Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" set up local correction
8/16/2016

We’ve got a new low here. Even though, bears are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2849 – 1.2795 as an intraday target. Only if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to see a local upward correction.

The price faced a support at 1.2877, so we’ve got a local consolidation. If we see a pullback from a resistance at 1.2933 – 1.2954, bears are likely going to deliver a new low. The next target is a support at 1.2849 – 1.2795.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10081

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, August 16
8/16/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 42 973 ? + 107 736 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1225(38?); 1.1255; 1.1278; 1.1306
Closest support levels 1.1185; 1.1158/41; 1.1118; 1.1091
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1225, with the target points at 1.1255 and 1.1278
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1185 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1158 and 1.1118


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 434 ? + 1 001 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2991; 1.3016; 1.3044; 1.3075
Closest support levels 1.2875; 1.2833; 1.2805; 1.2764(86?)
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2875, with target points at 1.2833 and 1.2805
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2991 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3016 and 1.3044


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 208 ? + 405 ?
Closest resistance levels 101.76; 101.94; 102.15; 102.40
Closest support levels 100.02 (critical); 99.72 (critical); 99.39; 99.03
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.02, with target points at 99.72 and 99.39
Alternative scenario Moving above 101.76 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 101.94 and 102.15


USD/CAD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10082

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave going to be continued
8/16/2016

The last upward price movement has changed the main wave count. It’s likely that wave is going to be continued. As you can see on the daily chart, a “Double Three” is possibly taking place with a “Triangle” in wave (Y). The nearest target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which could be a departure point for wave D of (Y).

The price has been rising since a zigzag in wave (b) was ended. We’ve got a bullish impulse in wave (?) of [y] in progress, which inner wave's structure points to an opportunity to have more bullish pressure during the day. The main target for wave (c) is 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=300).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10087

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls are free to move on
8/16/2016

The market has been rising since a pullback from the lower “Window” happened. The last candles are bullish and we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible to see an achievement of the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star” haven’t been confirmed yet, so bulls are on the way towards the nearest “Window”.

There’s a strong support by the 13 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Harami”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. However, there’s a possibility to have a “Last Engulfing” pattern, but again, we have to wait until a confirmation arrives. So, if there isn’t any confirmation of these patterns, bulls will be free to reach the “Window’s” upper side.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10088

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls are up to deliver only small correction
8/16/2016

The price has been falling down since Monday. Also, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which increased bearish pressure. So, the market is likely going to decline until any bullish pattern arrives. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a lower “Window”, which could act as a support.

We’ve got another “Three Methods” on the one-hour chart. However, the price achieved a resistance line, so there’s an opportunity to have some bullish patterns. If so, there’ll be a chance to see a local correction towards the 13 Moving Average, which is strong enough to help bears to move on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10089

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & FOMC Minutes: When will we see the greenback's bottom for mid-term?
8/17/2016

Today at 18:00 GMT will be released the FOMC minutes from July's meeting, where the interest rates were left unchanged. Those minutes should be acting as a catalyst for commodities and US dollar, as the last one has been showing weakness during last few days and that situation is helping to strengthen its major competitors (EUR, GBP, etc). There are no major expectations regarding the content of that meeting, but it can give us some hints of possible rate hikes for this year.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is reaching overbought conditions, as the pair had been rallying and it's fully consolidated above the 200 SMA. Next technical level is located in the 1.1327 price zone, where is placed the 100% Fibonacci extension, but a key resistance is at the 1.1379 level. Hawkish minutes should provide bullish momentum to the greenback and EUR/USD may slump to test Tuesday's low (1.1168) at least, while a very dovish should help the EUR to extend its gains against the dollar towards the 1.1379 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10091

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls begin and win
8/17/2016

On the daily EUR/USD chart attack of the bulls, as expected, was a success. The buyers managed to break above the upper border of the meduim-term bearish channel and return to the lower border of the long-term bullish channel. The euro approached 161.8% target according to AB=CD. The nearest support is around 1.1269 (50% Fibo of the latest significant bearish wave).

On H1 EUR/USD is trading within bullish channel. The previous resistance at 1.1209 is acting as support. The pair formed a "Spike and ledge" pattern. Break of resistance at 1.1289 will allow the bulls to continue moving up. Successful test of support at 1.1259 will allow the pair to move towards 1.1217, 1.1209 and 1.1184.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10092

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bears got scared
8/17/2016

On the daily USD/CAD chart bears managed to break below the lower border of the rising triangle. If they manage to hold ground, risks of decline to 1.274-1.276 ("Shark" pattern target + 61.8% Fibo of the last bullish wave) and 1.2624 (78.6%). The nearest serious resistance is in convergence area of 1.2956-1.2977.

On H1 within a downtrend channel the pair formed 1-2-3. Break of resistance at 1.2893 (correction high + 23.6% Fibo of the last bearish wave) will acvtivate "Crab" pattern and strengthen risks of growth towards 1.295. On the other hand, successful test of support at 1.2839 will allow the seller to continue the downtrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10093

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: under the Cloud
8/17/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2970; resistance – 1.3060, 1.3090.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.3020; SL — 1.3040; TP1 — 1.2900; TP2 — 1.2860.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but there is a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span A.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10094

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: correction to the lines
8/17/2016

Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.60/80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 100.60; SL — 100.80; TP1 — 100.00; TP2 — 99.00.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a market has corrected from the yesterday’s bottoms.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10095

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Thorn" led to bearish correction
8/17/2016

The price has broken the downward trend, but a “Thorn” arrived afterwards, so we’ve got a local correction in progress. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1235 – 1.1222 in the short term. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1349 later on.

There’s a consolidation above the broken trend. So, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1235 -1.1222 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.1324.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10096

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" stopped bulls
8/17/2016

We’ve got a new high, but bulls have been stopped by the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. Also, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to the current local correction. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.3015 – 1.2954. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels arrives, bulls will have a chance to achieve a resistance at 1.3119 – 1.3173.

The price faced a resistance at 1.3101, so we’ve got a consolidation on the one-hour chart. There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average, which is strong enough to reverse the price movement into an upward direction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10097

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, August 17
8/17/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 96 725 ? + 64 216 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1309; 1.1328; 1.1343; 1.1361
Closest support levels 1.1244; 1.1227; 1.1205; 1.1179
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1309, with the target points at 1.1328 and 1.1343
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1244 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1227 and 1.1205

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 2 150 ? + 1 104 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3110; 1.3147; 1.3171; 1.3197
Closest support levels 1.2995(82?); 1.2965; 1.2946; 1.2922
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3110, with the target points at 1.3147 and 1.3171
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2982 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2965 and 1.2946

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 1 942 ? + 1 284 ?
Closest resistance levels 101.28; 101.51; 101.79; 102.11
Closest support levels 100.09; 99.86(74?); 99.59; 99.39
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.09, with target points at 99.86 and 99.59
Alternative scenario Moving above 101.28 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 101.51 and 101.79

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 1 143 ? - 130 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2905; 1.2940; 1.2987; 1.3043
Closest support levels 1.2819/06; 1.2786; 1.2760; 1.2723
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.2819, with target points at 1.2786 and 1.2760
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2905 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.2940 and 1.2987

EUR JPY GBP CAD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10098

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave v of (c) is about to begin
8/17/2016

There’s a possible impulse in wave (c) of [y], which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Wave iv is likely going to end shortly, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement in wave v of (c). The main target is 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=300).

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave iv is developing a zigzag. Therefore, wave [C] of iv is likely going to reach 8/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to set up wave v of (c).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10099

 

[riki143]

SEB: how to trade EUR/USD on FOMC minutes
8/17/2016

Analysts at SEB propose an interesting trade strategy on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes (18:00 GMT). If EUR/USD rises in the next 3 hours after the release, then the specialists will buy the pair and close it in 24 hours. On the contrary, if EUR/USD declines in 3 hours after the release, sell the pair and hold position for 24 hours.

According to SEB, EUR/USD tends to continue moving in the same direction on the day after the release of the minutes.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10104

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" going to be tested again
8/17/2016

There’s a strong resistance by the “Window”, which led to form a “Shooting Star” and a “Tower” patterns, but their confirmation isn’t enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the “Window” once again in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible “Harami”, but today’s candle hasn’t finished yet. So, the closest “Window” is likely going to be tested again, which could bring more bearish patterns soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10105

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "High Wave" brought bullish correction
8/17/2016

There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. Also, we’ve got a small “Doji”, so the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average once again. If we get more bearish patterns on this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, but if a “Harami” finishes at the end of the day, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction.

We’ve got a “High Wave” at the local low, which led to an achievement of the 55 Moving Average, so there’re a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami” on this line. However, a confirmation of these patterns is a quite weak, so after a small correction bulls are likely try to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10106

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan: into the FOMC minutes release
8/17/2016

Forex traders are waiting for this week’s highpoint – release of the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) meeting minutes. There was no press conference after July meeting, so the market players want more information from the central bank. The recent comments from the Fed members were hawkish: Lockhart expects at least 1 rate hike in 2016 and is sure that US economic growth will accelerate; Dudley says rate hike in September is possible as US economy will be stronger in the second half of the year; Williams thinks that the Fed should raise rates this year. It seems that the Fed wants the market to price in higher possibility of rate hikes. In July statement the regulator pointed out that risks to America’s economic outlook have diminished. All in all, the risk is that the statement will be more hawkish. So far traders didn’t believe the hawkish mood of the Fed speakers, the question is will they be swayed by the hawkish Fed minutes? Technical picture shows that the market’s is building ground for new sells of American currency.

Trading plan for the next day will largely depends on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting. Analysts at SEB Bank have a strategy how to trade EUR/USD after the FOMC release. I can add that at the moment of writing EUR/USD is consolidating above support at 1.1260 and 1.1235. Technically the recent move to the upside looks unfinished. Targets are at 1.1376 (February high) and 1.1405 (Fibo extension target). At the same time, hawkish minutes can send the pair to July-August support line around 1.1150.

GBP/USD retraced about 38% of Tuesday’s gains. Tuesday’s close above 1.3000 was good and there’s technical potential for recovery to 1.3100. Yet decline below 1.2990 on hawkish Fed will bring the pound to 1.2940, where the currency should find support. Further support will be at 1.2900 and 1.2850. Data from the UK released this week was positive. On Thursday the UK will publish retail sales data (08:30 GMT) and the forecast is positive.

USD/JPY closed on Tuesday below the key level of 100.70 (50% Fibo of the 2011-2015 advance) – bearish sign. According to the weekly pivot points, the pair’s at the bearish territory. Resistance is at 101.15 (daily high, previous support line. Close below this level will mean continuation of the downtrend and will likely lead to another attempt of the bears to test levels below 100.00. If hawkish Fed hits the wires, we’ll see a recovery to 101.50 and probably to 102.30/80.

The bulls failed to push AUD/USD above 0.7755 for the third time. A selloff to 0.7615 followed. This is the former 2016 resistance line, which now acts as support. Watch where the pair closes on Wednesday – it will provide you with key hints on the pair’s future dynamics. Break below 0.7600 on hawkish Fed will open the way down to 0.7630 (lower border of uptrend channel, 38.2% Fibo). If the pair manages to stay above this important level. We’ll see consolidation in the 0.7600/0.7700 area in the coming days. Note that Australia will release labor market data early during the Asian session on Thursday.

EUR JPY AUD GBP

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10107

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD ahead of UK Retail Sales: Will the Pound remain under bearish pressure?
8/18/2016

Today at 08:30 GMT will be released a key indicator for the UK economy, as the retail sales will be the market mover during early European session. During June, the indicator posted a worst-than-expected decline to -0.9%, but for July's outcome, analysts are expecting a rise to 0.2% on it's monthly reading. Regarding the yearly basis' data, retails sales could post a very slight decline to 4.2%, according to the market consensus.

GBP traders will be paying attention to this data, as the recent downside pressure on Sterling should make it to fall towards post-Brexit and multi-year low, at the 1.2794 level. The GBP/USD pair is consolidated below the 200 SMA at H4 chart and that moving average is acting as dynamic resistance. If the pair manages to break it to the upside, then we should see a rally to the 1.3438 level, at least in the mid-term. However, our key support to the downside remains located at 1.2794 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10108

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound bared its teeth
8/18/2016

On the daily GBP/USD chart the inability of the bears to break below the convergence area at 1.289-1.295 and reach 78.6% target of Gartley pattern led to correction. The bulls returned the pair to the lower border of the previous consolidation range. Successful test of resistance at 1.3075 will help the pound strengthen towards the upper border of the triangle.

On H1 GBP/USD broke above resistance at 1.3071-1.3075 will set off the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target is near 1.332. On the contrary, if the bullish attack bulls fails, bears will have an opportunity to pulls the pair down to the target of green shark at 1.288. The first step will be successful test of support at 1.299.

More:
[URLhttps://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10109]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10109[/URL]