher. BoFA Merill notices that the recent increase in inflation rate and USD strengthening can be attributed to the US factors and not foreign central bank easing measures. The Fed may see this as a positive sign.

SEB

SEB suggests traveling to the past to see how the US dollar reacted to the Fed’s rate hike in December 2015. USD weakened before the rate announcement, continued to weaken in the first hour after the hike announcement. Then, it strengthened against almost all major currencies (except CAD and JPY) and extended its gains the day after the FOMC meeting. The futures implied probability for a hike was 76% in 2015, now it is greater – 93%. So, the rate increase this year is more discounted by markets in comparison to 2015.

Barclays

FOMC meeting will unlikely offer a great boost to USD; it may instead encourage profit-taking on long USD positions especially in the pairs where USD is the most expensive. Strategists expect Chair Yellen to balance the FOMC decision to raise rates with a rather dovish tone at the press conference. She might be willing to test the potential benefits of running an economy working at full blast. Positioning and seasonal factors will likely weaken the USD into year-end.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11709

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, December 14th
12/14/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 41 847 ? + 83 741 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0676; 1.0713; 1.0746; 1.0770
Closest support levels 1.0603; 1.0574; 1.0537; 1.0490
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0603, with target points at 1.0574 and 1.0537
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0676 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0713 and 1.0746

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 382 ? + 404 ?
Closest resistance levels 115.15; 115.37; 115.55; 115.96
Closest support levels 114.27; 113.51; 113.02; 112.73
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 114.27, with the target points at 113.51 and 113.02
Alternative scenario Moving above 115.15 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 115.37 and 115.55

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 137 ? + 173 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3127; 1.3163; 1.3184; 1.3210
Closest support levels 1.3065; 1.3038; 1.3019; 1.2968
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long(?) USD/CAD above 1.3127, with the target points at 1.3163 and 1.3184
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3065 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3038 and 1.3019

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11710

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: zigzag in wave [ii]
12/14/2016

We’ve got a flat in wave 2, which led to form a bearish impulse in wave . Considering a possible ending of wave [ii], bears are likely going to deliver wave [iii] of 3 in the short term. If -2/8 MM Level be broken, we’ll have a new levels indication.

There’s a zigzag in wave [ii]. Previously, a bearish impulse in wave was formed. In this case, wave (i) is likely going to be continued during the day.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11711

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish "Doji"
12/14/2016

There’s a bearish “Harami” on the 34 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local low. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to push the pair even higher.

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been formed on the nearest “Window”. Also, there’s a “Doji” at the last low. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the closest resistance once again. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s a chance to have another decline soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11714

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new local low
12/14/2016

We’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, the 13 Moving Average is acting as a support. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern remains unconfirmed. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have the second test of the closest resistance.

There’s a “Last Engulfing” pattern, which has a strong confirmation. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support level during the day.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11715

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF reached buy target 1.0200
12/14/2016

USD/CHF reached buy target 1.0200
Next sell target – 1.0020
USD/CHF continues to fall strongly – after the price earlier reversed down from the major resistance level 1.0200 (which stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3 and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.0200 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

Given the bearish divergence on the daily RSI indicator and the strength of the resistance level 1.0200 - USD/CHF can be expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0020 (low of the previous minor correction 4 from the start of December).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11716

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD reversed from support zone
12/14/2016

EUR/USD reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.0700
EUR/USD continues to rise after the pair earlier reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 1.0530 (which also previously reversed the pair sharply at the end of November) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

Given the clear bullish divergence that can be seen on the daily Stochastic indicator – EUR/USD can be expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0700.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11717

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY after Fed's rate hike by 25 bps: Heading towards 119.00?
12/15/2016

During Wednesday’s session, the Federal Reserve announced the highly expected rate hike by 25 basis points and the central bank gave hints that three more hikes in 2017, which helped to strengthen the US dollar across the board and also, US stocks managed to do a pullback. Fed’s words were hawkish-than-expected, amid the markets had been pricing an increase in the benchmark interest rates. Yellen’s rhetoric was about dot plot and future steps of the central bank, in a new environment with the US-elected president, Donald Trump.

Our technical outlook for USD/JPY at the daily chart is strongly bullish and now it’s targeting the 118.19 resistance zone. The Fed was beyond that move and absolutely, the pair found the needed catalyst to boost the bullish rally. It’s highly likely that USD/JPY finds a strong sell zone around the 120.00 neighbourhood and we can expect a corrective move towards the 115.00 on a mid-term basis.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11718

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound have lost the positions
12/15/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2540, 1.2500; resistance – 1.2570.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2570; SL — 1.2590; TP1 — 1.2500; TP2 — 1.2440.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11719

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie going down to negative zone
12/15/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7380, 0.7360; resistance – 0.7445.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7445; SL — 0.7465; TP1 — 0.7360; TP2 — 0.7340.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling lines; the prices are in a negative zone.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11720

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls meet market's expectations
12/15/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, prices rebounded from the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and activated the pending order (BUY 1,308). This allowed us to open a long position and take some profits (TP1 1,3275). If the "bulls" manage to consolidate above the important 1.3306 level, the rally may continue.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the targets of the Shark pattern were fulfilled. There is a transformation of this pattern into the 5-0 pattern. If bulls fail to test resistances at 1.3335 and 1.3395, it will be a signal for the attack of bears. If bulls manage to break out the 1.3531 level, there can be a restoration of the uptrend.

Recommendations: we should change TP2 on the long positions opened at 1,308 to 1,3395, BUY 1,3531 SL 1,3476 TP1 1,37 TP2 1,3835.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11721

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: Kiwi faced with wedge
12/15/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, a short position opened at 0.7187 is still relevant. "Bears" launched a counterattack and revived hope for the implementation of the "Head and shoulders" pattern. The further movement of Kiwi will depend on the test of the diagonal support - the lower boundary of the upward trading channel.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there is a final stage of formation of 5-0 and an expanding wedge patterns. A successful test of the lower border of the upward trading channel can lead to the restoration of the downtrend.

Recommendation: hold shorts formed from the 0,7187 level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11722

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 15
12/15/2016

The US dollar roared higher after the Fed raised rate for the first time in year. It jumped on the headline and then continued its rally as Yellen endorsed the dot path (three hikes in the upcoming year). Two-year US bonds yields rose more than 10 basis points to 1.2670 – the highest level since 2009.

Ready, steady, buy!!!

EUR/USD dropped to 1.04650 in the early hours of Asian session, then, it found some support around 1.0510. The euro should linger at this point according to analytical prognoses. The US dollar/euro parity is within hailing distance.

USD/JPY popped up to 117.85 on the session, then, retreated to 117.45. The weakening of the yen, however, cushioned Japanese stocks.

Earlier this morning we got upbeat November employment data from Australia that helped Aussie to lift up its head after the recent downfall and rise to 0.7425 from 0.7380. Kiwi slumped to 0.7075 after the US dollar ravaging surge. Then, NZD/USD moved higher to 0.7100 following the Aussie’s example.

USD/CAD moved higher to 1.3322 due to the broader USD strength and falling oil prices. Later today keep in focus the bunch of the US economic data reflecting the situation in manufacturing sector, labor market and identifying the monthly change in the consumer prices. Also, we should get a manufacturing sales report from Canada.

Today’s focus will be on the BOE’s policy and rate announcement. Many strategists expect the BoE to stay on hold and maintain its current monetary stance. Yesterday we got rather strong labor market releases that may influence the BOE’s decision today. GBP/USD slumped to 1.2510 on the Fed’s rate announcement. Earlier this morning it edged up to 1.2530.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11723

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Rectangle" helped bears
12/15/2016

There’s a “Triple Top”, so the market has plunged. Finally, bears faced a support at 1.0461, so we’ve got a local “Thorn”. In this case, the price is likely going to test a resistance at 1.0552 – 1.0594. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to deliver a new low.

Bears broke all Moving Averages on the one-hour chart. However, we’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance between the levels 1.0552 – 1.0590 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have another decline very soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11724