Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the trades returned to the positive region
10/3/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1220; resistance – 1.1240/50

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1200; SL — 1.1220; TP1 — 1.1170; TP2 – 1.1130.

2. Buy — 1.1240; SL — 1.1220; TP1 — 1.1300; TP2 – 1.1330.

Reason: a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but Ichimoku Cloud have a bearish character; strong support of SSB; the prices are above the SSB.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10714

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Bulls still active
10/3/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7640; resistance – 0.7660/70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7640/50; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750.

Reason: a correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a strong support of the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10715

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: trading in the Cloud
10/3/2016

Technical levels: support – 101.00/20; resistance – 101.70, 102.10.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 101.20; SL — 101.00; TP1 — 101.70; TP2 — 102.10.

2. Sell — 100.90; SL — 101.10; TP1 — 100.10; TP2 — 90.60.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, SSB is falling down; the prices are in the Cloud, but there is a golden cross of Tenkan and Kijun.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10716

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, October 3rd
10/3/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 2 652 ? + 4 021 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1279; 1.1296; 1.1334; 1.1367
Closest support levels 1.1243; 1.1216; 1.1181; 1.1140
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1243, with target points at 1.1216 and 1.1181
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1279 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1296 and 1.1334

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 688 ? + 679 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3042; 1.3063; 1.3091; 1.3125
Closest support levels 1.2870; 1.2830; 1.2787; 1.2742
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2870, with target points at 1.2830 and 1.2787
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3042 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3063 and 1.3091

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 3 132 ? + 1 805 ?
Closest resistance levels 101.46; 101.66; 101.92; 102.26
Closest support levels 101.10; 100.89; 100.47; 100.15
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.46, with the target points at 101.66 and 101.92
Alternative scenario Moving below 101.46 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.66 and 101.92

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 429 ? + 382 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3132; 1.3160; 1.3205; 1.3268
Closest support levels 1.3087; 1.3062; 1.3021; 1.2963
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3132, with the target points at 1.3160 and 1.3205
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3087 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3062 and 1.3021

EUR JPY GBP CAD USD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10720

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance zone
10/3/2016

USD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.3000
USD/CAD has been under strong bearish pressure lately – following the earlier sharp downward reversal from the powerful resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.3250 and 1.3150 (which has been reversing this currency pair from April, as can be seen from the daily USD/CAD chart below). This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from April.

USD/CAD is expected to fall down further in the active primary impulse wave ? toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.3000 (low of the previous minor correction 4).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10722

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF reversed from support area
10/3/2016

CAD/CHF reversed from support area
Next buy target - 0.7480
CAD/CHF recently corrected up sharply from the support area lying between the pivotal support level 1.7350 (which reversed the previous waves (iii) and (b)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the middle of February. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – thereby marking the end of the previous ABC correction (2).

CAD/CHF is expected to rise further in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7480.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10723

 

[riki143]

Salvation plans for Deutsche Bank
10/3/2016

Shades lengthen over the Deutsche Bank as it struggles to settle the US Department of Justice’s probe into alleged mis-selling of mortgage securities. The fine threatens to undermine investor and client confidence in the biggest German lender. Here comes a main question how to restore the client trust and wriggle out of this difficulty.

Many analysts suggest several scenarios of what the DB should do to tackle its problems.

The optimists still hope that DB will manage to settle the case with $3bn-5bn. As it was stated earlier the Bank expected this turn of event (nobody dodges from the sword of justice) and set off some money (€5.5bn) to cover the cost of litigation. If the US Department of Justice is condescending, the Bank will be salvaged. Its share prices will regain and rise from its three-decades lows; the client confidence will be shored up, and Deutsche will save its reputation of a big lender. The crisis will be over.

In contrast, if the DoJ demands more than 5bn settlement, the DB will have to tighten its belt and consider other options to stay afloat. The first one that comes to mind is to deleverage the balance sheet by selling Postbank, but it is difficult to realize, because of a lack of buyers and poor market conditions. This situation with the DB may force large asset managers and corporate treasurers to jump from the train running to abyss. Sharp cuts of client revenue will make rating agencies to downgrade the bank (even more clients will be willing to run away, if it happens).

As all DB’s client disappear, the everybody’s eyes will go to the Angela Merkel’s government. With less than a year away from a general election and placed under fire of the decision to allow vast numbers of immigrants to flow into the country, we doubt that Ms. Merkel will come to the rescue. It could be a political suicide for chancellor herself and for her colleagues. Perhaps, the only thing the government could do in this situation it is to engineer a merger of DB with Commerzbank. Although this measure is considered to be of a last resort due to rising discontent among bank officials, it could save Deutsche Bank without recourse to the state aid.

In this article, we painted a rather gloomy picture of the DB’s present and future. But maybe it is in fact not that bad as it seems to be. A few analysts believe that all these Deutsche’s problems might be exaggerated by the banks’ ?1 enemy – speculators. According to the DB’s Chief Executive Officer John Cryan, the bank’s balance sheet is healthier than at any point in the past two decades. The bank has enough liquidity to stay afloat. Moreover, even if there is a shortage of available money on hand, Deutsche can always access significant additional liquidity from the ECB. So, is investors’ rush to leave the sinking ship a bit preliminary? We will wait for more news/decisions on this matter to come up with a clear answer to this question.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10724

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to break local high
10/3/2016

There’s a “Hammer” at the local low, which has been strongly confirmed. So, the price is likely going to get a support on the nearest Moving Averages. If a pullback from this lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a support by 34 & 89 Moving Averages. Considering the huge shadow of Friday’s candle, bulls are likely going to reach the nearest resistance line.

We’ve got an “Engulfing” at the last low. Meanwhile, the 21 Moving Average has acted as a support, so we’ve got a pullback from this line. Under this circumstances, the market is likely going to test Friday’s high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10725

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Engulfing" arrived
10/3/2016

There’s a support by the nearest Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the closest support line in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” pattern, which has been strongly confirmed, so bulls will have a chance to deliver a new local high.

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “High Wave” patterns on the one-hour chart. However, there’s a bearish “Engulfing” pattern, which points to a possibility to see a local downward correction. In this case bears will probably try to break the nearest Moving Averages soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10726

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY near-term forecasts
10/3/2016

Since June the market is trying to break the resistance line at 100 level. There were at least four attempts to do so, but all in vain. It seems that this shield is unpierceable.

What’s more surprising is that all these failures to break the support happened on the back of recent disappointments regarding the outcome of long-awaited central bank meetings, where the Fed’s indecision to hike the interest rates or BoJ’s inventive monetary policy pressured the USD/JPY downwards. Who knows, maybe the imminent US elections will start the ball rolling. Meanwhile, we hardly can expect any changes from the USD/JPY pair, at least, during further two weeks. USD/JPY will continue consolidating, then, there should be a decisive change of the trend.

It’s more than likely that the pair will rise in near-term. From recent data releases we can conclude that Japan’s economy doesn’t perform really well. Consumer spending numbers we had a chance to observe declined, while inflation indicators remained in negative territory. The Tankan indices published on Sunday, did not show us any improvements in manufacturing sector. On contrary, the US statistics brings us good news: consumer confidence came out at the highest since 2007, the production indices have increase since summer, final GDP was slightly better than it had been expected.

For any further confirmation of our forecast, let’s look at the bets of some big stakeholders.

Société Générale is in line with our bullish expectation; it is long USD/JPY from 100.30. The bank explains its position by the BoJ’s decision to target 10-year JGB yields at about zero, adding the yield curve control to its present Quantitative and Qualitative easing.

Morgan Stanley as its colleagues doesn’t expect the yen to rise in the nearest future. According to its recent forecast, the steady 100 and 102.50 levels will be key to see which way USD/JPY decides to go further.

Goldman Sacks gives us more clues on the further USD/JPY movement. It believes that USD/JPY may reach 108, 110 and 115 marks in 3-, 60- and 12-months, respectively. It finds the BoJ’s decision to shift to yield targeting is clear-sighted; the market is willing to punish the BoJ’s incrementalism; any slack, any sign that the BoJ has given up on its easing will result in USD/JPY move below 100, threatening to bring to naught all progress under Kuroda’s rule.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10727

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave E going to move on
10/3/2016

There’s wave (Y), which is taking form of a triangle. It’s likely that wave E is going to develop a double zigzag. If we see a pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible zigzag in wave [y] of E. Therefore, wave (b) is likely going to end soon. If a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (c) of [y].

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10728

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: beware of an unexpected trigger
10/3/2016

As we already know, the Bank of Japan decided not to adopt additional easing at its last policy meeting. It managed to dodge from its proverbial interest rate cuts this time. Citi believes that BoJ by not doing so passed the policy baton to the Ministry of Finance. If USD/JPY breaks 100, the MoF will have to intervene.

Of course, the Japanese government will try to avoid doing so ahead of the US presidential elections striving not to deteriorate the US-Japan relations. But December visit by Russian President V. Putin and expected improvement in Japan-Russian relations (dispute over Kuril Islands is a main hurdle that weighted on the relations between two countries) make Shinzo Abe fearless. If two leaders manage to negotiate this issue, it may result in the Yen’s appreciation.

A fall of the pair to 95 will result in the increase of the demand for hedging the past foreign investments by Japanese investors, this, in turn, will cause a further USD/JPY drop. The monetary authorities will unlikely accept such JPY strengthening. Therefore, they will have to intervene.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10729

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP & UK Construction PMI: New historical lows across the board?
10/4/2016

Headlines from UK PM Theresa May during the weekend added pressure on the Sterling and Monday's session helped to push the pair to test post-Brexit lows, as the UK PM spoke about timing on when the Brexit process will start in the country. Today at 08:30 GMT will be published the Construction PMI in the United Kingdom and analysts are waiting for a slight decline from 49.2 to 49.0 in the September's reading.

Our technical analysis for EUR/GBP at H4 chart is very bullish, added to the fact that EUR is strengthening across the board and now it's testing the resistance level of 0.8740, thanks, of course, to the Sterling's weakness. If the pair manages to break the resistance level of 0.8740 (a weaker than expected number), we can see a rally towards the 0.8812 level. However, if EUR/GBP does a pullback at the current stage, then it could test the 0.8661 level, which is close to the 50 SMA.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10730

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: franc is ready to leave the triangle
10/4/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, «bulls» are testing resistance at 0,974-0,975. If they succeed, it will allow them to prepare an attack for the upper boundary of a descending triangle. Breakout of the diagonal resistance will open the way to the target of the "Shark" pattern at 88.6%. It is located near the 0.9865 mark.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, successful test of the upper boundary of the descending trade channel should be confirmed by the resistance breakout at 0,975 (61.8% Fibonacci of XA wave). If the "bulls" take control of the situation, they will fulfull the target of the "Shark" inverted pattern at 113% (near the 0.984 mark).

Recommendation: BUY 0,975 SL 0,9695 TP1 0,984 TP2 0,9865.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10731

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: bears lost the lead
10/4/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, the quotes didn't fall below the support line at 0,7225. The realization of the "Head and shoulders" and "Shark" patterns has been postponed. A successful test of the peak of the right shoulder will lead to the restoration of the upward trend.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, to move further the "bulls" will have to activate the Shark pattern. For this to happen, they will need to test a resistance line at 0.736 (23.6% Fibonacci of the last upward wave). Once it is tested successfully, the kiwi might head to the upper boundary of the rising trade channel.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10732

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Triple Top" stopped bulls
10/4/2016

The price is moving up and down under the downtrend line. In this case, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1181 – 1.1165 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

The last consolidation was finally ended up by yesterday’s bearish rally. So, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.1181 – 1.1168 during the day. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.1196 – 1.1212.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10734

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to reach support
10/4/2016

Yesterday a “Breakaway Gap” was formed, so the price faced a support at 1.2849, which led to a local consolidation. Therefore, it’s likely that the market is going to get a resistance at 1.2883 – 1.2911 in the short term. However, bears are probably going to break the last low afterwards.

The price found a support at 1.2839, so we’ve got a local flat. There’s a possible “Double Bottom” pattern, which could be a departure point for an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2932 – 1.2951. At the same time, if bulls be stopped here, then there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10736

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, October 4th
10/4/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 2 618 ? + 26 125 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1257; 1.1275; 1.1320; 1.1359
Closest support levels 1.1180; 1.1140; 1.1095; 1.1047
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1180, with target points at 1.1140 and 1.1095
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1257 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1275 and 1.1320

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 562 ? + 1 112 ?
Closest resistance levels 102.24; 102.66; 103.14; 103.65
Closest support levels 101.28; 101.08; 100.63; 100.29
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.24, with the target points at 102.66 and 103.14
Alternative scenario Moving below 101.28 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.08 and 100.63

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10738

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the prices are on the Cloud again
10/4/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7650; resistance – 0.7690.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7650; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750.

Reason: a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising SSA; a strong support of the Cloud and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10739

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: breaking out SSB
10/4/2016

Technical levels: support – 101.00/20; resistance – 102.50/70

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 102.60; SL — 102.80; TP1 — 101.90; TP2 — 101.50.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud; the prices are break trough SSB; a golden cross of rising Tenkan and Kijun, but the strong resistance near 102.50/70

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10740