Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears don't hurry to consolidate their gains
9/26/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, after the 88.6% target in the Bat pattern had been reached, there was a rebound. At the present time, there is a consolidation in the range of 100,55-101,35 (61,8-78,6% Fibonacci from the XA wave). If the yen goes beyond this limits, it will determine the direction of further movement.

On the USD/ JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the descending short-term channel. The tendency is still "bearish". If the sellers return to the support at 100.55 level and test it successfully, the risks of attaking the 98 level will increase.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10612

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: under the SSB resistance
9/26/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1220, 1.1190; resistance – 1.1240.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1220; SL — 1.1200; TP1 — 1.1270; TP2 – 1.1300.

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10614

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & Yellen's Speech: Where are the Euro's bulls?
9/28/2016

Today at 14:00 GMT will speak the Fed's Chairwoman Janet Yellen, which is one of two speeches that she'll hold during this week. Yellen is expected to talk about interest rates' strategy by the central bank and it can bring some volatility to the markets in today's early American session. It's worth noting that the markets are still digesting the US presidential debate, but the effect should last for the short-term only (this week at least).

Our technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a solid support at the 1.1196 level, where the bulls are trying to push higher in order to validate the dynamic bottom offered by the 200 SMA. If that happens and Yellen remains with her rhetoric, then it could test the resistance level of 1.1262 once again, while a slightly hawkish's speech can produce a lower breakout below the 1.1196 level, with the nearest target placed at the 1.1147 zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10650

 

[riki143]

Deutsche Bank may drown European markets
9/28/2016

Deutsche Bank shares lost more than 7.5% to €10.55 on Monday reaching their lowest level since 1983.

The bank’s senior executives hurried to reassure investors it has enough money to cover a multibillion-dollar fine for alleged mis-selling of the bonds in the period before the 2008 crisis. Never the less, Deutsche Bank will unlikely cope with mounting financial problems without government support. Since the beginning of this year the bank's shares fell by more than 50%. Its bonds have dropped as well. Deutsche Bank risks facing a shortage of capital.

From early 2016 Deutsche Bank was struggling to cuts costs and restore profitability, but as legal challenges have mounted and the fine has appeared on the table, investors’ sentiment has knocked out. Before the decade of crisis (the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis), Deutsche could have written out this ill-fated cheque with a nonchalant smug and not to lose the trust of its clients, but now nobody is sure where it can get the money from.

If the German Government doesn’t meddle in with its rescue, a huge banking crisis will burst out. That, in turn, will cripple the European largest economy, blow the Italian banking system, and French and Spanish banks will be next. Add to this the impact of Brexit, and you will get a full house. With this scenario, it is not surprising that the markets are facing the tremendous decline in the DB’s share price.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10651

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the pound will change the picture considerably
9/28/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, there are prerequisites for breaking the "bearish" trend. Quotes lie in the vicinity of the upper boundary of the descending trade channel. A successful attack of the diagonal resistance line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last bearish wave will activate a "Shark" reversal pattern. Its 88.6% target corresponds to the 1,325 mark.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the breakout of the 1,304 resistance level will be a good signal of the "bull" attack. If the pound manages to consolidate above 1.3116, the quotes might continue to rise towards the 1,325 level.

Recommendation: BUY 1,304 SL 1,2985 TP1 1,3115 TP2 1,318 TP3 1,325

GBP

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10652

 

[riki143]

Gold: bears are strengthening their positions
9/28/2016

On the daily chart of gold, quotes for the third time in this month returned to the lower boundary of the consolidation (to the range of $1315-1365). This time, it coincides with the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. This increases the risks of the collapse in prices, if bears' attack is successful.

On the hourly chart of gold, there is an expanding wedge pattern. Rise of quotes to 23.8% (1329), 38.2% (1331.6), 50% (1,333.6) and 61.8% (1,335.7) levels from the 4-5 wave is usually used for opening short positions.

Recommendations:

SELL 1331 SL 1336.5 TP1 1316 TP2 1300

SELL 1334 SL 1339.5 TP1 1316 TP2 1300

SELL 1335 SL 1340.5 TP1 1316 TP2 1300

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10653

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Flag" points to new local high
9/28/2016

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. The price faced a support at 1.1196, which led to a local consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.1181. If a pullback form this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1256, which is strengthened by the bearish trend line.

We’ve got a “Flag” pattern under the Moving Averages. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance at 1.1228 during the day. However, if a pullback from this level arrives, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.1190 – 1.1180.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10654

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" set up bullish correction
9/28/2016

The price is consolidating above the uptrend. Also, we’ve got a “Triple Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. At the same time, the price faced a resistance at 1.3022, so bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2979 in the short term. If we have a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.3089 – 1.3115.

There’s a “Flag” pattern, so the price is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average during the day. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an open door for an achievement of the 34 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10655

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [c] of E is about to start
9/28/2016

We’ve got a possible triangle in wave (Y), which is likely going to be continued. So, there’s an opportunity to have wave [c] of E in the short term. The main intraday target is 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which could reverse the price movement into a bearish direction.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave was probably ended yesterday. Previously, we’ve got a bullish impulse in wave [a]. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [c] of E, so we can have a new high very soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10658

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: events and levels to watch
9/28/2016

USD/JPY was supported this week by the levels just above the key psychological level of 100.00 yen, but stayed below 101.00 on the upside.

On the one hand, US data released on Tuesday were positive: consumer confidence improved and flash services PMI exceeded expectations. In addition, Japanese players bought US currency ahead of Japan’s September 30 interim book closing for the fiscal year. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer limited the greenback’s recovery by saying on Tuesday that the Fed shouldn’t raise interest rates too much.

On Wednesday we’ll hear more from the US central bank: Chair Janet Yellen will testify before a Congressional committee, though she’s expected to speak mainly about financial regulation. Speeches of other FOMC members are scheduled today as well: Loretta Mester, Esther George, James Bullard (voting members) and Charles Evans, Neel Kashkar (don’t vote on the Fed’s policy this year). According to Barclays, we’ll hear hawkish comments from Mester and George, while Evans should be dovish. Bullard is not expected to make comments on monetary policy.

If USD/JPY slides below 100.00, we’ll likely see it touch 99.00. Note that in this case Japanese officials will try verbal interventions to support the pair. More sellers should appear if the bulls attempt to get to 102.00 (2016 resistance line). Goldman Sachs notes that USD/JPY is now close to its fair value. As a result, the pair needs strong drivers to leave the current range.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10660

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls have failed
9/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1190, 1.1170; resistance – 1.1210/30

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1210; SL — 1.1230; TP1 — 1.1170; TP2 – 1.1130.

Reason: a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are falling down; narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10661

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: correction is completed
9/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2940; resistance – 1.3010.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.3000; SL — 1.3020; TP1 — 1.2940; TP2 — 1.2910.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; the prices are under the resistance of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10662

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: rising to the Cloud
9/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 100.60; resistance – 100.90, 101.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 100.60/70; SL — 100.40; TP1 — 101.40.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the horizontal lines of Indicator; the prices are over Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10663

 

[riki143]

Why the Euro falls and how long it will last
9/28/2016

For those looking for key market triggers, we suggest to keep an eye on Draghi’s and Yellen’s speeches later this day. Although neither of them are supposed to spend all their time on the interpretation of their monetary policies, there is a great possibility that these events will create a certain stir in the markets. Especially when the Fed is going to raise its interest rates this year and the ECB is determined to turn to its QE measures once again.

Beyond the aforementioned events, don’t forget about the Industrial and consumer confidence figures coming on Thursday. There might be a slight drop which may negatively affect the EUR. There will be another release on Friday – Eurozone Unemployment rate, which also doesn’t promise any improvements of the EUR exchange rate. So, we recommend you to protect your shares in portfolio ahead of this key releases.

The euro sank to $1.1218 from Monday's peak of $1.1279 as stock and bond prices in Deutsche Bank dropped to their record lows on worries regarding a $14 billion fine from the US Department of Justice.

Meanwhile, it is impossible to project how future data will influence the quotes or how the current market picture will respond to the Drahi’s speech and releases. We wouldn’t recommend to gamble on the euro improvement in a short term, when the Eurozone is struggling to go round of the potential pitfalls. But in perspective, especially if the ECB decides to embrace the Japanese yield targeting and there is no expansion of the QE in December, the Euro will appreciate again.

On the EUR/USD daily chart, we can observe the euro’s decline since Monday. There is a support line at 1,118 which can be broken out and strengthen the downward movement of the euro, if Yellen sounds hawkish at today’s meeting. The resistance line lies at (the 50% Fibonacci

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10664

 

[riki143]

Oil market imbalances: new threats from China
9/28/2016

According to the International Energy Agency, China is one of the major importers of crude oil in the world. For many years People’s Republic enjoyed the relatively low oil prices to stockpile crude for its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). Now, it was announced that Chinese reserves are almost full. This fact, in perspective, may wind down the major oil exporters’ derisive attempts to reach the deal on the oil production freeze to bring the prices back from their extreme lows.

Oil experts believe that China may seriously disrupt the commodity markets, once it decides to play its trump card – use or sell its sacred oil reserves in order to keep the oil prices at their current level. Because People’s Republic doesn’t become better off from the oil price hikes. Nobody knows exactly at which extend this may affect oil markets, as China prefers not to reveal the information about how many barrels it managed to preserve. But, if we refer to the level of Chinese oil consumption (which was around 11.5 million barrels a day in June, according to the IEA), we may conclude, that China’s SPR is not small.

Meanwhile, a significant slowdown in Chinese demand chills the spine of major producers. Once they lose such a good customer, they will have to shrink their profits considerably. And with the deal on the oil output reduction looming on the horizon, this perspective doesn’t make them happy.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10665

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP reversed from pivotal resistance level 0.8700
9/28/2016

EUR/GBP reversed from pivotal resistance level 0.8700
Next sell target - 0.8500
EUR/GBP recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 0.8700 (which also previously reversed the earlier sharp intermediate impulse wave (3)). The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.8700 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8700 stopped the 3r minor impulse wave 3 of the active intermediate impulse (5).

Given the strength of the resistance level 0.8700, EUR/GBP is expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.8500 (standing close to the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse form the start of September).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10666

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD reversed from support zone
9/28/2016

AUD/NZD reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.0700
AUD/NZD continues to rise – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support levels 1.0300, 1.0200 and the lower weekly Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3.

With the clear bullish divergence that can be seen on the weekly Stochastic indicator – AUD/NZD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target 1.0700 (which reversed the previous waves (2) and 2).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10667

 

[riki143]

GBP: a hint of recovery, but for how long?
9/28/2016

The EUR/GBP has fallen significantly since Monday as investors became anxious about how Deutsche Bank manages to unravel from its mounting problems. However, the pound’s advances are believed to be limited and the currency could easily crash from its peaks unless supportive data is published this Friday. Alternatively, if we don’t receive any signs of British economic recovery, the GBP may shoot again from its weekly highs.

The main stakeholders favor the first scenario which stands for the pound’s depreciation. Danske – the largest bank in Denmark, is long EUR/GBP from 0,8374, with a target at 0,9000 and stop at 0,8100. Its decision could be explained by various reasons. Danske believes that GBP will continue to depreciate with BoE’s monetary easing and considerable imbalances in the UK economy. It points out at the forecasts of the significant current deficit of approximately 6,4% of 2015 GDP. On top of this, Bank of England in its latest announcement made it clear that it is going to cut rates again this year, if its forecasts for growth are confirmed by the data. In addition, there is uncertainty about further EU-UK relationship is hovering in the air. The British government has yet not triggered the withdrawal process, striving to somehow prepare the vulnerable economy for the turbulent consequences.

Société générale also remains bearish of GBP and decides to open long position on EUR/GBP from 0,8620 with a target at 1,0000. According to the bank’s analysts, the EUR/USD may rise by 5 – 10% from its current position. There is a great potential for an upward movement, since there was a long period of consolidation and sideways trading.

CITI, unlike its colleagues, tends to support the second scenario. Recently, it has opened a short position on EUR/GBP from 0,8622, with a target at 0,8333 and a stop at 0,8750. CITI’s analysts noticed an evening star pattern on the technical EUR/GBP chart.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10668

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bears will be trying to consolidate their success
9/29/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, the "bulls" fulfilled targets which we had set in our last article and came closer to the very important level of 1.33. Quotes failed to go beyond the trade channel 1.298-1.33; this resulted in sales. Target of the red "Shark" pattern at 88.6% (1.286) has not yet fulfilled; it creates prerequisites for new attacks of "bears".

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the quotes will continue to rise if the "bulls" manage to return them into the margins of the rising trading channel. Rebound from the resistance at 1.314 will be the signal for opening short positions.

Recommendation: SELL 1.314 SL 1.3195 TP1 1.306 TP2 1.298 TP3 1.286.

CAD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10669

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie stumbled aross the wedge
9/29/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the rise towards 0.78 continues. There is a target 88.6% of the inverted pattern "Shark". Former resistance at 0.767 now serves as a key support. If the "bulls" manage to keep the quotes above this level, the chances of the further rise will increase significantly.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, formation of the expanding wedge pattern creates prerequisites for a correction. If the "bulls" fail to hold support at 0.767, the breach of 0.764 will increase the risk of the downfall towards 0.7585 and 0.755.?

Recommendations:
BUY 0,767 SL 0,7615 TP 0,78
SELL 0,764 SL 0,7695 TP1 0,7585 TP2 0,755

AUD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10670