Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the market get bogged down in a flat morass
8/2/2016

There’s a flat between the nearest resistance at 1.3289 and support at 1.3116. So, the price is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. However, if a pullback from this line arrives, then another downward movement will be on the table.

The price is moving along the Moving Average lines. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.3148 – 1.3116 during the day. Nevertheless, bulls are still in the game, which means an achievement of the next resistance at 1.3313 – 1.3336 is a still possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9877

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" has been waiting for bulls
8/2/2016

There’s a bullish rally, which is taking place on the four-hour chart, so we haven’t got any reversal pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to reach the nearest “Window”, where some bearish pattern could be formed. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a strong support by the 55 & 89 Moving Average lines. The last candles are bullish, so an achievement of the 144 Moving Average is a still on the table.

The last consolidation was finally ended by the huge white candle. Also, there’s an “Engulfing” at the local low. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens later on, there’ll be a chance to see a bearish correction towards the 21 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9886

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Gravestone Doji" as a sign of bulls weakness
8/2/2016

The market has been falling down since a “Shooting Star” formed at the last high. Moreover, we’ve got the second “Shooting Star” at the local maximum, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. As we can see on the Daily chart, here isn’t any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible further bearish steps.

We’ve got a “Gravestone Doji”, so the price found a lodgement under the nearest “Window”. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on until any bullish pattern forms.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9888

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reached sell target 102.00
8/2/2016

USD/JPY reached sell target 102.00
Next sell target – 100.00
USD/JPY continues to decline – following the earlier breakout of the support level 102.00, which was set in our earlier forecast as the likely downward target for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level is likely to accelerate the active indeterminate impulse wave (3), which is a part of the primary downward impulse ? from the end of May.

USD/JPY is likely to continue to fall in the direction of the next sell target at the major round support level 100.00 (which reversed the previous wave B and (1)). Expect the pair to correct up after reaching the shttp://www.moneymakergroup.com/Forex-News-Trade-Recomme-t468159.html&view=findpost&p=1109720162#entry1109720162upport level 100.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9890

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD continues strong uptrend
8/2/2016

NZD/USD continues strong uptrend
Next buy target - 0.7300
NZD/USD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which stared earlier – when the pair revered up from the support zone lying between the round support level 0.7000, 0.6980 (previous sell target), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward price impulse 1 from the end of May.

The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to the sharp intermediate impulse wave (C) from the end of May. NZD/USD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 0.7300 (which stopped earlier impulse wave 1 in July).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9891

 

[riki143]

US Dollar & ADP Employment Change: A support for the greenback is coming?
8/3/2016

The greenback is still showing weakness across the board, as the recent US data had shown very negative numbers for the national economy's improvement on a quarterly basis and today at 12:30 GMT will be released the ADP employment change data, where the analysts are expecting a slight decline from 172K to 171K on the July's reading. It should be noted that the latest five releases were mixed, so we'll see how the numbers will be ahead of Friday's US NFP.

Our technical view for US Dollar Index at H4 chart is still bearish, as the index has been doing a consolidation below the 200 SMA. However, we're seeing that it's near to the 61.8% retracement level of the move from 93.01 to 97.59. A rebound above it can drive the DXY towards the 95.97 level as the next critical resistance. However, with a weaker-than-expected ADP reading, we could see a breakout below the 94.97 level, towards the 94.34 as the next south's target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9892

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD keeps pushing higher
8/3/2016

On the daily chart one may see that the bulls managed to break resistance of 1.1175 and keep moving towards the 88.6% target of the "Bat" pattern (1.1370). Here's also the upper border of the rising trend channel. The level of 1.1175 is acting as support (previous resistance and 38.2%Fibo of the last descending wave).

On H1 EUR/USD is forming "3 Indians" pattern . It may realize if the pair falls below the minimum of the second bar of the Indian (1.1170). Here's the middle of the previous short-term consolidation range that allows us to speak about potential "Fakeout-Shakout" pattern.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9893

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY is one step away from 100.00
8/3/2016

On the daily chart USD/JPY keeps moving towards the lower border of the bearish trend channel. It corresponds to 127.2% of the "Shark" pattern target (98.00). Target of AB=CD at 224% mentioned in the previous article is reached. Look for resistance near 102.69.

On H1 USD/JPY the angle of the downtrend points at the strength of the "bears". The pair entered convergence area of 100.21-100.84. The break below these levels will open the way down towards 98. The nearest resistance levels lie at 101.82 and 102.68.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9894

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Flag" calling bulls to deliver new high
8/3/2016

As we can see on the four-hour chart, a bullish movement is taking place. The price found a resistance at 1.1235, which led to the current local consolidation. So, buyers are likely going to move on, which makes possible an achievement of the nearest trend line. If we see a pullback from the trend, a downward correction becomes possible.

There’s a consolidation between the nearest resistance at 1.1235 and support at 1.1196. Also, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to move up towards the closest resistance. However, bears will probably try to deliver a correction afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9897

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" highlight possibility of more bullish pressure
8/3/2016

We’ve got a correction in progress. The price has already faced a resistance at 1.3339, which brought a local decline into the market. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. However, if a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish movement towards a support at 1.3226 – 1.3116.

There’s a “Pennant”, so the price is likely going to test a resistance at 1.3400 – 1.3445 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.3313 – 1.3289.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9898

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound feels great
8/3/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3290; resistance – 1.3370, 1.3480.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.3290; SL — 1.3270; TP1 — 1.3370; TP2 — 1.3480.

Reason: a bullish Cloud with growing range; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a new highs for last three weeks.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9899

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the bullish mood
8/3/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7560; resistance – 0.7620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7620; TP2 — 0.7680.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B are growing up; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen is temporarily cancelled, but there is a strong support of them.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9900

 

[riki143]

Key option levels: August 3rd
8/3/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 28 580 ↓ + 71 490 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.1251; 1.1269; 1.1289; 1.1319
Closest support levels 1.1209; 1.1179; 1.1140; 1.1095
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1209, with target points at 1.1179 and 1.1140
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1251 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1269 and 1.1289

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 290 ↑ + 955 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3364; 1.3378; 1.3399; 1.3433
Closest support levels 1.3297; 1.3275; 1.3251; 1.3224
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell pair below 1.3297, with target points at 1.3275 and 1.3251
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3364 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3378 and 1.3399

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 6 241 ↑ + 1 273 ↑
Closest resistance levels 101.48; 101.82; 102.24; 102.69
Closest support levels 100.69; 100.54; 100.27; 100.02
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.48, with the target points at 101.82 and 102.24
Alternative scenario Moving below 100.69 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.54 and 100.27

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 735 ↑ + 407 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3134; 1.3186; 1.3257; 1.3339
Closest support levels 1.3058; 1.3024; 1.2968; 1.2897
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3134, with the target points at 1.3186 and 1.3257
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3058 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3024and 1.2968

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9901

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave v of (c) successfully ended
8/3/2016

We’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which points to a possible ending of wave 4 in a form of a “Double Three”. Therefore, wave of 5 is likely going to be started, so we should keep an eye 2/8 Murrey Math Level, which could be the next bearish target.

Wave v of (c) ended on 8/8 Murrey Math Level, so we’ve got a pullback from there. However, it’s better to wait a little bit until the price breaks 6/8 Murrey Math Level. If it happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have further decline in wave .

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9902

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: bears going to deliver wave (i)
8/3/2016

It seems like wave [ii] has been ended in a form of a zigzag, so there’s a possibility to have a downward impulse in wave (i). The nearest bearish target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If the price breaks this level, bears will likely going to deliver a deeper impulse.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a “Diagonal Triangle” in wave v of (c). Therefore, wave (i) is likely going to move on. The main bearish target is 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9903

 

[riki143]

NZD/JPY continues daily downtrend
8/3/2016

NZD/JPY continues daily downtrend
Next sell target - 72.00
NZD/JPY has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the intermediate downward impulse (3) from March. The active impulse wave 3 started earlier in July – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 76.60, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December.

NZD/JPY is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 72.00 (which reversed the previous (b)-wave at the start of July, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9904

 

[riki143]

CHF/JPY falling inside sharp impulse wave
8/3/2016

CHF/JPY falling inside sharp impulse wave
Next sell target - 102.20
CHF/JPY continues to fall inside the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3), which began previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 107.70 (earlier buy target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 109.00. This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the sharp daily down channel from March.

CHF/JPY is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the powerful support level 102.20 (which stopped the previous waves (1) and B).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9905

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for August 4

US dollar index: DXY recovered a bit, but remains under bearish pressure after breaking below important support in the 95.40 area on Tuesday. According to ADP report, US private sector added 179K new jobs in July and the reading for June was also revised higher to 176K. However, dollar bulls are still discouraged by the previous weak American data and US ISM services PMI came out at 55.5 below the consensus forecast of 56.0. On Thursday America will release unemployment claims (12:30 GMT) and factory orders (14:00 GMT).

EUR/USD: The pair met resistance of the 100-day MA at 1.1235 and retreated below 1.1200 breaking the short-term uptrend. Support is at 1.1180/70. Below this level the euro will correct down to 1.1120/00. This is our main scenario. There will be news of low importance in the euro zone’s economic calendar: ECB economic bulletin and retail PMI. On the upside further resistance is located at 1.1285 (2016 resistance line).

GBP/USD: The pair consolidated in the 1.3365/00 area ahead of the Bank of England’s Super Thursday – the day, when the central bank announces its monetary policy decision and releases the minutes of the meeting, as well as its quarterly inflation report (11:00 GMT). In addition, Governor Mark Carney will conduct a press conference (11:30 GMT). The BOE is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, but the move is already completely priced in GBP/USD. Pound met resistance at the top of the short-term rising channel. Decline below 1.3300 should meet support at 1.3250 and 1.3215.

USD/JPY: The pair found support at 100.70, but remained near 3-week lows. The picture remains bearish. There are no reasons for a reversal to the upside, just a correction is possible. We’ll be looking for entry points to add to the short position at 101.80. Other resistance levels are at 102.50 and 103.50. Below 100.80 the next target will be at 100.00.

AUD/USD: The pair was stopped by April-July resistance line in the 0.7635. However, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate cut, there was no big selloff in Aussie. Australia will release retail sales at 01:30 GMT, the forecast is positive. AUD/USD is expected to consolidate in the 0.7600/0.7550.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9906

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: new yearly low is coming because of "Shooting Star"
8/4/2016

There’s a correction inside the main bearish trend. Also, the price faced a resistance on the 34 & 55 Moving Average lines. Moreover, there’s a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has been confirmed by the “Three Line Strike” pattern. However, we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local low, but its confirmation hasn’t arrived yet, so the price is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average once again.

We’ve got a reversal “Shooting Star” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. At the same time, if we see any bullish pattern on the nearest “Window”, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Harami” at the local high, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, bears will probably try to test the closest support line, which could bring any kind of bullish pattern.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9907

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to break the last low
8/4/2016

There's a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has been confirmed strongly. So, the price is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”.

We've got a confirmed bullish “Harami” at the last low, but the nearest “Window” could act as a resistance. If so, the current downward price movement is likely going to be continued. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bearish and we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible the further sellers steps.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9908