Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie supported by Kijun-sen
11/24/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7360/70; resistance – 0.7400, 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7400; SL — 0.7420; TP1 — 0.7350; TP2 — 0.7320.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; correctional golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11444

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, November 24th
11/24/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 20 938 ? + 122 194 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0576; 1.0612; 1.0645; 1.0666
Closest support levels 1.0542(29?); 1.0505; 1.0467; 1.0413
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0542, with target points at 1.0505 and 1.0467
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0576 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0612 and 1.0645


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 248 ? + 163 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2452; 1.2480(71?); 1.2526; 1.2549
Closest support levels 1.2401; 1.2368; 1.2345; 1.2318
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2401, with target points at 1.2368 and 1.2345
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2452 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2480 and 1.2526


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 818 ? + 2 385 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.73; 114.05; 114.44; 114.89
Closest support levels 112.46; 112.07; 111.72; 111.47
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 112.46, with the target points at 112.07 and 111.72
Alternative scenario Moving above 113.73 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 114.05 and 114.44

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11445

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD is moving towards “parity”
11/24/2016

According to SocGen strategists, the euro may reach the parity with the US dollar in the first quarter of 2017, before rising back to 1.09 by the end of 2017.

There are several factors that can contribute to the EUR downfall:

There is a threat of political tail risk and “splintering of Europe” in the end of this year and in 2017;
“The repeating of the history”: after the US election, EUR/USD slumped below 1.06 the lowest level since ECB launched its first bond purchasing program in March 2015 and since Mario Draghi had signaled of the continuation of the easing policy a year ago. In the latest comments, the ECB President said that the QE tapering is unlikely in the near-term future and made us believe that the bank can introduce more easing measures in the upcoming months.
Trump’s effect: the greenback spearheaded right after the newly elected US president laid out the specifics of its pro-growth and low-tax economic policies that should push the Fed to raise interest rates more often next year.
Widening of the spread between Italian and German government bond yields is a proxy for political fragmentation in the currency union, according to SocGen’s analysts. They refer to the first quarter of 2013 when Italy’s center-left won the general election and the 5 Star Movement outpaced Mario Monti’s centrist coalition. In the tree weeks before the Italian election, EUR/USD slumped to 1.3194 from 1.3660. Then, the euro weakened even further to 1.2772 in the 4 weeks that followed the election results as Italian BTP/Bund spreads widened. As we countdown towards the Italian referendum, the euro is poised to a further depreciation against the greenback.
Before the election of Trump SocGen anticipated a spike of the Fed funds rateof 1.25 – 1.50%, but now it looks for 1.75-2.0%. For the ECB SG’s strategists predict tapering will start in march with the objective of ending the banks’ asset purchase program in early 2018.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc, in its top trade ideas for 2017 offered pretty much the same forecast for EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs’ strategists believe that the euro will sink to parity vs. US dollar over the next 12 months.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11446

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 25, 2016
11/25/2016

USD/JPY climbed above 113.90 overnight on rising 10-year US bond yields. Japanese inflation data came slightly higher than it was expected and ahead of the figure of the last month, but it is still very low to push BOJ to taper its accommodative monetary policy.

EUR/USD slipped down yesterday in the countdown to Italy’s constitutional referendum scheduled for December 4. The euro rose to 1.0575 in the course of Asian session as 10-year US Treasuries had finally slowed down their pace. Later today we will receive goods trade balance data for the US (the consensus forecast indicates an extended divergence between American exports and imports), and flash services PMI.

AUD/USD gained some point having risen to 0.7435 mainly of the rising prices of copper and iron ore. Kiwi moved upwards to 0.7025 in the cross with USD availing of the drop in the US Treasuries.

USD/CAD slid down below 1.3480 due to the weakening of the greenback. Oil prices were mostly steady as investors are waiting for the next week's meeting of the OPEC for clarity on proposed output cut.

GBP/USD didn’t make big moves on the session. The pair is slowly rising towards the next resistance line located at 1.2465. The trigger of today’s session is the British second estimate GDP. The reading should be bullish for the pound. Many strategists call on the market participants to give the pound a break. It has already weakened significantly since the UK voted to leave the EU on June 23. There is little reason to buy/sell the cable aggressively before any news on the UK/EU relationship surface.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11454

 

[riki143]

Gold loses the firm ground
11/25/2016

On the daily chart of gold, quotes reached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last long-term upward wave. A breakout of the support located at $1172 can open the way towards $1150. There is target 127.2% in the "Perfect butterfly" pattern.

On the hourly chart of gold, prices continue to move down towards the target 200% in the pattern AB = CD. It corresponds to the $1141 level. A rollback followed by the rebound from the upper boundary of the descending trading channel will be a signal for sales.

Recommendations:

SELL $1195 SL $1230 TP1 $1145 TP2 $1120,

SELL $1210 SL $1230 TP $1145.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11455

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: crab leads bulls to the north
11/25/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" managed to test the resistance line located at 111.35 and pushed the quotes towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave. The prices continue to rise towards the target 161.8% (119) in "Crab" inverted pattern. You may continue to buy on the pullbacks or on the breakout of the previously formed high.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the uptrend. The next support levels are located near the 112.55 and 110.9 levels. If there are not tested, it will be a signal for the opening of the long positions.

Recommendations: BUY 112,55 SL 112 TP1 114,25 TP2 116,8 TP3 119 BUY 110,9 TP1 114,25 TP2 116,8.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11456

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: correction may continue to the Clouds
11/255/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0560; resistance – 1.0630.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0630; SL — 1.0650; TP1 — 1.0570; TP2 – 1.0510.

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices breaking out the Tenkan-Kijun resistance.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11458

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is still unsure
11/25/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2425, 1.2370; resistance – 1.2480/90.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2460; SL — 1.2440; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2610.

2. Sell — 1.2420; SL — 1.2440; TP1 — 1.2310; TP2 — 1.2230.

Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11459

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
11/25/2016

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11462/25-11-2016-EUR-H4.png[/QIMG]

The price faced a support at 1.0522, which led to the current consolidation, so bulls are likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0617. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0493.

[IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11462/25-11-2016-EUR-H1.png

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between a resistance at 1.0582 and a support at 1.0522. Also, we’ve got a possible bearish “Flag”. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0600 – 1.0617. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to get another support at 1.0493.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11462

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: flat going to move on
11/25/2016

[IMG[https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11463/25-11-2016-GBP-H4.png[/IMG]

The price is consolidating along the nearest Moving Averages. It’s likely that the pair is going to reach a resistance at 1.2511 – 1.2556 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.

We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, so the price achieved a support at 1.2429. Also, there’s a possible “Trinagle” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.2486 – 1.2507. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will have a chance to reach a support at 1.2400.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11463

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "High Wave" on the Moving Average
11/25/2016

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Hammer”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Doji” inside the last “Morning Star”, but a confirmation of this patter is still developing. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local upward correction.

There price has been rising since a “Harami” arrived at the local low. However, we’ve got a “High Wave” at the last high, so the price is likely going to test the closest support. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11464

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Tower" at the high
11/25/2016

There’s a local correction, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the local high. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the price is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local bullish correction.

The price faced a support at 1.0522, which led to the current consolidation, so bulls are likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0617. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0493.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11465

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for Nov. 28-Dec.2
111/25/2016

Weekly Recap

This week was rather choppy for EUR/USD. The euro rose on Monday not paying much heed to the ECB President Draghi’s commitment to preserving accommodative policy as long as it is needed. The US dollar recovered its losses on Wednesday as we got strong data on the US durable goods orders and “hawkish” FOMC meeting minutes. Many Federal Reserve officials said a rate rise could be appropriate “relatively soon” due to the upbringing headlines of the recent US economic data. On Friday, the European currency gained some strength benefiting from the sagging US Treasury yields.

Weekly Focus

Next week, we will hear some words from Mario Draghi on the ECB’s monetary developments. Annual data on M3 money supply will be released on Monday. It’s positively correlated with interest rates, so any increases can offer support to the euro. On Tuesday, we will get a bunch of inflation data from the key Eurozone countries and preliminary GDP for the US. On Wednesday, watch for the US ADP non-farm payrolls and German economic releases (retail sales and unemployment claims). Stock up with some depressants as ground-shaking average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are expected on Friday.

Weekly Strategies

If we look at the daily technical chart we can notice the beginning of the uptrend. There is a doji candlestick – a signal of the bullish reversal. RSI ticked up from the oversold area. It seems that the US dollar’s long-term strengthening is exhausted. So, the pair may move up towards the nearest resistances located at 1.0635 (near the 50 H4 MA), 1.0807 (near the 23.6% Fibo retracement level formed from the May 3 high). Skepticism about the efficiency of the ECB’s stimulus to spur economic growth and political risk associated with Italy’s referendum can drag quotes towards the nearest supports located at 1.0560 (November 24 low) and towards the 1.0455 level (2015 year low).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11466

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for Nov. 28-Dec. 2
11/25/2016

AUD/USD made a big swing this week having risen from 0.7310 to 0.7468. Aussie’s boost can be attributed to the rising commodity prices as economic forecasts for Australia changed only a little.

Next week should bring more volatility to the AUD/USD chart. On Tuesday, traders will be scrambling to decipher the impact of the US preliminary GDP on the movement of the pair. Australian construction data will be released on Wednesday. On Thursday watch for the Australian private capital expenditure followed by the bunch of China’s manufacturing data. In the end of the week, traders will focus on the Australian retail sales, US average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate.

The technical picture for AUD/USD for the present moment is “bullish”. The quotes can move up towards nearest resistances located at 1.7460 (50% Fibo retracement level formed from the May 24 low), 0.7520 (200-day MA) and 0.7590 (near 50-day MA). In the longer term, there can be some rebounds towards nearest support located at 0.7387 (Fibo retracement level) and 0.7300. The US dollar has all chances to strengthen again next week, especially, if we get upbeat economic releases.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11467

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for Nov. 28-Dec. 2
11/25/2016

This week GBP/USD was trading in the wide range between 1.2510-1.2310. The pair made a big swing ahead of the Autumn statement but then slid down on the strong release of US durable goods orders and “hawkish” FOMC meeting minutes. By the end of the week, the pound rose again on the upbeat preliminary business investment and smooth inflation-adjusted GDP data.

Next week traders will be watching for the US preliminary GDP releases on Tuesday. On Wednesday keep in focus the banks stress test results that should assess the resilience of major UK banks to “tail-risk” effects. Then, we will get the financial stability report from the Bank of England, followed by the bunch of the US economic releases (ADP non-farm payrolls, pending home sales, core PCE price index and the monthly update of the US personal spending). On Thursday, we will know about the health of the UK and the US manufacturing industry. The British construction PMI, the US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are expected on Friday.

In the near term, GBP/USD should continue to trade within the borders of Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour timeframe. The nearest resistances are located at 1.2487 and 1.2515 levels. If the US statistical data come ahead of the market’s expectations, quotes may slide down towards the supports at 1.2410 and 1.2333 (200 H4 MA).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11468

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance area
11/25/2016

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance area
Next sell target – 1.6300
GBP/AUD recently reversed down from the resistance area lying between the round resistance level 1.7000, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from 1 from the middle of September. The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 (3) (which belong to the sharp long-term impulse wave ? from May) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.6300. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 1.7000.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11469

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7440
11/25/2016

AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7440
Next buy target - 0.7500
AUD/USD today reached the resistance level 0.7440 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the second minor corrective wave 2 which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the powerful support level 0.7310.

If the pair closes this week above the resistance level 0.7440 - AUD/USD can then be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the key resistance level 0.7500 (standing close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the start of this month).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11470

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [iv] ended
11/25/2016

There’s a bearish impulse in wave 1. It’s likely that wave [iv] is going to end soon. If so, bears will probably try to break -2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). In this case, we’ll have a new levels’ indication on the chart.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible zigzag in wave [iv]. Therefore, if wave (i) arrives afterwards, there’ll an opportunity to have a new low shortly. The nearest target is -2/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11471

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, November 28th
11/28/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 668 ? - 76 513 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0614; 1.0640; 1.0665; 1.0703
Closest support levels 1.0571; 1.0542; 1.0522; 1.0497
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0571, with target points at 1.0542 and 1.0522
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0614 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0640 and 1.0665


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 32 ? - 103 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2487(97?); 1.2527; 1.2548; 1.2574
Closest support levels 1.2461; 1.2441; 1.2421; 1.2387
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2461, with target points at 1.2441 and 1.2421
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2487 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2527 and 1.2548

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 40 ? + 3 957 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.38; 113.60; 114.00; 114.27
Closest support levels 113.07; 112.57; 112.15; 111.86
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.07, with the target points at 112.57 and 112.15
Alternative scenario Moving above 113.38 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 113.60 and 114.00


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 119 ? + 298 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3526; 1.3550; 1.3578; 1.3617
Closest support levels 1.3506(12?); 1.3479; 1.3454; 1.3416
Trading recommendations
Scenario 1 Long USD/CAD above 1.3526, with the target points at 1.3550 and 1.3578
Scenario 2 Short USD/CAD below 1.3506, with the target points at 1.3479 and 1.3454

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11472

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & Draghi Testimony: Looking for the parity zone?
11/28/2016

Today at 14:00 GMT, ECB’s President Mario Draghi will testify once again from Brussels and we should remind that his latest speech was dovish, which helped the Euro to post new yearly lows across the board. Draghi already made remarks about downside disk that are weighing on Eurozone’s economy and his dovish rhetoric could remain present during this testimony, ahead of last ECB’s meeting in 2016.

Our technical overview for EUR/USD at H1 chart remains strongly bearish, as the pair is following a second-degree bearish trend line plotted from November 17th and it’s expected to pullback towards the 1.0527 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains below the 200 SMA, further declines are likely to happen in order to break new supports, because all targets are pointing to a possible parity in the mid-term. However, if Draghi’s words have some hawkish tone, it could rise towards the 1.0645 level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11473