Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
11/29/2016

The price faced a resistance on the 34 Moving Average, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0517 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.0617 - 1.0659.

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place along the Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got a “Flag” pattern. If it confirms, the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.0550 – 1.0537. At the same time, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11498

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" inside the consolidation
11/29/2016

We’ve got a flat, which is taking place near the uptrend. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2379 – 1.2352 in the short term. If we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance at 1.2476 – 1.2511.

There’s a “Pennant” pattern on the one-hour chart. In this case, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2379 – 1.2359 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.2439 – 1.2476 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11499

 

[riki143]

In the countdown to the OPEC meeting
11/29/2016

The OPEC members will meet in Vienna on Wednesday to decide on the details of the output cut deal that was agreed in Algiers two months ago.
The cartel is trying to reach an agreement to curb its supply for the first time since the financial crisis and put an end to a two-year downturn in crude oil prices. But reaching this agreement has proved problematic with Iran and Iraq still back-pedaling.
Iran, which until last year was stifled with western sanctions, thinks that it deserves to be exempt from any production deal as much as Nigeria and Libya. According to Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, reviving the country’s oil output was "the national will and demand of the Iranian people." Iranian leaders argue that only the countries which ramped up production should bear the burden of the deal (hinting at Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies). For obvious reasons, Saudi Arabia is not ready for such sacrifices.
Brent crude oil futures fell to $48.60 earlier this morning on the jitters that OPEC producers will fail to hammer out an output cut. With just one day left before the meeting, there are still disagreements among the cartel’s members. Yesterday OPEC experts ended their talks without agreeing on concrete details of a planned reduction in oil output by individual countries. According to an OPEC delegate, Iraq and Iran continued to express objections over how to distribute output reductions. Countries fought to the very last barrel. Iran suggested cutting its production at 3.975 million barrels a day, or about 200,000 barrels a day above its current output. Saudi Arabia countered with a proposal for Iran to cap output at 3.707 million barrels a day. Meanwhile, Russian senior official claimed that they are not ready to reduce the oil supply suggesting only a freeze of production at current levels. That adds more difficulties for the negotiators to reach a deal.
At the present moment, Brent oil futures are trading around $48.65. Without an OPEC agreement, the International Energy Agency predicts that the oil market will be oversupplied in 2017, which could cause prices to fall significantly. But Saudi Arabia’s Al-Falih is still optimistic in relation to oil prices even without an OPEC cut at this meeting mainly counting on the increase in oil demand next year.

The time used in the programme is the Vienna time (GMT+1); to get the Metatrader time you should add 1 hour (Metatrader time is GMT+2).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11501

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, November 29th
11/29/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 69 485 ? + 48 166 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0616; 1.0640; 1.0665; 1.0704
Closest support levels 1.0589; 1.0546; 1.0525; 1.0501
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0589, with target points at 1.0546 and 1.0525
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0616 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0640 and 1.0665


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 209 ? + 111 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2462; 1.2499; 1.2524; 1.2553
Closest support levels 1.2418; 1.2391; 1.2365; 1.2319
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2462, with target points at 1.2499 and 1.2524
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2418 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2391 and 1.2365


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 167 ? + 1 342 ?
Closest resistance levels 112.59; 112.93; 113.47; 113.83
Closest support levels 112.17; 111.89; 111.61; 111.38
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 112.17, with the target points at 111.89 and 111.61
Alternative scenario Moving above 112.59 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 112.93 and 113.47


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 261 ? + 161 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3435; 1.3479; 1.3519; 1.3576
Closest support levels 1.3412; 1.3396/80; 1.3355; 1.3321
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3435, with the target points at 1.3479 and 1.3519
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3412 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3396/80 and 1.3355

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11504

 

[riki143]

USD/TRY short-term and near-term outlook
11/29/2016

After the US general election, the Turkish lira slumped more than any other emerging market currencies as Donald Trump’s win stoked inflation expectations pushing US yields higher and diminishing the appeal of riskier assets. On November 24, the Central Bank of Turkey raised its benchmark to 8% in order to counteract the heightened inflation rates in the future. Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the inflation outlook (watch for the inflation update on December 5).

In the short term, pay attention to the balance of trade data that is due on Wednesday (at 9 am MT time). The consensus forecast indicates the increased divergence between the exports and imports which is not good for the currency. On Thursday, watch for the update of the Turkish manufacturing PMI (there should be a small improvement from the last month data). The main focus, however, will be on the US macroeconomic data that is expected to be rather strong. This can cause the greenback to appreciate further in relation to TRY.

In the longer term, there are some political events that can weigh on the TRY growth. If the ruling AKP manages to take a new constitution to a public referendum. This constitution may broaden President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s powers and transform the present parliamentary system into presidential one.

USD/TRY dropped to 3.4052 yesterday as the yields on 10-year US Treasuries have finally slipped down from their high. Today the US dollar partially recouped its losses. It may get an additional boost and rise towards the nearest resistances located at 3.4767 and 3.4418 if the US GDP and consumer confidence readings are strong. If this data falls out of the market’s expectation, the pair may slide down towards the nearest supports located at 3.4000, at 3.3430 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11505

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" points to local decline
11/29/2016

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” on the 34 Moving Average, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “High Wave” at the local high, so bears will probably try to reach the nearest support line in the short term.

There’s an “Engulfing” at the last high. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to test the closest support. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11506

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Evening Star"
11/29/2016

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. However, there’re a support by the 21 Moving Average and a resistance by the nearest “Window”. So, the price is likely going to go through the “Window” and test the closest resistance. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, so bulls will probably try to test the last high once again.

There’re an “Evening Star” and a “High Wave”. If these patterns confirm, the market is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average shortly. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward price movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11507

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 2 going to move on
11/29/2016

Wave 1 finished last week, so there’s wave 2, which is taking form of a zigzag. Therefore, it’s likely to see wave [c] of 2 soon. The main intraday target is 0/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200).

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a wedge in wave [a]. Meanwhile, wave is likely going to form a double zigzag, so we could have wave (y) of soon. At the same time, there’s an option to see a bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11508

 

[riki143]

How to trade with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator
11/29/2016

Today we will learn how to use the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. It was created in the late 1930s by the prominent Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda and used to be known as Ichimoku Sanjin which can be translated as “what a man in the mountain sees.” By looking at the present components of the Ichimoku indicator we may conclude that this man saw quite a lot of things – baroque lines, quilted clouds, spans. So, our task for today is to peer into these elements and learn to recognize their signals.

Kijun-sen

Kijun-Sen is a major component of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. This is a confirmation line (a support/resistance line) that can help to identify the future price movement. If quotes are located below the line (usually it is painted in blue color), they may move downwards. Conversely, if prices are above the Kijun-sen, they may continue to rise.

Tenkan-sen (usually it’s red)

It is a signal line that can be used as a minor support/resistance. If the line moves up or down, it indicates that the market is trending. If it’s flat, the market is ranging; prices are moving sidelines.

Chikou span (green line)

Sometimes it’s called as the lagging span. It is used as a support/resistance. If the line crosses the price in the down-up direction – it’s a buy signal. If the green line crosses the price from the top -down, you may consider as a sell signal.

Kumo – the Ichimoku cloud

It is the space between Senkou span A and Senkou span B. It is usually used for the identification of the current and potential support/resistance points. The cloud can gain in weight or get thin. Thinner clouds offer weak support and resistance, the quotes can easily break through such “kumos.” Also, you may use the clouds for identification of the uptrend or downtrend, potential reversals. Generally, markets are “bullish” if Senkou span A is higher than Senkou span B. the reverse position of the spans tells us that the market is “bearish”. Traders are looking for the kumo’s swings to identify the reversals of the trend.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11509

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 111.40
11/29/2016

USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 111.40
Next buy target – 114.00
USD/JPY recently reversed up strongly from the pivotal support level 111.40 (acting as support now after it was broken by the breakout impulse wave (iii). The support level 111.40 is the former strong resistance level which reversed the earlier corrective waves 4 and (4), as can be seen from the daily USD/JPY chart below). The upward reversal from the support level 111.40 continues the active minor impulse wave 3.

USD/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 114.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (iii) with the daily Evening Star). Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 111.40.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11510

 

[riki143]

NZD/JPY reached buy target 79.00
11/29/2016

NZD/JPY reached buy target 79.00
Next buy target - 91.00
NZD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 79.00, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier corrected down shortly to the price level 79.00 (acting as support now after it was broken) – after which the pair reversed up sharply – continuing the active minor impulse wave C, which belongs to the intermediate ABC correction (2) from June.

NZD/JPY is expected to rise further in the active waves C and (2) in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 91.00 (target price calculated for the completion of the active C-wave).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11511

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie settled down on the ledge
11/30/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, there is consolidation within the uptrend. A breakout of the resistance at 1,357 will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 1.368. There is 224% target in the AB = CD pattern.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "Splash and ledge" pattern has been formed on the basis of 1-2-3. Breakout of the upper boundary of the 1.337-1.356 consolidation range or pullback towards the upward trading channel will be a signal for the opening of long positions.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,356 SL 1,3505 TP1 1,368 TP2 1,384,

BUY 1,3175 SL 1,312 TP1 1,356 TP2 1,368.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11513

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 30, 2016
11/30/2016

EUR/USD slid down to 1.0623 on the Asian session. There are two main factors that help USD to crowd the top – speculation that the US newly elected President Donald Trump will pursue inflationary spending and tax policies and anticipation of the Fed’s hike in December (odds hit 100% in the futures market). European inflation data, German retail sales and unemployment change, ADP non-farm payrolls, US personal spending, core PCE, Chicago PMI, pending home sales are on the dock today. As you see this day is rather busy for both – the Eurozone and the US.

USD/JPY dropped towards 112 in the first hours of the session. Preliminary industrial production data for the last month was disappointing although it didn’t bring significant moves to the chart. Then, the US dollar got a new lease of life and jumped to 112.94. The yen didn’t pay much heed to the upbeat economic release on housing starts and continued to weaken in the cross with USD.

AUD/USD fell to 0.7460 on the session after we got a huge miss in the building approvals data.There might be more downside movements in the course of the European session, especially if we get strong US economic releases.

Kiwi was a better performer than Aussie due to some upbringing comments from the RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler (the economy doesn’t need additional fiscal stimulus at the present moment, the recent quakes shook the ground, but not the NZ economic performance, GDP is steady).

Cable took a few baby steps backward to 1.2465. Today’s focus will be on the bank stress results and BOE financial stability report that could bring some significant moves to the GBP/USD chart.

USD/CAD moved higher in the course of the latest session. Later today we will get Canada’s monthly GDP, raw material price index and product price index. The main trigger, however, is the OPEC meetings which will be pressuring CAD and other currencies throughout the day.

OIL

Brent crude oil futures moved up to $47.71 in the early hours of the Asian session. Then, there was a retracement towards $47.63.

OPEC's oil production cut meeting begins at 11 am (MT time) in Vienna today.

Where we are ahead of the meeting:

OPEC made a preliminary agreement in Algier in September to cut oil production at around 32.5-33 million bpd.
Current output is around 33.64 million bpd.
OPEC may exempt Iran, Libya, Nigeria from cuts.
Saudi Arabia promised to cut its output by 0.5 million bpd, but it presses Iran to curb production at around 3.8 million bpd. Iran wants to go as high as 4.2 million bpd.
Iraq also wants higher production limits.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11514

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the prices are fixed inside a Cloud
11/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0580, 1.0610; resistance – 1.0660/80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0630; SL — 1.0610; TP1 — 1.0680; TP2 – 1.0735.

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud, but rising Senkou Span A; a correctional golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud; strong support of Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou Span A.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11515

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: going on to SSB
11/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7450, 0.7470; resistance – 0.7540.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7480; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7540.

2. Sell — 0.7540; SL — 0.7560; TP1 — 0.7440; TP2 — 0.7390.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and Kijun-sen; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11516

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" led to upward movement
11/30/2016

The price is consolidating under the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.0617 – 1.0578. If a pullback from these levels happens, bulls will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average.

We’ve got a resistance at 1.0657, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.0578 in the short term. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11520

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-Top" at the local high
11/30/2016

There’s a flat, which is taking place along the Moving Averages. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the nearest support area at 1.2439 – 1.2379. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an option to have a correction towards a resistance at 1.2511 – 1.2556.

We’ve got a local “V-Top” pattern, which led to the current consolidation. So, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2439 – 1.2414 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try test a resistance at 1.2524 – 1.2530 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11521

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, November 30th
11/30/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 1 750 ? + 13 843 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0664; 1.0685; 1.0706; 1.0739
Closest support levels 1.0630; 1.0607; 1.0570; 1.0517
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0630, with target points at 1.0607 and 1.0570
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0664 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0685 and 1.0706

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11522

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 296 ? - 1 553 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2527; 1.2556; 1.2593; 1.2649
Closest support levels 1.2487; 1.2461; 1.2417; 1.2354
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2487, with target points at 1.2461 and 1.2417
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2527 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2556 and 1.2593


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 251 ? + 439 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3434; 1.3477; 1.3519; 1.3574
Closest support levels 1.3410; 1.3392; 1.3378; 1.3353
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3410, with the target points at 1.3392 and 1.3378
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3434 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3477 and 1.3519

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11522

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish "Engulfing"
11/30/2016

There’s a resistance by the 34 Moving Average. However, the market is likely going to test the next resistance level, which could bring a new bearish pattern afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “High Wave”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance soon.

We’ve got an “Engulfing” at the last low. If this pattern confirms the price is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. Considering a possible break of this line, there’s an opportunity see the market even higher.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11523

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Inverted Hammer" pushing price higher
11/30/2016

The 21 Moving Average acted as a support, so the price found a lodgement above the nearest “Window”. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the closest resistance once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, today’s candle is white, so bulls will probably try to test the last high.

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Three Methods”, so bulls are likely going to reach the nearest resistance area in the short term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11524