Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY rising inside sharp (C)-wave
12/12/2016

USD/JPY rising inside sharp (C)-wave
Next buy target - 118.00
USD/JPY continues to rise after the pair recently broke through the resistance zone surrounding the strong resistance level 114.00 (which earlier reversed the price multiple times in March and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active intermediate (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ? from June.

USD/JPY is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 118.00 (target price for the completion of the active ABC correction ?).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11680

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK CPI for November: A merry christmas for the Pound?
12/13/2016

Today at 09:30 GMT will be released the UK CPI (Inflation Rate) for November, following a gain of 0.9% in October, which was a slightly-than-expected data from the 1% posted in September. Market’s analysts are expecting an increase to 1.1%, which should help to boost the Sterling across the board and it’s likely to happen, despite the weakness seen on the GBP after Brexit’s referendum and recent talks about a possible “hard Brexit”.

Our technical analysis for GBP/USD at H4 chart is showing a bullish’s strengthening in the short-term, as the pair had been following a trend line plotted from October 25th lows, which also acts as a strong dynamic support. Now, the pair is facing a solid resistance around 1.2694, where a breakout higher should open the doors to test the 1.2765 level, followed by the 1.2800 handle. In the bearish scenario, if GBP/USD does a pullback at the current stage, then it can plunge towards 1.2492, where is located the bullish trend line mentioned above.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11681

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" led to upward correction
12/13/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0552, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to an achievement of the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.0708 – 1.0745 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0655 – 1.0594.

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0624. So, the pair is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0666 – 1.0697 later on.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11682

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test nearest resistance
12/13/2016

The pair found a support at 1.2556, which was strengthened by the uptrend. So, we’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.2770 – 1.2795. If we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2703 – 1.2672.

We’ve got a “V-Top” here, so the price is consolidating. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2663 – 1.2647. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.2703 – 1.2743.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11683

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen made a break
12/13/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" failed to go beyond the upward trading channel. To restore the uptrend buyers need to update the December peak near the 116 level. If they succeed, target 161.8% in the "Crab" inverted pattern will be fulfilled.

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11684/Screenshot_2016_12_13_08_20_29.png[IMG]

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the "bulls" failed to go above 115.80. A successful test of this resistance will open the way to the north.

[IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11684/Screenshot_2016_12_13_08_20_51.png

Recommendations: hold longs formed from 114,75,

BUY 115,8 SL 115,25 TP1 117 TP2 118,4.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11684

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie came closer to the Rubicon
12/13/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the bulls and bears continue to fight for the 0.749 level. If the "bulls" manage to hold prices above this level and test the resistance line at 0.76, the rally will continue in the direction of the lower border of the last upward trading channel. Alternatively, if "bears" win the fight for the 0.7490 level and test the support at 0.742, there can be a restoration of the downtrend.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, a breakout of the resistance at 0.749 will push prices higher towards the 0.7545 and 0.757 levels, where the sellers should display an active attitude.

Recommendations:

SELL 0,7545 SL 0,76 TP 0,742,

SELL 0,757 SL 0,7625 TP 0,742.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11685

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 13
12/13/2016

EUR/USD retraced from the yesterday’s high of 1.0650 to 1.0630 and hung up there waiting for the Fed’s rate review. Today’s focus will be on German ZEW economic sentiment which is going to be upbeat according to the consensus forecast. The release will be followed by the US import prices.

We will know tomorrow whose side Yellen is on

GBP/USD continues to trade in a choppy manner. Yesterday the pair made a big swing to 1.2695, then fell to 1.2670. Later today we will get the data on the UK inflation. It may dislodge the pound from its lofty perch as CPI is expected to rise in November.

USD/JPY ticked up in the course of the Asian session. Higher yields and anticipation of the rate hike are lifting the dollar. Now the pair is meandering in the narrow range of 115.25 – 114.70. There is no news from Japan; the pair is poised to trade sideways for a while, as the strong upward momentum is waning out.

AUD/USD slid down to 0.7490 as we got a bit disappointing data reports from Australia. Business conditions decreased from +6.6 points to +5.3, while business confidence popped from +4.3 points to +5.0 (the gauge indicate a rise, but it’s still below the average). Chines Industrial production data was upbeat. Investment went in line with expectation. Aussie reacted with a green blip and then continued to fall.

NZD/USD spiked to 0.7205 yesterday, but this sign of sudden strength fizzled out eventually.

Brent crude oil futures fell down to $55.60 after surging on Monday to their 1.5-year high on the back of a weekend output cut agreement signed by OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11686

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears have won
12/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0590; resistance – 1.0695.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0690; SL — 1.0710; TP1 — 1.0590; TP2 – 1.0560.

Reason: bearish narrow Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; strong resistance of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11687

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: on the Cloud’s support
12/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2670, 1.2625; resistance – 1.2730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2630; SL — 1.2610; TP1 — 1.2730; TP2 — 1.2750.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the Cloud’s upper border.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11688

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: trading in the Cloud will continue
12/13/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7470; resistance – 0.7525.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7525; SL — 0.7445; TP1 — 0.7470; TP2 — 0.7440.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span B; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the resistance of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11689

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, December 13th
12/13/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 15 307 ? + 119 816 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0686; 1.0725; 1.0757; 1.0780
Closest support levels 1.0627; 1.0605; 1.0575; 1.0556
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0627, with target points at 1.0605 and 1.0575
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0686 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0725 and 1.0757

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 12 ? + 61 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2731; 1.2757; 1.2791; 1.2814
Closest support levels 1.2666; 1.2646; 1.2615; 1.2587
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2666, with target points at 1.2646 and 1.2615
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2731 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2757 and 1.2791

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 264 ? + 372 ?
Closest resistance levels 115.50; 115.93; 116.33; 116.58
Closest support levels 114.05; 113.28; 112.79; 112.20
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 115.50, with the target points at 115.93 and 116.33
Alternative scenario Moving below 114.05 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 113.28 and 112.79

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11690

 

[riki143]

Some forecasts ahead of the BOE meeting
12/13/2016

On Thursday at 7 am 12:00 GMT+2 the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. Many strategists believe that the BoE will maintain its current monetary stance unchanged in line with consensus forecasts and market pricing. The focus will be on the minutes as there won’t be a press conference and updated inflation report. At the November meeting, the BOE shifted from an easing bias to a neutral bias saying that the bank is ready to respond in either direction.

Today we got upbeat inflation data from the UK. The year-to-year CPI rate rose to 1.4% from 0.9%. The core rate ticked up to 1.4% in November. Average weekly earnings are expected to be steady. There shouldn’t be any changes in the unemployment rate as well (it is currently at its cyclical low level of 4.8%). The number of jobless claims is expected to decrease (positive impact on the currency). Signs of strong wage and price growth, strong labor data may push the board to shift its monetary outlook to the hawkish side. Despite strong economic data, the BOE will unlikely recourse to tightening at this meeting because of the elevated political uncertainty over the “Brexit” process. Go through the highlights of the BOE Governor Mark Carney speech tomorrow. The main topic of his speech has nothing to do with the BOE's monetary policy, but we would recommend to keep it in focus. Who knows, maybe Carney gives us some clues on Thursday's interest rate decision.

On Thursday, the pound may experience some additional pressure. The leaders of EU countries minus Theresa May for the first time will discuss the process of negotiation with the UK. The communique of the meeting should formalize how the EU members conduct themselves in the next 2 years. So, this document may send some wobbles to the technical charts with GBP. If the EU countries will adopt a tough stance toward the UK, the pound may be seriously hit.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11692

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Tweezers"
12/13/2016

There’s a resistance by the nearest “Window”, so we’ve got a bearish “Harami”. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to deliver a local downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a bullish “Engulfing” pattern, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction in the short term.

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Doji”, but a confirmation of these patterns is a quite weak. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support area. If we see a pullback from it, bulls will probably try to break the last high.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11693

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Engulfing" points to local decline
12/13/2016

There’s a bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed enough. However, the 13 Moving Average acted as a support. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards. there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern doesn’t have a confirmation. Therefore, a bearish correction is going to start soon.

We’ve got a “Harami” on the 34 Moving Average. Considering a confirmation of this pattern and a bearish “Engulfing”, the market is likely going to test the closest support line. If a pullback happens afterwards, bulls will have a chance to deliver another upward price movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11694

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end
12/13/2016

We’ve got a bearish impulse in wave . Previously, wave 2 formed like a flat. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have wave [ii] in the short term. At the same time, if the price finds a lodgement under -1/8 MM Level afterwards, bears are likely going to deliver wave [iii] of 3.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a bullish impulse in wave (a). Therefore, when wave (b) ends, the market is likely going to rise in wave (c) of [ii]. The main intraday target is 3/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11697

 

[riki143]

GBP/JPY broke resistance level 146.10
12/13/2016

GBP/JPY broke resistance level 146.10
Next buy target – 150.00
GBP/JPY today broke above resistance level 146.10 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) at the start of this month). The price earlier broke through the resistance level 145.00 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of these two resistance levels continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which started recently from the pivotal support level 142.50 (top of the previous A-wave from July).

GBP/JPY is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 150.00 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active long-term ABC correction ? from July).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11698

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
12/13/2016

EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next sell target - 1.4600
EUR/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the wave 3 from October (which is itself a part of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from July). The active impulse wave 3 earlier broke though the powerful support zone lying between the support levels 1.5000 and 1.5100 (which have been steadily reversing the price from July). The breakout of this support zone led to the recent breakout of the next support level 1.4860.

EUR/NZD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii) and in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 1.4600. Sell stop-loss can be placed above 1.4860.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11699

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & December's Fed Meeting: A rate hike is coming finally...
12/14/2016

Today is the D-Day for the Federal Reserve, as the central bank will meet to take an interest rate decision and markets had been pricing a rate hike by approximately 25 basis points, according to latest analysts’ surveys. Also, Fed Watch’s tool has a near 100% of chances for a rise un the interest rates, which should also help to fuel the US dollar across the board, despite the higher expectations about that hike. In the worst-case scenario, the Fed can keep on hold the rates.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a very clear bearish structure ahead of the meeting, but with a strong demand zone placed around 1.0538. If the pair manages to rebound above that area, which is unlikely to happen with a rate hike, we could expect a testing of the 200 SMA around 1.0769. In the most-expected scenario, EUR/USD can attempt a breakout below 1.0538, in order to reach the support level of 1.0404.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11700

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP: bears regained their control over the market
12/14/2016

On the EUR/GBP daily chart, correction towards 0.856 can be used for opening short positions. A breakout of the support located near the December low (0.829) can lead to the continuation of the downward movement in the direction of the target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern (0.76). The levels of 0.8175 and 0.82 are intermediate targets.

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11701/Screenshot_2016_12_14_08_23_46.png[/URL]

On the EUR/GBP hourly chart, "bears" continue to control the market's situation. At present, the 5-0 pattern is almost formed. Rollbacks towards 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels can be used for opening short positions.

[IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11701/Screenshot_2016_12_14_08_24_00.png

Recommendation: hold shorts formed from 0,856, SELL 0,8445 SL 0,85 TP 0,8175.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11701

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: will euro catch the Crab?
12/14/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, bulls attacked once again to develop correction. If this attack, as the previous one, fails, the successful test of support at 1,051 will signal about the continuation of the downward movement towards the target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern (0.985). The 1.039 and 1.023 levels can serve as short-term supports.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is a transformation of the "Shark" pattern into the 5-0 pattern. Correction towards 50% or 61.8% of CD wave, can be used for opening short positions.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,074 SL 1,0799 TP 1,05,

SELL 1,07 SL 1,0755 TP1 1,05 TP2 1,039,

SELL 1,051 SL 1,0565 TP1 1,039 TP2 1,023 TP3 0,985.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11702