Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] ended
11/7/2016

The price couldn’t find a lodgement above 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, it seems like wave [ii] has formed a zigzag. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a bearish impulse in wave (i) soon.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, a bullish impulse in wave (c) finished last Friday. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave (i) during the day. However, this wave count requires a confirmation, which could be a break of 6/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11206

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" arrived
11/7/2016

The price couldn’t find a lodgement above the upper “Window”, so there’s a very rare moment, when we don’t have any reversal pattern at all. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support level. If we have a pullback from it, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward impulse. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a pullback from the closest resistance level, but there isn’t any bearish pattern as well. So, the current decline is likely going to be just a local correction.

There’s a “Hanging Man”, which has been confirmed by the last “Window”. The 34 Moving Average is likely going to act as a resistance. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to have an achievement of the next support level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11207

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"
11/7/2016

We’ve got a bearish “Advance Block”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this level arrives, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, we can have another test of the nearest “Window”.

There’s a new “Window”, which arrived this morning. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, it’s like that we’re going to see a flat in the short term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11208

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave
11/7/2016

EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave
Next sell targets - 1.5050 and 1.5000
EUR/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5400, 100-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous minor impulse wave (i) from the middle of October.

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.5050 (low of the previous impulse wave 1) - the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.5000.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11209

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9800
11/7/2016

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9800
Next buy target - 0.9900
NZD/CAD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.9800 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.9800 continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the support zone lying between the support level 0.9300, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from May.

NZD/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.9900 (target price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3).

More:https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11210

 

[riki143]

Gold: bulls are taking the situation under control
11/9/2016

On the daily chart of gold, there was a buying signal at $1,275. Quotes soared, allowing take profits and re-open longs from $1,306. If the "bulls" test the resistance at $1,360 and go back to the boundaries of the upward trading channel, the rally will continue towards $1,410 (target 161.8% in the "Crab" inverted pattern).

On the hourly chart of gold, targets 161.8% and 224% of the AB = CD show that the "bulls" can hold at $1,334 and $1,360. The nearest support is located at $1,320.

Recommendation: hold longs, having shifted TP at $1,360 and $1,410 levels.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11229

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen faced with Shark
11/9/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the pair fell sharply from the 103 level. As a result, the "Head and shoulders" pattern has been formed. Update of the current bar's low can lead to the further downfall towards 100.5. There is target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern. In contrast, if quotes go above 102.8, the "bulls" will continue to fight for the lead.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the expanding wedge, and AB = CD patterns have been formed. Rollback from the 88,6% of the CD red wave was a signal for sales. At present, the resistance should be sought in the 102,6-103 range. Support is located near the 100.75 mark.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11230

 

[riki143]

It is flush time for gold
11/9/2016

Gold surged as Donald Trump won the US presidential race. Investors scooched their money out of risky assets rushing into safe harbors. The precious metal jumped to $1,337 (the highest level since September) as exit polls showed a Trump lead.

Hedge funds started piling into the yellow metal ahead of the Election Day when Clinton’s email case resurfaced on October 28. Gold prices steered to the path of recovery having recouped their October losses. According to the Bloomberg survey, a Trump victory can send gold to $1,395 on the growing concerns over the Trump’s protectionist approach. He is going to “make America great again” by reshaping the US trade relationship with other world, to renegotiate NAFTA agreement and frustrate the trade with China. Distorted trade conditions should prop up the precious metal. Other commodities will suffer the most because of “Trumpian” antitrade sentiment.

Technically, the current outlook for the gold is “bullish”, although there could be some rollbacks to the nearest supports at $1288 (50-day MA), $1283 (200-day MA) and $1277 (100-day MA) on the 4H timeframe, as prices outperformed after it became clear who will be the next US president.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11231

 

[riki143]

Trump’s victory: what will happen to US dollar?
11/9/2016

Financial markets experienced a rough night on the news coming out of the United States. The Republican candidate Donald Trump unexpectedly won the key battleground states and was elected the US next president. What does it mean for the US dollar?

Firstly, the probability of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike at December meeting has declined. According to Bloomberg, it fell from 82% below 50%. Trump’s victory means that the previous projections of the US central bank might not reflect the economic and pollical picture. As a result, the Fed may decide to wait longer before raising rates. Lower expectations of this year’s rate hike are negative for the greenback. US dollar index tested levels below 96.00.

USD has managed to recover after the initial selloff. US dollar index returned to 97.25 as the currency had been oversold. Many investors and market players are currently at a loss trying to rethink their positions.

All in all, we see that the initial reaction of the market to the actual news that Trump had won wasn’t as great as some experts have feared. By the time it was announced that Trump has more than 270 out of 538 electoral votes (more than half), US dollar has already lost much and what came next, on the contrary, was a retracement to the upside. At this moment in time, new short positions on USD look risky.

If we look farther ahead into future, we may see a positive picture for the US currency. The thing is that as Trump will try to “make America great again” he will likely increase spending. Fiscal stimulus should be positive for the US economic growth and, consequently, help the US dollar. At the same time, some propositions of Trump-like building a wall between the US and Mexico, labeling China as a currency manipulator and deporting immigrants may keep financial markets stressed and affect the real economic activity.

Let’s have a look at the main currency pairs.

EUR/USD rose to 1.1300 before returning to 1.1100. We currently see a huge spike to the upside. Daily MAs (1.1115, 1.1125 and 1.1180) are once again above the current price. A break above these lines will give more powers to the bulls. Support is at 1.1000 (pre-rally point) ahead of 1.0985 and 1.0955.

USD/JPY has recovered more than 50% of today’s decline. There’s still a positive setup (50-MA went above 100-day MA) on the daily chart. At the same time, 104.15 and 104.70 should provide resistance. Levels below 102.80 will be more attractive for short positions. Note that Japanese authorities have declared readiness to intervene in currency markets with the safe-haven yen soaring.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11232

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Top" stopped bullish rally
11/9/2016

The downtrend has been broken. However, we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.1087. So, the market is likely going to continued falling down towards the next support at 1.1059 – 1.1038. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement towards a resistance at 1.1151 – 1.1204.

The price faced a support at 1.1087, so the pair is declining. The main target is a support near the uptrend. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls are likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.1139 -1.1204.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11233

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to test last low
11/9/2016

We’ve got a consolidation under the 55 Moving Average. So, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2330, which could be a departure point for another upward movement.

The price faced a resistance at 1.2556, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line be on the table, there’ll be an option to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2493.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11234

 

[riki143]

Trump’s victory: what will happen with interest rates, US economy and financial markets
11/9/2016

Donald Trump won the US presidential elections having avenged mass media for their numerous insults. The Republicans retained the power of both chambers in the US Parliament which means that it will be easier for Trump to implement his policies if we discard the fact that some of the future congressmen don’t support all his policies. Trump’s presidency heralds a new era for America. We suggest you dip into the future and try to predict what happen with the US economy, interest rates, and markets in Trump’s era.

US economy: Analysts from Danske Banks don’t expect any significant changes for the US economy in the short-run. According to their forecasts, the US economy will continue to grow at its moderate pace in the nearest future. As soon as more protectionism and tougher immigration policy become the reality, the US economic growth can slow down. The consequences of trade diversion and labor distortions should offset the positive effects of less regulation and fiscal stimulus.

Interest rate: in the course of the election campaign Trump criticized the Fed’s policy of low-interest rates. He was threatening to remove “dovish” Janet Yellen from the post of the Fed’s chair in 2018. If the fiscal stimulus will be introduced in 2017, the Fed might be willing to raise rates. Alternatively, if the negative effect of the distorted trade relations and tougher immigration policy dominates the effect of fiscal boost, the Fed will abstain from tightening. The probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming meeting in December decreased, but didn’t disappear. Financial markets can recover before the meeting having digested the US election outcome, while the state of the US economy shouldn’t go through big changes in such small period of time. By that time, Trump still won’t be proclaimed as the US president officially (so, he won’t get a chance to introduce new policies).

Markets: the immediate reaction of financial markets won’t extrapolate to the near-term future. Financial markets should return to their pre-election trends. In the long-run, markets will be scrutinizing further Trump’s actions as a president to get ideas on what will happen with trade and how it will influence the global economy.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11235

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
11/9/2016

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 102.00
USD/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 105.00, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the end of May. This resistance zone also earlier reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (2), as can be seen from the daily USD/JPY chart below.

USD/JPY Is likely to fall further in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) (which belongs to the primary downward impulse wave ? from the middle of July) toward the next sell target at the nearby support level 102.00.

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11236/USDJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Nov-09_1341_PM_(1_day).png

More:
[URL=https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11236]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11236[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD reversed from support area
11/9/2016

USD/CAD reversed from support area
Next buy target - 1.3600
USD/CAD continues to rise after the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 1.3250 (former resistance level and the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone which has been reversing the pair from April, as can be seen from the daily USD/CAD chart below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from the middle of October.

The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone continues the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from May. USD/CAD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.3600.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11237

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: huge candles
11/9/2016

There’re a support on the 55 Moving Average and a resistance on the upper “Window”. So, if the lower “Window” acts as a support, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Inverted Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, bears are likely going to test the last low once again.

We’ve got a “Doji”, which has been confirmed enough. However, the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average again. If we see a pullback from this line, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11238

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Piercing Line" stopped bears
11/9/2016

We’ve got a “Hanging Man” at the last high, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline soon. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, there’s an option to have another decline.

There’s a “Piercing Line”, so the price faced a resistance on the 13 Moving Average. Because of a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to deliver a local downward price movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11239

 

[riki143]

How Trump’s presidency can affect energy market
11/9/2016

Throughout the presidential race Donald Trump was saying that he would allow unfettered production of oil, coal and natural gas, increase gas and oil drilling in the Atlantic Ocean and on federal lands. Also, he was complaining that Obama administration stifled energy producing companies with numerous regulations and restrictions. He vowed to help energy companies located in Colorado, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia (key battlegrounds in the election campaign) to boost their production, as he becomes a president.

Unlike Mr. Trump, Hillary Clinton advocated for the development of renewable energy and threatened to put coal miners and coal companies out of business. In addition, she promised to ban oil drilling in the Atlantic Ocean (perhaps, all these commitments played a low-down trick with Democratic nominee in the election; she lost her votes in all aforementioned states). President Obama, the present leader of Democrats, was not really friendly to the oil and gas industry, increasing regulations on the industry. Despite these severities in relation to energy companies, oil and gas production have risen in the course of Obama’s presidency mainly because it coincided with the shale oil revolution.

Under Trump’s rule, with his pro-fossil fuel, pro-pipeline policies and protectionist views, the US energy output should increase even further. This in part explains why oil prices slumped to $45.60 overnight (on the anticipation of the growing US oil supply in the future). At the present moment, Brent oil futures are trading below the $46.00 level. Traders and investors are waiting for the Energy Information Administration report on the US oil inventories which is going to be released later today.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11240

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "triangle" going to end
11/9/2016

The main wave count has been changed. Wave (X) is likely taking form of a triangle. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower side of this pattern. If a pullback happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have bullish wave (Y) of [/B].

As we can see on the four-hours chart, there’s a zigzag in wave D. So, it seems like bearish wave [a] is going to end soon. In this case, we could have wave of E afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11241

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD after Trump's victory: Are the bears in EUR strengthening for mid-term?
11/10/2016

On an unexpected move, because of recent polls pre-elections, the Republican nominee, and businessman Donald Trump became the new United States president, catching up the votes from several “battleground” states, where Florida played a key role to define the race towards the White House. As results kept coming during early Wednesday’s session, US dollar plummeted and safe haven’s assets were boosted by a huge demand, because Trump was leading and gaining a big ground across the USA. However, markets managed to stabilize their structures and most of the currencies were back to their pre-election price action.

According to our technical overview for EUR/USD at H4 chart, the pair is back below the 200 SMA, after it reached the 1.1280 level, but during American session, plunged to consolidate below the 1.10 handle. If the pair does a breakout below the 1.0890 level, then it can test the 1.0856 level, only if the US dollar increases during next hours. By another hand, as the Euro gets some boost, it can go towards the 1.10190 level, as long as it manages to consolidate the 1.0964 level.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11242

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi's future is in hands of the support
11/10/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, the purple triangle has been formed. Breakout of the upper boundary at 0.7405 will give buyers hope for a recovery of the "bullish" trend. In contrast, a successful breakout of the diagonal support near 0.7173 will allow the pair to go out from the upward trading channel and create prerequisites for the development of corrective movement.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, key support is located near the 0.7174 mark. If the "bears" manage to break it out, the quotes will return to the boundaries of the downward trading channel. This will signal about the restoration of short-term "bear" trend. In contrast, the rebound will lead to the continuation of the rally.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11243