Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: waiting the correction
11/17/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0680/90; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0790.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0700; SL — 1.0680; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0790.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong support under 1.0700 and oversold market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11349

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bullish trend may continue
11/17/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2420; resistance – 1.2520, 1.2610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2610.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of the Cloud and Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11350

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls are stopped by 110.00
11/17/2016

Technical levels: support – 108.70, 107.90; resistance – 109.30, 109.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 109.00; SL — 109.20; TP1 — 108.50; TP2 — 107.90.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Tenkan-sen and Senkou Span; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance levels.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11351

 

[riki143]

Eurozone political risk calendar and EUR/USD forecasts
11/17/2016

EUR/USD was weakening for eight consecutive days following the US presidential election outcome. Many analysts believe that the euro will continue to move downwards with some reoccurring rebounds.

There are several fundamental reasons for such forecast:

widening the US – Eurozone interest rate differentials;
an anticipation of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policies in par with a faster pace of Fed hikes;
the ECB will favor the euro weakening until it becomes disorderly;
troubled political circumstances in the euro area. Just look at the European political calendar. You will see that next year and the end of this year will be rather turbulent and grotty for the Eurozone.

The pair rose today on the slowing pace of the US Treasuries yields. It could be viewed as a short-term correction. The overall sentiment for the euro is still “bearish”.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11352

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, November 17th
11/17/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 32 483 ? + 93 958 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0746; 1.0776; 1.0794; 1.0817
Closest support levels 1.0670; 1.0651; 1.0621; 1.0578
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0670, with target points at 1.0651 and 1.0621
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0746 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0776 and 1.0794


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 228 ? + 480 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2497; 1.2527; 1.2547; 1.2570
Closest support levels 1.2446; 1.2426/11; 1.2387; 1.2350
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2446, with target points at 1.2426/11 and 1.2387
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2497 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2527 and 1.2547


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 2 991 ? + 1 607 ?
Closest resistance levels 109.34; 109.65; 109.99; 110.22
Closest support levels 108.79; 108.55; 108.14; 107.87
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 109.34, with the target points at 109.65 and 109.99
Alternative scenario Moving below 108.79 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 108.55 and 108.14


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 489 ? + 522 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3446; 1.3466; 1.3486; 1.3515
Closest support levels 1.3394; 1.3373; 1.3342; 1.3303
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short (?) USD/CAD below 1.3394, with the target points at 1.3373 and 1.3342
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3446 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3466 and 1.3486


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11355

 

[riki143]

Review on Kathy Lien's book
11/17/2016

If you want to know Forex market from tip to toe you should read Kathy Lien’s book “Daily trading & swing trading the currency market”. There is something for everyone and any kind of trading emergencies.

With every Lien’s chapter you become wiser because…

The first chapter of the book will tell you everything about Bretton Woods financial system, George Soros, Asian financial crisis, the launch of the euro and Plaza Accord, so as you could flaunt your knowledge at some fancy cocktail dinner.

The next chapter will unveil a secret of some high-profile market prophets so as you could forecast currency fluctuations by yourself.

The third chapter will remind you of time differences so as you trade at right period of time to increase the profitability of your bets.

In the subsequent chapters, Kathy Lien will teach you how to build your own trading plan and share some technical and fundamental strategies with you.

The final chapter is perhaps the most valuable as it tells us about the unique characteristic of each major currency pair (what are the drivers of a certain currency pair, which economic releases should be watched to unravel its movement, when it can experience great fluctuations).

So, if you want to know all these things, read “Day trading” book from cover to cover and become a real trading guru.

DOWNLOAD THE BOOK

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11356

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD under bearish pressure
11/17/2016

AUD/NZD falling inside the minor impulse wave
Next sell target – 1.0470
AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the minor impulse wave 3 from the start of October. The active wave (iii) started when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 1.0660 (lower boundary of the strong resistance zone, which has been reversing the price from May). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.0660 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

AUD/NZD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the key support level 1.0470 (which reversed the pair at the start of this month).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11357

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave 2
11/17/2016

AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave 2
Next sell target - 0.7440
AUD/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor corrective wave 2 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.7800 and 0.7730 (which resistance zone has been reversing the price from April). This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

AUD/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the strong support level 0.7440 (forecast price for the completion of the active minor correction 2 and the low of the previous wave (2) from September).

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11358/AUDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Nov-17_1307_PM_(1_day).png[/IG]

More:
[URL=https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11358]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11358[/URL]

 

[riki143]

Fundamental analysis for GBP/USD
11/17/2016

GBP/USD rose mainly on the upbeat retail sales report released earlier today. As soon as the High Court announced its decision on the legality of “Brexit” traders warmed to sterling having stopped to sell it disorderly. Now the market awaits a decision of the Supreme Court to confirm their “bullish” sentiments towards GBP. Morgan Stanley believes that the “Brexit” process might be delayed as the UK government may need to pass the Great Repeal bill before triggering Article 50. It should take lots of time as the law-making process in the UK usually, proceed at snail’s pace.

Next week traders will keep in focus the Autumn Statement. According to Financial Times, Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. This may send the pound down. Some analysts, however, believe that the market’s reaction to the Autumn Statement should be limited, as it is already aware of the negative impact of “Brexit”.

For example, BNP Paribas is still long GBP/USD targeting 1.2924. According to BNPP’s analysts, the pound has a room for the short-term appreciation with BoE maintaining its neutral monetary stance and with private sector’s anticipations of a higher inflation rate. But in the longer-term GBP/USD should fall again with the rising uncertainty over the US future and USD strengthening.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11359

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: two "Flags" in a row
11/18/2016

There’s a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.0600 – 1.0572. However, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0673 – 1.0710.

The price faced a support at 1.0616. At the same time, there’s a possible bearish pattern, so the pair is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.0600 – 1.0572. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.0673 – 1.0710.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11360

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bearish "Triangle"
11/18/2016

The price is consolidating between the nearest resistance at 1.2556 and the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2330 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to see a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2621.

We’ve got a possible “Triangle” pattern here. So, the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2399 – 1.2351. Meanwhile, there’s a chance to have an upward correction later on.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11361

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to reach support line
11/18/2016

There’s a bearish trend on the Daily chart. Also, we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. However, there’s an opportunity to have a local upward correction, but bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards.

We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern on the four-hours chart. Moreover, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. At the same time, if we see any bullish pattern, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11362

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as support
11/18/2016

We’ve got a “Doji” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet, so bulls are still here. In this case, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance soon. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an option to have a bearish correction.

The last “Window” acted as a support. Also, we have a “High Wave” at the last low. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11363

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & Draghi Speech: Are we about to see a bottom in the Euro?
11/18/2016

Today at 08:00 GMT will speak the ECB’s president Mario Draghi from Frankfurt; the current location of the central bank’s offices. It should be interesting to see what will be the reaction from the ECB leader after CPI in the Eurozone and maybe we can hear something about Donald Trump’s victory as the new United States president. With that being said, Draghi’s speech could bring some volatility to the markets.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at daily chart remains strongly bearish, as the pair already refreshed its lowest level in nearly one year. There is also a moving average crossover ongoing and eventually, the pair could plummet to test the support zone of 1.0561, which is a very strong barrier for sellers across the board. However, to the upside, if EUR/USD manages to break higher the 1.0641 level, then it can test the 1.0750 zone.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11364

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: Crab will show the way to bulls
11/18/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, after target on the previously formed long was fulfilled, "bulls" faced with the convergence zone. If they manage to test the resistance at 1.009 (78,6% Fibo level from XA wave), the transformation of "Gartley" pattern to the "Crab" pattern will open the way towards 1,077 for them.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, correction in the direction of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel, the 23,6% level formed from the last "bullish" wave and target 88,6% in the "Shark" pattern should be used for the formation of long positions.

Recommendation: BUY 0,994 SL 0,9875 TP1 1,017 TP2 1,077.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11365

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls continue their rally
11/18/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, after targets on the previously formed longs were fulfilled, "bulls" face with the resistance at 1.3572 (50% Fibo retracement level from the last long-term downward wave + target 161,8% in the "Crab" inverted pattern). A successful test of the bears' strongholds can lead to the continuation of the bulls' rally towards 1.369 and 1.384.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "bulls" accelerate their pace. A breakout of resistance at 1,3575 will be a signal for opening long positions.

Recommendation: BUY 1,3575 SL 1,352 TP1 1,369 TP2 1,384.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11366

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 18,2016
11/18/2016

USD/JPY surged above 110.55. The greenback was buoyed after Fed Chair Yellen confirmed that a rate hike could come “relatively” soon. Yesterday the BOJ launched an implementation of its yield curve policy buying JGBs to weaken the yen. Today the bank’s operations were renewed. Another factor that contributes to the strengthening of USD is the rise of the US Treasuries.

PM of Japan Shinzo Abe and future US president Donald Trump are going to meet today. Traders will be watching for any comments from Trump on its policy in relation to Japan and other Asian countries. In the course of his election campaign he was repeatedly accusing Japanese and Chinese governments of currency manipulations threatening to impose tariffs on their imports.

EUR/USD slumped to 1.0620, a low that the pair experienced a year ago. Today traders will be waiting for the ECP president Mario Draghi speech at the 26th European Banking Congress at 10:30 am (Metatrader time). Volatility is usually experienced as he speaks.

AUD/USD slumped below 0.7370 on the Asian session mainly on the USD strengthening.

NZD/USD fell as well. This week was rather “shaky” for New Zealand as it is struggling with damages after huge Monday’s earthquake. Statistics New Zealand did a great job. Its website is listing some of the delayed data that is not officially released (official data releases will commence from Monday). The retail sales report is in line with expectation (+0.9% prior +2.3%), but treat this result with caution until official figures surface.

GBP/USD edged down below the support at 1.2420. Today’s session should be rather smooth for the pound.

USD/CAD rose to 1.3582 (50% Fibo retracement level from January 2016 high). Brent oil futures fell to $46 mark hit by the US dollar’s strength.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11367

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD weekly outlook for Nov.21-25, 2016
11/18/2016

GBP/USD fell this week mainly on the strengthening of the US dollar. On Tuesday, the Bank of England governor Mark Carney in his testimony to the Treasury Select Committee said that he expects the inflation rate to rise despite the weak report on the latest annual CPI. This makes us believe that Bank of England won’t recourse to easing measures in the near-term future. On Wednesday, we had good data releases on the UK labor market. On Thursday, the pound rose on the upbeat retail sales release and on the speculation, that “Brexit” might be delayed up to 2 years.

Despite the decent statistical data coming from the UK, the pound failed to outpace the US dollar which continues to rise in relation to other major currencies.

Next week on Wednesday traders will be watching for the Autumn Statement. It can have a negative impact on the pound as Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. On Friday, keep in focus quarterly releases of the inflation-adjusted GDP and preliminary business investment coming from the UK.

Technically, GBP/USD has room for appreciation up to the nearest resistance lines located at 1.2435 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud), 1.2460 (50 MA on H4) and 1.2550. It is confirmed by the daily Stochastic which remains in the oversold territory. 100 MA crossed 200 MA on H4 and moved upwards. But the likelihood of the Fed’s December rate hike on the back of accelerating growth of the US economy should outweigh the pound’s attempts to grow and send quotes towards 1.2355, 1.2230 levels.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11369

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, November 18th
11/18/2016

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 91 ? + 140 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2437; 1.2466/78; 1.2510; 1.2532
Closest support levels 1.2420; 1.2390; 1.2369; 1.2336
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2420, with target points at 1.2390 and 1.2369
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2437 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2466/78 and 1.2510


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 4 034 ? + 1 234 ?
Closest resistance levels 110.51; 110.93; 111.21; 111.54
Closest support levels 109.67; 109.36; 109.02; 108.52
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 110.51, with the target points at 110.93 and 111.21
Alternative scenario Moving below 109.67 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 109.36 and 109.02


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11371

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD weekly outlook for Nov.21-25, 2016
11/18/2016

AUD/USD slumped to 0.7370 in the course this week following the sharp fall in iron ore prices and broader USD strength. Weak statistical data on the Australian wage growth and employment fell of the expectations contributing to the Aussie’s downfall.

We see more AUD downside going forward on the back of the Fed’s rate hike in December, falling commodity prices and loosening RBA monetary policy. The nearest support lies at 0.7300. If commodity prices start rising again or the US statistical releases show some data distortions, Aussie may rise towards 0.7436, 0.7513 (200-day MA) resistance lines.

Next week watch for the Australian existing home sales report and data on the inflation-adjusted value of the completed construction projects. US unemployment claims, revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectations can also add some changes to the AUD/USD technical chart. On Wednesday, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting minutes.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11373