Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to move on
11/14/2016

The price is still rising, so we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, which means bulls are likely going to move on toward the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, all last candles are bullish, so there’s an opportunity to see the market even higher.

We’ve got a new local high on the one-hour chart. However, there’s an option to have a local correction in the direction of the 13 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to move on.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11301

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 1 going to be continued
11/14/2016

There’s a possible triangle in wave (Y) of . Also, we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Line (P=200), so there’s a bearish impulse in wave 1 on the way. The main intraday target is -1/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the H4 chart, wave E of (Y) formed a zigzag. So, the price is declining in wave 1. It seems like, wave [iii] of 1 is going to be continued during the day.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11302

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY broke resistance zone
11/14/2016

USD/JPY broke resistance zone
Next buy target - 109.00
USD/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of August. The price today broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 107.50 (top of the earlier primary ABC correction ② from July) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous extended downward impulse from April.

The breakout of this resistance zone is expected to accelerate the active impulse wave C. USD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the nearby resistance level 109.00 (standing close to 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the aforementioned downward impulse from April).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11303

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD broke strong support level 1.0850
11/14/2016

EUR/USD broke strong support level 1.0850
Next sell target - 1.0700
EUR/USD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the strong support level 1.0850 (which reversed the earlier waves (a), 2 and (i), as can be seen below). The breakout of the support level 1.0850 intensified the bearish pressure on this currency par – accelerating the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of April.

EUR/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.0700 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active intermediate ABC correction (2)). This support level is also intersecting with the support trendline of the daily down channel from April.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11304

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & US Retail Sales for October: Who can stop the US Dollar rally?
15/11/2016

Today at 13:30 GMT will be released the US retail sales for October and we’re expecting no changes from last reading of 0.6% in September. During the last data, we saw an increase in the number, following a decline posted in August, but market’s analysts are optimistic about further gains for October. This event is also expected to bring some hints about further topping or continuation in the US dollar index, which has been strengthening after Donald Trump’s victory as the new US president.

Our technical view for USD/JPY at H1 chart remains bullish, as the pair remains well consolidated above the 50 SMA, but it’s reaching extreme levels to the upside. Currently, USD/JPY is trading around the 123.6% Fibo extension and one cannot rule out further advances towards the 110.03 level, if retail sales come better-than-expected. In a weak or dovish scenario, the pair is expected to start a corrective move until the 106.24 level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11305

 

[riki143]

Gold prices are under control of bears
15/11/2016

On the daily chart of gold, prices were stopped by the important support at $1210. It is located at 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last mid-term upward wave. A successful attack of "bears" can lead to the implementation of the "Perfect Butterfly." Its 127.2% target is located near the $1150 level. The nearest resistance can be found near the $1,250 level.

On the hourly chart of gold, until quotes rise to the lower boundary of the last upward trading channel ($1,275), "bears" will remain their control over the market. Resistance levels are located near the $1240 and $ 1260 levels.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11306

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen faced with the "Crab" pattern
15/11/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, quotes came closer to the upper boundary of the upward trading channel. A breakout of resistance at 108.85 can open the way to 110.1 and increase risks of the implementation of the 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern. It corresponds to the 112.4 level. The nearest support is located near 106.75.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the quotes are accelerating the pace of their rally. If the "bulls" manage to keep the quotes above 108.24% level, the target 200% in the AB = CD pattern will likely be fulfilled. Rebound from the upper boundary of the last upward channel will be a signal for opening long positions.

Recommendation: BUY 106,75 SL 106,2 TP 109,9.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11307

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for November 15, 2016
15/11/2016

EUR/USD traded higher in the late session having approached to 1.0760. Then, the pair drifted back towards 1.0740. There was no news that could support the euro; many analysts predict that the greenback should bring more gains in near term on the rising Treasury yields. Today traders will be waiting for the bunch of statistical data from the Eurozone (German preliminary GDP, German ZEW Economic sentiment, French final CPI, flash quarterly GDP, trade balance and economic sentiment for the Eurozone countries) that should heat up the movement of this currency pair.

USD/JPY soared to 108.40 in the Asian session today and then slid back to 107.76. Keep in focus the US retail sales and manufacturing data to define which way USD goes next.

AUD/USD experienced some small gains in the course of the late session due to the minutes from the RBA’s meeting. We must admit that the minutes had a lesser effect on Aussie’s performance than the RBA’s statement itself. The latter document, unlike the former one, contains more information on the future of RBA’s monetary policy and in-depth analysis of the present economic situation of Australia.

NZD/USD edged up to over 0.7140. Having failed to take hold at this point, Kiwi rolled back in the direction of 0.7100. It seems that consequences of the massive earthquake still weigh on the currency. Quarterly retail sales releases which are due to show up later today should drag quotes lower (consensus forecasts indicate tangible declines).

The main focus of today’s session will on GBP/USD currency pair as we will receive a package of the UK inflation data (CPI, PPI input, HPI, inflation report hearing). Consensus forecasts indicate increases in the rate of inflation. At the present moment, GBP/USD is trading smoothly within 1.2530-1.2440 range waiting for some ground-shaking events to come (maybe Supreme Court decision on the UK government’s powers to invoke Article 50 scheduled for the beginning of December will be a trigger).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11308

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bullish trend is going on
15/11/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560, 1.2610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2450; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2610.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal except Kijun-sen; strong support of the Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11309

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: market is under resistance[//B]
15/11/2016

Technical levels: support – 106.90, 107.30; resistance – 108.80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 108.80; SL — 109.00; TP1 — 108.00; TP2 — 107.30.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising lines of Ichimoku Indicator; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Clouds; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance near 109.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11310

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: support waiting for bears
15/11/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0710, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0673 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

There’s a possible “Pennant” pattern, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0710 – 1.0673 during the day. However, there’s an opportunity to have a price movement towards a resistance at 1.0777 – 1.0807 later on.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11311

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears on the way to test trend line
15/11/2016

The price faced a resistance at 1.2677, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be option to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677.

Bears found a support on the 89 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2429 – 1.2399 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2621.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11312

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, November 15th
15/11/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 57 636 ? - 131 637 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0778; 1.0802(19?); 1.0838; 1.0861
Closest support levels 1.0738; 1.0711; 1.0688; 1.0652
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0778, with target points at 1.0802/19 and 1.0838
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0738 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0711 and 1.0688


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 313 ? + 2 333 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2504; 1.2528/38; 1.2565
Closest support levels 1.2459; 1.2439; 1.2407; 1.2364
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2459, with target points at 1.2439 and 1.2407
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2504 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2528 and 1.2565


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 547 ? + 1 853 ?
Closest resistance levels 108.51(57?); 108.80; 109.05; 109.41
Closest support levels 107.67; 107.45; 107.18; 106.87
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 108.51, with the target points at 108.80 and 109.05
Alternative scenario Moving below 107.67 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 107.45 and 107.18


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 559 ? + 510 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3563; (1.3576 ?); 1.3607; 1.3635
Closest support levels 1.3495; 1.3472; 1.3439; 1.3398
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3563, with the target points at 1.3607 and 1.3635
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3495 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3472 and 1.3439

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11313

 

[riki143]

“Trump’s effect” on the US bonds
15/11/2016

Many economists, financiers wrestled with subject how to raise the inflation expectations of the private sector. They suggested sophisticated policies for the economic recovery from the recession, perform mathematical computations; Kuroda, Draghi and other financial pundits made their pledges to raise inflation rates, but all in vain. Then, one very charismatic Republican won the US presidential election and made people believe in the prospects of a higher inflation rate with the only phrase: “I will cut taxes, extend government spending”. So, that’s how it works. Japan needs its own Trump to spur its inflation rates.

The immediate reaction to the inflation expectation is rising bond yields. After Trump’s victory 10-year US Treasury yields extended their rise as investors braced for higher inflation in the United States. Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose to the highest level since January. Technical indicators such as the relative strength index signaled Treasuries selloff went too far. The 10-year yield’s RSI rose to about 83, which is the highest level since 1990. Usually, if this number goes above 70, it means that yields are overbought, and the notes are oversold.

Trump’s promise to spur the infrastructure spending and cut taxes should spur economic growth and boost inflation rate followed by the Fed’s policy tightening. Emerging markets are railing at their fates as capitals move to the US amid concerns Trump will implement its protectionist plans. So, there is a double trigger that drives the Treasuries – anticipation of the Fed’s tightening and uncertainty over Trump’s presidency. According to John Davies, a rates strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, there is a room for further expansion of bond’s spreads. And with this expansion, we may expect a further USD appreciation.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11314

 

[riki143]

Oz Forex System: 100-800 Pips Per Trade
15/11/2016

Perhaps, everybody knows a fairy tale about heroic orphan child Dorothy Gale and her little dog Toto whose house was blown into Oz by a tornado. It seems that traders while creating the OzFX trading system became reminiscent of their childhood and decided to name their strategy after the marvelous land from Baum’s tale. As the result, we have a powerful and very profitable trading strategy with a bit odd name. Enough talk, let’s find out how to trade with this strategy.

“Key ingredients”

Daily timeframe

Any currency pairs

Tools: Stochastic indicator + AC (Accelerator Oscillator) technical indicator

How to trade Stochastic and AC

Stochastic

Traders are always hunting for ways to catch new trends in development. Stochastic is a handy weapon for this purpose. It is made up of two lines. The red line is a signal line and the green line is the line that trails the price movement. Two lines are bound between 0 and 100. There are also two additional marks (20% and 80%) which indicate the overbought/oversold areas.

“Sell signal” occurs when green line touches or breaks 80% level and crosses the signal, red line (the green line should be below the red line after crossover).

“Buy signal” occurs when the green line reaches/surpasses the 20% mark and crosses 20% line (the green line should be above the red line after crossover).

Accelerator Oscillator

The indicator has two scales: positive and negative. The middle line of the oscillator is a “0” mark which separates -/+ areas. If histogram crosses it and moves downwards – it’s a “sell signal”. If histogram crosses zero mark and moves upwards – it’s a “buy signal”.

OzFx trading rules

The main indicator for the entry point is AC. Stochastic is used as a filter of false entries.

If Stochastic gives you a “buy signal”, and AC green bands move into the positive area, you can enter the market long.

Once you defined your entry point you should open not just one, but 5 lots. To each lot you should assign stop-loss at 100 pips. Take-profits should be placed in the following order:

Trade with 5 Lots with Stop Loss 100 pips away

Take Profit on 1st Lot at 50 pips. Move Stop Loss to Break Even (BE).

Take Profit on 2nd Lot at 100 pips.

Take Profit on 3rd Lot at 150 pips.

Take Profit on 4th Lot at 200 pips.

Let the 5th Lot run until you see an opposite entry signal.

Nota bene! When the first order reaches take-profit, you should shift other orders into “breakeven” point.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11315

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: price reached important support
11/16/2016

The price has reached the long-term support area, but we don’t have any bullish pattern so far. At the same time, there’s a possible “Inverted Hammer”. If this pattern confirms, bulls will probably try to deliver a correction.

There’s a bearish price movement on the four-hours chart. Moreover, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, so the price is likely going to continue falling down. If we see any bullish pattern later on, there’ll be an option to have a local correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11322

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: there isn't any reversal pattern
11/16/2016

The price has found a lodgement above the “Window and we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance. If we see any bullish pattern on this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction.

There’s a possible “Three Methods” pattern under the “Window”, which just has broken. Also, we’ve got a local “Tweezers”, so the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance level in the short term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11323

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & US PPI: unstoppable greenback still dominant
11/16/2016

Today will be published the US Producer Price Index at 13:30 GMT, which should remain unchanged, as analysts have been expecting. However, because of recent good data from retail sales, we may expect a surprise in the number and that could bring some bullish momentum to the US Dollar. The PPI saw a strong increase in September, rising 0.7%. If data comes below the expectations, it could place a temporary top on the USD.

Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H1 chart is showing a strong bearish structure developing, as the pair is looking to break the support zone of 1.0710 and if data comes better-than-expected, we can see a decline towards the 1.0559 in a short and mid term basis. However, in the “weaker” scenario, if EUR/USD does a rebound at the current stage, it can try a break above the 1.0804 level, in order to rally towards the 1.0850 level in a first degree.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11324

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Flag" led to massive decline
11/16/2016

The price is consolidating under a support at 1.0710. Also, we’ve got a resistance at 1.0821, so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0673 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0807 – 1.0821.

There’s a flat under the 34 Moving Average. Considering yesterday’s “V-Top” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.0710 – 1.0673 during the day. If bears be stopped here, an upward corrections will be on the table.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11325

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Breakaway Gap" acted as a resistance
11/16/2016

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place under a resistance at 1.2677. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction. In this case, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677 as a possible bullish target.

The last uptrend has been broken. The price faced a support at 1.2351 afterwards, which led to the current consolidation. So, bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.2399 – 1.2351 shortly. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11326