Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: price wallow in consolidation
9/30/2016

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. It’s likely that the price is going to reach a support at 1.1196 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1256.

The price is moving up and down between the levels 1.1247 – 1.1196. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.1196 – 1.1190 during the day. However, if sellers be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve the closest resistance at 1.1256 – 1.1258.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10694

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, September 30th
9/30/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 40 882 ↑ + 48 841 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.1256; 1.1281; 1.1300; 1.1328
Closest support levels 1.1202; 1.1171; 1.1133; 1.1089
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1202, with target points at 1.1171 and 1.1133
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1256 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1281 and 1.1300

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 201 ↑ + 1 037 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.2990; 1.3027; 1.3045; 1.3067
Closest support levels 1.2967; 1.2941; 1.2920; 1.2892
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2967, with target points at 1.2941 and 1.2920
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2990 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3027 and 1.3045

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 1 626 ↑ + 2 175 ↑
Closest resistance levels 101.13; 101.31; 101.54; 101.85
Closest support levels 100.75; 100.56; 100.23; 99.96
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.13, with the target points at 101.31 and 101.54
Alternative scenario Moving below 100.75 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.56 and 100.23

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 827 ↑ + 57 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3165; 1.3191; 1.3231; 1.3287
Closest support levels 1.3116; 1.3098; 1.3067; 1.3021
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3165, with the target points at 1.3191 and 1.3231
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3116 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3098 and 1.3067

EUR JPY GBP CAD USD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10695

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to test uptrend line
9/30/2016

The price faced a resistance at 1.3056, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support by the uptrend line. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance by the 34 Moving Average.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2935 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.3010.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10696

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016

What do the present AUD/USD price patterns tell us, and what next week will bring us?

The Australian dollar once again tried to challenge key resistance line at 0.77 this week, but failed to withstand its US counterpart. In the upcoming week we don’t expect any considerable moves from Aussie. We would suggest opting for the sidelines, as the news calendar doesn’t foresee any significant events that could underpin the AUD rise/downfall the next week. Perhaps, only the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting will increase the degree of volatility.

According to Latest Reuters poll of 57 economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia will unlikely change its interest rate at Tuesday meeting remaining concerned about low inflation and gradual AUD appreciation. But, fortunately, the strong housing market keeps Australian growth afloat. The August data form Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a significant rise in number of the building approvals, we expect the confirmation of this trend in its next release coming next week. In addition, economic growth has held up well, commodity prices experienced an upsurge. Taking into consideration all these factors, the RBA will unlikely introduce any easing measures this time.

Also, we would encourage you to keep an eye on the trade balance data coming on Thursday next week. Last release didn’t show big distortions; we hope that this time there won’t be any considerable changes as well. The smooth movement of the AUD/USD can be disturbed by the US Non-Farm Employment Change release. This data provides an early outlook of the American employment growth, which usually doesn’t deviate from the official government data.

If there are any changes in the pair movement next week, they are expected to be insignificant. A break of the resistance line at 0.7710 will pave the way for the further northward movement up to the 0.7725 – 0.7733 zone (resistance line). Alternatively, a retreat from the level of 0.7560 will throw the doors open for the test of the next support line at 0.7475. But the technical picture doesn’t tell us that downward trend is looming – there are no clear-cut bearish trade signals.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10697

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears broken the "Window"
9/30/2016

There’s a bearish price movement, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, a “Harami” and a “Doji”, which all have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a bearish “Engulfing”, which has a confirmation, so the price is going to test the 34 Moving Average soon.

We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern on the nearest Moving Average line. Moreover, the price has broken the “Window”, so bears are likely going to move on in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10698

 

[riki143]

EUR/CAD reversed from resistance level 1.4900
9/30/2016

EUR/CAD reversed from resistance level 1.4900
Next sell target - 1.4600
EUR/CAD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 1.4900 (which is the lower boundary of the strong resistance zone which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from March, as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below). The upper border of the aforementioned resistance zone stands at the round resistance level 1.5000. This resistance area was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.

EUR/CAD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4600 (low of the previous minor correction (ii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10699

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD reversed from resistance area
9/30/2016

EUR/NZD reversed from resistance area
Next sell target - 1.5200
EUR/NZD recently reversed down from the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.5500 (which earlier reversed pervious waves (iv), (a) and 2, as can be seen below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the pervious sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of July.

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance area started the active minor impulse wave 3. EUR/NZD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5200 (which reversed the (b)-wave of the pervious ABC correction 2).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10700

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: pullback from "Window" led to massive decline
9/30/2016

We’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Shooting Star” pattern, so the price is likely going to get a support on the 13 Moving Average line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, a bullish “Harami” has been confirmed, so bulls are going to test the 21 Moving Average.

The upper “Window” has acted as a resistance, which led to the current decline. However, considering the last “Hammer” pattern, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10701

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016

This week Loonie grew in value due to the Iranian and Saudi decision to curb their insatiable appetites for profits. Two great oil producers have finally found the common ground and agreed for an output cap. But exhilaration ended at the end of the week. Oil prices are gradually returning to their annual trends and the USD/CAD is recovering from its recent downfall. Although we should give proper respect to the Canadian steadfast tin soldier which managed to withstand even the positive news flow from the US (US Department of labor reported that the number of initial application for unemployment benefits for this week rose by 3000 from the previous week which is much less than it was expected by analysts; the US GDP growth accelerated and reached 1,4 %; Yellen still hints at the probability of rate’s hike; US consumer confidence data continue to impress the markets with excellent readings).

Nevertheless, we can’t be a hundred percent certain that the Loonie’s rally will last forever; it will finally depreciate in relation to its US counterpart. Numerous domestic problems and inevitable fall in oil prices will cause this downfall. Governor of the Bank of Canada Poloz in his speech on Monday stated that the Canada’s potential economic growth powered by the high birth rates is now ending. The job market in Canada is fading with rising amount of elderly. This will deter the BOC from any rate hikes in the nearest future to keep inflation in check. According to Poloz, the neutral interest rate is exactly what Canada needs right now. Poloz has also pointed at the fact that the impact of lower oil prices may influence Canadian economy significantly.

Next week will bring us many data releases offering a seasonal outlook of Canadian economy – trade balance, building permits, unemployment rate, employment change, purchasing managers’ Index. Add to this a bunch of releases coming from the United States, and the volatility bomb will explode. Once we get acquainted with all these reports, we will be able to assess the true potential for the economic growth of Canada and define in which direction the Loonie will proceed.

If we take a look at the daily chart, we will see that there was a long period of consolidation and trading sidelines. The USD/CAD was trading within the 1.33 – 1.28 levels for many days. The breakout of the resistance line at 1.327 is unlikely possible this week; this makes us to plot a lower resistance line at 1.3212. If American statistics doesn’t give us positive result, we expect the trend go down to the support line at 1.304. If ‘bears’ manage to take situation under control, the downward trend might reach the 1,2890 mark.

More:
[https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10702

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver wave [y] of E
9/30/2016

There’s wave E of (Y), which is taking form of a double zigzag. It’s likely that wave [x] of E is going to end soon. So, if we see a pullback from 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), bulls are likely going to reach 6/8 MM Level in the short term.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible zigzag in wave [x]. Therefore, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens, then bulls are likely going to deliver wave [y] of E, which could take a form of a zigzag like it was in wave [w].

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10703

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016

In line with our expectations decline of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged in September was limited. US dollar index consolidated above 95.00 and even rose to 95.70 by the week’s end.

US election race continues. According to an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll, 52% of likely voters said that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton “won" the first presidential debate, while 21% thought that the Republican Donald Trump was the winner. Clinton is perceived to be good for stocks and bearish for the greenback, while Trump, on the contrary, is associated with unpredictable policy steps, which should result in stronger USD. All in all, Trump is currently performing better than many political observers expected, so the overall uncertainty should continue.

As for American monetary policy, traders aren’t sure what will happen as well. Look how divided the market is now on the possibility of US rate hike in December: it’s almost 50-50 chance, according to CME data. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen said higher rate will likely be appropriate this year, but it’s clear that the regulator’s decision will depend on the incoming economic data.

Economic figures from the US in the past week were mainly better-than-expected: Q2 GDP growth was revised up from 1.1% to 1.4% and durable goods orders didn’t decline in August as strongly as it was expected.

Next week America will release ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, ADP non-farm employment change on Wednesday and unemployment claims on Thursday. On Friday expect increased volatility as the US will publish NFP (nonfarm payrolls) and other labor market figures. Also on Friday we’ll here from a bunch of Fed speakers – Fisher, Mester, George and Brainard. In addition, there will be more political news: Vice presidential debate will take place on Tuesday.

Resistance for USD index is at 96.25 (late August and September highs). Support is at 95.00 (support line since May).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10704

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016

The main source of negative impact on the euro this week were the worries about the future of Deutsche Bank. US Justice Department is demanding the bank to pay $14 billion fine to settle civil claims related to its dealings in mortgage-backed securities. There are reports that hedge funds start to withdrew money from Deutsche. It seems that German government is reluctant to provide financial help for the institution. The problems of the bank reignited fears about the condition of the European banking sector. Another German bank – Commerzbank – had unveiled plans to cut up to 10 000 jobs and suspend dividends for the first time. These concerns will keep affecting the euro.

Economic data from the euro area were mixed. German Ifo business climate index exceeded expectations and the region’s inflation rate increased from 0.2% to 0.4% in September, but the price growth doesn’t look very convincing with core inflation stagnating at 0.8% and unemployment stuck above 10%. The region’s economic calendar for the next week looks rather empty: German banks will have a holiday on Monday, European countries will release final manufacturing and services PMIs during the week and the ECB will publish accounts of its latest meeting on Thursday. All these events are of medium importance, so the Deutsche Bank saga and US nonfarm payrolls will be the main market movers.

EUR/USD once again failed to settle above the declining 100-week MA, which currently lies in 1.1225 area. Resistance is at 1.1225 and 1.1280 ahead of 1.1360 and 1.1400. At the same time, 50-day MA went above 100-week MA on the daily chart – a sign that buyers are willing to fight, so we don’t expect any strong selloff of the euro. Support is at 1.1160 (200-day MA), 1.1100 (support line from November 2015). Decline below this point will open the way down to 1.1070 and 1.1010.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10705

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016

GBP/USD remained within the range of the previous week between 1.3055 and 1.2915. The UK’s large current account deficit leaves the currency highly dependent on foreign exchange inflows. The pound is affected by Brexit woes as well as subdued investor sentiment related to concerns over the health of Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank.

So far the economic figures from UK haven’t been bad. On the contrary, Q2 GDP growth was revised up from 0.6% to 0.7%. Next week Britain will release manufacturing, construction and services PMIs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and manufacturing production on Friday. US labor market figures on Friday will also add to the pair’s volatility.

The pair’s consolidating at the lower edge of its 3-month range. The area corresponds to the multiyear minimums of the British currency, so it will take strong drivers to pull the pair significantly lower. Still, there’s scope for more decrease to 1.2865 (August low) and 1.2790 (post-Brexit low) on the close below 1.2900. We stick to the view that it will be hard for the sterling to show any significant recovery. The pound looks weaker than other currencies against the greenback. Resistance is at 1.3000, 1.3115 and 1.3180/1.3200.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10706

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016

USD/JPY rose from 100.00 to 102.00, but remains limited on the upside by 2016 resistance line. Us dollar was driven higher against yen as Hillary Clinton’s victory at the first US presidential debate and OPEC deal to cut oil production initially improved the market’s risk sentiment. Then, however, demand for the yen as a safe haven increased once again on the back of problems with Deutsche Bank and the doubts that oil exporters will really reduce output.

Inflation figures released in Japan came below forecasts. Core consumer prices contracted by 0.5%. Normally such figures would make investors think that the Bank of Japan will intensify its monetary easing. However, there’s speculation that the regulator has reached a limit in stimulus and is no longer able to make the yen decline. Last week the Bank of Japan said that it would target 10-year bond yield at levels around 0%, but this week the market pushed the yield to -0.09%. In order to stick to its target, the BOJ would have to reduce its massive bond purchase program. Such reduction would be interpreted as a sign that the regulator won’t ease policy further, so the yen will strengthen. For now, central bank officials backed away saying that bond yield target isn’t strict and there’s no need to cut stimulus. Still, the doubts about the regulator’s efficiency represent a negative factor for USD/JPY.

Next week Japan will publish Tankan manufacturing & services PMIs on Monday. The pair will be driven by the market’s sentiment and US labor market data. Technical levels for the pair remain pretty much the same – 102.00, 103.30 and 104.00 as resistance and 100.00 and 99.00 as support. Despite the recent gains of the pair, USD/JPY will likely aim at lower levels testing support.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10707

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK Manufacturing PMI: Sterling still looking for a catalyst
10/3/2016

We start a busy week today with the UK manufacturing PMI at 08:30 GMT, where the analysts are expecting a decline from 53.3 to 52.1. September's release was positive, with an improvement to 53.3 from 48.3, while the August's event was slightly bearish, marking 48.2. However, overall readings for this indicator have been bullish and we could expect a slight bullish number for October.

Our technical analysis for GBP/USD at H1 chart is showing a bearish development, as the pair have been respecting the bearish trend line plotted from the September 22nd session's highs and eventually, a weaker-than-expected reading can drive us to test the support level of 1.2921, which was tested during September 26th session. However, if a bullish data comes today, a breakout above the 1.3012 level is highly possible and it could reach the 1.3050 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10708

 

[riki143]

Gold: bears are not ready for attack
10/3/2016

On the daily chart of gold, as it was expected, the bears once again tested the lower bound of the consolidation area at $1305-1365 per ounce. If the "bears" in the coming days fail to break through support at $ 1307 (the lower bound of the upward trading channel + the lower limit of the ledge in the "Spike and ledge" pattern), we may expect the next rebound.

On the hourly chart of gold, bears' failure to update the quotes at theit recent lows at $1313 will tell us about their weakness. Successful test of the correction maximum at 2, followed by the test of the resistance line at $1320 will increase the risks of activation of the AB = CD and "Shark" patterns with targets at $1330 and $1339.

Recommendation: BUY 1320 SL 1314,5 TP1 1330 TP2 1339.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10709

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls showed some slack
10/3/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, "bulls" failed to test the resistance line at 1,304, this resulted in a sell-out of the pound.The risks of the quotes pulling down to 1,28-1,285 area have increased. There are targets of the AB = CD and "Shark" patterns.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the breakout of support at 1,291, or rebound from the diagonal resistance at 1.2985 will create the prerequisites for the further slide of the quotes down to 1.2825.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,291 SL 1,2965 TP1 1,2825 TP2 1,28

SELL 1,2965 SL 1,3020 TP1 1,2865 TP2 1,28.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10710

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" points to another upward movement
10/3/2016

The price is moving up and down on the four-hours chart. Bears faced a support at 1.1165, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance near the downtrend line. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the 89 Moving Average.

There’s a “Pennant” pattern, so the price is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.1269 – 1.1278 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to catch the nearest support at 1.1212.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10711

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Breakaway Gap" arrived
10/3/2016

The price faced a resistance at 1.3022 last week, which led to form “Breakaway Gap” this morning. However, there’s a local bullish “V-Bottom” pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.2979 – 1.2995. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see a bearish price movement in the direction of the next support at 1.2913.

We’ve got a local “Double Bottom”, so the market is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average in the short term. At the same time, if a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to deliver another decline towards a support at 1.2893.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10712

 

[riki143]

Morning Forex outlook
10/3/2016

Today, we will keep our eyes wide open not to miss the series of manufacturing releases from the Eurozone (no great changes are expected) and from the North American continent. A pinnacle event of the day is the FPC Meeting Minutes following the manufacturing release from the UK (they are expected to be rather promising to the British pound after the recent depreciation).

GBP is perhaps a main rotator of the forex money machine on Monday morning. There was news that UK prime-minister T. May will trigger Article 50 by the end of March next year. Once she does so, the negotiation process for UK exit from the EU will start. Pound fell from the late US trading levels loosing 56 pips, but then it managed to recoup and reach the 1.293 mark. We will we waiting for manufacturing release later on this Monday and the thorough records and statements from the UK Financial Policy Committee. Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 52.1 in September which would indicate a relevant industry expansion of the UK economy.

AUD didn’t experience any changes on the session. Sunday report from Australian Industry Group indicates Manufacturing Index increased by 2.9 points in September from August 46.9 due to vigorous activity in the food& beverages sub-sector which managed to recover after August contraction. Comments from the leading manufacturers in September shows us a steady improvement in Australian demand and exports in many sectors after August dip. We don’t expect any adjustments of the interest rate at the RBA’s meeting scheduled for this Tuesday. The series of further rate cuts are expected in 2017.

JPY has been more active on last session. We may track a steady upsurge of the USD/JPY currency pair. Now it continues to oscillate around the 101 level, ticking higher to 101.6 and rolling back to 101.5 – 101.3 marks. Sunday Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing releases hardly made any differences to the yen moves. Indexes didn’t show us great changes.

September Over the weekend we also got official China PMIs for September. And here we observe a slight miss for the manufacturing PMI in comparison with the previous month. In general, Chinese economy performs well. According to the estimates of Australian and New Zealand Banking Group, China’s GDP will expand by 6.7% in the third quarter.

EUR JPY AUD GBP

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10713